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INDU

Time and Price at the 78.6Looking at the es and time with fibonacci on a x axis, price seems to have a reaction at the 27.2 - 61.8 - 78.6 fib ratios. Using the October 2014 low to May 2015 high as anchors for the x axis, from observation the 27.2 - 61.8- 78.6 have made alternating highs and lows. From October 2014 to May 2015 the 27.2 was a low, 61.8 a high and the 78.6 a low. From the May high to date, the 1.272 was a high, 1.618 was a low with the 1.786 pointing to November 3rd for a possible area where price and time could have a reaction looking left of the chart. Also the time x axis 78.6 and price y axis 78.6 meeting on november 3rd could produce a reaction for price. Price and time meeting to create a reversal. I will use a stop to show me I am wrong and not a max pain stop. This could all be bs, I don´t know.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by elp
6
IS THE S&P500 FOLLOWING YEARS 1965-1966? IF SO SHORTOctober 2014 - October 2015 coppied and pasted on to years 1965-1966 correction rally and correction. Here is a possible fractal where current price could be following or rhyme with years 1965-1966. Both periods had an initial correction (october 2014) both periods had a powerful rally out of the correction lows that made a similar % move and time move from lows to highs. Both periods seem to have made a wedge into highs. From highs to the August 24th lows both periods made a similar % drop and took a similar amount of time. Current price is following the sideways chopzone of year 1966 to date. If current price can not break out of the chopzone where year 2015 continues to follow the year 1966 correction. I would believe towards the end of this week into next week the S&P500 could make a final top before dropping another 16% if year 2015 continues to follow year 1966. I could be 100% wrong! I also have a bullish view where if price breaks out of highs or finds support in the chopzone the S&P500 could go on to make new highs or test highs. I don´t know so I am keeping an open mind to bull and bear setups. If the short continues to trade I will look to sell the ES with a stop to show me I am wrong and not max pain. Best to your trading!
YShort
by elp
3
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: 3M RISKS TO TEST 10-YEAR TREND3M price is in a very tricky situation... On long term basis it failed its 5-year (260 weeks) uptrend test by falling below the 1st upper standard deviation from 5-year mean. It's 10-year uptrend is still intact, as price is trading above upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year (520 weeks) mean. On short term price is in downtrend on quarterly basis (below 1st st deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean, which is now allinged with upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean) Price has also fallen below upper 1st standard deviation from 1-year (264 days) mean, risking downtrend on 1-year basis. Thus if 3M continues to trade below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (149) and below 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean (144.75), it risks to retest the 10-year trend border, marked by the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (130)
NYSE:MMMShort
by Killy_Mel
2
Dow Jones Industrials: Downtrend until the 14thLevels on chart, estimated time for the downtrend conclusion is August 14th. I'll be monitoring the support levels below to go long. The boxes represent the earnings season range and I plotted the 50% level, as depicted in Tim West's publications. You can clearly see the reaction to it in the chart. I also added the 66, 253, 50 and 200 EMAs as well as the options expirations support and resistance lines indicator. Going short now is a bit late, so I'll wait for the long entry. If the fear spike support fails to hold, the result could be an extended decline, but it's not likely to happen yet. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:US30Long
by IvanLabrie
16
SPX Good RR Setup for a short. I'm not implying the spx rally is over or a top is in. But looking at the channel the spx has been trading in since 2011 lows, there is not much room to the upside at the moment and believe by observation there is more room for the spx to pullback. My plan is to sell the hwb from highs to lows as long as it acts as resistance with a tight stop. Last week was the first time the 61.8 short held as resistance. For the whole month of February there was no resistance, last week it showed up. If it continues, looking to sell resistance. If the market rallies back up to highs which it could, I would look to sell into strength with my stop above the top channel. IMO it's a good rr trade and better than the long at this moment. I would look to take off the trade ar 2020-2012 could even see the spx trade back to 1968.
FX:SPX500Short
by elp
13
Market Valuations using DJIA, GDP and Corporate ProfitsHere is a long term view of a few ratios that may help to view current market valuations. I used the DJIA in order to get a longer time series. It’s not my preference as market capitalization is not accurately portrayed via the index but I still think these ratios have value. So how is the current market valued? Bears can point to GDP to market capitalization (approximated by blue chart) and make a valid point that the current market is fully valued and approaching overvalued. Bulls can point to broad market P/E levels (approximated by green chart) and make a valid claim that stocks are undervalued. To reconcile those two charts we can look at the third chart in red, profits to GDP. The current recovery from 2008 has been dramatically different than any previous recovery due to the explosive growth in corporate profits while employment growth, wage growth, and GDP have all been tepid. This growth in profits is the primary fuel for the strong market rally off the 2008 lows. Those looking at other traditional economic measures of the economy have been left surprised at this market move. But ultimately it is has been and will continue to be all about the corporate profits. Profits to GDP are currently the highest level since at least 1947 (length of this data series available). Other reports with more data say the 1920’s. Is there limit to which corporate profits can reach as a percent of GDP? If so, what would be a catalyst for this ratio to move lower (GDP outpaces profit growth). A stronger dollar, energy profits collapsing, wage pressures? Or is possible profits remain at an elevated level to GDP. Summary: Using market valuations to predict/determine market turning points is largely a waste of time as overvalued stocks can become more overvalued and the same with undervalued. The period from 1955-1965 is great example of stocks remaining highly valued relative to GDP and the period of 1975-1985 is a great example of the opposite. One thing becomes clear looking at these charts. Profit to GDP is at unprecedented levels. The reason why is likely a combination of multiple factors, however, whether this trend continues, levels out, or declines will likely be the most important factor to stock prices over the next couple years.
I
by SMP99
4
Down Jones $INDU 100 Year Mega Trend Bull MarketBetting against the USA can be bad for your portfolio longer term. Bias is a killer in all time frames. Many would be "smart guys" have debated the end of this mega trend based on their so called understanding of the US debt situation or other "urgent crisis" they are sure is going to bring about the end. All this while being too myopic to zoom out for real context to price and see that all that dribble has been meaningless. Get all the concerns over political party, geopolitical events, or fiscal worry out of your minds or you will be unable to see the very simple reality in front of you. There is only one entity that is leading this nation & its not a Repubican or a Democrat. The boss in every business I've ever worked in was the one with the money writing checks!! Only entity in the USA doing this is the Federal Reserve our Central Bank. As long as they will keep printing paper real assets will continue to reprice in terms of an ever increasing medium of exchange. Thats about all you need to know so keep it simple and skip the side show on TV. There are a lot of "experts" & even more opinions out there but very little understanding of how this whole machine really works. K.I.S.S. and remember the trend is your friend don't bet against it no matter the rational you are sold.
ILong
by Kazonomics
15