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Inflation

Rishi Sunak wins the UK Prime Minister raceEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 After his last competitor leaves the race, Rishi Sunak will soon become the new leader of the UK conservative party, also the nation’s Prime Minister. While the market looks forward to better financial stability in the UK, the British Pound has declined to 1.1275 against the US dollar. While the Japanese government did not confirm a previous market intervention in its currency rate, USD/JPY had surged more than 140 pips and stabilized at 148.96. USD/CAD rose to 1.3704, investors expect a 75 bps rate hike from the Bank of Canada on Thursday. EUR/USD closed at 0.9874 with minor gains, and the AUD/USD pair was last traded at 0.631, losing almost 70 pips. Gold price went below $1,650 to a closing price of $1,649.41 an ounce. Despite a slowed Chinese demand and a stronger greenback, WTI oil futures suffered only minimal losses at $84.58 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
Time for some JPY strength? The Yen is weak... The weakest against the dollar I have ever experienced in my trading career... Economically though, Japan is not in the worst situation, especially when compared to key economic figures... Current global inflation rates; US 8.2%, UK 10.1%, EU 9.9%, AUS 6.1%, CAD 6.9%... Japan 3.0% GDP growth; US -0.6% (recession), UK 0.2%, EU 0.8%, CAD 0.8%... Japan 0.9% Unemployment rate; US, UK, EU, AUS all due an increase... Japan steadily low for months The issue with the JPY weakness is the USD strength caused by raising inflation and JPY weakness caused by BOJ monetary policy USD Strength - with inflation potentially now pivoting, USD buying pressure may ease. With a 2023 recession becoming more apparent, cash could move to the Yen as a safe haven JPY weakness - the intervention is not working. The BOJ are likely to make a change in their monetary policy stance, helping to end the Yen selling. From a technical view, price is looking overbought and over-extended. A move toward the weekly 50 SMA is due. Divergence on the weekly RSI and a head and shoulder reversal pattern forming on the 1 hour. If price breaks higher, 155 may be the next level of interest, where price could start it's reversal down... The next BOJ monetary policy release is 28/10/2022...
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
The Great Reset!!!CAUTION ONLY BIG BRAINS FROM HERE ON OUT!!! White: US 10 Year Bond Yield Orange: US Debt to GDP Blue: US yoy inflation "Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to borrowers for all sorts of nominal debt, not just government debt." -- Christopher J. Neely, Vice President at St. Louis Fed. What is the Great Reset? Is it a new 1929 Crash, a new Great Depression? No. The real Great Reset is the controlled writing down of US debt-to-GDP which has reached unsustainable levels and surpassed those at the end of WW2. In fact this chart only shows government debt (orange), in truth when you add corporate and all other forms of private debt, you get a figure currently in excess of 700% of GDP. People believe inflation is the problem, they don't understand that in most of the world it is a tool for writing down debt. This was also the case in the US after WW2. How do you write down debt measured against a country's productive output? Well, the easiest way is to increase GDP, but because in reality growth is limited (in some cases almost zero), it's easiest to do this by increasing the nominal value of GDP by ramping up inflation: Nominal GDP = Real GDP * inflation factor So by increasing inflation we increase GDP nominally and we decrease our debt with respect to productivity. So what does this have to do with the chart? Look what happened after WW2, when bond yields bottomed and debt-to-GDP peaked. These two reversed over the next 40 years until 1980, when they reversed again. Look what happened to the long-term inflation in that same 1945 to 1980 period: ignoring the many short-term spikes (known as surprise inflation), the curve slopes exponentially upwards, gently at first until culminating in the inflationary spial of the late 1970s. This same process is beginning again. We will see many short-term inflation spikes in the coming years (surprise inflation) but they will mask an underlying increase in long-term inflation. What does this mean? It means your savings will be wiped out with respect to purchasing power. It means diversify into bitcoin and other dead (non-productivity related) assets over the coming decade and decouple from the fiat. The same principle applies to Eurozone and other so-called developed countries with excessive debt-to-gdp ratios. Further reading: St. Louis Fed blog entry "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword" Russell Napier interview "We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale" The truth is wealth is being transferred from the creditors, i.e. the citizen, to pay down government debt: as your savings lose purchasing power, the value of debt also vanishes. This is really why we say inflation is a tax!
TVC:US10Y
by cuibono
7
63R booked this week. Update for 23rd of October 2022Hello everyone! What a fantastic week for trading! We made insane returns(best week of the year). I have covered all the assets we trade and i mention to be very careful of being overly bearish or bullish. There are a few macro headwinds that we have to be mindful of. Here is a list of some black swan events that you should be aware of: -China intervention on Yuan -BoJ(MoF) intervention on JPY - which we believe happened on Friday -UK's political drama -Russia-Ukraine War Events that you should be aware(Central Bank week Bonanza) : -Wednesday: -Australia CPI &China GDP -BoC Rate Decision Thursday: -ECB rate decision Friday: -BoJ rate decision I hope you enjoyed the video! Hit me up in the comments if you have any questions or you have another idea!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Inorogu
1
CADJPY - LongHello dear traders. My view on cad jpy for the coming week is that it will buy at the retest level of the grey color - 4 H area of resistance which is being checked as support.The overall weekly trend is bullish. On 19 of October important CAD news will be releashed with positive forecast. If the forecast is met, the scenario will take place easily. JPY is under bearish bias for a long time and negative Trade of Balance and Inflation Rate for Japan will put buying pressure on this pair if continue to depreceate the Yen. However, we must take into account that we are approaching daily supply zone. This supply zone is my target with different layered Take profit levels on the way to it. I have pointed out the 4H 0.382 Fib level retracement (two blue lines) indicating a deeper retracment which is good for entry too. This scenario will be invalid in case of support level of 104.7 plus the violation of ascending trendline, which will indicate for me a short momentum. For now, it seems early to enter any sell, ' cause I see the bigger picture as a potential buy - still margin for the price to buy back up. Waiting for your analysis on comments. Good luck!
Long
by The_Forex_Path
Oil (adjusted for inflation). Fuel Crisis. Inflation risk.This chart is adjusted for inflation. That means it is only valid for the current value of US consumer CPI, in other words just this month. Next month it will probably have to be re-calculated. It shows that the demand of the current fuel crisis pales in comparison to demand in the wake of the 2007 financial crisis. What if we are still at the early stages in this demand cycle? Oil at $200 (in nominal price) would bring the world to a complete stop, unless of course inflation has made $200 relatively insignificant a price. Video on how inflation was adjusted for in this chart:
TVC:USOIL
by cuibono
Fed pivot indicatorThis chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief spike above, and given the length of that chart, maybe 'brief' can be a number of months But as far as what would be normal fed behavior, we're at the tightening limit for interest rates twitter.com
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by yalla-yalla-habibi
5
Inflation Rate against CPI IndexAs you can see - all crashes on SPX have been synced with the above chart dipping big time. What do we have now ? The chart hasn't even gone down - yet SPX has dipped -27%. The difference between SPX's TOP and the start of declining of Inflation Rate / CPI is of an average 15-18% decline on SPX. The only problem is that we haven't even started properly declining (circled area). Two assumptions based on this - Either we still have time in this market and this was just a correction... or... ... the fall will be huge. Personally expecting markets to recover a bit and soon inflation rate will spike down together with SPX falling. Not investing big time before seeing a proper spike down. Cheers!
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by TheSecretsOfTrading
High inflation and political crisis in the UKEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 The new UK administration led by Liz Truss is under further scrutiny as the Home Secretary resigns, while price levels have risen by 10.1% last month - the highest level since 1990. Such news has brought down the British Pound to 1.1214 towards the US dollar. Eurozone also suffers from a 9.9% inflation rate, though slightly lower than the 10.0% forecast, EUR/USD declined to 0.9771. Though the bond yield curve remains inverted, a rise in returns has fuelled the greenback's rise toward other major currencies. After minor oscillations, USD/CAD reached a closing price of 1.3764 with modest gains. USD/JPY is ever closer to the historical 150.0 level, after the currency pair closed at 149.89, and was last traded at 149.94. Sluggish employment growth in Australia has surprised the market, original estimates were set for an increase of 25,000 jobs, but ended up with 9,000 only. As a result, AUD/USD fell from 0.6325 to 0.627. Gold price was weakened by the dollar’s strength, dropping to $1,629.16 an ounce. U.S. WTI crude futures climbed to $84.52, upon news of crude oil inventories depleting 1.72 million barrels.
by Mitrade_official