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Inflation

How New Zealand's central bank have given up the fight... It's the 24th May 2023, 3pm local time. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have just increased the official interest rate by 0.25% to 5.50%, as expected. What happened next was not expected... The RBNZ announced that they currently have no intention of raising rates further and that the next rate change could possibly be a cut! What does this mean for New Zealand and the NZD? Central banks across the globe have been increasing rates over the last 12 months to tackle high inflation. In some countries, like the US, inflation has been coming down and is currently edging toward a 2% norm. For other countries, inflation has been much more stubborn. New Zealand is one of these countries with "sticky" inflation, which is currently sitting just below 7% and hasn't really budged over the last year. The RBNZ's main weapon to fight inflation is to raise interest rates. Until now, the markets have expected the RBNZ, along with other central banks, to keep raising rates in order to bring inflation down. New Zealand's central bank has announced they are no longer going to do this. So, what does this mean? Well, it means that high inflation could be a new norm for New Zealanders. The central bank is giving up the fight. High inflation has won. Inflation is here to stay! This is obviously not good news for the NZD, hence today's strong NZD sell off. High inflation combined with no more rate hikes, and poor PMI figures, may result in the NZD to continue to weaken longer-time. Could the NZD continue to sell off? The outlook doesn't look great for New Zealand, but this is not Brexit or a financial crisis. There are economic figures indicating good economic health for New Zealand, such as strong - relative to other global economies - GDP growth and low unemployment. The announcement of no more rate hikes could be a bearish driving force for the NZD, though. What does this mean for the rest of the world? The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strongly correlated to the NZD, meaning we could see the AUD fall also, which has already started. It wouldn't be a great shock, to see the Reserve Bank of Australia take a similar stance to their neighbours, which could see the AUD fall further. What could really shift the markets is if the RBNZ have set the tone for the rest of the Western world. Now that the RBNZ have given up, could other central banks do the same? This may result in downside moves for the Euro, British Pound, Rand, and other global currencies. How to trade the RBNZ's decision... The US continues to lead the way for the Western world with regarding to bringing inflation to a 2% norm. Canada is following a similar trend. Singapore is not too far off. Economies such as the Euro Area, the UK, Scandinavia, and South Africa continue to face an issue of stubbornly high inflation. These countries could take a similar approach to the RBNZ but it's way too early to tell. At the moment, rate hikes continue to be on the table for the foreseeable future. For me, the inflation trades seem obvious, buy the US Dollar and sell the NZD and AUD. If other central banks follow suit to the RBNZ decision, then selling the currencies related to those central banks is an obvious trade, especially the EUR, GBP, ZAR and SEK.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
GBP/USD dips after disappointing UK inflationGBP/USD is down for a third straight day, trading at 1.2374, down 0.33%. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.2369, its lowest level since April 18th. The FOMC releases the minutes of the May meeting later today. The closely-watched UK inflation report for April was a disappointment. There was some good news as headline inflation fell to 8.7%, down sharply from 10.1%. Hopefully, this is the end, finally, of inflation in double-digit territory. Still, the reading was above the estimate of 8.2%. There was nothing positive about core CPI, which is the more important gauge of inflation. The core rate jumped from 6.2% to 6.8%. Forecasters had expected core CPI to remain at 6.2% and the unexpected rise is clearly a big step backward for the Bank of England in its tenacious battle with inflation. Governor Bailey is speaking at two public engagements today, and we can expect him to make mention of the inflation report. The BoE has raised rates by 1% this year, bringing the cash rate to 5.25%, but inflation has proven to be persistent. The IMF has projected that UK inflation would fall to around 5% by the end of the year and drop to the 2% target by the middle of 2025. It will be a bumpy road to restore low inflation, and the BoE will probably have to raise rates again in June, unless core inflation surprises dramatically on the downside. US lawmakers continue to fight over the debt ceiling, as US Treasury Secretary Yellen has warned that the ceiling could be reached on June 1st, which doesn't leave a lot of time for an agreement. Republicans have said Yellen's date isn't accurate, but even if the deadline is a week or two later, Congress seems to be playing with fire to score political points. Investors are worried, and stock markets are down while safe-havens such as gold and the US dollar are higher. We've seen this movie before, and Congress has always reached a deal before the deadline. Still, we can expect risk sentiment to slide and the US dollar to gain ground the longer we go without a deal. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2375 in the European session. Below, there is support at 1.2307 1.2461 and 1.2529 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
NZD/USD unchanged ahead of New Zealand retail salesThe New Zealand dollar is coming off a strong week, with gains of 1.36%. In Monday's North American session, NZD is unchanged, trading at 0.6274. New Zealand releases retail sales on Tuesday. The central bank's tightening has hampered consumer spending and the markets are bracing for a decline in retail sales for the first quarter. Headline retail sales are expected at -0.4%, after -0.6% in Q4 2022. The core rate is projected to decline by 0.6%, following -1.6% in Q4. The retail sales report will be followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a modest 25-basis point hike, which would be the smallest increase since February 2022, when the central bank raised rates from 0.75% to 1.00%. The central bank has not been shy about tightening, with the benchmark cash rate currently at 5.25%. Inflation in March from 7.2% to 6.7% on an annualized basis, more than double the upper range of the 1-3% target. The RBNZ is unlikely to wind up the current rate-tightening cycle before inflation drops substantially. There was some positive news earlier in the month, as inflation expectations eased in the first quarter to 2.79%, down from 3.30% in the previous quarter. This may have cemented a 25-bp hike on Wednesday, as the central bank pays close attention to inflation expectations, which if embedded can lead to higher inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the banking sector turmoil could mean that the Fed will not have to raise rates "as much as it would have otherwise". Powell reiterated that inflation remained too high and future rate decisions would depend on data. The takeaway from Powell's remarks is that we could be close to the end of the current rate-hike cycle, but inflation will have to cooperate and move lower to the 2% target. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6256. Below, there is support at 0.6207 0.6326 and 0.6375 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
Bitcoin Bearish for rest of year. Buy in DecemberAs much as I love BTC for a insurance policy against government debt, it is still subject to human nature. Fear and Greed. And with proxy exposure to the function of all financial markets, liquidity. I want to believe that we have seen the worst that is to come for now but at this point it feels like sticking my head in the sand. How can we not see a correction in the markets that is one for the history books after the swings we have experienced over the last few years? Or was there just SO much liquidity in the system at basically 0% interest rates for a decade that even after an increase of FED fund rates (10 fold of anything we have seen, ever) we have just made up for lost time and its now time to carry on as per schedule. The trade: - Short any pops (ie retest of trendline) until later this year -All in again in Nov 2023 to Feb 2024 (debt crises should have sorted itself out by then)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by merchtank19
DXY rising puts pressure on commodities DXY on the daily chart hit a pivot top in early March and then 9 trading days ago a pivot bottom and reversal. While trending down, a weakening dollar in general supports rising commodity prices. The converse is likewise applicable. This week with increasing strength of the dollar, upward price action of commodities may be challenged. The predictive algo ( Echo indicator by Luxalgo ) predicts the dollar strength rise will continue in the immediate term future. The zero-lag MACD with its k/D lines rising and parallel is further confirmation. I conclude that positive price action in oil, metals and agricultural commodities may face dollar strength resistance while forex pairs containing the dollar may move in the dollar's direction, absent conflicting or confounding factors otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
USD/JPY - Yen sinks to 6.5 month low, is 140 next?The yen woes continue, as the currency has plunged a massive 400 points over the past week. In Thursday's North American session, the yen is trading at 138.52, up 0.60% on the day. USD/JPY hasn't been at such high levels since November 2022. All eyes will be on Japan's Core CPI release early on Friday. This is a key inflation indicator and could move the dial of the yen. The markets are expecting Core CPI to rise to 3.4% in April, after two straight readings of 3.1%. Inflation remains a key issue for the Bank of Japan. The new Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has continued the Bank's ultra-accommodative policy but has also hinted at taking steps towards normalization, such as adjusting the yield curve control (YCC) policy if inflation remains sustainable above 2%.  This week's GDP release showed growth in the first quarter was higher than expected, and that could raise expectations that the Bank will shift policy, perhaps in baby steps, in the near future. As for interest rate policy, we're unlikely to see any tightening before 2024. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on a panel later today, and the markets will be all ears. Powell has remained hawkish, saying that high inflation could result in further rate hikes. Powell has dismissed outright any rate cuts, but the markets still believe that the Fed will trim rates before the end of the year. JP Morgan weighed in earlier this week, saying they agreed with the markets that the Fed would cut rates, as the economy was likely to tip into a recession. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 138.42. Above, the next resistance line is 139.58 There is support at 137.08 and 136.42
by OANDA
1
CAD CPI could trigger next wave downThe previous CAD CPI data marked a significant turning point, with CAD having a 2 week hangover and the basket of major currencies getting a wild ride against the weakened CAD. Could we see the opposite this time around? USD is seeing significant strength against the basket but is starting to look ripe for a pullback. If we see another strong day for USD on monday, pushing USDCAD into the cluster of pre vious activity between 1.36000 - 1.36500, we could be primed for a significant pullback in USD strength and the CAD CPI might just be the catalyst for a major leg down to back below 1.34500. Of course, don't trade blindly, wait to see if the setup occurs, see the CPI numbers and how the market reacts. This is a very specific scenario, but if we are in that 1.36000 range when the numbers are released Tuesday, I'll be very quick to enter short if the market sees intraday downside momentum.
Short
by HayeTrading
6
GBPUSD Plummets after 12month HighAfter briefly breaking the 12-month high from May 2022 of 1.26670 this week, a wave of selling came in amid a big news week. The Bank of England (BoE) jacked up the UK Bank Rate to 4.5%, marking the 12th hike in a row. Despite two dissenting votes, the committee expects more tightening if price pressures persist. This could mean the rate peaking around 4.75% by the end of 2023. BoE expects the UK's inflation to drop sharply from April, but that they are ‘continuing to address the risk of more persistent strength in domestic price and wage setting, as represented by the upward skew in the projected distribution for CPI inflation.’ Meanwhile, BoE's forecast for UK growth is cautiously upbeat, predicting flat growth in the first half of the year and a slight uptick after that. Over in the States, the US Dollar gained strength headed into the weekend as investors look for safety amid uncertainty. This comes after a regional US bank, PacWest, reported a substantial 10% deposit drop and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report came in weak. From a technical perspective, tapping new highs briefly but failing to hold, leading to a sharp sell-off and retracing 2 weeks worth of gains in 2 days could signal a significant shift for the Cable ahead. We've seen a clean downside channel break, and - while a retracement seems likely after such volatile selling into the weekend - lower highs and lower lows could be the blueprint for the days and weeks ahead.
Short
by HayeTrading
2
EURUSD - A review of this week's newsWe're beginning to see a Tale Of Two Economies emerge, as US data this week shows the path of disinflation continues, albeit slowly, giving investors hope that the Fed's interest rate increases are making an impact. Meanwhile across the pond, all quotes from the ECB are warning that the fight against inflation rages on and further rate hikes will be coming. However, one major factor hanging over the Dollar is the news that there is "significant risk", according to the CBO, that the US won't be able to pay all of it's obligations as soon as the beginning of June, leading to the possibility of a default unless Congress votes to raise or suspend the Debt Ceiling. From a technical perspective we see EURUSD failed a number of attempts to break through at the highs and has now begun to create lower highs and lows with it's violent moves down in recent days. Key trendlines and support levels have been broken and all signs point to the countertrend move having begun. While we appear overextended on lower timeframes, it may be prudent to wait patiently for a new lower high for a viable short entry. It seems likely that we're witnessing a breakout to the upside on the DXY combined with profit taking and shift in sentiment for the Euro due to continued inflationary pressure in contrast to US inflation. United States (US): US CPI YoY 4.9% (Forecast 5%) : Consumer prices rose 4.9% on an annual basis, below forecast. US Core PPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.4%): The US core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecasted 3.3%. US PPI MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.5%): The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, slightly below the forecasted 0.3%. US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 264k (Forecast 245k, Previous 242k): The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits rose to 264,000, exceeding the forecasted 245,000. This increase suggests ongoing challenges in the US job market. The “single biggest threat” to the economy now is the US hurtling towards a default on its obligations, said Karine Jean-Pierre, press secretary. European Central Bank (ECB): ECB: Consumers see 5% inflation over the next 12 months vs 4.6% in February : The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that consumers in the Eurozone expect inflation to reach 5% over the next 12 months. This represents an increase from the previous estimate of 4.6% in February, reflecting growing concerns about rising prices. ECB's Nagel says the "latest interest rate hike won't be the last". ECB's Lagarde spoke on Thursday, saying "the fight against inflation isn't over".
Short
by HayeTrading
2
The REAL S&PAs you might have heard headlines like "97% of the gains in SNP this year are made up by the top 15 companies" "Worst market breadth of all time" Here's a chart of the big 5 (FAANG with microsoft instead of google) Those "TECH" companies are seemingly ignoring bearish economics and skyrocketing on AI But...how long will it last when people are seeing 30% lettuce inflation and the like? (Not to mention NATGAS and USOIL sitting at strong support levels forecasting another possible runup on inflation) Who knows... I'm not an oracle but here's a chart shows elliot count and pre-distribution supply level Good luck
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SwissMail
2
Will US CPI shake up sleepy yen?USD/JPY continues to have a quiet week and is almost unchanged, trading at 135.20. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions, which will be released later today. The summaries rarely move the dial on the yen, but this summary could be different, as it covers the April meeting which was the first chaired by Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BoJ did not change its policy settings at the meeting, but there are growing expectations that Ueda will take steps to normalize policy, which would boost the yen. At the meeting, the BoJ removed guidance on rate levels which committed to maintain rates at "current or lower levels" and announced it would review its monetary policy. Ueda said on Tuesday that there were positive signs in inflation and inflation expectations, and said the BoJ would end its yield curve control (YCC) policy once it was clear that inflation would "sustainably and stably meet our 2% target". The yen did not react to these comments, but it appears that Ueda is slowly but surely making plans to shift policy and gradually wind up former Governor Kuroda's massive stimulus program, which has been the hallmark of BoJ policy for years. The US release the April inflation report later today, and indications are that CPI remains sticky, which isn't great news for the Fed. Headline inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, while the core rate is projected to tick lower to 5.5%, down from 5.6% in March. The Fed has signalled that it will pause rates next month, and this has been priced in by the markets at 78%, although there is a 21% of a rate hike, according to the CME Group. A hotter-than-expected inflation report would likely raise the probability of a rate hike and provide a boost to the US dollar. USD/JPY tested resistance at 135.37 earlier in the day. Above, the next resistance line is 137.24 There is support at 134.50 and 132.97
by OANDA
📈BTC analysis near release of CPI data📉BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD Hey everyone, first take a look at my previous BTCUSDT & ETHUSDT analysis and positions. Bitcoin may experience growth near this month's CPI data release event if inflation conditions improve. The trend is still bearish and the price takes another step for further correction with each rise Don't forget to risk-free your position. Please share ideas and leave a comment let me know what's your idea. CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
2
DXY: BRICS Creating New Reserve CurrencyHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. For the past eight decades, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency following the Second World War. It has been widely accepted worldwide, with only a few exceptions, and is commonly recognized by the image of Andrew Jackson and the seal of the U.S. Treasury, making it the most recognizable export of the United States. The U.S. dollar became the reserve currency of the world following the Second World War, mainly because the United States was the dominant global economic and military power at the time. The Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 also played a crucial role in establishing the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Under this agreement, other countries agreed to peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the U.S. dollar a stable and reliable currency for international transactions, leading to its widespread acceptance as a reserve currency. Additionally, the U.S. had a large trade surplus, making it easier for other countries to hold dollars as reserves to pay for U.S. goods and services. The dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency has been a source of both admiration and resentment among other countries and superpowers. Many countries have benefited from the stability and liquidity that the U.S. dollar provides as a reserve currency, allowing them to conduct international trade and investments with greater ease. However, some countries have also experienced the negative effects of dollar dominance, such as the risk of currency fluctuations and the potential for U.S. monetary policy decisions to have spillover effects on their own economies. The U.S. dollar was not only commonly used in international transactions but also widely held as a long-term store of value across the globe. Central banks worldwide held more U.S. dollars than any other currency. This resulted in low borrowing costs for Americans , which allowed middle-class people to buy homes. Furthermore, the U.S. government was able to incur significant debts without apparent consequences due to the dollar's global dominance. Americans may not have been aware of this situation, but it had a favorable impact on their daily lives. Occasionally, the Congress discussed the debt ceiling, but it seemed like an abstract topic that most people did not care about since America controlled the global reserve currency and could print U.S. dollars. This privilege made money cheap, and Americans enjoyed benefits that were not available to other countries. However, the thought of losing this dominance was too terrible to contemplate, and concerns began to arise around the time the Russian military entered Ukraine about a year ago. The consequences of such a loss would be dire, and it was a worrisome issue. The Russian military's invasion of Ukraine was destabilizing, as wars typically are. However, it was the West's reaction to the invasion that raised concerns. U.S. policymakers, led by USA President Joe Biden and supported by Republican senators, seemed intent on not only toppling the Russian government but also disrupting the post-World War II economic order that had benefitted the U.S. for decades. The sanctions weren't expected to harm the U.S. economy more than the Russian economy. Russia's economy is not heavily reliant on financial services but on natural resources such as oil, gas, iron, and coal . Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia, its Ruble remains stable against the US dollar, which suggests that the sanctions did not have a significant long-term impact on Russia's economy. The seizure of Russia's central bank's dollar reserves was intended to collapse Russia's credit system and cause bank runs, but it didn't happen. The USA did not consider the dangers when using the dollar, the sign of security and unity, as a weapon. The result of this is unsurprising, many countries lost confidence in the dollar. And so, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, France, China, and Saudi Arabia are conducting business in currencies other than the US dollar, such as the Chinese currency Yuan. This is happening at a fast pace and shutting out the US dollar, which is losing trust from other countries due to its use as a weapon and excessive printing, leading to inflation and currency devaluation. 💭Final Thoughts 💭 We look to history to speculate on the future. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. During the First World War, the German government borrowed heavily to finance the war effort, resulting in a significant increase in national debt. The government continued to print money to pay for its expenses, which led to hyperinflation and a collapse of the German economy in the early 1920s. In 1923, the German mark was practically worthless, and people had to carry wheelbarrows of money to buy basic goods. This hyperinflation had a devastating effect on the German people, wiping out their savings and pensions and causing widespread poverty and social unrest. The situation stabilized when the German government introduced a new currency, the Rentenmark, backed by mortgages on agricultural and industrial land which restored some degree of confidence in the currency. The German government basically inflated their currency due to excessive debt accumulated from war. The United States has a similar history with wars, relying on the reserve currency status to recover from the economic damage of these wars. However, considering the large economical impact of Russia and BRICS's contribution the the economy, it could be catastrophic due to the current state of the US economy. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are exploring the possibility of creating a new reserve currency as an alternative to the US dollar-dominated international financial system. The proposal was discussed at a virtual meeting of the BRICS finance ministers and central bank governors, with a goal to decrease the dependency on the US dollar and increase trade between member countries. However, no specific details were provided yet about the potential reserve currency. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
TVC:DXYShort
by CryptoCheck-
53
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 9/05European and US markets were relatively tame as traders focus now turns to the CPI data release ahead of the US open Wednesday. The USD found support to move up while Copper and Oil also moved higher on expectations for a lift in demand. Gold edged higher although is showing signs of selling pressure. Expecting a flat open for Asian markets as the Nikkei, ASX200 and Hang Seng were largely rangebound in overnight trading. With stronger economic data comes stickier/resilient inflation so bulls may be getting ahead of themselves as the US Fed will have to think about another rate rise if the CPI continues to show strength. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
💥 WORLD ECONOMY: ...big drop is coming? 😡Amazon rarely delays deliveries, but I ordered the crystal ball over 30 years ago and it still hasn't arrived! 😢😂 ...So, I don't know what will really happen in the coming months, but what we can do right now is try to make some considerations. The chart above represents the DJ Transportation Index , an excellent "thermometer" of US economy. If we look at a monthly time frame, we see that a deep pullback appeared after a structure with "Wave 1 Extension", so we cannot exclude that it could happen again. At the same time however, we see that the Price Action has reached an important static support around 14,000, and only its failure could confirm a bearish leg with a first target around 11,000, obviously we are talking about a monthly chart, so to confirm this hypothesis, we have to wait until the end of the month. In this historical context, many things could change in global economy, and the geopolitical situation is one of the main actors of this period. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, wide social gap, the dollar crisis, are all key factors that could still lead to uncertainty in the medium term. INFLATION and THE PRICE WAR We are well aware that a large part of the developed economy is struggling with rising prices, and even if inflation in the U.S. and in Europe it is driven by different reasons, Central Banks are using the same tools (are they wrong??) of monetary policy, , but something could change in the coming months. The most important Central Bank (Federal Reserve) could face a diabolical "pincer", because the danger of hyperinflation is the same as a potential stagflation. Thanks for your attention. A.B. ❤
DJ:DJT
by TheAnonymousBanker
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 8/05Stronger than expected employment data in the US sent bulls into a frenzy and pushed share markets higher into the weekend as recession fears eased. On the flip side, a resilient economy will flow over into inflation and mean that inflation will stay higher for longer and put further upside pressure on interest rates. US Bond yields spiked as to did the USD while Gold nosedived off highs. Copper and Oil found some love from higher expected demand. Expecting a strong open for Asian markets with the ASX200 to open up 70 points, the Hang Seng to open up 130 pts while the Nikkei may open relatively flat thanks to Fridays US market rally. With stronger economic data comes stickier/resilient inflation so bulls may be getting ahead of themselves as the US Fed will have to think about another rate rise if economic data continues to show strength. Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Forex Update: EURUSD struggling at resistance with ECB to comeToday's focus EURUSD Pattern – Resistance stall Possible targets – 1.1165 Upside 1.0965 downside Support – Resistance – 1.1065 Indicator support – ECB meeting MA slope up With the ECB to come, we are focusing on the EURUSD as price continues to be held at 1.1065 resistance. Price has continued to trade in an up trend but, for now, remains held back at resistance that started in April. The ECB could be a short-term catalyst tonight. Rates are expected to be increased by 25 points. The talk is that the ECB could step back as core inflation slowed to 5.6%, and the inflation figure sits at 7%. A larger-than-expected credit drop and tighter leading criteria are other factors that could maintain the trend of small hikes. Another 25-point hike is forecast for June. Another possibility could be a reduction in the balance sheet. QT has already been happening with a reduction in the massive bond holdings. Price-wise, we will need something positive from the ECB to drive the EURUSD higher. Price continues to weaken at resistance, and the USD, another factor, continues to firm today. If the ECB confirms that rates may not rise as much as expected, it could push the EURUSD lower, maintaining resistance. If we see a hawkish surprise in the statement, this could be enough for price to break resistance and start a new leg higher. Don't forget about the USD and tomorrow's NFP. The USD is holding above 100.80 support, and if it can form a solid comeback with a more dovish ECB could set the EURUSD up for a leg lower. Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
by Eightcap
Is 2024 is the golds, golden year?any break above the resistance line can create sharp increase in the price and push the price higher and higher. the history of chart show that every time the price was successfully braked the resistance line we saw 500 percent increase in the price value. so may be this year be a new golden year for Gold. by pushing the banking sector crisis by the fed hike rate, the probability of soar in the price of commodities and Crypto market is rising.
TVC:GOLDLong
by EQDailytrading
USD/JPY - Yen surges ahead of Fed rate decisionThe Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility, which started on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, down 1.04% on the day. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later today, and the markets are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the benchmark rate to 5.25%. The markets have priced in a 25-bp hike at 87%, down slightly from the 93% probability earlier in the week.  Investors are expecting today's increase to be a "one and done" which will wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle. The economy is cooling and inflation is easing, which has raised expectations that the Fed will embark on an extended pause and possibly cut rates before the end of the year. One could make the argument that given this economic landscape, the Fed might be better off by pausing rates at today's meeting, but it appears that Jerome Powell is determined to get the inflation genie back in the bottle as soon as possible. Inflation has eased considerably but is still running at a 5% clip, more than double the 2% target. Another factor for the Fed to consider is the re-emergence of the banking sector crisis. First Republic Bank, whose collapse was the biggest bank failure since the GFC in 2008, has had its assets acquired by JP Morgan. That was followed by a plunge in shares of two US regional banks, and there are concerns that another hike today will put even more pressure on the troubled banking sector. The crisis has dampened risk sentiment and the safe-haven yen has been a big winner with sharp gains today. The tightening in credit conditions since the bank crisis began in March is estimated to be the equivalent of a rate hike of between 25 and 50 basis points. That is unlikely to deter the Fed from the expected hike today, but it could be an important factor in future rate policy. USD/JPY is testing support at 135.30. Next, there is support at 1.3450 There is resistance at 137.57 and 138.37
by OANDA