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Inefficiency

GBP JPY - Final push to 155Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See our previous analysis here: Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalance write up The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Taking into account correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1.40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBPUSD LongsGBPUSD high & low timeframes are providing a potential long position for the coming week. What we have here is a market that is trapped between two large psychological levels - 1.4100 & 1.3800. From a bounce at 1.3800 the market has been shifting direction from downside to upside with its momentum and a lot of liquidity sitting above 1.4000 could draw prices higher this week. I am looking for the market to move over 1.4000 and potentially push an additional 100 pips into 1.41000. Right now I am focusing on the demand zone & key level 1.38750 for my entry zone to bring this market higher. Trade safe & manage risk as always.
Long
by jeafxtrading
3
US OIL - to mid 2021 [Overall bullish]Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish , this is a game of patience. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original analysis here; to capture the extent of the move. The US oil original analysis; December 2020. - The original monthly zones hit towards March to May 2021. This has been successfully achieved now. Monthly Imbalances Price has currently filled a monthly imbalance, with a new fresh imbalance zone awaiting price action to occur. The probabilities are strong here for price to enter into this zone, purely based on the candle wick which has been confirmed from February 2021. The wick on the lower time frames has provided evidence of this reaching a fractal point at $59.20 per barrel. . Price had created an engineered low, for the shakeout of the sellers who are looking for sells of the fresh "high". Note, on the daily, the trend line is well respected with the three soldier candle pattern 'identified as a sell off", however, this is a perfect opportunity to add a long. The monthly imbalance - is still showing the respective low as explained above. The price of oil has continued to show it's strength reaching the next liquidity wick fill at $66.34-54. Now, the next important imbalance zone is yet to be breached and tested. Price can now create a fresh test of the monthly chart, applying as to what the structure on the monthly is showing is, the price can have a high probability of moving back to $60.00 - $62 zone to create a solid rally base rally formation setup. Bearish monthly imbalance scenario: Where price is now entering a fresh imbalance - this is a great opportunity to close out long positions which have been held in a shorter run up or simply close out profits to de-risk and transfer the risk by offsetting shorts. Why? - Simply put, fresh zone is a clear opportunity for the imbalance to occur. The imbalance will be closed out and the market structure will offer a new opportunity. Price can dramatically collapse again with a strong supply, however where price is still showing "long". Oil can be sold off to weekly imbalances or in a worst case scenario to the below Blue, monthly imbalance. Weekly Imbalances The Weekly imbalance provides a good indicator her where price can create a weekly supply or sellers imbalance as the zone is a fresh touch. The probability of price retracing from the newly created high, is a strong possibility. However, as there is a zone higher, Oil can still use this imbalance as a base, to create strong price action floating within a range of $67-60 per Barrel. Look into the smaller time frames for pivot points assessing the risk of entering a trade. Eight hour Imbalance Below are the eight hour imbalances, where a great structure has taken place to provide an opportunity for the base to built upon. The imbalance here will attract the short sellers and scalpers and hedged sellers to cover longs. However the 50% retrace zone aligns perfectly to a strong indicator of where Fibonacci lines mock up a solid alert to monitor the minor inefficiency taking place here. The main wick of interest here - is located at 0.705,for two reasons, one being which touches the bullish trendline - while this co-insides with the inefficiency, this zone is a great area to be present for a engineered fractal for longs. Daily imbalance - for a simplified view Again the imbalance of the monthly aligns with the daily low, so take into account here a inflow opportunity for the building up of a buying imbalance at around $59-60.XX Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash. 2020-2021. We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. UK Crude, Vs Brent - correlation Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Below is the inflation ETF vs Oil - providing some crucial cause and effect over the future supply of Oil and where price is overall moving towards, again use inefficiency in the market. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD 0.80 achieved! Now check the imbalance to shortHello traders and analysts. 0.80 target has been hit! Congratulations holders! Below is our setup for the pair AUD USD at the current position. The investment strategy is neutral - while a short position is held at exactly 0.80 tap, the possibility for the price to still reach the liquidity engineer a higher low or... the sell off begins. Watch this space. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. . The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the .80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. End of 2021 scenario hypothesis: However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios - 1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80, where price will then encounter a sell off from the imbalance or use this is a mid way imbalance and continue to hold to 2022 around or above 0.80+ 2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie!! Remember any bearish news on the world will see a rush to the USD, however with the US attempting to remove the safehaven asset for investors, expect a good move for the Aussie to see bullish movements. Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. AUD USD - weekly time frame imbalances The weekly imbalances in place have provided Track the original idea: November 2020 Update using the daily timeframe Multi time frame analysis; AUD USD - Daily AUD USD - 4 hour Fibonacci extension target is 0.80 at -0.786 Current sale to hedge the longs SPX vs AUD USD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish, this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish. With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Using Yields: Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
BTC to retrace, load up the buysHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour What now? Well price is going to retrace to our daily zone or weekly zone where the imbalances are in place - the volatility will be high of course as price falls sharply but if the imbalances are hit, then patience is now the key frame for further buys. The zone is $48,000. Here was the previous chart tracking our progress: Looking at the chart from a technical standpoint - the sell off begins with a new equal high peak or a higher high. We will expect price to pullback engineering liquidity to shakeout buyers and free up the market players - using the 4 hour, there is a possibility the 50 - 61.8% retracement showing a good imbalance zone. We will not look to buy at this moment due to the fact price is working well and needs the activity to free up in order to consolidate. Crypto in our eyes works like rocket fuel , in the sense of bursting out - tailing off and crashing - while most FX pairs do this - crypto is still establishing multiple fresh zones both in fractal senses and adoption will have a momentum here if you look from a fundamental view. Fundamental Update - E Musk has been tweeting and purchased $1.5bn of bitcoin and accepting payments of BTC for Tesla products, next up is JPM and credit card companies? Past analysis; This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement. What did we see - while patiently waiting for the imbalance to hit the above image, shows the Fibonacci on a daily - whereby we used our previous retracement back in the end of January, this confirmed to us the buyers were still in control. Inefficiency 1 zone was valid. This is now a new buy zone for future reference. Take a look at a 4 hour view for bitcoin. Previous purchase zone: Here was our latest buy position - based on the previous idea January 28th 2021 Examples of bitcoin back in 2015: Further analysis; Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price. This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future. See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015. Here is a 2016 example; To see this in full - click the idea below. The analysis provides sufficient detail Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3
US OIL - snipe your profit targetsHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is an update to our original view back in December 2020 - for the start of 2021. Our imbalances are clearly identified on the chart - where the blue imbalance which relates to the monthly zones - where little price action is needed but identified on the higher time frames to provide insights as to where the fractals in the market are taking place. There imbalance price has previously broken through builds upon the support for Oil demand. Based on what merit? We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. Looking for an entry long term in 2021? Based on the orange trendline - we would be looking to buy further at $48.00 where price may look to establish a lower high. If* this zone is broken, the correction will deepen with $46-48 looking to be a buying area. price has now completed this zone New buy zone: $55.00 if a pullback breaks our blue trendline on a daily channel. This zone is still valid. Due to global recovery optimism, the demand is still very much in control with restricted access and output cuts still in play, the OPEC + JMMC both have not made any recommendations in the January meeting. Commodities here will still be in the balance upon economies re-igniting. Here is the chart from January 17, 2021 Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
6
Bitcoin 50k! - Congrats holdersHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily grey = 4hour pink = 1 hour Here was the previous chart tracking our progress: Looking at the chart from a technical standpoint - the sell off begins with a new equal high peak or a higher high. We will expect price to pullback engineering liquidity to shakeout buyers and free up the market players - using the 4 hour, there is a possibility the 50 - 61.8% retracement showing a good imbalance zone. We will not look to buy at this moment due to the fact price is working well and needs the activity to free up in order to consolidate. Crypto in our eyes works like rocket fuel , in the sense of bursting out - tailing off and crashing - while most FX pairs do this - crypto is still establishing multiple fresh zones both in fractal senses and adoption will have a momentum here if you look from a fundamental view. Fundamental Update - E Musk has been tweeting and purchased $1.5bn of bitcoin and accepting payments of BTC for Tesla products. Past analysis; This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement. What did we see - while patiently waiting for the imbalance to hit? The above image, shows the Fibonacci on a daily - whereby we used our previous retracement back in the end of January, this confirmed to us the buyers were still in control. Inefficiency 1 zone was valid. This is now a new buy zone for future reference. Here was our latest buy position - based on the previous idea January 28th 2021 The first analysis to show the imbalances upon a smaller scale: Further analysis; Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price. This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future. See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015. To see this in full - click the idea below. The analysis provides sufficient detail Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
SPX 500 - to 4000+Hello traders and analysts, Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see our previous idea - where 3920 for the SPX has been achieved, with an explanation as to why. The idea which lead to where we are now using Fibonacci from the latest correctional move. The main idea for 2021: Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est Why the previous Extension zones fell in line with inefficiency 1 . Price has followed the path prediction thus far to a almost perfection at this moment in time. The reason for this is using the daily, weekly and monthly. The probability of the imbalances remain clearer. SPX500 vs the VIX The Vix to be maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur. This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe. Vix update: SPX vs Emerging: What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility. The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX. The commodities such as Copper, Silver, Gold and Platinum will now provide a solid buy opportunity now the demand will grow. The second image shows the return % of the fund upon a scale against the SPX on a daily chart close. Fundamental failures, to ensure imbalances are made clear for the bullish scenario. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11. 01 .2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Last comparison; Inflation ETF vs SPX500. If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio, the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
4
GBP JPY - Bulls strolling to the next targetHello traders and analysts. Below is our setup for the pair GBP JPY. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance See the original idea for the 2021 bullish outlook, Weekly timeframe Four hour chart We had a falling wedge on the four hour time frame, where price had bounced off the high, created a correctional sell pattern, however price has managed to sell off to 144.50. Price broke through with the continuation pattern and is now heading towards the weekly imbalance at 148 highs. We are currently in the weekly imbalance zone now, between 145.8 to 148.00. Fundamentals at play With the successful Brexit transition and recovery from the Risk-off scenario from Brexit, the commodity hedge from Gold will not push higher. While the vaccination and cases remain a concern for the UKs long term success in the economy opening up, the GBP has been seen rising and looks set to continue with a target of 143 poised to be filled by the bulls. XAU USD & GBP JPY are safe havens so expect the volatility within the pairs to remain strong as short term sentiment turns sour. From a Fibonacci prospective: We took the low and plotted the high. We expected the previous wick to be filled as the order blocks in GJ are volatile so price and hit a fresh zone and reverse very quickly . The extension targets below signify our areas of longer term profit taking. At the time of the previous idea - the positional trades still hold and require a quick overview high level to ensure the trade is still running to target. The overall bullishness from GBP is due to the JPY with an imbalance on the weekly (see the key) above where price is approaching a purple weekly zone between 147+. We are currently in a weekly zone between 143-145 whereby price has been creating a steep incline however has had healthy price engineering. Keep in mind the imbalances where price can retrace back to 145 (weekly). Targets are still set between 148-150 as bullish take profits. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
4
GBP AUD - rejection of 4hour 61.8% FibonacciHello analysts and traders, Here is a nice opportunity for buys which has happened this morning European session; What happened? well from the low to the high, take your fibonacci retracement tool and plot the 61.8% zone where we anticipated the buys. GBP still has bullish potential here to climb into 1.8XX The rejection happened nicely at 1.78 as expected. This pair has a nice liquidity zone so when entering be aware of a larger stop loss in comparison to other pairs. here is the updated daily perspective See our previous idea below; See the AUD USD Technicals to assess. We have a nice technical sell of yesterday but with the AUD USD rebounding in a negative light, the GBP has entered the supply again with a boost from the risk-off aversion. From the chart below, watch out for the fresh daily zone which has not been truly tested yet. , this has now been tested and rejected from the zone as expected. The main buy and hold area; 1. Zone 1: - inefficiency we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise and clears your mind. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
AUDUSD - Institutional Liquidity - Understand the WhyImagine understanding how to execute with precision? Imagine understanding the Why behind the markets.... Liquidity, Footprints, Level ll which is all considered within the framework of 'smart money concepts' December is traditionally known for the lack of liquidity and reduced volume in turn which causes increased volatility. Traditionally many including myself trade less throughout December and I tend to wrap my trading up around The second week of the month to spend time with my family, friends and loved ones. As we all know from an institutional stand point the seasonal holiday tends to be the month many take off to do the same but other than the above do you ever wonder why? ...... Bonus Month. PnL on institutions books are calculated for the year end and of course subjective to performance the portfolio manager & team are paid in accordance with the 'Net ROI (Factoring in either the hurdle rate or the watermark) Now the above is somewhat irrelevant but it's important to understand the Why..... So lets now take a look at understanding the Why behind this AUD/USD Short on 28th December 2020 at 08:44am shortly after the London/European open, But, first here are the performance metrics and values; Percentage ROI: +15.87% Initial Risk: 1% (factoring in RT Commissions) Stop Loss: 3 Pips Drawdown: 0.9 Pips Trade Duration: 7 Hours (Trade hit TP2 @ 15:46 UK GMT) ____________________ So lets take a look at the trade Breakdown Weekly Timeframe: The Weekly going back to 2001 has since been in a bullish uptrend, creating Higher Highs & Higher Lows until 2014 after it printed a Lower Low and failed to purge liquidity and create a Higher High. Price continued to create Lower Highs and Lowers Lows, Building Liquidity on it's way down. In March 2016 we Broke Major structure to the downside and printing a new structurally significant Low, Taking Liquidity. to allow for a Push to the upside, lifting offers, seeking the Institutional level & footprint which was yet to be 'Mitigated' from May / June 2018. Daily Chart: Price as we can see on the Daily timeframe is extremely efficient within the market structure & sub-structure. Building & Creating Liquidity to be targeted / purged and swept ! 1Hour: On December 21st 2020 we gapped down with intent and momentum creating multiple Breaks of structure to the downside, then correctively over the next 6 days moved back up to not only fill gap liquidity but tap into the Order Block left, Seen clearly..... Which was the beginning of our short trade ......
Editors' picks
Short
by Phantom_Trading
12