A trading pattern free marketOften many coins will display little to no trading patterns. This is due to their youth and lack of public adoption. For example bitcoin gold shows a clear bearish trend, however it is lacking the necessary features to identify directional movements. Swings can often be random, pumping at times when big players feel like it is necessary for them. This can spell trouble for holders and buyers alike. Maturation of the market is required for trading patterns to be more easily identified among various coins, and unfortunately this only comes with time. We will see how this 0.93 linear regression downtrend unfolds.
Infancy
Example of cryptocurrency market infancyWe are currently still in the infancy of the cryptocurrency market, as the market matures more coins will die off, fundamentals will become more prominent during evaluation and new trends within culture will emerge, including cryptocurrency. Often this infancy is compared to the dot com bubble which it is very much alike. This infancy is a direct contributor to the volatility and unpredictable nature of many coins, and most of the time this volatility is dependent on speculation. Once VERY clear leaders emerge (bitcoin, Eth, XRP at the current time) volatility will slow, and more growth will be seen as more confident investors enter the space.
Leave comments below I would love to hear your feedback, (what else I could have included).
HQY landed in my Buy Zone, as indicated on last postNASDAQ:HQY As noted in last post for HQY (linked) I was looking for 72's to begin accumulating in earnest this under the radar growth monster. I believe this has a very clear path to at least the 90's, and I am looking to add from here to 66 low point. If it gets down to 66 (which it may do with an overall macro downturn) this will be one of the many good buys that corrections open up. Of all the opportunities to be presented then, I will most likely add the most in HQY, DOCU, SFIX, and AYX. All infant growth stocks relatively speaking, but all should have outstanding entry points after a market correction, which I do expect. (See SPY posts; possible 230's by early 2020 imho) I am by no means a bear, but when it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, its probably a....
BCDBTC Possible? This is my first published chart but really it's just a possibility in a new market still in it's infancy right? Just wondering what people think? Is this what we all keep in our heads but don't really promote it out of fear of sabotaging it by making to many people aware of the possibility
Back to the basics...again.My posts are going to continue to be really simple because I believe in fundamentals and I believe in the long term. My first chart shows how no change happens if we simply recover by the end of the year. The chart won't change much if we go into a full on downtrend and lose even more market cap as well. Some people will continue to hold and some people will continue to short-sell, but it's still of no consequence.
The second chart shows just how much a newer high changes over all perspective. If we establish $25000 by years end you can see that what I call noise begins to minimize more and more.
The third chart shows that in the long run that if the market continues to grow, all of this up and down from January to May will be nothing to even mention other than it was a historic year in the continuous evolution of cryptocurrencies. I stopped only half way into 2019 because the bottom line becomes more and more non-existent.
Now the parabolic line that I've created should actually be considered part of a bell curve. If you believe that these new currencies are in the infant stage, then guess what, this bell curve is barely starting which means we have a long way to go up before we even consider it falling. A lot of people say that crypto won't be around or bitcoin won't be around in 100 years. So let's say that we are 8 years into a 50 year peak. That leaves us 42 year of growth before we actually start a decline. Even taking into account the slowing of growth at the end that leaves an easy 20 years of consistent exponential growth. 20 years at even 300% growth is maddening.
On the other hand, if we are on a 20 year cycle and we are almost at the peak that mean we will see slow growth till 2020 and then we start our decline. Because we still haven't reached our final coin in mining of bitcoin I don't see it ending that quickly. As far as pre-mined coins go, they might be a great indicator as to what will happen after the last coin is mined. Hopefully failure isn't in the cards.
Last of all, let's say that there ends up being a coin for every country in the world and by some miracle we have shifts in GDP and wealth gap so that all coins become equal. Very unlikely scenario I admit, but using comparative advantage and looking as to how with the right incentive, we might actually be able to pull this off, let's take a look at global GDP. Divide it by 100+ countries. This would give us a baseline of what we could see in crypto-growth for any given coin. I'm not going to attempt that calculation this post, because I'm sure it will be really controversial and a lot of people will criticize it, but I'm planting a seed for thought.
Hope my wild ideas are reaching a few people in the end. Till next time.
