SHLO Weekly Reviewkeeping an eye on this one, an undervalued parts manufacturing company specializing in anti-noise and anti-vibrations with solid financials and established in the early 90's.... possible cup and handle?
Industrials
Long DCI following base break!About to go long DCI Donaldson Company due to the breakout with volume of the small base, which is also a new 52-week high. Also part of a strong sector. Target is open-ended.
HAL Daily chart viewHalliburton ($46.51) looks like maybe it is reversing trend for the summer; the russia-saudi deal helped I believe (which may have led to the spike in volume); the stock is bumping up on support and broke through resistance at 46.38... I think it is safe to look for a move above $50-$53 if the stock breaks its next resistance at 47.79; I think I am taking the bet
HRI - Flat Double Zig-ZagFlat double zig-zag looking to launch this back into 50+ share territory. Look to go long at break of 50 using the Elliot structure as your guide you.
Dow Jones Transportation Average Hinting Of Trouble AheadWe normally don't publish equity ideas but this chart is worth noting as it directly relates to the U.S. economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are highly correlated for many reasons as you can imagine. A quick look at the chart and you will see the current divergence in that correlation. Simple said, if an economy is not producing many goods than there is less need for shipping, indicating the economy is slowing or struggling. Historically the Dow Jones Transportation Average leads the Dow Jones Industrial Average and at the very least lends confirmation to the Industrial Average.
DOW INDUSTRIALS - % STOCKS > KEY EARNINGS LEVELI've been doing this analysis by hand since April 28, 2015 in a spreadsheet at Google.
4/28/2015 1:30 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18111 17960
4/29/2015 9:44 AM 40.00% 60.00% 18083 17975 PFE, MRK reported
4/29/2015 2:26 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18055 17975
4/30/2015 9:55 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17968 17970
4/30/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 17930 17977
4/30/2015 3:54 PM 40.00% 60.00% 17876 17977
5/1/2015 10:30 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17977 17977
5/4/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 18102 18052 Apple rally faded right near KEY LEVEL.
5/4/2015 3:50 PM 43.30% 56.70% 18070 18038
5/5/2015 4:00 PM 40% 60% 17928 18039
5/6/2015 11:40 AM 40% 60% 17,865.67 18039 Biggest spread from the KEY LEVEL I've seen. Bond mkt and US DOLLAR tumbling
I've also added "% of stocks above their 50 day moving average" since I think that might approximate this indicator and to just see how helpful it is and to learn.
I've noticed so far that the market has traded quite closely to the KEY LEVEL so far.
Note we are right on the 66-day moving average, which is 1-quarter of data, which certainly is the time frame of the distance between earnings reports.
I put "short" on here because the DOW is below the KEY EARNINGS LEVEL of 18039.
How you want to trade it is up to you: I think you can execute right "at" the KEY level by selling a rally up to it and risking 1 average range. The target might be just 1 average range also. That is just one method of trading this. You could certainly trade this any way you see fit. The key is knowing if the market is being "accumulated" or "distributed" and as it is now, it is being "distributed" since we are below the average KEY LEVEL. It shows that people are disappointed with the earnings reports and the forecasts for the coming quarter.
Cheers.
Tim 12:02PM EST May, 6, 2015
