Get started

Inflationexpectations

Silver is Rising!With the weakening of the U.S. labor market, expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed remain intact. In this context, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have turned downward. The dollar's depreciation in yesterday's session led to a recovery in commodities, supporting a rebound in silver prices from the 27.75 level. The inflation data to be released today will provide further clues regarding the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts. From a technical perspective, if prices hold above the 28.90 resistance level, a rise to 30.0 and then to 30.80 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 27.75 support level, it could decline to 26.75 and then to 25.70.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by primequotes
Gold predicting that Big falling rates cycle has almost overThere are several factors that can drive gold prices up in long term. Some of the key factors include: 1. Global Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value when traditional investments like stocks and bonds are perceived as risky. 2. Inflation: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high and inflation expectations are going even higher, the purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases, leading investors to turn to gold as a way to preserve their wealth. 3. Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability, conflicts, and geopolitical tensions can also drive up gold prices. In times of uncertainty or conflict, investors may seek the safety of gold as a reliable asset. 4. Central Bank Policies: The monetary policies of central banks, such as interest rate decisions and quantitative easing measures, can impact gold prices. While investors thoughts that lower interest rates and expansionary monetary policies tend to be supportive of higher gold prices are widespread, in reality - higher due to inflationary concerns interest rates are more supportive for gold prices. 5. Demand and Supply: Like any commodity, gold prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Factors such as jewelry demand, industrial demand, and gold production levels can all impact the price of gold. These are just a few of the factors that can drive gold prices up. It's important to note that gold prices can be influenced by a wide range of economic, geopolitical, and market factors. The main Graph is an Annual chart for ratio between Gold prices in US Dollars (XAUUSD) and US Inflation (USCPI). In technical terms this graph indicates that 40-years deflationary plateau, and monetary cycle of falling USD rates has almost over, while due to mentioned above reasons, Gold can start its ride to outperform inflation within many upcoming years.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pandorra
Shelter Inflation. The Tail That Wags The DogInflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024. Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the Fed is done hiking interest rates to fight inflation. 6Mo USCPI Inflation was at its lowest levels since Covid-19 pandemic in early 2023 Top 4 U.S. stock market Indices were in rally in 2023 The economy has cooled under the weight of rising interest rates, as the central bank intended, but remains surprisingly resilient. Energy prices are down. Food prices are mellowing out. But the cost of having a place to live is still rising much faster than just about every other essential. U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation Headline inflation was up 3.1% from a year ago, and so-called "core" inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 4%. But the cost of shelter, which is the biggest component of the basket of goods the BLS uses to measure the cost of living, was up 6.5%. "The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy," read the Bureau of Labor Statistics report accompanying the latest data on consumer prices. "The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase." When the covid-19 pandemic hit, the cost of housing surged as those who could afford it sought out bigger homes and many city-dwellers transitioned to the suburbs. What goes into Consumer Price Index That and a glut of savings unhindered by low interest rates combined to exacerbate what had been a long-simmering Housing crisis the U.S. But now that baked-in price hikes and rising mortgage rates spurred by tightened Federal Reserve monetary policy have put a bit of a damper on things, the housing market is also starting to cool. U.S. Single Family Home Prices in "Bubble Mode" 30Yrs Fixed Mortgage Rate is at 20Yrs Highs. 30Yrs Mortgage Annual Payment U.S. Single Family Home, only Interest. Housing prices tend to be “much stickier” than most costs, which means that when they rise we feel it more - and for longer (read - "for ever"). Housing prices do not compressed like just baked iPhone or iMac later in few years of its release. - Does all af that mean that pre-covid levels of relative housing affordability are coming back? - Sure "No". But at least American wages, which are still rising faster than before the pandemic thanks to increased worker power, will have a little chance to make up some lost ground. The issue is still Federal Reserve' lagged tightening policy, that is "The Tail That Wags The Dog".
FRED:CUSR0000SAH1
by Pandorra
🎲 Interest Rates. To Cut, or not to Cut. That is the questionJamie Dimon Sees ‘Lot of Inflationary Forces in Front of Us’, as in recent interview to Bloomberg JPMorgan CEO has warned for months that rates could stay high. Jamie Dimon said he’s still more worried about inflation than markets appear to be. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said significant price pressures continue to influence the US economy and may mean interest rates will be higher for longer than many investors are expecting. He cited costs linked to the green economy, re-militarization, infrastructure spending, trade disputes and large fiscal deficits. “There are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us,” Dimon said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “The underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to.” The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at record highs Wednesday amid optimism over monetary policy easing after a measure of underlying US inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months. Dimon said that markets have been healthy for a while, but that doesn’t necessarily predict the future. “If you have higher rates and — God forbid — stagflation, you will see stress in real estate and leveraged companies, and private credit,” Dimon said. “Stocks are very high, and I think the chance of inflation staying high or rates going up are higher than people think,” the CEO said. “My view is whatever the world is pricing in for a soft landing, I think it’s probably half of that. I think the chances of something going wrong are higher than people think.” The CEO has been warning for months that inflation could be stickier than many investors are predicting, and wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that his bank is prepared for interest rates ranging from 2% to 8% “or even more.” Dimon said that “a lot of happy talk” is why markets aren’t pricing these elements in. Even though a bigger surprise would be higher rates, Dimon said that geopolitics could create the “main stress that we’re worried about” amid the impact those dynamics have on oil and gas prices, trade and alliances. With war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, tensions in North Korea and the use of nuclear blackmail, the geopolitical situation is “very tense,” he said. When it comes to China, the right thing for America is to “fully and deeply” engage, he said. Still, the fragile relationship between the two countries makes banking in the country — where Dimon said JPMorgan has roughly 1,500 multinational clients — a riskier prospect. “They’re not leaving China, so we’re going to serve our clients there, we’re just much more cognizant the risk is higher,” he said. “You look at China from a risk-reward basis, it used to be very good, it’s not so great any more.” Basel III The financial world has been in a heated debate over US proposals tied to what’s called the Basel III Endgame — an international regulatory overhaul initiated more than a decade ago in response to the financial crisis of 2008. US regulators have decided to adjust the original proposals following substantial backlash. Dimon reiterated his comments that the proposals are excessive. “I would love to know what the end game is,” Dimon said. “Regulators should answer the question: What do you want — How do you want the system to work?” Uncertainty pushes Gold prices (XAUUSD) more higher, later than The US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday reported the April consumer-price index rose by 0.3% from March. Shelter, gas prices remain sticky. Notable call-outs from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 5.5% on an unadjusted, annual basis, a slowdown from March. The Shelter index (the largest US CPI component with near 32% weight) rose 0.4% month over month and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in core prices, according to the BLS. Sticky shelter inflation that was one of the main reason of 2007-09 Financial crisis is largely to blame for higher core inflation readings, according to economists. The main technical graph is an inverted (normalized) chart for expected Federal funds rate at mid-March 2025, based on respective Mar'25 FedFunds Futures Contract (ZQH2025). Following the upside trend, as well as forming reversed Head-and-shoulders structure, the nearest target can be around 8 1/4 - 8 1/2 over the next 12 months. Historical backtest analyses says, this scenario is not a nonsense, as in early 1980s the difference between US 10-Year T-Bond rates and US Interest rate has been already hugely negative at similar market conditions (fighting against non-stop inflation). Let's see what is next in nowadays..
CBOT:ZQH2025
by Pandorra
Macro Monday 8 - S&P500/M2 Money SupplyMACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator. For example, when there is more cash made available or too much, more cash typically gets spent. A little more can be good, too much or too sudden an increase can increase the risk of inflation. That's why the Federal Reserve constricts the money supply when inflation rears its ugly head. At present the Federal Reserve is decreasing the M2 Money supply in an effort to slow down spending in order to control and reduce the rate of inflation. Since April 2022 the M2 Money Supply has reduced from $22 Trillion down to $20.82 Trillion. The money supply and its impact on Inflation combined with current interest rates has major ramifications for the general economy, as they heavily influence job availability, consumer spending, business investment, currency strength, and trade balance. The M2 Money Supply also has a major impact on the stock market and can act as catalyst for increased purchases of stocks (when the money supply is increasing as more money is available) and can also cause the selling of stock when money supply is tight or tightening as it is at present (as less money is available in the wider economy). The Chart – Accounting for Money Supply As noted above the M2 Money Supply is reducing and it is expected that this may result in the S&P500 making lower lows as the supply of money continues to contract. The S&P500 performance looks very different when it is adjusted to account for the increases and decreases of the money supply. We can achieve this by dividing the S&P500 by the M2 Money Supply (Chart 1). Chart 1 – S&P / M2 Money Supply - Since 1996 the Major Resistance Zone has stopped every progression higher. - In 2007 a rejection from the resistance zone resulted in the Great Financial Crisis - Major recessions are labelled with red arrows & market corrections with blue arrows. - Since GFC there have been a number of rejections from the resistance zone which have coincided with notable corrections for the S&P500 (see blue arrows). - The most notable of these rejections was the COVID Crash in March 2020. - We are at the resistance zone now and it appears we are struggling to breach above it and may be rejected again. Given we have been rejected by this level 5 times since the 2007 Great Financial Crisis, it seems wise to remain cautious and expect a rejection from this level again. Chart 2 – S&P500 & M2 Money supply (Segregated) - This chart shows you the S&P price action in isolation and underneath the M2 Money Supply for reference. - The declining M2 Money supply is like a weight or float pushing and pulling the S&P500 price action in its direction. - The M2 Money supply may gravitate down towards its long term trend line over the coming year(s) and one would expect the S&P500 to follow its lead and also gravitate lower. - Interestingly, on Chart 2 you can see that the level that the M2 Money Supply and the S&P500 were at prior to the pandemic would present an S&P500 price tag of $3,350. Summary Its seems unlikely that the S&P500 is about to break higher due to the overhead long term resistance zone on Chart 1 which helped predict the last two recessions (red arrows) and a handful of corrections (blue arrows). There is a strong likelihood of continued M2 Money Supply normalization towards its long term trend line on Chart 2, especially considering Federal Reserves continued efforts to constrict the money supply through quantitative tightening to help quell inflation. These efforts will likely subdue any attempt of positive price action on the S&P500. It is important to recognise that the Dot Com Bubble in 2000 pressed through the resistance zone on Chart 1 demonstrating just how big a bubble it was. It was initially rejected from the resistance zone in March 1997, however the M2 Money Supply was increasing at this time so whilst this outcome is always possible, it does not presently seem probable with M2 Money supply decreasing and likely continuing to decrease going forward. Another potential outcome is a false break out above the resistance zone on Chart 1. We have had an unprecedented increase in to the money supply since the March 2020 COVID Crash and this could have a lagging effect which eventually pushes us over the resistance zone. Fiscal Stimulus which is harder to predict could also help us arrive at this scenario. Regardless, if these circumstances are met with continued decreasing M2 Money Supply, I believe that it would be a short lived breach of the resistance zone resulting in maybe a $4,980 S&P500 price tag (a higher high) followed by a severe correction. That is IF M2 Money supply is still decreasing as the S&P500 makes those higher highs. And finally we have to consider what most people would consider to be the most unrealistic scenario, a Dot Com Style bubble towards the top red line on Chart 1. As improbable as this is, a combination of factors could lead us into this scenario; - The aforementioned lagging effects of the unprecedented never before seen increase in the M2 Money Supply since the pandemic. - Continued or new Fiscal Stimulus from the US government. - The bullish AI narrative (which appears to be dissipating at present) This final bullish scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI hype to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? It’s hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of Quantitative Easing and Fiscal Stimulus we have to keep an open mind as the Fed tries to simmer us down from these record levels of liquidity It will be very interesting to watch these charts over coming weeks and months to see if we get our anticipated rejection from the resistance zone on Chart 1. A special mention to Ben Cowen from "Intothecryptoverse" who originally brought this style chart to my attention. My chart could be considered a snapshot of his view however I hope I have added to it in some way with the above commentary and some correlations I have noticed. Thank you for reading to the end. I hope these charts help frame todays market for you going forward. I’ll keep you posted on any major changes. PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts
Gold Market Update Exploring Trends Stay ahead in the gold market with our latest analysis! Gold prices are holding strong around $2385, with potential to breach the $2400 mark amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. Geopolitical uncertainties drive investors towards gold, making it a safe haven asset of choice. Our in-depth analysis delves into market trends, technical indicators, and trading signals to guide you through potential opportunities. Explore the impact of central bank activities and inflation expectations on gold's trajectory. Don't miss out on valuable insights – keep informed with our comprehensive gold market update
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by sabellaFX
1
Australian dollar steadies after sharp slideThe Australian dollar has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6524, up 0.19%. The Aussie plunged 1.75% a day earlier after US inflation accelerated and beat expectations. US inflation has hit a bump, as March CPI accelerated to 3.5% y/y, up from 3.2% and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This is the second straight month that inflation has risen and is raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will delay lowering interest rates. The markets have responded by slashing the odds of a rate cut in the upcoming meetings. A June cut is off the table and the odds of a July cut have dropped to 41%, down from 81% just one week ago. The Fed will understandably be reluctant to lower rates with inflation moving higher and the economy posting strong data such as last week’s blowout nonfarm payrolls. In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in April, up from 4.3% in March and beating the forecast of 4.1%. This was the highest level since November and reflected sticky services inflation. Australia’s economy has been sluggish and GDP fell to 0.2% in the fourth quarter, the weakest print in five quarters. The slowdown in China has been a key reason why the Australian economy is struggling, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. China is grappling with deflation, a worrying sign of a weak economy. March CPI fell 1% m/m, after a 1% gain in February. This was lower than the market estimate of -0.5% and the lowest inflation rate in three years. On an annualized basis, inflation dropped to just 0.1%, down from 0.7% in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.4%. China didn’t get any love from Fitch Ratings, which downgraded the country’s credit outlook to negative this week. Fitch highlighted China’s large fiscal deficits and rising government debt, although it did not lower China’s credit rating of A+. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6548 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6596 0.6464 and 0.6416 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Australian dollar slides on hot US inflation reportThe Australian dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6515, down 1.7%. The US consumer price index has accelerated for a second straight month. The March CPI rose 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest inflation rate since September. On a monthly basis, CPI remained unchanged in March at 0.4%, higher than the market estimate of 0.4%. The increase in inflation was mainly due to rising energy and shelter costs. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was unchanged at 3.8% in March and just above the market estimate of 3.7%. Monthly, core CPI rose 0.4%, matching the previous two months and above the market estimate of 0.3%. US inflation has accelerated for a second straight month, a reminder that although inflation appears under control, the final sprint to the 2% target will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve. The strong inflation report has pushed back expectations on the timing of a first rate cut, propelling the US dollar higher against the major currencies and sending the Australian dollar reeling. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has dropped from above 50% before the inflation report to 23% afterwards. Investors don’t consider a rate cut to be likely until September. In Australia, consumer inflation expectations will be released Thursday. The forecast for April stands at 4.1%, down from 4.3% in March, which was the lowest level since October 2021. As well, China releases CPI, which is expected to decline by 0.5% in March, down from 1% in February. A reading below zero would point to deflation and weakness in China’s economy. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6560 and is putting pressure on support at 0.6500 0.6638 and 0.6698 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
🔜 S&P 500. A key point between Bull Extension and Bear ReversalThe S&P 500 Index ( SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index DIA closed up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) closed down -0.83%. Stocks Wednesday saw downward pressure from the +4.1 bp rise in the 10-year T-note and a sell-off of more than -2% in key chip stocks. However, the Dow Jones Industrials saw support from blue chips such as 3M (MMM), with a gain of +5.42%, and gains of more than +1% in Travelers (TRV), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Coca Cola (KO). Stocks on Wednesday gave back some ground after Tuesday’s +1.5% rally in the Nasdaq 100 index that was sparked by optimism that the U.S. Feb CPI report was not as bad as feared and the Feb core CPI dipped to a 2-3/4 year low of +3.8% y/y. However, the Feb headline CPI of +3.2% y/y was slightly above expectations of +3.1% and was 0.2 points above last June’s 2-3/4 year low of +3.0%. Both CPI measures remain well above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Fed Breadcrumbs Fed Chair Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from having enough confidence to cut interest rates. However, the markets are discounting the odds at virtually zero that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting next week since inflation is still too far above target. The odds for a rate cut are much better for the June meeting. The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 1% for next week’s March 19-20 FOMC meeting, 13% for the following meeting on April 30-May 1, and 73% for the meeting after that on June 11-12. Economic Reports In some positive news for the housing market, the MBA mortgage applications index rose +7.1% in the week ended March 8, after rising +9.7% in the previous week. Mortgage purchases rose +4.7%, and refinancings rose +12.2%. The MBA’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the latest week fell to a 5-week low of 6.84% from 7.02% in the previous week. The mortgage rate is currently only 13 bp above the 10-month low of 6.71% posted in December. On the U.S. economic report front, the markets are awaiting Thursday’s U.S. retail sales and PPI reports. Feb retail sales are expected to show an increase of +0.8% m/m, reversing Jan’s -0.8% decline. Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.5% m/m, reversing most of Jan’s -0.6% decline. The Feb final-demand PPI is expected to rise to +1.2% y/y from Jan’s +0.9%, but the core PPI is expected to ease to +1.9% y/y from Jan’s +2.0%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) Wednesday closed down -7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +4.1 bp to 4.192%, up from last Friday’s 5-week low of 4.034%. T-note prices saw weakness on (1) carry-over bearishness from Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, and (2) Wednesday’s slight rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.31%. T-note prices also saw supply overhang with the Treasury in the market again Wednesday, along with strong corporate bond issuance. The Treasury Wednesday sold $25 billion of 30-year T-bonds, after selling $54 billion of 3-year T-notes on Monday and $42 billion of 10-year T-notes on Tuesday. Inflation Fears Oil prices rose about 3% to a four-month high on Thursday (March 14) on a surprise withdrawal in US crude inventories reported on Wednesday (March 13), a bigger-than-expected drop in US petrol stocks and potential supply disruptions after recent terrorist Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Putin says Ukraine trying to disrupt Russia's presidential election. Brent crude oil futures rose to nearly $85 per barrel - the highest mark since November, 2023. In technical terms, crude oil futures are on positive path in 2024 with near 9% YTD return, attempt to hold firmly above weekly SMA(52), while the epic triangle' breakthrough can be nearby. High Risk - High Reward S&P500 index (SPY) is on positive path in 2024 with +9.28% YTD return in this time. This is a 3rd highest YTD return by this time of year, next to 2012 and 2019 returns by mid-March. Technical graph for S&P500 indicates that we are near upper line of upside channel, thanks to recent Santa rally and slight signs of US Govt Treasuries buyout in Q4 2023. Following this path, there can a possible Bull extension, as Reversed Head-and-Shoulders Price Pattern can be in further development. On the other hand, inflation fears can extend also, just to erase all the Bullish gain in 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by Pandorra
Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6. NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast. The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report. The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months. Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Pandorra
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅ Exp: 2.8% Prev: 2.9% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅ Exp: 2.4% Prev: 2.6% Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected; ✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8% ✅ Headline PCE decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart - green area). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels. The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (see below link). PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
🔁 Are Trimble Stocks Ready For Rebound To Pre-Inflation Highs Trimble is a company that specializes in software for navigation, guidance, and control of equipment for various industries, including construction and agriculture, trades at $54 per share, about 37% below the level seen two years ago in December 2021. Looking at a slightly longer term, NASDAQ:TRMB stock has faced a notable decline of 25% from levels of $65 in early January 2021 to around $50 now, vs. an increase of about 25% for the S&P 500 over this roughly 3-year period. However, the decrease in NASDAQ:TRMB stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 31% in 2021, -42% in 2022, and about 5% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the SP:SPX have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 25% in 2023 - indicating that NASDAQ:TRMB underperformed the S&P in 2022 and 2023. In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 - equally in good times and in bad - has been quite difficult over recent years for individual stocks. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices that still above its 5 years SMA, and elevated interest rates, lets take a look could NASDAQ:TRMB face a similar situation as it did in 2022 and 2023 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months - or will it see a recovery? Returning to almost pre-inflation shock high of around $80 means that NASDAQ:TRMB stock will have to gain about 50% from here, so potentially that will not materialize anytime in extremely fast mode. Meanwhile the main technical graph says NASDAQ:TRMB stock getting a support around $40 level and breaks out its major 52-weeks SMA resistance first time over the past 5 years. Following this, it can takes the time while potentially NASDAQ:TRMB stock is ok to recover the next one pre-inflation $80-85 level.
NASDAQ:TRMB
by Pandorra
XAUUSD FOMC UP then Downtrend❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️ INFORMATION Gold (XAU/USD) rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), firmly establishing itself above the $2,025 mark, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued U.S. dollar, with risk-averse sentiment on Wall Street likely reinforcing the metal’s advance. 💲BUY GOLD 💲 💲SELL GOLD 💲 Signal Updates in chart. Followers continuously receive update. Everyone success..👍👍👍 ❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS ❤️NOTE FOMC MINUTES IN FEW HOURS ❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital ⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On ⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage ⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat ⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed ⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital ⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by My_Forex_Team
😳 TREASURY-BONDS COLLAPSE IS JUST ONE STEP AWAY TO COME BACKThe collapse in Treasury bonds in 2021-2023 now ranked among the worst market crashes in history. Since March 2020 to 2023 fall, Treasury long term bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted over 40% while the 30-year bond had plunged over 50%. That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst. The bond rout was worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%. The bond-market sell-off that's sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse again some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras. Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008. Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%. That crash came as the former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker grappled with historic inflation and pushed the federal funds rate to just under 20%. While interest rates remain well below that level today, the central bank's aggressive turn toward monetary tightening in the post-pandemic era has caused a similar bond-market rout. And some traders have continued selling amid concerns of rebounding inflation, while a deluge of Treasury issuance this year has also pressured bond prices. Technical graph for 10-year yield futures CBOT_MINI:10Y1! indicates that 52-weeks SMA support is still important for further T-Bonds pressure, while 10-year yield (unfortunately to T-Bonds holders) is still following major upside trendlines.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!
by Pandorra
Australian dollar rebounds, employment data loomsThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, up 0.54%. The Australian currency slid 1.18% on Tuesday, following the stronger-than-expected US inflation report. The Australian dollar suffered its worst one-day performance on Monday since October 2023, sinking 1.16%. This was due to the US inflation report, which fell from 3.4% to 3.1% but was higher than the market estimate of 2.9%. Core CPI remained unchanged at 3.9%, above the market estimate of 3.7%. The markets reacted to the inflation reading by paring expectations of a March rate cut to just 4%, compared to 16% prior to the report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In December, the odds of a rate cut in March were above 70%, but strong US data and the Fed’s pushback against a March cut have virtually wiped out the chances of a March move. The markets have fully priced in an initial cut in June but if the economy shows signs of weakness, a May cut is also possible. Australia releases January employment data on Thursday. The economy lost 65,100 jobs in December, with full-time employment sliding by a massive 106,600, as part-time jobs rose 41,400. We should see a rebound from these very soft numbers, with the market estimate for employment change standing at 30,000. The reading could have a significant impact on interest rate policy, as the central bank has said that its rate decisions will be data-dependent. Australia will also release inflation expectations on Thursday. The RBA will be watching carefully, as inflation expectations can translate into real inflation. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5% in January and are expected to ease to 4.3% in February. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6478. The next resistance line is 0.6514 0.6419 and 0.6383 and providing support
by OANDA
Negative Real Rates Help Japanese Yen To Further EasingFed officials last week again signaled the U.S. central bank has no pressing need to cut rates. The message gave the dollar an extra tailwind that pushed the yen to a 10-week low as traders reduced bets on how quickly the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise rates. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday there was a high chance for easy monetary conditions to persist even after the central bank ends its negative interest rate policy, which the market expects to happen as early as next month. The yen was little changed at 161 per Euro. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he was "watching FX moves carefully," uttering a well-worn phrase for the first time since Jan. 19. Traders were unfazed by the warning. The next major scheduled U.S. data release is CPI for January on Tuesday. Traders have all but ruled out a cut at the Fed's next policy meeting in March, versus a chance of 65.9% a month ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. It shows around a 60% chance of a cut by the Fed at its May meeting. By the way, short-term so-called 'real interest rates' (difference between BOJ Interest Rate ECONOMICS:JPINTR and Japanese YoY inflation ECONOMICS:JPIRYY ) turned pretty down in 2023 to minus 400 b.p. (45-years lows) - levels that were not seen in Japanese economics since mid-1970s (right hand side). In this time Japanese, 'a real interest rate' is around minus 270 b.p. and still very far below neutral Zero-level. 💡 The real interest rate is an interest rate that has been adjusted for inflation to reflect the real cost of funds to a borrower and the real yield to a lender or an investor. 💡 The main technical graph (left hand side) indicates on very strong bullish momentum over the past 3 years due to pro-inflation fears, that perhaps will push Fx FX:EURJPY pair further to its main targeted 185-yen level. 💡 30- and 60-day correlations between FX:USDJPY and FX:EURJPY are above +0.70, the two currency pairs tend to move in tandem. A rise in EUR/JPY should also see the cross climb.
by Pandorra
Market is Sensitive to what Jerome Powell is SayingAt the latest FOMC meeting on January 31st, Jerome Powell stated, 'The Fed is not ready to start cutting,' which immediately caused the yield to pivot higher. During an recent interview on Sunday, February 4th, he reiterated that the US central bank is not yet prepared to cut interest rates, resulting in another increase in the yield. Today, we will discuss the direction of the yield or interest rates in the coming months, as well as why the Fed is carefully considering its decision to cut rates this time. My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
2024 Inflation Deceleration Projection - Long GoldMy views of Inflation: In essence, the inverse correlation between gold and real rates persists, I anticipate a transition from QT to QE by the Fed come May, and subsequent rate adjustments in 2024, propelling Gold towards my $2300-$2400 target. My projection is underpinned by my forecast in the deceleration of inflation, evidenced by the significant retracement in Core CPI and Core PCE post hikes witnessed '21/'22. I anticipate a cessation QT activities by the Fed, given the satisfactory contraction in inflationary pressures, albeit with a cautious eye on the potential persistence or escalation of inflationary trends in the forthcoming periods. The question begs, will inflation be aligning with the Fed's 2% target? Yes, I believe it is, and this bolsters the thesis favoring Golds appreciation. Currently, Core CPI and Core PCE trends underscore a significant retreat from the '21/'22 peaks, courtesy of the Fed's QT regimen. As I (and markets) anticipate May cuts, I infer the Fed's QT was adequate in curbing inflation. The latency in real rate adjustments post-Fed hikes may even suggest the Fed may have even overdone QT. The forthcoming period is critical for assessing persistent versus transitory inflation dynamics, again, with an overarching trajectory into inflation's trend towards Powell's 2% target. I believe this leans towards this alignment, underpinned by mostly structural inflation rather than cyclical, structurally; attributed to post-Covid supply chain recalibrations. Although I believe cyclical inflation occurred, I believe the Fed's QT was more than enough to put the foot down. This is because the structural inflation mitigation underscored the inefficacy of cyclical monetary policies in addressing non-cyclical inflation. Though I cannot stress this enough, I still believe cyclical inflation occurred and it is a problem to present itself come '24. It seems Powell is quite tipsy, as he does not want to mess things up, after seeing headline CPI data in early January '24 on the 11th come out, Powell thinks he may have jumped the gun on his dovish FOMC meetings prior to the data. We're observing an inflation slowdown, edging towards the Fed's 2% target, with a keen eye on inflation-growth dynamics and the Fed's uncertain stance influencing inflation's trajectory. The onset of a rate-cutting cycle sees downside-skewed inflation, with the main ambiguity revolving around the extent of cuts. Post headline January '24 CPI led Powell to believe he jumped the gun to his prior dovish FOMC meeting in December '23, amid core CPI and PCE indicating steady deceleration, validating Fed's inflation target alignment. Energy's influence on headline figures contrasts with core deceleration, hinting at possible hawkish Fed shifts if core inflation is affected. The divergence between rate cuts, growth, and energy prices underscores a sort of balance, with the consensus leaning away from further hikes, closely monitoring labor and inflation trends into '24. Despite recession forecasts, '22/'23's robust labor market debunked such predictions, underscoring overlooked nominal income growth's support. Forecasting a recession in '22/'23 hinged on real income growth, bolstered by employment, easing structural inflation, and lower energy prices. Despite housing and consumer spending recovery, some argued ISM's YoY contraction, however the ISM is not meant to be seen as a YoY indicator. It's a diffusion index that reflects the breadth/growth of contraction compared to the previous month. The ISM is based on a survey on whether conditions for manufacturing business are improving or deteriorating compared to the previous month, clearly measuring that on a YoY basis makes no sense as this is a snapshot of the manufacturing sector’s current momentum, rather than a comparison to the same month in the previous year, which would be a YoY analysis. Thus, this didn't signal a recession. My early expectations of early Fed cuts are rooted in structural inflation resolution from supply chain improvements. I believe to discern the Fed's rate cut strategy, we need to understand the spread between the Fed funds rate and core inflation metrics (CPI and PCE). The disparity will signify the Fed's probable target spread, with the Fed funds rate presently surpassing core inflation. A resilient economic growth, as indicated by the Bloomberg Economic Growth Surprise Index, might lead the Fed to maintain a wider spread, hinting at 3-4 rate cuts. Conversely, a growth deceleration could validate a more aggressive 5-6 cuts. The sentiment indices from the Fed's communications suggest a preference for a narrower spread. I think Powell doesn't want to jump the gun on cuts, as I believe it would be humiliating for him to cut in May and hike in March due to a reacceleration in core inflation figures. With inflation trending towards the Fed's 2% goal, my analysis suggests potential rate cuts in 2024, alongside an Gold reaching my target $2300-$2400. The content provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. It is not intended for qualified investors only. Users should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and will not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Use this information at your own risk. Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. It is not intended for qualified investors only. Users should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and will not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Use this information at your own risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by a6ent47
3
🔁 S&P500 Index vs. Inflation. The Big, Big CyclesThe market 'bloodbath is likely to continue' with investors set to lose tens of trillions over next decade, "Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini says. orld economies are facing a "megathreatened age," with stagflation set to become a core driver of major market headwinds, "Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini said in a Project Syndicate article published recently on Friday, November 24, 2023. This will be reflected in both equity and fixed-income markets, as the downturn that investors suffered in 2022 becomes a long-term trend. "This bloodbath is likely to continue," Roubini wrote. Assuming inflation averages 5% instead of the Fed's 2% target, long-term bond yields would need to be close to 7.5% for a real return of 2.5%, he explained. But if Treasury yields rise from about 4.5% to 7.5%, bond prices will crash by 30% and equities will be in a "serious bear market," he added "Globally, losses for bondholders and equity investors alike could grow into the tens of trillions of dollars over the next decade," Roubini warned. As to why inflation will stay high, he referenced a plethora of threats, ranging from an aging workforce to deglobalization, as well as increased government spending on areas such as war and climate adaptation. But the situation is made worse by the fact that debt has boomed among both private and government borrowers, triggering a "debt trap" scenario for central banks. And efforts to reduce inflation through higher interest rates risk causing a recession among highly-leveraged borrowers, something governments want to avoid. Faced with this, central banks could raise inflation targets above historical averages, as signaled by the fact that many are pausing rate hikes despite still too-high core inflation, Roubini said. Other analysts also warn that the increase in public borrowing and spending will lead to eventual defaults, unless debt ratios are brought down. To deal with this situation, Roubini noted that some countries will simply allow higher inflation to erode nominal debt. The main technical graph, the ratio of SP500 index SP:SPX and inflation FRED:CPIAUCSL says, in this time we still is in the bullish 9/18/27 yrs cycle, however over decade or so, Roubini can be clearly right with recent warnings. Check the chart below for more details.
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
2
Red Sea Crisis: How it will trigger the market?The recent development of the Red Sea crisis does not suggest that it is going to resolve anytime soon. Which markets have already started moving? And how far will they rise this time? We are going to recap the supply chain crisis during the pandemic and also delve into the current supply chain disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, which has led to the Red Sea crisis. My name is Kon How, and my role in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures and Options: Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 per MMBtu = $10.00 Code: NG Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by konhow
6
Core and Headline CPI RELEASED (Dec 2023 figures)Core and Headline CPI (Dec 2023 figures) U.S. Headline CPI Prev: 3.1% Exp: 3.2% Rep: 3.4% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 🚨 U.S. Core CPI Prev: 4.0% Exp: 3.8% Rep: 3.9% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED - but still fell from 4% to 3.9%✅ CORE CPI FALLS BELOW 4% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2021 We have a long way to go before we reach the Fed Target of 2%. Additional info previously shared: Core vs Headline (the difference) You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line. The Feds 2% Target It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first. You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
Core and Headline CPI (Release Tomorrow Thurs 11th Jan 2024)Core and Headline CPI NEW CPI Figures released tomorrow Thursday 11th Jan 2024 @ 7:30am Central (for the December 2023 month) U.S. Headline CPI Prev: 3.1% Exp: 3.2% Rep: TBC Tomorrow U.S. Core CPI Prev: 4.0% Exp: 3.8% Rep: TBC Tomorrow Will the US Core CPI finally fall below 4% for the first time since May 2021? Core vs Headline (the difference) You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line. The Feds 2% Target It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first. You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%. I’ll update you tomorrow with the released figures PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
Top 7 inflation-induced trading opportunities this weekThis week, the focus of many traders will be on US inflation data, which will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The forecasts indicate a potential 0.2% increase in both headline inflation for December and the core rate. On an annual basis, the headline inflation rate is anticipated to rebound to 3.2% from November's five-month low of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate is likely to ease to 3.9%, the lowest since May 2021. This crucial data will be released on Thursday. In the midst of the US inflation focus, there are noteworthy inflation data releases from other countries, including Switzerland, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and Russia. This diverse set of data presents many potential trading opportunities for USD pairs throughout the week: Monday: Switzerland Inflation Rate Tuesday: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator Tuesday: Mexico Inflation Rate Thursday: Brazil Inflation Rate (before US inflation data) Thursday: China Inflation Rate (after US inflation data) Friday: India Inflation Rate Friday: Russia Inflation Rate
by BlackBull_Markets