Get started

Inflation

Where is the Stock Market Heading? Forecast & Analysis thread!Where is the Stock Market Heading? 📈📉 Stock Market Forecast & Analysis🧵 In this thread, we’re breaking it down for you: -TA on TVC:VIX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM TVC:VIX -Economic Data -Insights & Predictions Let's dive in friends! Not financial advice NASDAQ:QQQ Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box which is my personal strategy I use with the Wr%. As long as we stay within the confines of this Box we will continue to climb higher on the Q's outside of pullbacks. Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Held volume shelf -Wicked back above 9ema (BULLISH) -Ascending triangle patterns Measured Move has not been realized yet. $580 -Created a Hammer Candle which is a reversal candle found at the bottom of downtrends, pullback, or corrections. Had a Normal 6% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's! TVC:VIX First up we have the Volatility AMEX:SPY Index which spiked up due to the FED dropping a FUD Nuke on the markets heading and causing the largest one day volatility spike in 2024. But, as you see below we have fallen in line since that day. We have created a bearish flag pattern and broken down through the base and should continue to flush lower. Keep in mind 60-70% of breakouts (either direction) come back to retest the point of the breakout area. Could see this happen with FOMC minutes being released this Wednesday. AMEX:SPY Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. -Wicked off previous resistance flipped into support Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box and thriving! $650 2025 PT! Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Wicked back above smoothing line -Created a Hammer Candle right above 9ema Had a Normal 4.35% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's on the SPY! AMEX:IWM As I've stated in other posts the CAPITALCOM:RTY typically runs and plays catchup to the SPY and QQQ towards the end of bull runs and before the big corrections or crash comes. Weekly Chart Analysis: -At the bottom of an uptrend channel -Sitting on a massive volume shelf -At a massive S/R area -At the retest point for the Multi-Year CupnHandle breakout! With a Measured Move up to $306. Thats the same measurement of the CAPITALCOM:RTY catching back up to the $SPY. ECONOMICS:USCIR - Core Inflation Rate YoY Inflation is dead and falling like a rock! I don't hold any weight into what the FED was saying about inflation when he was the Grinch and spreading FUD. The FED is always to slow to do what is needed to be done and right now that is to continue to cut before things in the economy start to break due to higher rates. They raised rates to SLOW and they are choosing to cut rates to SLOW! What I'm seeing is we will continue to fall with small pockets of bounce backs in inflation on the overall down trend to sub 3 then sub 2 as you can see on the chart with the yellow levels. Overall Economic numbers are very positive and have been beating what the experts have been forecasting in December. We have some more data coming out this week and we will see if that trend continues. Like I said in a separate post, the FED has been talking about a boogeyman and spreading FUD but the DATA and NUMBERS show the BOOGEYMAN isn't REAL! Thanks for reading friend! If you enjoyed this analysis and forecast of the markets please like/ follow/ share if you feel I deserved it! ALL SOCIALS/ LINKS IN SIGNATURE BELOW AND PROFILE.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RonnieV29
4
NEAR Protocol NEAR Comprehensive Analysis of NEAR Protocol (NEAR/USDT) ✨⚡ Introduction NEAR Protocol is an innovative blockchain project that has gained a prominent place in the cryptocurrency market by focusing on scalability, high efficiency, and cost reduction. Today's analysis examines the technical trend of NEAR in the weekly timeframe and identifies the best entry and exit points. ✨⚔️ 1. Technical Analysis 1.1 Key Support and Resistance Levels Support: NEAR is currently at a key support level around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (4.832 – 4.993 USD), making it an important entry point. ✨ If this support is lost, the price may drop to the bottom of the range box (3.099 – 3.580 USD). Resistance: The first significant resistance is the yellow zone (5.369 – 5.731 USD), which poses a barrier to further price ascent. A breakout of this resistance on the daily timeframe could confirm a step-by-step entry strategy. The primary resistance is at the red zone (7.380 – 8.430 USD), overlapping with the top of the range box. A breakout above this level could trigger a bullish wave toward Fibonacci targets. 1.2 Bullish Targets (Targets) First target: Fibonacci 1.618 (11.921 – 13.771 USD) 🌟 Second target: Fibonacci 2.272 (20.273 – 23.379 USD) 🌈 1.3 Bearish Scenario If the key support levels are lost, the price could fall to the second gray support zone (1.715 – 1.940 USD). ⚠ 2. Indicators and Momentum 2.1 RSI Indicator The RSI is currently in the supportive range (45.63 – 49.42), indicating increasing momentum. If RSI enters the overbought zone (76.83 – 79.85), it could signal the start of sharp movements toward the aforementioned targets. 🔥 2.2 Volume Volume plays a key role in confirming resistance breakouts. If there is an increase in volume near resistance levels, the likelihood of a breakout is higher. Otherwise, the price may remain within the current range box. 3. Entry Strategy and Risk Management 3.1 Entry Strategy Step-by-step entry: Initial entry within the support zone (4.832 – 4.993 USD) Add volume if the yellow resistance (5.369 – 5.731 USD) is broken Final confirmation: Breakout of the red resistance (7.380 – 8.430 USD) and increase volume. 3.2 Risk Management Stop-loss: Place the stop-loss at the bottom of the range box (3.099 USD). Risk-to-Reward Ratio: A minimum ratio of 1:3 for the proposed entries. 4. Future Price Movement Predictions (Scenarios) Bullish Scenario A breakout above the yellow resistance and stabilization above it could push the price to the top of the range (7.380 – 8.430 USD). A move past the range top would start a bullish trend toward the Fibonacci targets (11.921 – 13.771 USD). Bearish Scenario Losing the 0.618 support and the bottom of the range will lead to a decline to the zone (1.715 – 1.940 USD). 5. Conclusion NEAR is currently at a critical level that may soon lead to significant price movements. By employing a step-by-step entry strategy and proper risk management, one can take advantage of this opportunity. Continuously monitoring trading volume and price behavior near resistance and support levels is key to success in this market. ✨ Always compare your analysis with other reliable sources and follow sound capital management principles. 🚀
Long
by alizeynali69
Frax Share (FXS)FXS Analysis 📈🔥 Introduction FXS (Frax Share) is one of the key cryptocurrencies in the DeFi space, offering a cohesive ecosystem with innovative decentralized finance (DeFi) mechanisms and a robust tokenomics structure. It has secured a prominent place among similar projects. Currently, FXS is trading within a descending channel and is approaching a significant PRZ zone (green zone). If this zone is broken, we could expect a strong upward movement. Let’s dive deeper into the technical analysis of FXS’s price action 🚀📊. Technical Analysis (TA) Key Supports: FXS is currently within a descending channel, nearing its upper boundary. The green zone, which includes both weekly resistance and the top of the descending channel, is a crucial PRZ (Price Reversal Zone). This zone is significant due to the confluence of several key technical levels, such as weekly resistance and the channel's upper boundary. If the price breaks through this zone 💥, we could see strong buying pressure enter the market, triggering a notable upward move. However, if the price gets rejected from this zone 🚫, we may see a continuation of the bearish trend or a deeper correction. Thus, this zone represents a critical turning point for determining the price’s direction. Key Resistances: If the green zone is broken, the following Fibonacci target levels could be reached: 1.272: (between 10.058 and 11.770) 1.618: (between 17.252 and 20.414) 2.272: (between 38.696 and 46.175) These levels are considered potential targets for the next upward move 🚀. It's essential to pay attention to trading volume in this zone, as an increase in volume would confirm the strength of the buying pressure and a possible breakout. A significant volume surge, especially above the average daily volume, can be indicative of the start of a larger upward trend. Predicted Critical Scenarios: 1. If the price is rejected from the PRZ zone: In the event of a rejection from the green zone 🚫, we could see a deeper correction toward the gray zone (between 1.541 and 1.813). If this area fails to hold, there is a risk of further correction toward the lower boundary of the descending channel ⚠️. In this scenario, it’s important to watch for reversal signals at these levels. RSI Indicator: The RSI is currently moving within a descending channel with a mild slope 📉. A breakout from this channel to the upside 💥 could indicate a move into the overbought (Overbuy) territory, potentially accelerating the upward movement of the price 🚀. However, if the RSI continues its downward trend, we may need to watch for lower support zones. Investment Strategy: Step-by-Step Entry: The best strategy in this situation is to enter gradually 🪜. You can start entering around support zones with reasonable volume and strengthen your position once the green zone breaks. This strategy allows you to manage risk more effectively and take advantage of any price rallies. Risk Management: To manage risk 🛡️, it’s advisable to set your stop-loss in lower support areas such as 1.541 – 1.813. This helps mitigate potential losses in case negative scenarios unfold. Volume Analysis: Trading volume is a key factor for confirming breakouts or trend continuations. If we see an increase in volume within the PRZ zone 📈, the likelihood of a breakout and a subsequent upward move increases. Any unexpected volume spike should be carefully monitored. Conclusion: FXS is at a crucial point in its price action. Given the technical analysis and current conditions, employing a step-by-step entry strategy and managing risk can help you take full advantage of this opportunity 💡. Additionally, paying attention to the PRZ zones, volume analysis, and RSI is essential for navigating this trade. These key points can guide you in making well-informed decisions for the future 🚀.
Long
by alizeynali69
Avalanche (AVAX)AVAX Analysis 📈🔥 Introduction AVAX (Avalanche) is one of the most powerful and prominent cryptocurrencies, created to address scalability issues and provide fast, low-cost transactions. With its impressive progress, AVAX has carved out a special place among other altcoins. Now is the perfect time to take a closer look at AVAX's price trend and identify key entry points to capitalize on this massive move. 💥🚀 1. Technical Analysis Key Supports: AVAX is currently in a strong upward channel 📈. The price has bounced well from the lower trendline of the channel, which serves as a strategic support level, and continues its bullish movement. After this rise, the price entered a retracement in the 0.5 Fibonacci zone 📉. This support range (32.19 - 35.83) presents an excellent buying opportunity and could be the starting point for a powerful rally. Key Resistances: On the daily time frame, the red resistance zone is a significant level. Breaking through this could signal the beginning of a larger bullish trend. If AVAX breaks this resistance, the next target will be the weekly green zone, known as the PRZ (Price Reversal Zone), which includes the weekly resistance and the middle line of the upward channel. This zone acts as a safe entry trigger for investors, and its breakout could trigger a new wave of buying. 2. Price Prediction Fibonacci Levels: If the bullish trend continues, the price could reach the 1.272 Fibonacci level (between 73.74 - 82.67) and even the 1.618 Fibonacci level (between 108.31 - 120.16). These are long-term target levels that AVAX could potentially reach on its upward path. 🌟 RSI: The RSI has risen well from the middle zone (49.23 - 52.83), indicating potential strength in the bullish momentum. 🔥 3. Investment Strategy Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Dollar-cost averaging is the best strategy in this market. This involves entering at key support zones like 32.19 - 35.83, and if the price rises to higher levels, gradually adding to your position with the right volume. This strategy allows you to ride the market’s movement at every stage. 💪 Proper Volume: Never forget to monitor trading volume carefully at support and resistance levels. If market volume is insufficient, the price may easily retrace and move back towards the lower part of the channel. Therefore, entering with proper volume and conducting precise analysis is crucial for your success. 📊 4. Risk Management Stop-Loss and Risk/Reward Ratio: It is recommended to set your stop-loss (SL) at support levels such as 19.37 - 21.87 to prevent large losses. The risk/reward ratio should be at least 1:2, meaning the potential profit should be twice the amount of risk. 💰 Critical Scenario Prediction: If the support at the lower part of the upward channel is broken, the price could retrace to the gray support zone (19.37 - 21.87). Always be prepared for market crises and make decisions based on them. ⚠️ 5. Volume Analysis Volume Analysis: Trading volume is one of the most important indicators for confirming trends. If we see increased volume at support and resistance zones, it may signal the possibility of a strong price movement. Therefore, carefully monitoring volume helps confirm the validity of price movements. 🔍 Conclusion AVAX is in a great position for growth, and with careful analysis, dollar-cost averaging, and proper risk management, investors can take full advantage of this opportunity. Pay close attention to support and resistance levels, and enter the market with suitable volume when necessary. Always stay alert to price trends and volume fluctuations to capitalize on potential profits. 💡
Long
by alizeynali69
Japan's corporate service inflation rises, yen steadyThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Christmas Day. Japanese markets are open but with most global markets closed for the holiday, the currency markets will be very quiet today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.29, up 0.08% on the day. Japanese inflation indicators have been heading higher and the upswing was repeated on Wednesday as Japan's corporate service price index (CSPI) climbed 3.0% in November. This marked a second straight month that CSPI has accelerated, after a 2.9% gain in October. CSPI measures the price that companies charge each other for services and is a leading indicator of service-sector inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan. The rise in CSPI supports the case that wages are rising and businesses are passing higher costs to consumers. This increase in demand-driven inflation is exactly what the BoJ wants to see before raising interest rates. The BoJ has hinted that further rate hikes are coming but hasn't provided any hints about the timing. There were some expectations of a rate hike at last week's meeting but the central bank stayed on the sidelines and Governor Ueda sounded dovish, saying that inflation was increasing "at a moderate rate" and the BoJ could take its time raising rates. Is Ueda throwing up a smoke screen to keep speculators away when the BoJ is in fact planning a rate hike in the next month or two? Perhaps. Inflation has been trending higher and the yen is falling fast, plunging 9.5% since Oct. 1. The yen pushed past the symbolic 160 level in July and could do so again. If the BoJ is genuinely concerned with the rapid descent of the yen, it will have to consider a rate hike or take more extreme action and intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing yen. There is resistance at 157.41 and 157.66 USD/JPY tested support at 157.15 and 156.90 earlier. Below, there is support at 156.64
by OANDA
USD/JPY calm as BoJ Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.33, up 0.11% on the day at the time of writing. The yen is having a dreadful time as it continues to lose ground against the strong US dollar. Since Oct. 1, the yen has plunged 9.5% and the yen's woes could force the Bank of Japan to intervene on the currency markets in order to prop up the ailing currency. The BoJ Core CPI index, which is closely watched by the central bank, rose to 1.7% y/y in November, up from 1.5% in October and above the market estimate or 1.5%. This release follows last week's national headline inflation release, which jumped to 2.9% in November from 2.3% in October. This was the highest level since October 2023.  The gain was driven by sharp increases in food and electricity prices. Notably, core CPI, which excludes food, rose from 2.6% to 2.7% and core-core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed from 2.3% to 2.4%. Any way you cut it, inflation is moving higher and that has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in early 2025. The BoJ held rates at last week's meeting and BOJ Governor Ueda said that since underlying inflation was only increasing "at a moderate pace", the BoJ could take its time in raising rates. However, with inflation rising and the yen pushing closer to the 160 level, the BoJ could respond with a rate hike as early as January. The BoJ is also concerned with the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to slap tariffs on US trading partners. Bank policy makers will be nervously watching if Trump moves ahead with tariffs or is his bark worse than his bite. The BoJ meets next on Jan.24, a day after Trump is sworn into office. There is resistance at 157.51 and 157.86 156.93 and 156.58 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
The Sandbox (SAND)SAND/USDT Analysis 📊 Recently, SAND has demonstrated significant performance, managing to shift its trajectory from a descending channel and reach the top of an ascending channel. Below is a more detailed analysis of the current situation and potential scenarios: ⚖️ Current Situation: Breakout from the Descending Channel: SAND has exited the descending channel and is currently undergoing a pullback. This move started from the support zone (0.19 – 0.23 USD). Current Correction: The upward wave has corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (0.45 – 0.49 USD). This level is a key zone for the continuation of the trend. Red Resistance Zone: The price is currently facing significant resistance in the range of (0.8 – 0.99 USD). A successful close above this level is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend. 🔍 Upcoming Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If the price manages to break and sustain above the red resistance zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD), the following targets become achievable: 1.618 Fibonacci: 1.41 – 1.69 USD 2.272 Fibonacci: 2.42 – 2.9 USD 2.618 Fibonacci: 3.94 – 4.98 USD High volume entry during the breakout of the red resistance zone is essential. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break through the red resistance zone, a deeper correction is likely: 0.618 Fibonacci level: 0.4 – 0.43 USD Green PRZ Zone: If the 0.618 Fibonacci level is lost, the price might drop to this zone, which includes daily resistance and the middle line of the channel. ⚙️ RSI Indicator: RSI Support: The trendline connecting the RSI lows can serve as support during a price correction. The range (33.88 – 39.26) is key for RSI support. Entry into Overbought Zone: RSI movement towards the overbought zone can push the price toward higher targets. Overextended zones (86.33 – 92.15) are accessible. RSI Middle Line: This line could act as support and help stabilize the uptrend. ⚡️ Key Points: Red Resistance Zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD): Sustaining above this zone is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend. Formation of Strong Bullish Candles and Significant Volume: Strong bullish candlestick formations and a sharp increase in volume can confirm the breakout of this resistance. Volume Consideration: High volume entry during the breakout of the resistance zone is a positive signal. Price Behavior at the 0.5 Fibonacci Level: This level serves as the primary initial support. PRZ Support Zone: In case of a correction, this zone (overlapping with daily resistance and the middle line of the channel) could prevent further price declines. 🔔 Summary: The technical analysis of SAND indicates that after breaking out of the descending channel, the price is at a critical stage. A breakout above the red resistance zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD) could open the path for higher targets. However, traders should pay close attention to price behavior around key support and resistance zones and should not neglect risk management. 🟠 Practical Suggestions: For Entering a Trade: Wait for a breakout of the red resistance zone along with high volume. Risk Management: Diversify your capital into multiple parts and set stop-loss orders below key support levels. Stay Updated: Given the constantly changing market conditions, staying updated with new analyses is essential. ⏰ Stay tuned for the next updates!
Long
by alizeynali69
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's repeated pullback in this week's trading session by upholding firmly at the Mean Sup 96000 price level within the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 103600 is now noted. Recent analyses indicate that the cryptocurrency will likely retest the completed Inner Coin Rally 103600 by navigating the weak Mean Resistance 102300. This movement is anticipated to revitalize its upward trajectory toward the projected Outer #1 Coin Rally 110000 and beyond. Furthermore, a potential decline to the Mean Support 97000 would prepare the market for the subsequent phase of a bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
Swiss National Bank cuts by half-point, Swissy dipsThe Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Today's Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether the SNB would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. In the end, the central bank opted for a jumbo 50-bp cut, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The driver for the today's oversized cut was the November inflation report, which came in at -0.1% for a second straight month. Inflation hasn't posted a gain in six months and the SNB is concerned that inflation could fall below the 0%-2% target. The 50-bp cut marks the SNB's biggest rate reduction in 10 years. In its statement, the Bank pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, risks over US economic policy and political uncertainty in Europe. The statement was somewhat dovish, noting that "the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty". Today's rate cut marks the fourth reduction this year. The SNB has been aggressive in its easing cycle, with the twin goals of avoiding deflation and combating the Swiss franc's appreciation. The SNB does not want a highly-valued Swiss franc as this hurts the critical export sector. The central bank implemented a negative rate policy until mid-2022 and the SNB has not ruled out a return to negative rates. After the meeting, SNB President Martin Schlegel said that today's 50-bp cut had reduced the probability of negative rates. The SNB also released its updated inflation forecast at today's meeting. The September inflation report was revised downwards, with a forecast of 1.1% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025. USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.8860 and is testing resistance at 0.8879. Above, there is resistance at 0.8903 0.8836 and 0.8817 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF edges up ahead of SNB rate decisionThe Swiss franc is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8845, up 0.19% on the day. 'Tis the season of central bank decisions, with four major central banks making rate announcements this week. The Swiss central bank meets on Thursday and a rate cut has been fully priced, but what will the SNB do? The market has currently priced a 50-basis point cut at 60% and a modest 25-bp cut at 40%. Just one week ago, the odds were 70-30 in favor of a 50-bp cut. Inflation declined by 0.1% in November and Switzerland hasn't posted a gain in inflation since May. The signs of deflation support the case for a jumbo 50-bp cut. Still, central banks prefer modest rate moves in 25-bp increments and with the cash rate at just 1%, policymakers may opt for a 25-bp cut. US inflation for November was a non-event for the US dollar, which has shown little movement today against the major currencies. Headline CPI ticked higher to 2.7% y/y up from 2.6% in October, while the core rate rose 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Monthly, headline CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% and the core CPI rose was unchanged at 0.3%. The data matched expectations which explains the muted response of the US dollar. In the aftermath of today's inflation data, the market expectations for a rate cut at the Dec .18 meeting have jumped. The rate odds for a quarter-point have climbed to 97%, compared to 88% immediately prior to the release. The Fed has lowered rates twice this year and is poised for a third cut next week, even though the inflation downswing has stalled and inflation remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.8853 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.8876 0.8810 and 0.8787 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBPUSD Fundamental AnalysisThe Pound Sterling trades sideways near 1.2750 against the USD as investors await the US inflation data for November. The impact of US inflation should be limited on Fed interest rate prospects unless there is a dramatic deviation from expectations. Investors expect the BoE to leave interest rates steady at 4.75% on December 19. Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous:0.2% Core Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous: 0.3% The Pound Sterling strives to reclaim the key resistance of 1.2800 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.2720. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Depending on how the inflation information is received, it could see the FX:GBPUSD claim 1.2800 or head down to 1.2500
by luak
1
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
AUD/USD soars as China's inflation dipsThe Australian dollar continues to takes traders on a roller-coaster. AUD/USD has surged 0.85% on Monday, recovering most of the 1% decline on Friday. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6443 at the time of writing. The week ended with a rebound from US nonfarm payrolls. In November, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 227 thousand, above the market estimate of 200 thousand. This followed a very weak October report, which was revised upwards to 36 thousand from 12 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The employment data has raised expectations of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 18 meeting, with the odds currently at 87%, up sharply from 62% a week ago. The Australian dollar took a tumble after the strong nonfarm payroll numbers, but has quickly recovered after China's inflation was lower than expected. In November, CPI eased to 0.2% y/y, down from 0.3% in October and short of the market estimate of 0.5%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.6%, down from -0.3% in October and lower than the market estimate of -0.6%. The weak Chinese inflation data has raised expectations that China's central bank will respond by lowering interest rates. That would help boost the economy and increase demand for Australian exports and  the Australian dollar has responded with sharp gains today. The Reserve Bank of Australia  meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6407 and is testing resistance at 0.6492. Above, there is resistance at 0.6492 0.6356 and 0.6322 are the next support lines
by OANDA
1
Australian dollar eyes GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6461, down 0.20% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s economy is expected to improve in the third quarter, with a market estimate of 0.4% q/q. This follows a disappointing gain of 0.2% in Q2, the weakest growth in five quarters, as household spending declined. On a  yearly basis, GDP is expected to tick up to 1.1% compared to 1% in the second quarter. The Australian economy continues to groan under the weight of high interest rates, which the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented in order to tame high inflation. Now that inflation has come down, there is pressure on the RBA to respond with lower rates. The RBA has become an outlier as most major central banks are in the middle of an easing cycle while the RBA has held rates for over a year. RBA Governor Bullock has remained hawkish, reiterating that underlying inflation is too high for the RBA’s liking and that a rate hike is not off the table. Headline inflation has fallen to 2.1%, well within the RBA’s target bank of 2%-3%, but the RBA remains concerned about underlying inflation, which  accelerated in October to 3.5%, up from 3.2% a month earlier. The market isn’t buying the warning of higher rates and expects the next rate move to be a cut sometime in mid-2025. That means that consumers will have to grapple with high rates for months, barring an unexpected fall in underlying inflation. In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that he is leaning toward a cut in December but could change his mind if inflation surprised on the upside. The US releases November CPI one week prior to the rate announcement and the release will be a key factor as to whether the Fed cuts or maintains interest rates. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6478 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 0.6514 0.6441 and 0.6405 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Why Cost of Living is Still a Concern?Why is the cost of living still a concern, even though inflation has declined to 2.6%? In many elections over the past two years, voters have ranked inflation as their top concern. As we can see, the prices of many commodities remain above pre-COVID levels, with gold and meat prices currently much higher than they were at the inflation peak in 2022. Consciously or unconsciously, both investors and consumers seem to feel that the cost of living will remain elevated for a prolonged period. Moreover, there is always a risk that inflation might creep back up again. Feeder Cattle Futures & Options Ticker: GF Minimum fluctuation: 0.00025 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:GF1!Long
by konhow
9