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Inflationhedge

💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale. That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too. Looking at the technicals: We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move. According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June . Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November. No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by p4917
5
XAUUSD Gold : Is Gold's recent rise a good time to buy? 17.5Let's look at facts and be practical. Gold jumped by $30 in the last 24 hours. But is this the beginning of a new rally or a dead cat bounce? 1) Gold kept to higher lows with trend-line support kept since March 2020. 2) Gold broke above consolidation triangle and continued to rally with the bullish breakout all the way to $2070 back in March this year. 3) Inflation is not going to go away, Gold is a natural hedge to that - The main reason Gold was dropping from $2070 to $1790 is overall market panic and not bad fundamentals. 4) A big part of the bearish movement was standard correction down after a big huge spike up and an overbought position. Now let's look at key levels within the immediate range and slightly longer term. 1790-1800 is key support. 1830-1840 is key resistance to break and with a 4h candle close above 1840 we can expect 1910-20 within days. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow! It would mean a lot to me. Let me know in the comments what you think of my idea and any questions are welcomed of course and will be answered in detail. I am not a financial advisor and do recommend doing your own research and being cautious when trading. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
8
GOLD got my May11 target of 1800 & bounced; 1760 destination?Update of my 11May post that gold will fall to 1800 if 1833 does not hold. It bounced from 1800 but this may not last if DXY dollar index continues higher. GC1 gold futures is doing a M-pattern & may retrace to 0.786 FIBO back down to 1760. However, if DXY dollar tops out & retrace to 100 or 97, gold will be able to hold 1800 & rally back to 1920/1900 neck of M-pattern or even 2000. Worst case scenario is 1670 although very unlikely considering a lot of funds will hedge against inflation. Gold must hold the 1800 to 1833 zone to stay above a BIG WEDGE from 2020 & to remain bullish. Otherwise the odds increases that the ultimate bottom of wedge at 1670 may be retested. Not trading advice
COMEX:GC1!Long
by xtremerider8
This idea is based on nothing, but it needs no regulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Joe Biden said Finland and Sweden would enjoy the “full, total, complete backing of the U.S.” as they apply to join NATO Ukraine ruled out ever conceding territory to Russia as part of a ceasefire deal. Andrzej Duda, Poland's President, commented that only Ukraine's parliament should decide the nation's future U.S. stock market indexes recorded their seventh straight week of losses, while earnings from the country's largest retailers disappointed on consumer taste rotation squeezing margins Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank was on on track to lift its main policy rate back to zero by the end of September. During the weekend Lagarde remarked that cryptocurrencies are "based on nothing" and should be regulated PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero welcomes the positive stance that permeated the blockchain space during the weekend, bringing BTC above USD 30.5k at the time of writing, and lifting all Layer-1 coins (with the exception of XRP) even after May 20 trades into deep positive territory. ProfZero already praised the possibly divergent trade that could be opening between the blockchain space and Wall Street - yet it would be reckless to rule out the risks inherently linked to taking positions in the same box-shaped formation already seen in weeks 2-3 of April. The bottom may not be there yet - and ProfZero definitely won't like to be the one finding out Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin joined JPMorgan Chase quant Marko Kolanovic asserting that asset prices now have fully priced a recession - but a downturn is still far from concretely materializing. ProfZero agrees that the selloff has indeed wiped value even where fundamentals were solid (think of high-quality tech like Apple, AAPL and Microsoft, MSFT, or the very same Amazon, AMZN); yet the absence of near-term catalysts to rev up markets is the biggest missing element for a rebound in the weeks and months to come The ECB indicating a quicker-than-expected exit from negative interest rates territory (Q3 instead of Q4) is in fact one of those catalysts ProfZero thinks have not been fully priced by markets as of yet - without evening mentioning the continent's ailing growth As world leaders meet in Davos after a two-year pandemic break, key on the agenda is de-globalization and new "fault lines" in geopolitcs. Speaking of which - whose fault, actually?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Inflation in the driving seat - Tech the circuit breaker? ⚡️INVESTMENT CONTEXT After a brief break, the rout in equity markets resumed at full speed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 4.04% and 4.73%, respectively, marking the worst day in Wall Street since 2020 Turkey is set to veto the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, as it resents the countries for their stance on Kurdish groups considered "terrorists" American big-box retailer Target (TGT) lost a quarter of its market value on May 18 in its worst one-day loss since 1987 - the very same thing happened the day prior to Walmart (WMT) on shifting consumption China is reportedly in bilateral negotiations with Russia to replenish its oil reserves Blockchain assets keep tumbling - yet the selloff appears to be tempering PROFZERO'S TAKE After taking a breather and in fact attempting to stage a rebound, U.S. equities collapsed over 4% in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as fears of recession/stagflation gripped investors. No later than May 18, ProfZero cautioned against bull traps - sudden, brief equity rallies that could trick into believing the bottom has finally been reached. Market fundamentals keep telling a different story - As Adam Posen put it, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is marking the end of the globalization era that kept inflation unnaturally low for two decades. ProfZero sees inflation here to stay (so long, "transitory") until new paradigms emerge for energy (U.S. energy possibly biting into OPEC+ dominance), soft commodities (re-activation of Ukraine ports could bring relief across cereals and fertilizers) and semiconductors (reshaping of global supply chains). Yet, ProfZero is puzzled by the apparent markets' distaste for technology stocks - in the words of Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella, digital technology is indeed one of the most powerful deflationary forces. A call definitely worth heeding On May 19, Sri Lanka’s central bank confirmed that the country missed a deadline for foreign debt repayments, thus earmarking the first sovereign default in the Asia-Pacific region this century, according to Moody’s. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government said that the State would stop repaying its international debt to conserve foreign currency reserves for imports such as fuel, medicine and food. The default, sized at USD 51bn, was sadly within ProfZero's radar - and might now be followed by others in developing countries, as the costs for basic staples become unsustainable Catalysts fail to emerge also on the geopolitical front. The internal confrontation clogging NATO on the accession of Sweden and Finland may in fact rupture into wider ripples, which could end up bolstering Russia's ambitions now that its troops gained control of razed port-city Mariupol. As China warned of a "dangerous situation" forming in Taiwan, while reportedly sourcing crude oil from Russia, ProfZero can't help seeing the looming risk of ramifications spreading from the Ukraine conflict, with anything but predictable outcomes The European Commission announced a USD 220bn plan to end the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas by 2027. The proposal entails importing gas from other countries, accelerating the transition to renewable energy and reducing energy consumption. ProfZero concurs that many good things start with good plans. ProfZero also thinks though that in over 20 years it has seen many good plans in EU - remaining just good plans A taunt in the meltdown: why crypto's fallout is slowing? Have we all run out of shorts?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
GOLD to retest 1760 pivot after breaking TL @1833 & 1800(0.854)After rejected by 2000 level, GOLD is making a M-pattern & has retraced pass 1800, a 0.854 Fib level. It has broken the diagonal Trendline @ 1833 (0.786 Fib level). It is very likely that GOLD will go down to retest 1760 pivot (100% retracement) where it has bottomed multiple times before. 1760 will also be a 0.786 retracement of the entire rally from 1677 Aug2021 bottom to 2078 the Mar2022 Top. Going lower towards 1677 to retest a trendline from 2019 will make wave 4 a regular flat. It is essential that 1677 must hold or else there will be a lower low after the 2078 slightly lower high or almost equal high. Breaking 1677 will mean a total 20% crash from ATH & that will put gold at the doorstep of a bear market correction. The next supports are way down at 1450/1500 (retesting a longterm Trendline from 2006) & 1170. Not trading advice
COMEX:GC1!
by xtremerider8
Inflation is high, Why gold price falling?As traders, of course.. We know that when inflation is too high, safe haven prices such as gold will soar. But that only applies before 2009. Before bitcoin was launched for the first time. Not many traders know, that market participants such as banks, big institutions, fund managers, and big companies trust bitcoin as a safe-haven, which actually competes with gold. When inflation is too high, market participants will move their money between bitcoin and gold. So this is one of the reasons why gold falls when inflation is too high. We can clearly see from the short-term chart above, that gold is bearish but bitcoin is bullish, and vice versa, the unidirectional correlation between bitcoin and gold. However, when the USD is optimistic about strengthening, both will be equally bearish. It can be concluded that both are the same as hedging asset. Also, we can use COT data from CFTC and LME to know gold and crypto sentiment and correlation. Coinbase and JPMorgan can also be considered. But I'll discuss this separately in the next explanation. Hopefully this can help anyone, so that it can be considered for trading in gold and bitcoin. Practicing how to understand market behavior is much better than just understanding.
SAXO:XAUUSDEducation
by DNP-FX
DJP holds TL or GANN support @37; FIBO levels dictate INFLATION!DJP, a commodities play, is an inflation hedge. If DJP breaks 37 voiding the Trendline or GANN FAN line support, then inflation may have peaked out temporarily. Holding 37, DJP may see higher inflation numbers.\ Note that all impt FIBO levels are respected here in increments of 4. 37 is the 2.618 level of 31 to 27. If 37 holds, the next resistance is at 41, the 3.618 & next higher high is 45 the 4.618 level. If 37 breaks, the next support is 33, @1.618 FIBO. Not trading advice
AMEX:DJPLong
by xtremerider8
One Way to Hedge Inflation: REITsOne way to hedge a high inflation rate is to invest in REITs. Dividends can help offset some of your higher costs. This is touted all over at this time, but don't throw darts at random REITs. And to be honest, chances are your small fund manager could probably use your guidance if you're well-educated on the markets. The same due diligence is required for any investment even if you are only investing for the dividends. The share price doesn't matter as much as the company's Income, but good Income for high dividends comes from a strongly managed company, as always. This is important because you'll hold the position for a while. Start with the technical analysis to pick the REITs you'll research further. We do this at TechniTrader by starting with our scans, which look for improvement in the trend and also our large-lot indicator set. Example: NVST came up on TechniTrader scans today because it's attempting a bottom at a previous buy zone which is at the lows of a long-term trading range and it has improving indicators, technical and fundamental. All good there to start more fundamental analysis, but solid risk analysis requires confirmation of that bottom fully developing before taking action. Next, we check the TechniTrader fundamentals, which focus on how strong the institutional holdings AND holders are, the most important financial metrics and more. If all is good there, then we put the stock on a watchlist to wait for the chart patterns to set up for the best entry and risk to profit profile. For all investing and trading, a step-by-step plan for confirming when execution takes place once you've done the work to pick the best opportunities is the difference between the retail crowd and the professionals who make a living in the markets. Happy TechniTrading! Please Like and Follow if you're going, "Right? Why didn't I think of that?!" There's more where that came from at my website.
NYSE:NVSTEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
GOLD: FALLING WEDGE, NEW LONG OPPORTUNITY?Hello Fellow Gold Bugs! From a technical perspective, Gold is forming the falling wedge pattern. The trend analysis also indicates a bullish movement. Therefore, We expect Gold will move upward to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions* FOLLOW and LIKES FOR MORE CONTENTS AND UPDATES
TVC:GOLDLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
BTCUSD Bitcoin: The short-term answers to the test ;) 20.4 A wall of text would do you guys and gals no good.. so let's jump to business! 1) Higher lows on short-term and longer-term time-frames. 2) Big triangle consolidation on 4H chart marked with arrows on highs and lows. 3) Around current rates (41,600) is an important resistance (triangle consolidation top) - Once surpassed, the next level is (43,300) - A break above this rate would allow significant upside to the high 40k's and low 50k's which will be covered once relevant. 4) Critical support levels stand at: 40,000 and 38,500 - A drop below would allow 35,000 weekly support to be tested. **The rockets represent: -Green one is a break above 43,300 which would allow immediate rally -Red one is a break below 38,500 which would allow immediate flash crash to 35,000. **Fundamentals are strong for Bitcoin as inflation continues to surge, Russia is now implementing cryptocurrency is an official form of payment, Biden is looking to regulate crypto-currency, etc,etc.. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you liked my analysis, please follow and like :D I would truly greatly appreciate it. If you have any questions, please ask me and I promise to answer in detail if necessary. My target is to benefit as many traders as possible. Thank you!! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Exactus
XAUUSD Gold : 20.4 , Decision making time! Focus up!Guys and gals, let's shut down emotion and think. Connecting higher lows since the beginning of 2022 show strong support between 1935-1940. Is there any fundamental change to what is going on for the last 4 month? Is inflation gone away? Is certainty back controlling the market? If the answer is NO, why would Gold break down this significant level? Inflation and uncertainty is extremely bad and getting worse, providing strong fundamental backwind for the Gold to continue to rally. Also, from a technical perspective, we see a 'falling wedge' pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern of consolidating highs and lows in a sharp slope down. With a break above the 'falling wedge' - Once again, a new high will be targeted for Gold, with 1960, 1980, 2000, as immediate possible targets, a break above 1954 with a close would be founded confirmation. If Gold breaks below 1935, it could could continue down to 1890 - This is the less likely scenario and would be a surprise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow, would be amazing for me ;D If you have any questions please don't hesitate to message me/ask here. My goal is to help as many traders as I can make sense of the markets. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
4
XAUUSD Gold : Don't trade today ,18.4, without seeing this! Let's preform a quick surgery on the Gold's chart ;) 1) Gold broke higher than a big weekly triangle consolidation on 8th of April 2022 once price surged above 1945 and confirmed with a close above. 2) Another consolidation in the shape of a wedge took place between 8th of April 2022 to 12th of April 2022 until price surged above 1960 and confirmed with a close above. 3) What launched both of the above points (breakouts) - Is a 'reverse head and shoulder pattern' which is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. Feel free to read about it and expand your knowledge. A close above the neck-line of 1965 allowed for the continuation of the up-trend. 4) Currently Gold is facing resistance around 1995-2006 , with a close above - The new technical target would be to retest the ATH of March, ~2070. ***It's important to note that the clear bullish technical pattern is supported by strong bullish fundamentals of inflation and uncertainty*** ***It's important to note that Gold may not go up in a straight line and may retest support levels of 1980, 1960 and 1940 - But even so, the big picture trend would still be bullish*** ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for going through my analysis, it's highly appreciated. If you found it useful - It would be amazing for me if you would like and follow. My goal is to help the trading community maximize it's potential -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
2
Inflation: long term top or century breakout?Inflation Hits Fastest Pace Since 1981, at 8.5% Through March Gasoline weighed heavily in the increases, while prices moderated in several categories. Some economists say the overall rate may have peaked. Inflation hit 8.5 percent in the United States last month, the fastest 12-month pace since 1981, as a surge in gasoline prices tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to sharp increases coming from the collision of strong demand and stubborn pandemic-related supply shortages. Fuel prices jumped to record levels across much of the nation and grocery costs soared, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its monthly report on the Consumer Price Index. The price pressures have been painful for American households, especially those that have lower incomes and devote a big share of their budgets to necessities. But the news was not uniformly bad: A measure that strips out volatile food and fuel prices decelerated slightly from February as used car prices swooned. Economists and policymakers took that as a sign that inflation in goods might be starting to cool off after climbing at a breakneck pace for much of the past year. In fact, several economists said March may be a high-water mark for overall inflation . Price increases could begin abating in the coming months in part because gasoline prices have declined somewhat — the national average for a gallon was $4.10 on Tuesday, according to AAA , down from a $4.33 peak in March. Some researchers also expect consumers to stop buying so many goods, whether furniture or outdoor equipment, which could begin to take pressure off overtaxed supply chains. By Jeanna Smialek NYT April 12, 2022
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by youknowram
BITCOIN: CPI Report Can make it Fly Again #InflationhedgeCheck our video just now on Inflation (CPI Release): BITCOIN is the Best asset that makes sense to us when Inflation is high: The perfect hedge against it. CPI report is being released in a few minutes and it's expected to be INFLATED... Inflation is the Greatest Bull of All Times, something like Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls: 🏆 Goat Of All Bulls Of All Times 🏆 07:53 The trade we like to take at every CPI report is Bitcoin LONG: BITCOIN- Awaiting CPI Inflation Data Just remember to have some patience (buy a dip if you see it?) and most importantly: HEDGE with a short on Nasdaq (That's what we do here and it works nicely, do your research and do as you please at your own risk). Americans blame it on Putin but this is partially the truth... CPI was exploding anyways, it has to do with printing more than it has to do with invading Ukraine: nypost.com let's wish for PEACE. The professor is EXTREMELY DISSAPOINTED by the World Leaders and all the nonsense. US and Russia need to come to reason and stop fighting till the 'Last Ukrainian'. All this horrible situation must stop NOW before more people die and before inflation destroys everything..unless that's what the big bosses are aiming for... ..in the meantime, Buy some Bitcoin maybe? Do as you please and as you know. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
Long
by FX_Professor
12
Cup and handle forming on GLD! Time again to keep an eye on the price of GLD! There are many factors that come into play with the price of gold. Our outlook remains bullish here technically and fundamentally. With the Fed having printed TRILLIONS over the last couple of years due to the pandemic they have drastically increased the supply of the dollar. This act has of course contributed to the inflation numbers we have been seeing over the last couple of months. With the value of the dollar decreasing, we've seen drastic increases of value in multiple commodities such as lumber, nickel, copper, oil, natural gas...etc. As we see the dollar decrease further an inflation to continue higher it is only a matter of time before real money (Gold) starts to become the center of attention. The headwinds against this in the short term is the Fed's decision to taper the purchase of bond assets so they can increase interest rates to "fight" inflation. The only problem with this is that we don't believe the Federal Reserve will really commit to fighting inflation via rising rates. Consensus for 2022 rate hikes at the moment is sitting around 4. This would likely put rates at around 1% by the end of 2022. If we include 2023 projections, we'll be looking at rates around 2% in 2 years (maybe 3% with more aggressive estimates). This flat out won't be enough to fight the inflation numbers that we're seeing. Now if the Fed DOES decide to actively fight inflation and increase rates to upwards of 7% to fight this inflation, they will stunt economic growth and send markets spiraling downwards. We simply don't see the current regime at the Fed willing to do this. The only choice we have is to live with the current inflation for years and years to come.
AMEX:GLDLong
by ThirtyninethParallelInvestment
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Is Bitcoin Really an Inflation Hedge?Theoretically, Bitcoin's fixed monetary supply makes it an inflation hedge. Unfortunately, markets don't give a shit about your theories. Price action is the final answer. Bitcoin's price action has failed to trend higher with oil and gold. Bitcoin has rallied during risk-on periods and fallen during risk-off periods. Bitcoin's price action proves that the majority of market participants are treating it as a high-risk speculation vehicle and NOT as a hedge. Bottom line: The market is always right. If you make decisions based on theory or ideology and not price action, you will often find yourself on the wrong side of the market.
BITTREX:BTCUSD
by iamroot