At the latest FOMC meeting on January 31st, Jerome Powell stated, 'The Fed is not ready to start cutting,' which immediately caused the yield to pivot higher. During an recent interview on Sunday, February 4th, he reiterated that the US central bank is not yet prepared to cut interest rates, resulting in another increase in the yield. Today, we will discuss the...
US Inflation Rate YoY Comparison - ECONOMICS:USIRYY Stark similarities to the beginning of the Great Inflationary Period (GIP) which ranged from 1965 - 1982. The GIP fractal is not a prediction, it only offers us perspective and context. As an example, US Inflation YoY could potentially bounce around between 3 - 4% for another 32 months as it did between 1975...
We’ve become so accustomed to headlines of ‘peak inflation’ and falling input prices that some have been throwing the wonderful ‘deflation’ word around. And we think most would enjoy a bit of deflation, as that would result in lower interest rates. However, with commodity prices (particularly oil) being a key driver of inflation, a lot of the softness can be tied...
Bottom found? US markets likely to follow EU markets very soon. I suppose to see BTC to hold the 20k$ for atleast short-term. With upcoming inflation data for july, I see a direct correlation that US inflation data will also be promising, leading to a recovery to atleast 24-25k$ in short-term. Altough rising OIL prices and commodity could mid-term again crush this...
I have created this chart based on analytical ideas of Raoul Pal. The idea of this chart is to show that we can expect a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), based on looking at the rail car freight decline. We have seen one of the sharpest declines in rail car freight. On top the leading indicator for the GDP the ISM (from the Institute for Supply Management)...
We are living in very uncertain times. I wanted to provide a couple of view in order to understand the current market situation better and determine a strategy going forward. So I have created a US consumer price indes YOY% chart. We have not seen such high interest rates since the 1970s when demographics created a demand shock and oil embargos and Iran crisis...
1980 Scenario taking place. Inflation to Deflation. 5% inflation was a big issue in 1980 and got a biggest rally of all time in dollar and inflationary products crashed hard. We are in same situation now and maybe worse. This is fundamental and technical. FED have always been a step behind the curve. The war has just paused everything that was going to happen in...
Inflation Hits Fastest Pace Since 1981, at 8.5% Through March Gasoline weighed heavily in the increases, while prices moderated in several categories. Some economists say the overall rate may have peaked. Inflation hit 8.5 percent in the United States last month, the fastest 12-month pace since 1981, as a surge in gasoline prices tied to Russia’s invasion of...
We have both technical and fundamental justifications as to why coffee is the next inflationary trade to jump into. With supply chain issues and the seasonal changes in Brazil affecting coffee production and shipping, we can expect the value of the black breakfast gold to rise. Latin American coffee farmers are also reported to have gone on strike in the last...
Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities. To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that...
RIG still holding a relatively clear channel right now. I think with the discussion on inflation it could get (and seems to have gotten) folded into the "inflation strength" conversation. "So, why exactly is Transocean a play for inflation? Well, as stated earlier, energy penny stocks have a great amount of demand to contend with. This demand increase could...
The attached chart, shows the momentum of the second super cycle of the 21st century. This cycle may surpass the record levels registered during the 2006 - early 2008 period, right before commodities crashed because of the Great Recession.
Notice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle. The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam. Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all...
One of the only potash producers listed on a US exchange. Has been left for dead for over a decade. Intrepid Potash $IPI has returned 150% since the day of the election 11/3. I am a buyer on weakness and pullbacks. If the inflation cycle really does heat up over the next few months, $IPI could make a move to $100 in 2021.
The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio. In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to...
OJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash. With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has...