US OIL - Weekly imbalance still activeHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish , this is a game of patience.
For further charts - refer to the previous analysis with cross asset screenshots
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly Imbalances
Price has currently filled a monthly imbalance, with a new fresh imbalance zone awaiting price action to occur. The probabilities are strong here for price to enter into this zone, purely based on the candle wick which has been confirmed from February 2021. The wick on the lower time frames has provided evidence of this reaching a fractal point at $59.20 per barrel. . Price had created an engineered low, for the shakeout of the sellers who are looking for sells of the fresh "high". Note, on the daily, the trend line is well respected with the three soldier candle pattern 'identified as a sell off", however, this is a perfect opportunity to add a long.
The monthly imbalance - is still showing the respective low as explained above. The price of oil has continued to show it's strength reaching the next liquidity wick fill at $66.34-54. Now, the next important imbalance zone is yet to be breached and tested. Price can now create a fresh test of the monthly chart, applying as to what the structure on the monthly is showing is, the price can have a high probability of moving back to $60.00 - $62 zone to create a solid rally base rally formation setup.
s3.tradingview.com
Weekly Imbalances applied:
Bearish Weekly Scenario:
Where price is now entering a fresh imbalance - this is a great opportunity to close out long positions which have been held in a shorter run up or simply close out profits to de-risk and transfer the risk by offsetting shorts.
Why? - Simply put, fresh zone is a clear opportunity for the imbalance to occur. The imbalance will be closed out and the market structure will offer a new opportunity. Price can dramatically collapse again with a strong supply, however where price is still showing "long". Oil can be sold off to weekly imbalances or in a worst case scenario to the below Blue, monthly imbalance.
Weekly Imbalances - still active zones.
The Weekly imbalance provides a good indicator her where price can create a weekly supply or sellers imbalance as the zone is a fresh touch. The probability of price retracing from the newly created high, is a strong possibility. However, as there is a zone higher, Oil can still use this imbalance as a base, to create strong price action floating within a range of $67-60 per Barrel. Look into the smaller time frames for pivot points assessing the risk of entering a trade.
s3.tradingview.com
Eight hour Fibonacci, imbalance
Below are the eight hour imbalances, where a great structure has taken place to provide an opportunity for the base to built upon. The imbalance here will attract the short sellers and scalpers and hedged sellers to cover longs. However the 50% retrace zone aligns perfectly to a strong indicator of where Fibonacci lines mock up a solid alert to monitor the minor inefficiency taking place here. however be aware for the weekly zone below this is only a short term hedge for buys to capture both sides of the trade.
Price will have a high probability to fall towards $58-59 per barrel.
Daily imbalance - for a simplified view
Again the imbalance of the monthly aligns with the daily low, so take into account here a inflow opportunity for the building up of a buying imbalance at around $59-60. XX then initiate a buy order.
Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash.
2020-2021.
We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage.
This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed.
See the charts here -
Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect.
Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price.
Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease.
Producer Price Index
This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden.
The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line.
Below is the inflation ETF vs Oil - providing some crucial cause and effect over the future supply of Oil and where price is overall moving towards, again use inefficiency in the market.
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Inefficientpricing
XRP - Fell as expectedA Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Previous Analysis
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish.
Monthly imbalances:
The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes.
Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84.
The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle.
The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance.
The weekly imbalances
The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances.
The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly.
Two key criteria to follow here:
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
Daily chart - see idea link published 16th April 2021 above for updated chart:
See the daily imbalances applied - here patience will be required to wait for the clear sell off to occur as price will have created a reversion point on the daily time frame, this will offer discount to the awaiting buyers. Here is also an opportunity to short - for hedging.
Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments
The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish.
And also additional buy points.
Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references.
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SPX reaches target extension 1Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the original below:
This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern.
Analysis for 2021 outlook.
Multi-time frame analysis overview:
Weekly time frame of imbalance analysis:
Here is the weekly imbalances taking effect of the over extended Fibonacci sequence.
Here is the monthly timeframe:
While the 4K is a newly created all time high, the imbalance will now become a great area to exchange price action between the buyers and sellers.
Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place.
Cross asset analysis:
Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX?
An update below shows the positive correlation still maintaining structure.
Note- The Fibonacci sequence here shows the RINF - but the completion sequence aligns with 4,200+ zone where price will look to have created a new imbalance zone - whilst this is being created - assess the probabilities for the next part of the sequence.
EEM vs SPX
What does the emerging markets show us?
Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX .
Beware of XAU , XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken.
Vix vs SPX
Do not forget about the VIX, the volatility index is currently at low levels within a monthly imbalance and creating a good sense of fractal movements within the lower time frames for example, the daily and 16 hour timeframes. Price is showing a good probability of supressed capitulation waters, in relation to the Fibonacci sequence - SPX will nearly or complete the move to $4360 est. and then the VIX will grow an increasing sign of bullish probability based on high inefficiency.
XAU USD vs DXY
DXY is showing a weakening further of the US dollar, but has touched upon a critical imbalance as previously analysed, comparing the imbalance upon XAU in correlation to the SPX, Xau has created an imbalance between $1700 - 1670 on the monthly rejection. This imbalance here can be retested as the SPX moves towards completing the Fibonacci extension sequence and forms its new imbalance upon a monthly time frame.
DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action.
Excluded - Yields, Fed funds DXY - in depth
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BTC weekly imbalance - new longsHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See previous analysis here:
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1:
The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low.
2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies.
3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information.
Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart:
US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies.
BTC vs ETH:
Notice the imbalance pattern?
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XRP - Daily positional updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Update to original here:
Previous tracking here:
**
Price has rejected the Imbalance at $1.49 and successfully filled the candle wick - up we go!
**
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish.
Monthly imbalances:
The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes.
Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84.
The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle.
The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance.
The weekly imbalances
The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances.
The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly.
Putting the four day and weekly chart together
with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the weekly time frame - the pattern formed showed strong wicks and reversals occurring as price action takes affect.
The inefficiencies here are tested but the sellers are now removed and buying imbalances are in place.
There has been great opportunities to short from the weekly imbalance to maximise potential upon hedging or purely aggressively selling from +$0.60 zone as the weekly pattern completed. Conversely, this is short lived as the fresh zone is always retested with XRP as the higher weekly lows show a steady formation.
Two key criteria to follow here:
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
Cross asset analysis:
Using the weekly time frame, XRP is lagging behind the two correlated pairs - however is offering large scope for new zones for smaller imbalances.
OMGNetwork - Black
Tezos - Green
These two coins move with a very strong positive correlation - whereby price
Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments
The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish.
And also additional buy points.
Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
CHF JPY - Weekly testHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Four day view
The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling.
The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over.
Weekly imbalances
The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers.
The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone.
Monthly Imbalances
The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from.
Cross Pair Analysis
Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of
USD CHF - Orange
EUR SGD - Purple
The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY.
Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse.
Sell position entry points
Using the 4 day Fibonacci tool, a retracement is required where a nice liquidity wick will need to be filled.
This will be a key area to monitor for shorts as a double weekly test is highly probable.
Possible entries
Now that price has tested the "0" Fibonacci creating a bottom, price has created over the last few days some wicks but created an engulfing candle - price will now to look to close the wick fill and move towards 118.60 - where a double top formation has occurred.
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Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
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XRP - 2021 April updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the previous tracking here:
- short term analysis
Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish.
Monthly imbalances:
The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes.
Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84.
The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle.
The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance.
The weekly imbalances
The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances.
The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly.
Putting the four day and weekly chart together
with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the weekly time frame - the pattern formed showed strong wicks and reversals occurring as price action takes affect.
The inefficiencies here are tested but the sellers are now removed and buying imbalances are in place.
There has been great opportunities to short from the weekly imbalance to maximise potential upon hedging or purely aggressively selling from +$0.60 zone as the weekly pattern completed. Conversely, this is short lived as the fresh zone is always retested with XRP as the higher weekly lows show a steady formation.
Two key criteria to follow here:
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
Cross asset analysis:
Using the weekly time frame, XRP is lagging behind the two correlated pairs - however is offering large scope for new zones for smaller imbalances.
OMGNetwork - Black
Tezos - Green
These two coins move with a very strong positive correlation - whereby price
Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments
The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish.
And also additional buy points.
Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
XAG Update Hello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the original idea here:
Use the weekly imbalances as a reference
Check the monthly to confirm what you are seeing
Eight hour imbalances applied
Four day analysis
Keep track off the bigger picture;
use XAU, XAG correlation
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
SPX - 4K!Firstly, congratulations to all long term buyers who hold SPX or a variation.
Previous Bullish analysis here
See the First 2021 forecast here
Monthly imbalances
While the 4K is a newly created all time high, the imbalance will now become a great area to exchange price action between the buyers and sellers.
Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place.
The Weekly imbalance as shown on the current chart represents a new imbalance where price will look to revert to as an area of discounted buying.
Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX?
An update below shows the positive correlation still maintaining structure.
Note- The Fibonacci sequence here shows the RINF - but the completion sequence aligns with 4,200+ zone.
EEM vs SPX update
What does the emerging markets show us?
Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX.
Beware of XAU, XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken.
XAU vs SPX
Do you enjoy the setups?
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Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
GBP AUD - New zone, new buyHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Original analysis process.
Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view.
1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75
we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows.
From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs.
A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie.
2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development.
We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps.
Moving to now...
Monthly imbalances:
Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above.
From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards.
Weekly imbalance
While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position.
The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident.
Closely correlated pairs
GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances.
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
See the AUD USD chart here for further updates.
The DXY is pivotal
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
SPX vs AUD USD - with an importance note of GBP AUD.
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
Pre-march
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
EUR USD - trade updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the original idea here:
Updated idea here
Euro USD monthly imbalances
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here.
Euro - Weekly imbalances
The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone.
Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning.
EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side
Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
snapshot
US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first
U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence.
Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the
Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation
snapshot
Mirrors Edge
EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours.
With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated.
snapshot
Correlation:
USD CHF - Green
Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here.
snapshot
Trade update:
Probability for the next trade using the eight hour time frame.
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EUR USD - Imbalance path is clearHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Euro USD monthly imbalances
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here.
Here is the link to the privatised idea
EUR USD Short
Euro - Weekly imbalances
The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone.
Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning.
snapshot
EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side
Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
snapshot
US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first
U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence.
Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the
Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation
snapshot
Mirrors Edge
EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours.
With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated.
snapshot
Correlation:
USD CHF - Green
Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here.
snapshot
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GBP NZD - buying imbalance updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Original Idea here: February 15th 2021.
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance
What is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent.
The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart*
*
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency.
Weekly imbalances
Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers.
The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target.
Daily Imbalance pathway
The Kiwi Dollar has a focused pathway, using the four day trendline
The current possible imbalances are marked and align with the price targets where price will look to reject using a Fibonacci extension tool to form the range where price will bounce between. The Kiwi being the minor pair, has sensitivity far more volatile than the Pound Sterling.
From a Daily imbalance perspective.
I.// Price is creating a higher low - keeping the trendline in take.
II.// The monthly imbalance acts a strong support base for the long term positional holders.
Four hour buy zone confirmation
Cross Pair Analysis:
Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs
The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs:
AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY.
The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances.
Absolute correlation pairs
GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe.
The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs.
Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it.
Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone.
Buy zone
Between 1.906 - 1.916 if price retraces to this zone again.
Despite this being a 100pip zone, the confirmation of this range from a personal perspective is necessary.
Looking to hedge accordingly with weekly imbalances at the top to close out potential 'losses' and retain fee maintenance.
Targets
The price targets set are GBP NZD 2.08 + - with a longer term final profit target of 2.15.
Why? Because this is where our imbalance wick fill is.
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CHF JPY - Awaiting sell offHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Four day view
The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling.
The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over.
Weekly imbalances
The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers.
The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone.
Monthly Imbalances
The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from.
Cross Pair Analysis
Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of
USD CHF - Orange
EUR SGD - Purple
The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY.
Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse.
Sell position ready
Here is two possible sell scenarios
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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
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LINK USD - Trade updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
See the previous Link here for the original analysis:
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances:
The amount of data here is not a huge amount but the Fibonacci sequence has already completed a extension pattern on a monthly timeframe and provided imbalances which helps distinguish zones of probabilities where price can offer sell positions and respective buy positions.
1. The $36 high to $24 is a huge imbalance at the current moment but when aligning the price position creating an all time high. Price will reject here due to the newly created zone, where the imbalance of sellers will take over and created a lower correctional zone in a previous monthly imbalance or weekly. .
From a Fibonacci viewpoint.
The monthly zone creation at $20.00 provided the first opportunity for a correctional move down to the weekly imbalance fill between $8.95 to $4.5 dollars, however, using the Fibonacci tool - the imbalance fill is at the top of the zone where correctional moves have used the pivot reference of 61.8% as the optimal zone for probabilities for positional buying.
Here, the imbalance has been filled with the monthly July 2020 imbalance filled with a net close out from the sellers, signifying to buyers - the price ladder is now inefficient with sellers and buyers can take over.
Weekly Imbalances
The weekly imbalances have been previously tested, where the weekly imbalance candle provided a "breather" upon the bullish impulse move.
Price created a fractal point offering buyers a discounted opportunity to create a base zone.
Price has re-tested this imbalance and filled the liquidity wick.
The latest re-test has successfully filled in the imbalance at $23.7XX where price has rejected again and showed a highly favoured probability to become bullish further.
Daily imbalances
The new daily imbalances are in place offering a strong opportunity for price to show an opportunity to add a position.
The latest daily imbalance has been rejected by the sellers and now in control with the buyers.
The daily trendline pattern 'X' offers a cross opportunity to add a position upon a breakout of the trend, however, the real addition zone here is once $29.3 is successfully filled.
The cross analysis between relevant Crypto coins:
Key:
Red = XTZ USD
Orange = ETH USD Ethereum
Purple = OMG USD OMG Network
Using the comparison of what assets move in sync with this, it is clear that Etherium, OMG and Tezos have clear correlation with Chainlink within 0.9+ positive correlation.
Other comparable assets are EOS which is noticeably picking up traction towards creating a new imbalance.
The defined zones can be outlined in separate screens for defined imbalances - this is just to show the correlative aspect of where price is driving towards - i.e a monthly imbalance zone re-test.
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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
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GBP JPY - Buy updateHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
See the previous analysis here
Original buy here.
Monthly imbalances:
Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant.
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection.
Weekly Imbalances
The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent.
Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges.
The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80
The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled.
Daily Imbalances:
Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone .
From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move.
The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities.
Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers.
Profit taking
As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits.
From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps.
Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD
The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase.
Current cross analysis
Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as aswell as the correctional move for Gold.
Data Range shows entries
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USD JPY - Rollercoaster updateOriginal idea is here; or a full breakdown.
Quick analysis to understand why this trade was taken and how it was analysed.
Monthly imbalances for USD JPY
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone.
Daily Fibonacci
Currently price is heading to -0.272, before an opportunity for the trend in most scenarios to take a breather, where price will look towards the 8hour imbalance zone. Price has become bullish with a mounting risk of the VIX and the safe haven of both the USD and JPY.
The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities.
Weekly structure forming of the monthly imbalance
Entries:
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AUD USD - Trade update forward to AprilHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish, this is a game of patience.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Previous analysis:
link here:
The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance.
The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week.
Monthly imbalances
Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00
This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers.
Weekly time frame Imbalances
The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price.
The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios;
1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation .
2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again.
Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell.
SPX vs AUDUSD
The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors.
Yields:
Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence.
Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation.
DXY criteria:
DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again.
Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected.
Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame.
Correlation:
Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD
Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason.
Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms.
AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance.
Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid.
The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength.
Here is the graphical scale below:
Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP.
See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates.
Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency.
Gold discounted offering
See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD.
Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates.
Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here.
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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
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GBP NZD - buying imbalancesHello traders and analysts.
Below is our setup for the Minor pair - GBP NZD .
Zone colour Master Key:
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances -
Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons;
1. - Price is clearly making lower highs
2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance
Weekly imbalances
Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers.
The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target.
Daily imbalances
The current possible imbalances are marked and align with the price targets where price will look to reject using a Fibonacci extension tool, so these align with the strategy. On a daily timeframe, the price closes begin to show the consolidation and price range coming into effect.
Where we will look to buy next:
Between 1.906 - 1.91 if price retraces to this zone again.
Here is a possible scenario of what the next entry could be if price enters the grey zone.
Targets:
The price targets set are GBP NZD 2.08 + - with a longer term final profit target of 2.15.
Why? Because this is where our imbalance wick fill is.
Do you enjoy the setups?
We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets.
Offer our technical breakdowns here
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
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USD CAD - Long and wait for it, longHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly Imbalances
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones at 1.466XX established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily, to execute sale positions.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance high in line with the previous high of 2016, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The high of 1.466 was a structural high point where price indicated two key criteria;
1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move.
2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural high using the three month chart*
*Three month chart
What is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow.
The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 1.39 - 1.46 - while a very large zone. The three month and weekly time frames provide a great indicator as that price has not wicked the previous high.
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency.
Weekly imbalances
From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to sell for the positional sellers within the 1.44 - 1.46 zone. The reason for this zones important is due to two reasons;
1. Price aligns with the weekly high fractal referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. - Notice here that is key on all currency crosses.
2. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle.
Cross asset relationship between asset crosses
Purple - XAU USD
Dark Blue - US500
The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances.
Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets.
Monthly View
USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD.
Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like.
The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified .
Purple - EUR USD
Dark Blue - US OIL
The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot, fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability.
I. Weekly view
II. Monthly view
Fibonacci Extension
Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets.
Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts.
Weekly - Fibonacci extension
Daily Imbalances
The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances.
The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle*
4 Day view
This view has been added as the probability of a lower buying position could still be likely.
While the edge of the zone has been touched, for the price to regress back to original pivot point can create a higher low.
This will give a trading edge to assess the inefficient price and look for opportunities.
Entry criteria
- See this for an example -
I will execute upon confirmation of a liquidity rejection and inefficient price point touch.
Currently already long, but with a small position to assess the market conditions.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
NZD JPY - Ready and waitingHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
NZD JPY Monthly imbalances
Using the monthly time frame, it is clear to identify the buying imbalance and selling imbalance here.
At this moment in time, there is no opportunity to sell as price has not yet reacted to the zones in place.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 81.30- 84 JPY established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance low, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The low of 59.3 NZD to JPY was a structural low point where price indicated two key criteria;
1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move.
2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural low using the three month chart*
what is evident here?
The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow.
The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 59.30-59.50 NZD JPY.
Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency.
Three month chart*
Monthly chart
Weekly imbalance plan
From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to buy in for the positional buyers and within the 68.00 - 69.80 zone. There reason for this zones important is due to two reasons;
1. Price aligns with the weekly low referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection.
2. When forming a rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bullish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 71.96-72.00. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle .
Screenshot two - Fractal completion.
This shows the clear pattern that price will be 'broken' to create a new high here.
I. The low has been confirmed by the previous weekly touch of the candle wick high. - this nets off.
II. The body low has been netted by the wick high.
Fibonacci pathway
Using the daily timeframe, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets.
Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts.
The outcome from the Fibonacci extension tool.
This has been used for demonstration purposes for the analysis, however the technique in place here is how the top down analysis is predicted and executed.
Daily imbalance levels
The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances.
The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle*
Cross pair Analysis
Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs
The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs:
AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY.
The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances.
The second chart provides key data for the weekly and monthly using the major pair currencies*
GBP JPY is considered a minor pair - but with the correlation of XAU and commodity pairs the GBP also is a major pair so in this case with considered, it is analysed for the performance.
Using the cross asset of NZD JPY vs XAU USD, while cross referencing VIX and US 10 year yields.
The basis behind this, is to use the risk based approach of the NZD being a commodity currency where a produce of Gold and the correlation between the strength of the NZD and XAU in a 'risk on' approach. Particularly for the NZD using the imbalances as reference points.
The use of variable instruments of the VIX and 10 year US yields are due to the 'risk off' scenario plan.
Note;
I VIX and 10 year - spikes in session Fundamental decisions do not necessarily result in a 'jolt' in the price on every occasion. This opens the door to a strong positional buying opportunity and openness to credit risk take on.
II. The capitulation waters here on the economic cycle is ever present where buyers and sellers in the short term are profit taking and engineering liquidity from the transfer from the impatient to patient traders.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
EUR USD - It might be timeHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Euro USD monthly imbalances
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here.
Here is the link to the privatised idea
Euro - Weekly imbalances
The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone.
Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning.
EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side
Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows
I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency.
II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency.
The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required.
US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first
U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence.
Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the
Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation
Mirrors Edge
EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours.
With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated.
Correlation:
USD CHF - Green
Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken [ Marked in orange] . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
USD JPY - let's ride the rollercoasterHello Traders and Analysts,
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Magenta = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances for USD JPY
These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD.
The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102.
Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone.
Daily Fibonacci
Currently price is heading to -0.272, before an opportunity for the trend in most scenarios to take a breather, where price will look towards the 8hour imbalance zone. Price has become bullish with a mounting risk of the VIX and the safe haven of both the USD and JPY.
The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities.
8 hour imbalances
Weekly structure forming of the monthly imbalance
USD JPY VS DXY VS Debt instruments
Simplified - U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence.
Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the USD JPY - the Yen will show it's weakness.
Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation.
Keep an eye on the SPX
Last comparison;
Inflation ETF vs SPX500 .
If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space.
SPX idea: - updates pending
XAU USD
See here for the imbalances on Gold. This can help adjust the situation upon the USD.
Do you enjoy the setups?
10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
Team LVPA MMXXI
