S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 surpassed our completed Outer Index Rally threshold of 6120, rendering the Key Resistance at this level obsolete. Nevertheless, following a significant price reversal, the index breached the Mean Support level of 6049 and is approaching the critical support level established at 5995. The index could decline further, potentially reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and the Key Support at 5827.
Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position or the Mean Support level of 5995, it may ascend to the newly established Mean Resistance level of 6082, potentially extending toward the Key Resistance level of 6143.
Inflationhedge
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During last week's trading session, Bitcoin was unable to reach our designated Mean Resistance level at 101300 and has remained stagnant near the Mean Support at 95700. This trend indicates a potential continuation of the pullback, which may cross-check the Mean Support level at 95700, with the prospect of further decline toward the Outer Coin Dip identified at 89000 via additional Mean Support levels at 94400, and 92500. Conversely, should the anticipated pullback not materialize, Bitcoin may experience upward momentum, thereby testing the newly established Mean Resistance level at 98300. This development could facilitate an extension toward 101500 and beyond.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 effectively reached and tested the critical Key Resistance level at 6083. It retested the completed Outer Index Rally at 6120, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend toward the intermediate target of 6233. However, a market pullback is anticipated due to this price action. Current analyses suggest that the designated downward target is set at the Mean Support level of 6049, with potential extensions to 5995, 5936, and the Outer Index Dip at 5878.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained closely aligned with the completed Outer Coin Dip at 96000. This development suggests a potential pullback to retest the Mean Support level at 91800, with the possibility of further decline down to the Outer Coin Dip marked at 89000 before a possible resurgence in the bull market.
On the other hand, if the anticipated pullback does not occur, the cryptocurrency may experience upward momentum, retesting the Mean Resistance level at 101300. This could lead to an extension toward challenging the completed Outer Coin Rally at 108000 through Key Resistance at 106000.
Will increasing inflation accelerate XAGUSD price more?
With the looming threat of an inflation rebound, demand for both gold and silver is skyrocketing, propelling the prices up. The Trump administration's continued threat of tariffs, along with the US CPI rising to 3.0% YoY (prev. 2.9%, cons. 2.9%) in Jan, has increased demand for inflation hedges. Meanwhile, rising pressure on gold prices, which have reached all-time highs, may drive additional capital flows into XAGUSD. Furthermore, ongoing uncertainty in trade dynamics is poised to bolster silver prices further.
XAGUSD sustains its uptrend, testing the resistance at 32.50. Both EMAs widen the gap, expanding their bullish momentum. If XAGUSD breaches above 32.50, the price could gain upward momentum toward the next resistance at 33.50. Conversely, if XAGUSD breaks below EMA21, the price may fall further to the support at 31.00.
Gold Cup and Handle?Gold doesn't seem to move even with high Inflation data in the past months, possibly because the Crypto market is eating slowly it's market.
However it seems like there is potential Cup and Handle which might lead to Gold prices around 2500$ Ounce in the next few years.
A possible catalyst might be invasion of Ukraine, since Gold performs quite well during wars - however I truly Hope this never happens.
Just posting this here so I can keep track of it in the future, will update it if there is any news ahead.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the weekly trading session, the S&P 500 effectively hit critical support levels at 5996 and 5936, respectively. A downtrend presently characterizes the market, as bullish momentum is stalled. Current analyses indicate that this downward trajectory will likely persist, with anticipated retesting of the Mean Support levels of 5996, the possibility of trading at Mean Support 5936, and a significant decline to the Outer Index Dip at 5878. Should this scenario not materialize, the market is favorably positioned for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend, with the test of the newly established resistance level at 6083 and revisiting the previously completed Outer Index Rally level of 6120.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 7, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
On Monday, during the current week’s trading session, Bitcoin reached the Mean Support level of 91800 and consistently hit the targeted Outer Coin Dip at 96000. This development indicates a likely pullback to retest the Mean Support level of 91800, with the possibility of further decline down to the Outer Coin Dip located at 89000 before a potential resurgence in the bull market.
Conversely, the anticipated pullback does not materialize. In that case, the cryptocurrency may experience upward momentum, retesting the Key Resistance level at 106000 and potentially extending to challenge the completed Outer Coin Rally at 108000 and beyond.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 31, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current weekly trading session, the S&P 500 has successfully retested the significant threshold of the completed Outer Index Rally at 6123. The market is presently exhibiting a downtrend phase, as the bullish momentum appears to be temporarily suspended. Analyses indicate that this downward trajectory will likely persist, with targets set at the Mean Support levels of 5996 and potentially 5936. This considerable corrective pullback may create an opportunity for the re-establishment of a bullish trajectory toward further rally targets. Should this development occur, the market could be favorably positioned for the subsequent phase of the bullish trend, which would involve retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6120 and targeting the following Outer Index Rally levels of 6233 and the highly anticipated target of 6418.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 31, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week’s trading session, Bitcoin reached its targeted Mean Support levels, specifically at 101300 and 98000. This development indicates a probable pullback to retest the Mean Support level of 98000, with the potential for further extension to the Outer Coin Dip positioned at 96000 before a possible resurgence in the bull market occurs. Conversely, should this anticipated pullback not materialize, the currency may experience upward movement, retesting the completed Inner Coin Rally at 108000 and potentially expanding to 110000 and 114500, ultimately challenging the outermost Outer Coin Rally at 122000.
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump.
In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange.
Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March.
If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far.
In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included.
The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year.
Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show.
Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power.
Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China.
Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports.
No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out.
Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024.
The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA.
It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022.
// Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 successfully achieved our predefined target of Outer Index Rally, 6123, corresponding to the Key Resistance established at 6090. The market is currently exhibiting a phase of consolidation, as the bullish trend appears to be transiently suspended following the conclusion of the outer index rally. It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the absence of a significant corrective pullback may facilitate the re-initiation of a bullish trajectory toward additional rally targets. Such a development would position the market advantageously for the forthcoming phase of the bullish trend.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has successfully achieved and completed a significant Inner Coin Rally at the 108000 level. This development indicates a probable pullback to the Mean Support level of 101300, with the potential for further extension to the Mean Support level of 98000 before a resurgence in the bull market may occur. Conversely, should this pullback not transpire, the currency may experience upward movement, retesting the completed Inner Coin Rally at 108000 and challenging the next Outer Coin Rally at 110000 and beyond.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 attained our designated downside target of Mean Support at 5775, which initiated a robust rally. This rally enabled the index to reach our target of Mean Resistance at 5920 and advance further to the newly identified Mean Resistance at 6035. The market is currently exhibiting strong and consistent upward movement. The bullish trend appears poised to continue towards our subsequent target, the Outer Index Rally at 6123, which will be approached via Key Resistance at 6090. Following that, additional targets of 6233 and 6418 are also anticipated. However, it is essential to acknowledge that reaching the initial rally level and the subsequent targets will result in a price pullback. Such a pullback is expected to prepare the market for the next phase of the bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has seen a notable increase in volatility during this week's trading session after completing our significant Outer Currency Dip at 1.020. The interim rebound reached our target of the Mean Resistance at 1.030, as outlined in last week's chart analysis. We are now anticipating a retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020, with additional extension levels at Outer Currency Dips of 1.016 and 1.005, respectively.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has reached our significant Key Resistance level of 106000 during the current week's trading session. This development signals a retest of the completed Outer Coin Dip of the 108000 cryptocurrency before the expansion of the continued upward movement. Nevertheless, an interim decline may likely occur, leading down to the Mean Support level of 100000, with a potential further extension to the Mean Support level of 95000 before any resurgence in the bull market occurrence.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 demonstrated a robust rally, exceeding a notable support level at 5872. This upward movement, however, resulted in a significant decline of the index to a critical support level at 5870 and lower lows. The volatility associated with this upward trend has introduced instability by destabilizing the bullish trend by flagging a new downward target marked at Outer Index Dip 5645. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent support levels of Mean Sup 5770 may trigger a substantial rally, potentially leading to the Mean Res at 5920, before plunging again to drop toward the targeted level of 5645.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has surpassed our crucial Mean Resistance of 99500 in this week's trading session by plunging sharply back to a critical Mean Support of 91800. This decline suggests that a significant interim pullback may be underway, potentially bringing the cryptocurrency to the Outer Coin Dip 83400 before any resurgence in the bull market occurs. However, an interim strong upside move to Mean Res 97300 might be in the works.
DJIA Index. Shake it. Bake it. Booty Quake It. Roll It AroundMarkets were shaked this Friday after the December employment report came in much stronger than expected.
The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in November.
The Nasdaq 100 immediately dropped by about 1%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, representing its highest level since October 2023.
The strong payroll report further strengthened the case for no more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, at least for 2025.
The moves in stocks and bonds are a continuation of what's been seen in recent weeks: Following a period of euphoric optimism, investors have started to anticipate higher inflation stemming from President Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies. If the upward move in bond yields continues, Americans will feel it in a big way.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now expect just one 25-basis point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations late last year of as many as three. The chances that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled Friday morning to 28%.
Dollar index TVC:DXY rockets to the moon, while the 10-yr TVC:TNX strongly above 4.5%.
Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such a turbulence, as it's been discussed in earlier posted idea "Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point" .
I remember, the financial market has had a tough weeks in last December, 2024, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025, as I noted those time.
The market was on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it was clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting — and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead.
Dow Jones Futures has ended 6th straight RED WEEK in a row - the quite rare event.
The historical back test analysis over last 25 years indicates, it could lead to further (at least) 10 percent decline for Top-30 stock club.
The major technical graph indicates on a bearish trend in development, where major 200-week SMA support is nearly 35'700 points in this time.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 made a wild ride pullback against a very significant Mean Sup 5870. Subsequently, it rallied robustly, approaching our newly established target of Key Resistance at 5972. This upward movement is anticipated to stabilize or continue to rise, sustaining the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent resistance may trigger a substantial pullback, potentially leading to the Mean Support at 5870, which remains a plausible scenario.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As specified in the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis for December 27, an extraordinary rebound bull movement occurred from the Mean Support of 91800. Current analysis suggests a high likelihood that the cryptocurrency will continue to advance, potentially testing the Mean Resistance level of 99500 and aiming for a retest of the completed Inner Coin Rally marked at 108000. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize the possibility of a pullback to retest the Mean Support level of 91800 again before any resurgence in the bull market.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this short trading week, the S&P 500 made significant gains and is approaching our main target, Key Resistance at 6090. This movement is expected to support the next phase of the interim rebound, with the goal of breaking through the Key Resistance level at 6090 and continuing the bullish trend. However, it's important to acknowledge that a retest of the Mean Support at 5870 is still a likely scenario.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current abbreviated trading week, the Eurodollar is exhibiting a narrow trading range above the Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035. Current analysis suggests that the Euro is poised to resume its upward trajectory, with anticipated targets of Mean Resistance 1.051 and a potential extension to Mean Resistance marked at 1.060. It is important to note that a pull-down movement may occur towards Mean Support at 1.039; with a possible retest of the completed Outer Currency Dip level of 1.035, before resuming the upside movement.