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Inflationhedge

Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
14
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8% for this year. If this is the case in 2023, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. We can participate in hedging the market and trading the interest rate in this example. CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study.
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
1
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 30, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin decanted closer to our Mean Sup of $16,400 throughout the week. The retest of the Key Sup $15,850 is a high probability at this time. The upward movement to retest newly created Mean Res $17,000 extending to Mean Res $17,800, Mean Res $18,500 is pending on the hitting Key Sup $15,850. However, be aware there is the possibility that this puppy may break from the current position to create upward action as specified above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 23, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook The downtrend sentiment to Inner Index Dip 3785 has been completed as specified in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 16 . The upside target to the newly created Mean Res 3880 is in play, with the additional upside moving to Mean Res 4020, 4085 with Outer Index Rally 4140 currently being revived per the current market sentiment. The pullbacks with this upcoming major rally are to be expected.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 16, 2022Outer Index Rally 4140 is currently being shelved. The downtrend sentiment points to a newly created Inner Index Dip 3785, with the possibility of extension to Mean Sup 3720. The Mean Sup 3860 is a stronghold for the time being, as specified in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of December 9. The upside target to the Mean Res 3912 is likely from the current position or once the dip is completed. Of course, the question is, “From which support/outcome level will this puppy break enacting finalization of the down movement?
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 16, 2022The euro-dollar rip through our Mean Res 1.0585 but could not punch to vital Key Res $1.0780. The newly created interim Mean Res 1.0680 is the catalyst to draw the currency to retest the Mean Res 1.0680 and hit the Key Res $1.0780 in the process. The prevailing down path points to the Mean Sup 1.0450 and mildly extended probabilities to Mean Sup 1.0330. However, once the current down sentiment occurs, a furious decline to the additional Mean Support levels may likely happen. Of course, the question is, “From which support level will this puppy break playing down movement position?
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 9, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook Outer Index Rally 4140 is currently postponed. The downtrend sentiment points to a newly created Mean Res $3965, with the possibility of a support level of the Mean Sup 3860 emerging first as the primary target destination. The upside target to the Mean Sup 3965 is probable once the dip to the Mean Sup 3860 is completed. Of course, the question is always “Which way will this puppy break from the current position?”
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 9, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro dollar hit our target of the Mean Res 1.0585 twice this week. Advancement to the Key Res 1.0780 is getting more realistic and inevitable. The upcoming prevailing down path points to the new Mean Sup 1.0450 and extended Mean Sup 1.0330. However, once the current down sentiment occurs, a furious decline to the additional Mean Support levels may likely happen. Of course, the question is always “Which way will this puppy break from the current position?”
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 9, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin is continuously (Very slowly) advancing toward our leading destination of the Mean Res $17,600 and subsequently to the Outer Coin Rally of $19,100: However, the pullback to Mean Sup $16,700 is very much likely before further upward advancement. The retest of the Key Sup $15,850 is low at this time, pending the above scenario being played out. Of course, the question is always “Which way will this puppy break from the current position?”
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of November 25, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook Outer Index Rally 4060's upside target (As shown on Chart Analysis For the Week of November 18) with the additional target is potential #2 Outer Index Rally 4140. The current sentiment is confirmed by the obsoletion of the Mean Res 3995; The downside target to the newly created Mean Sup 3948 is very probable before a major rally to the above outcome. The possibility of extension to Mean Sup 3745 and beyond is delayed in the foreseeable future.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of November 18, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook Outer Index Rally 4060's upside target (As shown on Chart Analysis For the Week of November 11) is currently in progress along with potential #2 Outer Index Rally 4140; however, the newly created Mean Res 3995 is in the interim a roadblock. The downside selected target to Mean Sup 3915 is very high once the completion(s) is triggered, with the possibility of extension to Mean Sup 3745 and beyond - in the foreseeable future.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of November 18, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Following the strong Eurodollar rebound the previous week, the currency completed our designated target of the Inner Currency Rally 1.038 this week, as specified on the EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For November 11 chart. Since completing the target, the Eurodollar is in retreat mode to Mean Sup 1.0285, potentially followed to a completed Inner Currency Rally of 1.038 retests one more time. The prevailing down move is prone to pull back to our additional Mean Sup 1.014, 1.000, and 0.975. The down-trend projects for the Next Outer Currency Dip of 0.937 for the foreseeable future is being reignited.
by TradeSelecter
Metals to Break its All Time High AgainMetals to Break its All Time High. I have discussed about Gold before and in this tutorial we will study into Copper. From last week Fed chairman statement, he said “it is premature to be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go." The continuous inflation is almost a certainty into next year, and what asset or instrument works well with inflation? Content: Why interest in copper again • Fundamental • Technical 5 Major Copper Uses: • Building Construction • Electronic Products • Transportation • Industrial Machinery & Equipment • Medical Copper Consumption Worldwide: 1. China 54% 2. Europe 15% 3. Other Asia 14% 4. America 11% 5. Other 6% Source: Statista 2021 Minimum fluctuation 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 0.001 = $25 0.01 = $250 0.1 = $2,500 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:HG1!
by konhow
2