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Inflation

$EUIRYY - Europe CPI (June/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 2% June/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone consumer price inflation rose slightly to 2.0% year-on-year in June 2025, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with market expectations, according to a preliminary estimate. The figure aligns with the European Central Bank’s official target. Among major economies, inflation in Germany unexpectedly declined, while France and Spain saw modest increases and Italy’s rate held steady.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Outlook. Best Quarter Since 2023… But What Next?The S&P 500 just logged its best quarterly performance since Q4 2023 , surging on optimism around global trade negotiations and growing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates as early as September. US futures are green this morning, thanks to developments like Canada backing off digital taxes, ongoing dialogues with China ahead of the July 9 deadline, and risk-on sentiment is pushing yields and the dollar lower. But as traders, we need to ask: Are we witnessing a genuine economic inflection point? Or is this just a liquidity-driven rally that’s pricing in a best-case scenario? Technical View Support Zone: 6,150 was just broken through. And 6000, the round number level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA and previous swing level. Resistance Levels: 6,235 is the next critical ceiling, a clean breakout could see price reach the extension level of 6,415. Momentum Indicators: RSI remains elevated and is creeping toward the overbought. While momentum is strong, watch out for the possible development of a divergence. Possible Scenarios The 'Soft Landing’ Is Now the Base Case Markets are trading as if the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing. But that’s now fully priced in, and historically, the most dangerous trades are the ones everyone agrees on. If trade talks stall, inflation re-accelerates, or earnings disappoint, the reversal could be brutal and fast. Risk-on Sentiment Without Volume Is a Yellow Flag Despite the price strength, volume has been tapering off. The S&P’s recent leg up occurred on lighter-than-average participation, suggesting institutions may be watching, not chasing. That’s often the case in low-volatility summers, but it also implies that any negative catalyst could cause outsized downside moves. Macro-Fundamentals May Not Justify Valuation Expansion Yes, inflation is slowing, and the Fed might cut. But if they do, it’s likely because growth is weakening, not because the economy is roaring. So the very condition that triggers rate cuts could also cap earnings growth! Projection Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 6,280 could carry us toward 6,400–6,500 by mid-Q3, especially if the trade deals progress, July inflation comes in soft, and the Fed signals accommodation. Bearish Risk: If price fails to hold above 6,120, especially if trade optimism fades, or inflation growth spikes or Fed rhetoric shifts hawkish again, this could then open a quick pullback toward 6,000 or lower, which also aligns with the 50-day SMA. Key Events to Watch July 9 Trade Talks Deadline: Any sign of stalling could bring volatility back fast. June CPI Print (July 10): Crucial for confirming the Fed's next move. Earnings Season Kickoff (mid-July): Tech-heavy expectations may not be easy to beat after such a strong run. Conclusion A record-setting quarter is impressive but not necessarily predictive. This quarter’s rally has been built more on relief and expectations than hard data. When expectations (not earnings) are doing the heavy lifting, any misstep from central banks or geopolitics could unravel gains rapidly. A rate cut might be delayed, or inflation re-accelerates, or trade talks stall; any of these could leave equities hanging. Remember: the higher the climb without real earnings growth, the harder the fall when sentiment shifts. It's not just about the chart. It is about the narrative behind the price. What’s your bias for Q3? Are you buying this breakout or fading the optimism? Drop your thoughts below.
SP:SPX
by JinDao_Tai
2
Can PCE data rescue the dollar? JPY, EUR, GBP setup in playThe latest U.S. PCE report is set for release at 8:30am EDT, with both headline and core inflation expected at 0.1% month-on-month. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, today’s figures could influence interest rate expectations. A stronger print may reduce the case for a July rate cut, while a softer result could add pressure on the U.S. dollar. The dollar has already weakened this week amid speculation over central bank independence (trump is reportedly considering nominating Fed chair Jerome Powell’s successor earlier than normal in order to undermine the current chair). Pairs to watch include, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY with symmetrical triangle formations suggesting breakout potential in either direction for all once the data hits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Australia's CPI slows, raising rate cut expectationsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495, up 0.08% on the day. Australia's inflation rate headed lower in May. Headline CPI rose 2.1%, after gains of 2.4% in the previous three months. This was below the market estimate of 2.3%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.4%, driven by lower petrol and housing costs. The key core CPI indicator, annual trimmed mean inflation, also dropped sharply, to 2.4% from 2.8%, its lowest level since Nov. 2021. The soft inflation report has boosted the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates at the July meeting. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut, up from 81% prior to the inflation release. The markets have priced in three more rate cuts this year, following rate cuts in February and May. The markets are counting on the RBA to be dovish in the second half of 2025. With inflation not only within the RBA's target of 2-3% but also falling, the markets expect that the RBA will be keen to lower rates in order to preserve economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified before a House Committee on Tuesday and had a cautious message for lawmakers. Powell said that the Fed was committed to keeping inflation contained and that the Fed planned to maintain rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation was more clear and reiterated that inflation still remained above the Fed's 2% target. Powell has faced blistering criticism from President Trump for not lowering rates. In his testimony, Powell said that Trump's attacks were "having no effects" on Fed policy. AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 1.3726 and is testing resistance at 1.3727. Above, there is resistance at 1.3750 1.3713 and 1.3702 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Australian dollar jumps on Israel-Iran cease fireThe Australian dollar is up sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.70% on the day. Investors' risk appetite is higher today after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their 12-day war. The markets have reacted favorably to lower oil prices as fears that Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz, which would have disrupted global oil supplies, have diminished. Risk appetite has returned and risk currencies like the Australian dollar have posted strong gains today. The Israel-Iran war has triggered sharp swings in oil prices and there are fears of an oil price shock if the fragile ceasefire does not hold. An oil price shock would send petrol prices higher and boost inflation, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia's plans to lower interest rates. Australia CPI expected to ease to 2.3% Australia releases the May inflation report early on Wednesday. Headline CPI has been stuck at 2.4% for three consecutive months, within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target of 2-3% and its lowest level since Nov. 2024. The market estimate for May stands at 2.3%. Trimmed Mean CPI, a key core inflation indication, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in April. The Reserve Bank will be keeping a close eye on the inflation report, with the central bank making a rate announcement on July 8. The RBA trimmed rates by a quarter-point in May and has shifted to a more dovish stance - the Board discussed a jumbo half-point cut at the May meeting. Fred Chair Powell appears before Congress today and Wednesday and is likely to defend the Fed's wait-and-see stance. The Fed is concerned about President Trump's tariffs and the Israel-Iran war threatens stability in the Middle East, hardly the recipe for further rate cuts. Still, there appears to be some dissent within the Fed, as two members, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have suggested that the Fed could lower rates as early as September. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6490. Above, there is resistance at 0.6522 There is support at 0.6400 and 0.6342
by OANDA
1
Yen slides on oil supply jitters after US attack on IranThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. In the European session, USD/JPY has jumped 1.2% on the day and is trading at 147.82. The yen has fallen to five-week lows against the US dollar. The fallout from the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend is being felt in the currency markets. The Japanese yen, traditionally a safe-haven currency, continues to depreciate, in response to rising oil prices. Oil prices rose to their highest level since January on Monday after the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, a critical trade route through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes through each day. Oil prices have jumped about 10% since the Israel-Iran war started on June 13 and fears of a disruption to oil supply could further boost oil prices. As oil prices have climbed, the yen has lost ground, declining 3.0% since the Israel-Iran war started. Japan imports almost all of its oil and the rise in oil prices is hurting Japan's trade balance. Japan's core inflation rate climbed 3.7% y/y in May, up from 3.5% in April. Core CPI has accelerated for a third straight month and hit its highest level since Jan. 2023. This was above the market estimate of 3.6%. Headline inflation ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in April, below the forecast of 3.6%. The rise in core CPI supports the case for the Bank of Japan to boost interest rates, but the uncertainty over tariffs and the Israel-Iran war will likely mean that the BoJ will stay on the sidelines in the coming months. There is resistance at 146.91. Next, USD/JPY is testing resistance at 147.61 146.51 and 145.81 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Crude Oil Prices Rocketing amid geopolitical risks NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:BZ1! Macro: Geopolitical tensions remain high and markets are now likely to price in our scenario discussing ongoing air and missile war, given one-off intervention from the US thus far. According to Reuters, the U.S. now assesses that Iranian retaliation could occur within the next two days.What happens next is anybody’s guess but as traders, it is important to navigate these uncertainties with scenario planning and/or reduce risk to account for increased volatility. We also get Services and Manufacturing PMI data today and PCE Price Index on Friday. Chair Powell is set to testify on Tuesday 9am CT. Key levels: Jan 2025 High: 76.57 2025 High: 78.40 2025 CVAH(Composite Value Area High): 75.68 Key LIS zone: 73.50-73.15 We anticipate the following scenarios in crude oil: Scenario 1: Prices remain elevated as tensions remain high, despite limited retaliation, however, the situation overall now escalated beyond return to diplomacy. Scenario 2: Any push towards de-escalation, unlikely in our analysis, but given the headline risk, crude prices may remain volatile and come off the highs. Given our key LIS (Line in Sand) zone above, we favor longs above this and shorts below this zone.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
$JPIRYY -Japan CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY May/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan's annual inflation rate edged down to 3.5% in May 2025 from 3.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since November. Price growth eased for clothing (2.6% vs 2.7% in April), household items (3.6% vs 4.1%), and healthcare (2.0% vs 2.2%), while education costs fell further (-5.6%). In contrast, inflation held steady for transport (2.7%) and miscellaneous items (1.3%), but accelerated for housing (1.1% vs 1.0%), recreation (3.0% vs 2.7%), and communications (1.9% vs 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of electricity (11.3% vs 13.5%) and gas (5.4% vs 4.4%) remained elevated. On the food side, prices increased by 6.5%, staying at the slowest pace in four months, though rice prices soared over 100%, underscoring the limited impact of government efforts to rein in staple food costs. Meanwhile, the core inflation accelerated to 3.7% from 3.5% in April, reaching its highest level in over two years, ahead of the summer election. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% gain in April.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
UK retail sales slide, Pound edges higherThe British pound has gained ground for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3496, up 0.22% on the day. UK retail sales took a tumble in May, falling 2.7% m/m. This followed an upwardly revised 1.3% increase in April and was much worse than the market estimate of -0.5%. This marked the steepest decline since December 2023 and was driven by a sharp drop in food store sales. Consumers are being squeezed by inflation and are pessimistic about economic conditions - Gfk consumer confidence for June rose slightly to -18 from -20. Annually, retail sales dropped 1.3%, following a 5.0% gain in April and missing the market estimate of 1.7%. This was the weakest reading since April 2024. The dismal retail sales report reflects the volatile economic landscape and there may not be a light at the end of the tunnel for some time. The Israel-Iran war could lead to oil prices continuing to rise and the uncertainty over US tariffs will only add to the worries of the UK consumer. The Bank of England held rates on Thursday but the weak retail sales report will add pressure on the central bank to lower rates in the summer. The markets expect one or two rate cuts in 2025, but the main impediment to a rate cut is stubbornly high inflation. Inflation ticked lower to 3.4% y/y in May from 3.5% a month earlier. The core rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.8% but these numbers are still too high, well above the BoE's target of 2%. Without signs that inflation is easing, it will be difficult for the BoE to justify a rate cut. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3498. Above, there is resistance at 1.3527 1.3440 and 1.3411 are providing support
by OANDA
Pound Steady as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3435, up 0.18% on the day. The Bank of England didn't have any surprises up its sleeve as it held rates at 4.25%. This follows a quarter-point cut at last month's meeting. The MPC vote indicated that six members voted to hold while three voted to lower rates. The markets had projected that the vote would be 7-2 in favor of holding rates. Today's decision to hold rates was widely expected, but that doesn't mean there aren't economic signals which support a rate cut. The UK economy is in trouble and GDP came in at -0.3% in April, its deepest contraction in 18 months. The weak economy could desperately use a rate cut, but inflation remains stubbornly high and a rate cut would likely send inflation even higher. Annual CPI remained at 3.4% in May, its highest level in over a year. The geopolitical tensions, most recently the war between Israel and Iran have led to greater economic uncertainty and complicated any plans to lower rates. The BoE is expected to lower rates one or twice in the second half of the year, with the direction of inflation being a key factor in the Bank's rate path. The Federal Reserve held rates at Wednesday's meeting for a fourth straight time. The Fed noted that inflation remains higher than the target but said the labor market remains strong. President Trump has pushed hard for the Fed to lower rates but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stuck to his position and repeated on Wednesday that current policy was the most appropriate to respond to the economic uncertainty.
by OANDA
Pound recovers as UK CPI edges lowerThe British pound has stabilized on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3551, up 0.28% on the day. The US dollar showed broad strength on Tuesday and GBP/USD declined 1.05% and fell to a three-week low. UK inflation for May edged lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in April and matching the market estimate. The driver behind the deceleration was lower airline prices and petrol prices. Services inflation, which has been persistently high, eased to 4.7% from 5.4%. Monthly, CPI gained 0.2%, much lower than the 1.2% gain in April and matching the market estimate. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell to 3.5% in May, down from 3.8% a month earlier and below the market estimate of 3.6%. Monthly, the core rate rose 0.2%, sharply lower than the 1.4% spike in April and in line with the market estimate. This marked the lowest monthly increase in four months. The Bank of England will be pleased that core CPI moved lower but the inflation numbers are still too high for its liking. Headline CPI had been below 3% for a year but has jumped well above 3% in the past two months. BoE policymakers won't have much time to digest today's inflation report as the central bank makes its rate announcement on Thursday. The markets are widely expecting the BoE to maintain the cash rate at 4.25%, Investors will be keeping a close eye on the meeting, looking for hints of a rate cut later in the year. The UK economy contracted in April and with wages falling and unemployment rising, there is pressure for the BoE to lower rates, but that is risky with inflation well above the BoE's 2% inflation target. US retail sales slumped in May, falling 0.9% m/m. This was well below the revised -0.1% reading in April and worse than the market estimate of -0.7%. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.3%, down sharply from a revised 5.0%. Consumers are wary about the economy and anxiety over Trump's tariffs has weighed on consumer spending. If additional key US data heads lower, this will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. GBP/US is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3480. Above, there is resistance at 1.3545 1.3364 and 1.3299 are providing support
by OANDA
GBIRYY - U.K Inflation (May/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY May/2025 source: Office for National Statistics -The annual inflation rate in the UK edged down to 3.4% in May 2025 from 3.5% in April, matching expectations. The largest downward contribution came from transport prices (0.7% vs 3.3%), reflecting falls in air fares (-5%) largely due to the timing of Easter and the associated school holidays, as well as falling motor fuel prices. Additionally, the correction of an error in the Vehicle Excise Duty series contributed to the drop; the error affected April’s data, but the series has been corrected from May. Further downward pressure came from cost for housing and household services (6.9% vs 7%), mostly owner occupiers' housing costs (6.7% vs 6.9%). Services inflation also slowed to 4.7% from 5.4%. On the other hand, the largest, upward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.4% vs 3.4%), namely chocolate, confectionery and ice cream, and furniture and household goods (0.8%, the most since December 2023). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Mr. LATE drop the RATE!!"Jerome Powell aspires to be remembered as a heroic Federal Reserve chair, akin to Tall Paul #VOLKER. However, Volker was largely unpopular during much of his tenure. The primary function of the Federal Reserve is to finance the federal #government and ensure liquidity in US capital markets. Controlling price inflation should not rely on costly credit. Instead, it should be achieved by stimulating growth and productivity through innovation and by rewarding companies that wisely allocate capital, ultimately leading to robust cash flows... innovation thrives on affordable capital. While innovation can lead to misallocations and speculative errors, this is a normal aspect of the process. (BUT it is crucial that deposits and savings are always insured and kept separate from investment capital.) By maintaining higher interest rates for longer than necessary, J POW is negatively impacting innovators, capital allocators, small businesses that need cheap capital to function effectively, job creators, and the overall growth environment. Addressing price inflation is a far more favorable situation than allowing unemployment to soar to intolerable levels. "Losing my job feels like a depression". But if I have to pay more for eggs, I can always opt for oats.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BallaJi
1
$JPINTR -Japan Interest Rates (June/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR (June/2025) source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its June meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008 and aligning with market expectations. The unanimous decision underscored the central bank’s cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical risks and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, both of which continue to pose threats to global economic growth. Tokyo and Washington agreed to extend trade talks after failing to achieve a breakthrough during discussions on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada. Meanwhile, as part of its gradual policy normalization, the BoJ reaffirmed its plan to cut Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion each quarter through March 2026. Starting April 2026, it will then slow the reduction to JPY 200 billion per quarter through March 2027, targeting a monthly purchase level of around JPY 2 trillion—signaling a measured but steady path away from ultra-loose monetary policy.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
"Downside DAX" is what we will call it in July?Looking at the technical picture purely, we can see that weakness is starting to kick in. Will July be a negative month for DAX? Let's have a look. XETR:DAX Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
XETR:DAX
by Marketscom
US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts. Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, significantly higher than recent lows. Historically, every similar increase has coincided with or preceded an official recession declaration. Yet, mainstream economic narratives have avoided labeling this a recession. What does this data tell us, and is the market accurately pricing in the risk? Are we already in a recession, or is this time different? Share your thoughts below. Let's discuss the disconnect between the unemployment reality and official recession narratives.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Teqnkka
$USIRYY -U.S CPI Below Expectations (May/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.4% (May/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US increased for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, though it came in below the expected 2.5%. Prices rose slightly more for food, used cars and new vehicles but shelter cost slowed and gasoline prices continued to decline. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate held steady at 2.8%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI increased by 0.1%, falling short of market expectations.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US INFLATION, a decisive figure this week!This week, which runs from Monday June 9 to Friday June 13, sees two fundamental factors which will have a strong impact on the stock market: the continuation of the trade diplomacy phase which is currently acting as a fundamental red thread (particularly between China and the United States) and, above all, the US inflation update according to the PCI price index on Wednesday June 11. The key issue is to determine whether tariffs in the so-called reciprocal tariffs trade war have begun to trigger a rebound in inflation. This is what the US Federal Reserve (FED) is watching to determine whether or not it should resume cutting the federal funds rate, which has been on hold since last December. 1) Federal funds rate cuts have been on hold since the end of 2024 Unlike the European Central Bank and other major Western central banks, the FED has paused its key interest rate cut since the beginning of the year. The ECB's key interest rate, meanwhile, has been cut several times and now stands at 2.15%, i.e. a key interest rate considered neutral for the economy (i.e. neither an accommodating nor a restrictive monetary policy). This divergence in monetary policy between the FED and the ECB is perceived as a risk by the market, while the trade war could end up having a negative impact on US economic growth. 2) The market does not expect the FED to resume cutting rates before September. But Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve (FED) is taking a hard line, believing that the Trump Administration's trade war could undermine its efforts to fight inflation. Although the FED's inflation target of 2% is not far off, according to the latest ECP and CPI updates, the FED wants confirmation that companies have not passed on sharp price rises to compensate for the tariffs. This is why the inflation figures published this May have a decisive dimension at a fundamental level. The Fed will be able to resume cutting the federal funds rate if, and only if, disinflation is not threatened by the trade war. 3) This is why the ICP US inflation update on Wednesday June 11 is the fundamental highlight of the week. This Wednesday, June 11, we'll be keeping a very close eye on the publication of US inflation according to the ICP. The monthly reading will be closely watched, as will the year-on-year nominal and underlying inflation rates. The consensus is relatively pessimistic, with inflation expected to rebound at both monthly and annual rates. Real-time inflation, as measured by TRUFLATION, is still under control, so the pessimistic consensus may be overturned. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Swissquote
$CNIRYY -China CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY May/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices dropped by 0.1% yoy in May 2025, matching the declines seen in the previous two months and slightly outperforming expectations of a 0.2% decrease. This was the fourth straight month of consumer deflation, highlighting challenges from ongoing trade risks with the US, sluggish domestic demand, and concerns over job stability. Non-food prices were flat for the second month in a row, as increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1% in April), clothing (1.5% vs. 1.3%), healthcare (0.3% vs 0.2%), and education (0.9% vs 0.7%) were offset by a sharper drop in transport (-4.3% vs -3.9%). On the food side, prices fell at a steeper rate (-0.4% vs -0.2%), down for the fourth month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.6%, marking the highest reading since January and following a 0.5% gain in the prior two months. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.2% in May, reversing a 0.1% gain in April and indicating the third monthly drop so far this year.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR - Interest Rates Cut (June/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR (June/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB cut key interest rates by 25 bps at its June meeting, based on updated inflation and economic forecasts. Inflation is near the 2% target, with projections showing 2.0% in 2025 (vs 2.3% previously), 1.6% in 2026 (vs 1.9% previously), and 2.0% in 2027. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is seen at 2.4% in 2025, then easing to 1.9% in 2026–2027. GDP growth is forecast at 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 (vs 1.2% previously), and 1.3% in 2027, supported by higher real incomes, strong labour markets, and rising government investment, despite trade policy uncertainties weighing on exports and business investment. Scenario analysis shows trade tensions could reduce growth and inflation, while resolution could boost both. Wage growth is still high but slowing, and corporate profits are helping absorb cost pressures. President Lagarde said that the central bank is approaching the end of a cycle, suggesting a pause may be on the horizon following today’s reduction.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUIRYY - Europe CPI below 2% Target (May/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 1.9% May/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone CPI eased to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%. This marks the first time inflation has fallen below the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target since September 2024, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut later this week and raising the possibility of additional cuts. A key driver of the deceleration was a sharp slowdown in services inflation, which dropped to 3.2% from 4.0% in April, its lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 3.6% year-on-year, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods held steady at 0.6%. In contrast, prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising 3.3% compared with 3.0% the previous month. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, slipped to 2.3%, the lowest reading since January 2022. source: EUROSTAT
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx