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Inflation

BITCOIN showing some Bullish Divergence on the 3 HRBTC holding above $21500 (On the Edge! Just had a wik down to $21455!), looks to be some Bullish Divergence... It shows Divergence all the way up to about the 12 HR (Tiny one) and the daily (Micro one) LOL! Looking for a move tomorrow with the Inflation numbers. Can we get some Valentines Day love to the upside? We'll see... <--- Lots of Negative talk all over News & social so it may start making a move in the opposite direction. This is what happens when there is too much Hype for one direction IMO. Good Luck Out There!
by BuddaCo_LifeStyle
Break Down: Analysis of The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, US100 & MoreIn this video, we'll take a closer look at the charts we covered in our last live session, updating and explaining our analysis. Our focus will be on the following currency pairs: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, and US100. We're currently seeing a lot of potential for dollar strength, but it's important to keep an eye on the upcoming CPI release on Tuesday, as it could create some volatility in the markets. As a simple rule of thumb, when inflation is up, the dollar tends to strengthen, and when inflation is down, the dollar tends to weaken. However, it's not always that simple, and it's important to pay attention to the details. When evaluating the CPI data, consider the following: how much it beat or missed the estimate, whether there is mixed data, if the data was as expected, and any revisions to the previous numbers. Additionally, pay attention to the rhetoric of central bank members after the release, as this can also impact market sentiment. Our analysis of the downside trades is closely tied to the inflation data release. A strong beat in inflation would likely result in successful trades. However, a significant miss in the data could invalidate many of these trades. If you're currently not in any trades, it may be wise to wait until after the CPI release. While it's tempting to try and get ahead of the market by positioning yourself, the risk of getting caught in a ranging market before the event could result in significant losses. It may be better to wait for a clearer direction after the release. Join us as we navigate through these charts and look for possible trades in the market. Let's stay vigilant and make informed decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by natron
Reduce inflation rate from 6.5% to 3% this years, says WilliamsFOMC's Williams speech did not do much, as he was echoing what Jerome Powell already said 2 days ago. Rate hikes to resume, but at slower pace. Williams mentioned that inflation rate in the US should cool off to 3% this year, now at 6.5%. That's 50% lower. Question is, how much more rate hike is required to push inflation down by 50%? Will that be somehow somewhat slowdown the US economy as a whole? A whole lot more tightening will need to take place, as I see it. Lending has already begun to tighten and credit is more difficult to obtain due to stricter requirements by banks. Hmm... how will this play out? By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy #usdollar #usd #dxy #interestrates #useconomy #federalreserve #FOMC #inflation
TVC:DXY
by XeroAcademy
German inflation data in focusToday we will be getting German Inflation data within the next 1h and 15m. This German CPI will be in focus as Eurostat had problems in their systems the previous week and they gave an Estimation of Eurozone inflation along with estimating where possibly the German Inflation would land. So at the back of this and while German's economy is 25% of EU's GDP , we are expecting some volatility to come in play , in case we get any big deviation in German Inflation data. Now what the so wanted big deviation can be and what are we expecting at the back of this ? German inflation printing higher than 9.5% and German Harmonised inflation printing higher than 10.3% EURUSD - EURJPY 🔼 German inflation printing lower than 8.5% and German harmonised inflation printing lower than 9% EURUSD - EURCAD 🔽 -Extra notes- -Currently money markets are pricing in 41 bsp for the ECB meaning that we can go in any direction in case we get the deviation that we need and markets might price out 16 bsp (0.25% rate hike) or price in 9 bsp or more (0.50% rate hike). -In case of higher inflation metrics possible targets can be EURUSD 1.0750 - 1.0775 - 1.0800 and EURJPY 141.50 - 141.80 - 142.20 -In case of lower inflation metrics possible targets can be EURUSD 1.0710 - 1.0690 - 1.0670 and EURCAD 1.4400 - 1.4380 - 1.4360 -Preferably we want to see MoM inflation metrics aligning to the one or to the other side and not get a mixed data out of it -Higher conviction will come if headline inflation prints higher than 9.9% for the hawkish scenario or lower than 8% for the dovish scenario FX:EURUSD
by Investing_Bridge
Is Gold telling us something?Gold is forming a picture perfect Bear Flag. If this pattern breaks and triggers we have 2 downside targets. The importance of analyzing this pattern is Gold encompasses much of the macro landscape in its price action. If Gold is acting bearishly based off this pattern it could be foreshadowing a dollar strengthening. It could also foreshadow perhaps a good jobloss claims number tomorrow that could force yields higher. Whatever the catalyst may be, based off of this pattern were likely to see some additional weakness in the near term unless we break out of the bear flag upper range.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trading-Capital
Microsoft - Extreme Bearish SentimentI see a gruesome bloodbath in the American stock market. Stocks are showing heavy bearish sentiment. Microsoft rose to as high as $349. A drop started at that price point and will continue right down to 141. A BREAK OF STRUCTURE at 141 will then send the price falling to around $14 (My Point Of Interest). Things are really getting interesting!!! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Smart Money Concepts are king in the market. Move with the big sharks or get ravaged!!!
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SMCSmartSniper1
3
Fight or Flight?On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as "encouraging and gratifying". This was the point that markets took as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the idea that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets, potentially shortsightedly, adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying until one of two cases occurs: First, if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens markets into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the rate of CPI inflation. Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently between 4.5% and 4.75% whilst CPI inflation is at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th of February will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence for economic hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing seems certain, the S&P500 is likely to take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
by Coinrule
22
Don't Fight The FedOn February 1st, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released, and the Fed announced a 25bps rate hike. As such, markets started to rally. An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across both. The statement was hawkish. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell’s language in the press conference was remarkably dovish, describing the disinflation process as having started and as “encouraging and gratifying”. This was seen by markets as the signal to continue the recent rally. Precious metals, equities, and risk assets have all seen significant post-meeting relief. The first innings of a recession always appear to be somewhat of a soft landing in which inflation and growth begin to slow gradually. Yesterday’s meeting echoed the ideas that recent indicators point to a modest increase in spending and that inflation has eased, precisely what the first innings of a recession would predict. As markets shortsightedly adopt the soft landing narrative, the Fed’s lack of pushback against easier financial conditions added fuel to the fire. Given this, it is doubtful that markets will stop rallying unless one of two cases occurs: First if data comes in hot, it potentially frightens the market into thinking the Fed will turn back hawkish and raise rates more than the recently observed 25bps hike. The second scenario is the other extreme. Should data start coming in highly recessionary with lower inflation and weak growth, this will eliminate all believers in the soft landing narrative, thus halting the rally. However, at present, it looks like the market rally of 2023 could continue until either of these scenarios happen. An important thing to note is that whenever inflation has exceeded 5% in the past, it has never come back down without the Federal Funds Rate exceeding the CPI . Considering the Federal Funds Rate is currently at 4.65% and CPI inflation at 6.5%, more rate hikes are on the horizon unless data comes in highly recessionary. CPI data on the 14th will provide significant insight into whether or not the Fed will follow the likes of the European Central Bank & Bank of England and go with a 50bps hike rather than a 25bps hike. Another important thing to note is that Apple , Amazon , and Alphabet (the parent company of Google ) all missed earnings last night. If three of the world's largest companies missed earnings, it does not breed confidence in the hopes of avoiding a recession. One thing is for sure, the S&P500 will take a hit when the NYSE opens later today.
Long
by Coinrule