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Inflationhedge

2 Key Reasons Gold Keep RisingThere are two assets being the best hedge against inflation, they are stocks and commodities, especially the precious metals. How are they performing so far? Who is the real winner and how about if inflation persists, between stock & precious metals who will perform better in the near and further future, and why? Content: • Their performance in the last: (who is the winner?) i. 50 years ii. 20 years and iii. 3 years • Market outlook if inflation persisted • 2 key reasons for gold keep rising Gold as an inflation hedge has cast a lot of doubts. I hope today’s presentation has given you a better appreciation about Gold. 2 key reasons for gold keep rising • 1st Key - Easy money policy produces inflation - We all know by now printing money will cause inflation • 2nd Key – Gold is a currency hedge Some argue that with higher interest rates to come, Gold may face greater headwinds ahead because of a stronger dollar, we will discuss Gold as a currency hedge next week. CME Micro Gold Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.1 = $1 1 = $10 10 = $100 100 = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by konhow
2
Crude oil a leading inflation indicatorTwo observation made the last two years between crude oil and CPI: 1) There were 5 waves up and 2) 3 significant peaks However, between the last 2 peaks of crude, it was a lower low follow-by its downtrend, and CPI followed this downtrend subsequently. Among many commodities, crude oil moves the most in tandem with CPI, but crude seems to lead in this study. Refer to the daily chart on your own, try drawing a downtrend line, you will see crude oil prices has broken above its downtrend line recently. If crude oil is going to transit to an uptrend from here, we will have to track CPI very closely. The inflation fear is still there. Did a video on this observation last week, refer to the link below. Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
3
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 20, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin completed the Outer Coin Rally of $21,200 and Key Res $ 21,300 on January 14 and stayed very near the outcome throughout the week - busting through on Friday with follow-through on Saturday to complete the interim Outer Coin Rally of $23,000 (Not shown 60 min chart). The pending confirmation is in the process - Once confirmed, the pullback to Mean Sup $20,600 is inevitable. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence on the upside to finalize the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
2
Correlation – Crude Oil & CPIStudies indicated Crude Oil is the best indicator to track the current inflation. It is also a leading indicator to inflation numbers? If that is true, we will have to track the crude oil prices very closely. Content: i. The most inline commodity with CPI ii. Can the Crude Oil track CPI? iii. Direction of Crude Oil Crude Oil Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.01 = $10 0.10 = $100 1.00 = $1,000 10.00 = $10,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
7
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of January 13, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The completion of Inner Index Dip 3785 was a significant upsurge platform. The upside target to the Mean Res 4820 is in the process of being finalized, and the index continuously displays a bullish influence on the current market sentiment. The additional upside moves to Mean Res 4085, with Outer Index Rally 4140 currently being at the crosshair. The sudden pullback from hitting the Mean Res 4020 is expected to Men Sup 3950.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of January 13, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar has bounced strongly from Mean Sup 1.052 as specified EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for January 6. The prevailing up path to the newly created Mean Res $1.070 and Key Res $1.078 is completed with the eye towards Outer Currency Rally 1.1100. However, be aware that this puppy is in the process of breaking downwards to newly formed Mean Sup $1.070 to reignite upward action as specified above.
by TradeSelecter
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 13, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin surged above $21,000 on Saturday for the first time in two months as the crypto rammed through our Mean Res $17,000, Mean Res $17,800, Mean Res $18,500, and Outer Coin Rally $19,100 throughout the week. The price action signifies a completed Outer Coin Rally of $21,200 (Not shown - 60 min chart) and significant Key Res $21,300 first introduced Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 11. We expect a pullback to the newly created Mean Sup of $18,800. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence on the upside to retest the Outer Coin Rally of $21,200.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Inflation Report: 11 Jan 2023Finally there is a sense of relief. The US inflation is just on a some-what downward spiral. It's almost as if we peaked at a whopping 9.1% and now dropping to around 6%. And let's not forget all our friends abroad, like Germany where it's dropped from 10. 4 in October down to 8.6%, UK dropping from 11.1% slightly down to 10.7%, Canada's 8.1 dropped to 6.8%, France's steady 6.2%, and China's decent1.6%. And let's not forget our lekker country, South Africa where inflation has also dropped from 7.8% down to 7.4%. It's just too bad all these numbers are due to supply chain issues, war, and food shortages. But it looks like we have potentially seen the end of The Great Inflation - and now things should start to settle. Your thoughts? Trade well, live free Timon (Trader since 2003)
ECONOMICS:USCCPIEducation
by Timonrosso
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of January 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend to Inner Index Dip 3785 was completed two weeks ago and retested. The upside target to the Mean Res 3880 has been finalized, and the index continuously displays a bullish influence with the current market sentiment. The additional upside moves to Mean Res 4020, 4085, with Outer Index Rally 4140 currently being at the crosshair. The pullbacks with this upcoming major rally are to be expected.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of January 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar has bounced strongly from Mean Sup 1.058 as specified EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 30. The prevailing up path to the newly created Mean Res $1.070 and Key Res $1.078 is ongoing with the current market sentiment. However, be aware there is the possibility that this puppy may break downwards from Mean Res $1.070 to reignite upward action as specified above.
by TradeSelecter
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
15
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8% for this year. If this is the case in 2023, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. We can participate in hedging the market and trading the interest rate in this example. CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study.
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 30, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin decanted closer to our Mean Sup of $16,400 throughout the week. The retest of the Key Sup $15,850 is a high probability at this time. The upward movement to retest newly created Mean Res $17,000 extending to Mean Res $17,800, Mean Res $18,500 is pending on the hitting Key Sup $15,850. However, be aware there is the possibility that this puppy may break from the current position to create upward action as specified above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter