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GBP JPY 150 touched! - let's re-analyseHello traders and analysts. 150 target has been hit! Congratulations holders! Below is our setup for the pair GBP JPY. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance Current situation - the Fibonacci sequence has completed over night in the Asian session - whereby price needed to close and reach the target of the extension using the 4 hour of the -0.786. The smaller time buy zone is now in place for possible longs so long that price creates a liquidity wick in this area. If price falls further, the daily zone comes into play. GBP JPY weekly timeframe Daily time frame 4 hour time frame See the original idea for the 2021 bullish outlook here: The imbalances are clear, price will hit our 150 analysis and then we will update the outlook accordingly. GBP pairs currently state of play in returns percentage: Here are the returns thus far from 2021 - 2022. GBP JPY has appreciated the most as expected. Fundamentals at play With the successful Brexit transition and recovery from the Risk-off scenario from Brexit, the commodity hedge from Gold will not push higher. While the vaccination and cases remain a concern for the UKs long term success in the economy opening up, the GBP has been seen rising and looks set to continue with a target of 149 poised to be filled by the bulls. This has now taken effect, however confirmations of a daily close will highlight further bullish momentum. The current zone in play approaching 150 is a monthly imbalance which has been previous tested as a supply imbalance. The Bulls may side-line between 147-150 in a range as GBP JPY can erase gains and equally provide gains very quickly in a trading session. Targets: 150! 152 154 Re-buy zones: 148 147 Lows of 145. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
8
SPX liquidity was needed - bullish trend intactHello traders and analysts, A quick note: This is tagged as long, for the wider outlook. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is an update to the previous idea - keep in mind the imbalances in the wider time frames. What does this chart show? Well, the trendline has been tested, but a higher low has been created suggesting that a correctional move was imminent. Why in this "sell off" remaining cool, calm and collected is important here. The emotional move in profit taking is crucial, but this move was needed. see the Fibonacci aligning here; This was another opportunity to add a long position - all be it small as price is at a costly price to buy in. But the power of compounding and average price will allow for these moves to take on a short term horizonal risk. The Fibonacci retracement aligns and a buy order can be placed. Note* this 61.8% maybe broken in the short term for a trendline retest of a false breakout to pin a bearish move. See the correctional move from the channel below. Notice how price is back within the lower green target. The trendline has been tested of 6 losing days consecutively. The 2021 analysis: Price has followed the path prediction thus far to a almost perfection at this moment in time. The reason for this is using the daily, weekly and monthly. The probability of the imbalances remain clear Multi time frame analysis: SPX is in need of a correctional Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est. SPX is in need of a correctional move using the monthly time frame Daily time frame: A four hour perspective of where price has moved from for the bullish scenario in the short term. SPX vs the Vix The Vix to be maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur. This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe. SPX vs Emerging: What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX . The commodities such as Copper , Silver , Gold and Platinum will now provide a solid buy opportunity now the demand will grow. The second image shows the return % of the fund upon a scale against the SPX on a daily chart close. Fundamental failures, to ensure imbalances are made clear for the bullish scenario. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11. 01 .2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Last comparison; Inflation ETF vs SPX500 . If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Editors' picks
TVC:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
24
GBP AUD - Run with the bulls with the range breakHello traders and analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is a nice opportunity for buys which has happened this morning European session; What happened? well from the low to the high, take your Fibonacci retracement tool and plot the 61.8% zone where we anticipated the buys. GBP still has bullish potential here to climb into 1.8XX - this is still in play upon the previous few days passing. The rejection happened nicely at 1.78 as expected. This pair has a nice liquidity zone so when entering be aware of a larger stop loss in comparison to other pairs. - Here is the latest update of the previous analysis. This update shows the beginning of the consolidation range: Four hour chart range view Price is currently trading a great 4 hour range, perfect to hedge short to protect long positions and buy in upon the lows . What will happen next? Well, price needs to break the 1.8030 zone, to push higher upon the bullish lower timeframe movements. Imbalances original idea: 1. Zone 1: - we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. A large break of structure will occur - taking out the equal highs. These are our Points of interests. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie, affecting the GBP also which has also been seeing a volatile state - however Growing against JPY, USD, but against the CAD, AUD, NZD is now seeing large flows creating ranges to accumulate account growth depending on signs of movement. Here is the bigger picture updated on the weekly time frame: Take a look to see what AUD USD is signalling; Here is the current situation: imbalances are clear The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios - 1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80 - . 2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
EUR/USD Long - Closing out a Monster position +29% ROI!!!!!!We have just closed a Monster long position in EUR/USD with a RR Achieved of 1:29. We have banked + 29% ROI since 4th July 2020. Using strict risk methodology of -1%. We have 10% left running on our long EUR/USD with our stops adjusted, locking in positive R Also. __ This trade was a combination of Wyckoff methodology, Price Inefficiency and Order Blocks. Please feel free to join our FREE Trading community where you will see the trade broken down across multiple timeframes, or send us a private message for any questions or queries. Best Wishes Phantom __ OANDA:EURUSD
Long
by Phantom_Trading