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Inflationhedge

ProfZero likes relief trades, but calls BTC overheat for now 🤒INVESTMENT CONTEXT After choppy negotiations, the EU finally agreed on May 31 to ban oil and petroleum products from Russia, with a temporary exception for imports carried via pipeline Inflation reading in EU for the month of May scored 8.1% on a yearly basis, well above median analyst estimates of 7.8% and April 7.5% reading, underscoring inflation is still far from having peaked Insider buying at S&P 500 companies in May has been the strongest since March 2020, signaling that blue chip executives have called the bottom on their stocks President Joe Biden said on May 30 that the U.S. will not send Ukraine long-range rocket systems that could attack Russian territory, in an apparently de-escalatory move Blockchain assets confidently extended gains even as market sentiment persists in Extreme Fear territory, with BTC attempting to regain 32k in upward channel breakout PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero reads the latest signals from the West to Ukraine as underwhelming, and only mildly conductive of greater resolve to bring the conflict to an end. In fact, ProfZero and ProfOne already remarked the faltering cohesion of the bloc on crude oil could only translate into yet deeper fractures on natural gas, especially as the buy season for winter 2022-2023 is now reaching its peak Russia has signaled its willingness to facilitate the unhindered export of grain from Ukrainian ports to destination countries, in coordination with Turkey. The move may represent a major relief to several Middle Eastern and North African economies (Egypt, Lebanon, Libya and Tunisia in particular) that rely for at least half of the daily cereal supply from Ukraine - and a deflation factor on soft commodities at large ProfZero highly values insider buying to read bull cycles - definitely another relief element in the picture ProfZero is amongst those not caught off-guard by EU spike in inflation in May. As it was shared for the past month, there simply is no corner of the economy as of now from which price decreases could originate. Brent prices in fact keep swelling, and on May 30 they broke through USD 120/boe, a major technical as well as fundamental indicator; the embargo on two-thirds of crude imports from Russia certainly will not contribute to bringing prices down. With the ECB still expected to officialize its monetary policy, it is easy to see mounting pressure to for tighter interest rate increases - with all too known prospective effects on markets The two-day rebound staged by blockchain assets has reached a standstill, with BTC nonetheless trading firmly above USD 31.5k, pulling up the entire asset class (noteworthy overperformance of Layer-1 asset ADA, up 45% in 3 days). Yet ProfZero sides with rather bearish analysts, interpreting the rally as largely a relief trade out of oversold territory. Still, seeing BTC breaking out of the 2-week range-bound channel and potentially setting for leg (D) of a bearish Elliott wave may concur to moderately optimistic scenario in the short term PROFTHREE'S TAKE ProfThree and ProfZero agree - it’s time to talk about gold. Bullion has historically been responsive to changes in the Fed’s monetary policy, as well as to fluctuations in bond yields and US dollar. ProfThree doubts the recent slowdown in U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print points to the peak of inflation already being at our back; in fact, the +50bps interest rate hikes expected for July and August are clear pitfalls ahead for zero-yielding gold. On a balancing note, ProfZero and ProfThree concur gold shall still enjoy price support on persistently higher inflation, and on Central Banks bolstering reserves in the wake of volatility
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
BTC decouples from stocks but something is not right. BULLTRAP?BTC in the past week drops while stocks rise big time last Friday. But Why? In the chart, BTC is still unable to get back inside the wedge & may be going lower. It may be that investors are selling BTC to rotate into stocks & also bonds when they see the FED not overly hawkish & the $Dollar & 10 yr yield stabilizing & may be having a shortterm top. It would be better if we can use BTC as a hedge against rising rates, rising inflation & falling stocks. That we need to see. If the correlation of BTC with risk assets is still valid, this may be a bulltrap. Retails FOMO in last Friday may see a rugpull next week as they realize that the underlying conditions in the market remains unchanged. Not trading advice
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by xtremerider8
XAGUSD Silver : Stairway to heaven? Bull flag behemoth! 25.5A "bull flag" is a bullish candlestick pattern which is defined by - 1) A linear movement up (flag pole) 2) A tunnel or channel which is on top of the linear movement up (flag) 3) A break above the top of the channel which is the continuation of the up-trend (target) The target is the size of the flag pole movement stretched from the breakout of the tunnel. In this specific case the long-term target is around $45. The tunnel or channel range is between 20.20 - 26.20 Looking at the MACD we are furthest away from the baseline since March 2020 and showing convergence similar as back than before the flag pole movement of $17, which of course is a very bullish technical sign. Silver is fundamentally bullish as well due to rising inflation globally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would truly mean a lot. If there's anything you'd like to ask or comment, don't hesitate - It's the fuel to keep me going. I am not a financial advisor and I encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when trading. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Exactus
4
DXY USD Index : Greatest dive of USD on the way? 23.5Friday & today we can clearly see recovery of metals & crypto -But not stocks. Meaning, inflation hedging instruments are on the rise while the USD is diving. Makes a lot of sense. What makes much less sense is the rally of USD between March to last week, the last 9-10 weeks. It was pushed by rate hike news and overall panic/investment liquidation. But this is obviously a very temporary phase. What happens when the dust settles? Investment will be resumed. Where will the money go? Where every news article you see daily suggests. Inflation hedging instruments. Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.. Now let's look at the technicals : 1) Trend-line since the beginning of March 2022 rally is broken down. Suggesting immediate down-trend in potential. 2) Head & Shoulder pattern with a 102.20 neck-line is suggesting a possible bounce as retest of the trend-line breakout at around 103. If no bounce up from neck-line happens and it continues lower - The next target is likely to be 101.20 - 100.80 very quickly and continued escalation up of metals and crypto. 3) 103.80-104.50 was key horizontal resistance of many, many years. It makes a lot of sense that it would stretch up to test it and would settle for highest point. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found idea useful, please like and follow - It would mean a lot to me :) I'm here to answer any and all questions and comments , don't hesitate to ask. I hope you are doing well with your trading and encourage you to be cautious and do your own research when trading. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:DXYShort
by Exactus
4
💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale. That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too. Looking at the technicals: We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move. According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June . Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November. No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by p4917
5
XAUUSD Gold : Is Gold's recent rise a good time to buy? 17.5Let's look at facts and be practical. Gold jumped by $30 in the last 24 hours. But is this the beginning of a new rally or a dead cat bounce? 1) Gold kept to higher lows with trend-line support kept since March 2020. 2) Gold broke above consolidation triangle and continued to rally with the bullish breakout all the way to $2070 back in March this year. 3) Inflation is not going to go away, Gold is a natural hedge to that - The main reason Gold was dropping from $2070 to $1790 is overall market panic and not bad fundamentals. 4) A big part of the bearish movement was standard correction down after a big huge spike up and an overbought position. Now let's look at key levels within the immediate range and slightly longer term. 1790-1800 is key support. 1830-1840 is key resistance to break and with a 4h candle close above 1840 we can expect 1910-20 within days. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow! It would mean a lot to me. Let me know in the comments what you think of my idea and any questions are welcomed of course and will be answered in detail. I am not a financial advisor and do recommend doing your own research and being cautious when trading. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
8
GOLD got my May11 target of 1800 & bounced; 1760 destination?Update of my 11May post that gold will fall to 1800 if 1833 does not hold. It bounced from 1800 but this may not last if DXY dollar index continues higher. GC1 gold futures is doing a M-pattern & may retrace to 0.786 FIBO back down to 1760. However, if DXY dollar tops out & retrace to 100 or 97, gold will be able to hold 1800 & rally back to 1920/1900 neck of M-pattern or even 2000. Worst case scenario is 1670 although very unlikely considering a lot of funds will hedge against inflation. Gold must hold the 1800 to 1833 zone to stay above a BIG WEDGE from 2020 & to remain bullish. Otherwise the odds increases that the ultimate bottom of wedge at 1670 may be retested. Not trading advice
COMEX:GC1!Long
by xtremerider8
This idea is based on nothing, but it needs no regulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Joe Biden said Finland and Sweden would enjoy the “full, total, complete backing of the U.S.” as they apply to join NATO Ukraine ruled out ever conceding territory to Russia as part of a ceasefire deal. Andrzej Duda, Poland's President, commented that only Ukraine's parliament should decide the nation's future U.S. stock market indexes recorded their seventh straight week of losses, while earnings from the country's largest retailers disappointed on consumer taste rotation squeezing margins Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank was on on track to lift its main policy rate back to zero by the end of September. During the weekend Lagarde remarked that cryptocurrencies are "based on nothing" and should be regulated PROFZERO'S TAKE ProfZero welcomes the positive stance that permeated the blockchain space during the weekend, bringing BTC above USD 30.5k at the time of writing, and lifting all Layer-1 coins (with the exception of XRP) even after May 20 trades into deep positive territory. ProfZero already praised the possibly divergent trade that could be opening between the blockchain space and Wall Street - yet it would be reckless to rule out the risks inherently linked to taking positions in the same box-shaped formation already seen in weeks 2-3 of April. The bottom may not be there yet - and ProfZero definitely won't like to be the one finding out Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin joined JPMorgan Chase quant Marko Kolanovic asserting that asset prices now have fully priced a recession - but a downturn is still far from concretely materializing. ProfZero agrees that the selloff has indeed wiped value even where fundamentals were solid (think of high-quality tech like Apple, AAPL and Microsoft, MSFT, or the very same Amazon, AMZN); yet the absence of near-term catalysts to rev up markets is the biggest missing element for a rebound in the weeks and months to come The ECB indicating a quicker-than-expected exit from negative interest rates territory (Q3 instead of Q4) is in fact one of those catalysts ProfZero thinks have not been fully priced by markets as of yet - without evening mentioning the continent's ailing growth As world leaders meet in Davos after a two-year pandemic break, key on the agenda is de-globalization and new "fault lines" in geopolitcs. Speaking of which - whose fault, actually?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Inflation in the driving seat - Tech the circuit breaker? ⚡️INVESTMENT CONTEXT After a brief break, the rout in equity markets resumed at full speed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping 4.04% and 4.73%, respectively, marking the worst day in Wall Street since 2020 Turkey is set to veto the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, as it resents the countries for their stance on Kurdish groups considered "terrorists" American big-box retailer Target (TGT) lost a quarter of its market value on May 18 in its worst one-day loss since 1987 - the very same thing happened the day prior to Walmart (WMT) on shifting consumption China is reportedly in bilateral negotiations with Russia to replenish its oil reserves Blockchain assets keep tumbling - yet the selloff appears to be tempering PROFZERO'S TAKE After taking a breather and in fact attempting to stage a rebound, U.S. equities collapsed over 4% in both S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as fears of recession/stagflation gripped investors. No later than May 18, ProfZero cautioned against bull traps - sudden, brief equity rallies that could trick into believing the bottom has finally been reached. Market fundamentals keep telling a different story - As Adam Posen put it, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is marking the end of the globalization era that kept inflation unnaturally low for two decades. ProfZero sees inflation here to stay (so long, "transitory") until new paradigms emerge for energy (U.S. energy possibly biting into OPEC+ dominance), soft commodities (re-activation of Ukraine ports could bring relief across cereals and fertilizers) and semiconductors (reshaping of global supply chains). Yet, ProfZero is puzzled by the apparent markets' distaste for technology stocks - in the words of Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella, digital technology is indeed one of the most powerful deflationary forces. A call definitely worth heeding On May 19, Sri Lanka’s central bank confirmed that the country missed a deadline for foreign debt repayments, thus earmarking the first sovereign default in the Asia-Pacific region this century, according to Moody’s. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government said that the State would stop repaying its international debt to conserve foreign currency reserves for imports such as fuel, medicine and food. The default, sized at USD 51bn, was sadly within ProfZero's radar - and might now be followed by others in developing countries, as the costs for basic staples become unsustainable Catalysts fail to emerge also on the geopolitical front. The internal confrontation clogging NATO on the accession of Sweden and Finland may in fact rupture into wider ripples, which could end up bolstering Russia's ambitions now that its troops gained control of razed port-city Mariupol. As China warned of a "dangerous situation" forming in Taiwan, while reportedly sourcing crude oil from Russia, ProfZero can't help seeing the looming risk of ramifications spreading from the Ukraine conflict, with anything but predictable outcomes The European Commission announced a USD 220bn plan to end the EU’s reliance on Russian oil and gas by 2027. The proposal entails importing gas from other countries, accelerating the transition to renewable energy and reducing energy consumption. ProfZero concurs that many good things start with good plans. ProfZero also thinks though that in over 20 years it has seen many good plans in EU - remaining just good plans A taunt in the meltdown: why crypto's fallout is slowing? Have we all run out of shorts?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
GOLD to retest 1760 pivot after breaking TL @1833 & 1800(0.854)After rejected by 2000 level, GOLD is making a M-pattern & has retraced pass 1800, a 0.854 Fib level. It has broken the diagonal Trendline @ 1833 (0.786 Fib level). It is very likely that GOLD will go down to retest 1760 pivot (100% retracement) where it has bottomed multiple times before. 1760 will also be a 0.786 retracement of the entire rally from 1677 Aug2021 bottom to 2078 the Mar2022 Top. Going lower towards 1677 to retest a trendline from 2019 will make wave 4 a regular flat. It is essential that 1677 must hold or else there will be a lower low after the 2078 slightly lower high or almost equal high. Breaking 1677 will mean a total 20% crash from ATH & that will put gold at the doorstep of a bear market correction. The next supports are way down at 1450/1500 (retesting a longterm Trendline from 2006) & 1170. Not trading advice
COMEX:GC1!
by xtremerider8
Inflation is high, Why gold price falling?As traders, of course.. We know that when inflation is too high, safe haven prices such as gold will soar. But that only applies before 2009. Before bitcoin was launched for the first time. Not many traders know, that market participants such as banks, big institutions, fund managers, and big companies trust bitcoin as a safe-haven, which actually competes with gold. When inflation is too high, market participants will move their money between bitcoin and gold. So this is one of the reasons why gold falls when inflation is too high. We can clearly see from the short-term chart above, that gold is bearish but bitcoin is bullish, and vice versa, the unidirectional correlation between bitcoin and gold. However, when the USD is optimistic about strengthening, both will be equally bearish. It can be concluded that both are the same as hedging asset. Also, we can use COT data from CFTC and LME to know gold and crypto sentiment and correlation. Coinbase and JPMorgan can also be considered. But I'll discuss this separately in the next explanation. Hopefully this can help anyone, so that it can be considered for trading in gold and bitcoin. Practicing how to understand market behavior is much better than just understanding.
SAXO:XAUUSDEducation
by DNP-FX
DJP holds TL or GANN support @37; FIBO levels dictate INFLATION!DJP, a commodities play, is an inflation hedge. If DJP breaks 37 voiding the Trendline or GANN FAN line support, then inflation may have peaked out temporarily. Holding 37, DJP may see higher inflation numbers.\ Note that all impt FIBO levels are respected here in increments of 4. 37 is the 2.618 level of 31 to 27. If 37 holds, the next resistance is at 41, the 3.618 & next higher high is 45 the 4.618 level. If 37 breaks, the next support is 33, @1.618 FIBO. Not trading advice
AMEX:DJPLong
by xtremerider8
One Way to Hedge Inflation: REITsOne way to hedge a high inflation rate is to invest in REITs. Dividends can help offset some of your higher costs. This is touted all over at this time, but don't throw darts at random REITs. And to be honest, chances are your small fund manager could probably use your guidance if you're well-educated on the markets. The same due diligence is required for any investment even if you are only investing for the dividends. The share price doesn't matter as much as the company's Income, but good Income for high dividends comes from a strongly managed company, as always. This is important because you'll hold the position for a while. Start with the technical analysis to pick the REITs you'll research further. We do this at TechniTrader by starting with our scans, which look for improvement in the trend and also our large-lot indicator set. Example: NVST came up on TechniTrader scans today because it's attempting a bottom at a previous buy zone which is at the lows of a long-term trading range and it has improving indicators, technical and fundamental. All good there to start more fundamental analysis, but solid risk analysis requires confirmation of that bottom fully developing before taking action. Next, we check the TechniTrader fundamentals, which focus on how strong the institutional holdings AND holders are, the most important financial metrics and more. If all is good there, then we put the stock on a watchlist to wait for the chart patterns to set up for the best entry and risk to profit profile. For all investing and trading, a step-by-step plan for confirming when execution takes place once you've done the work to pick the best opportunities is the difference between the retail crowd and the professionals who make a living in the markets. Happy TechniTrading! Please Like and Follow if you're going, "Right? Why didn't I think of that?!" There's more where that came from at my website.
NYSE:NVSTEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
GOLD: FALLING WEDGE, NEW LONG OPPORTUNITY?Hello Fellow Gold Bugs! From a technical perspective, Gold is forming the falling wedge pattern. The trend analysis also indicates a bullish movement. Therefore, We expect Gold will move upward to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions* FOLLOW and LIKES FOR MORE CONTENTS AND UPDATES
TVC:GOLDLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
BTCUSD Bitcoin: The short-term answers to the test ;) 20.4 A wall of text would do you guys and gals no good.. so let's jump to business! 1) Higher lows on short-term and longer-term time-frames. 2) Big triangle consolidation on 4H chart marked with arrows on highs and lows. 3) Around current rates (41,600) is an important resistance (triangle consolidation top) - Once surpassed, the next level is (43,300) - A break above this rate would allow significant upside to the high 40k's and low 50k's which will be covered once relevant. 4) Critical support levels stand at: 40,000 and 38,500 - A drop below would allow 35,000 weekly support to be tested. **The rockets represent: -Green one is a break above 43,300 which would allow immediate rally -Red one is a break below 38,500 which would allow immediate flash crash to 35,000. **Fundamentals are strong for Bitcoin as inflation continues to surge, Russia is now implementing cryptocurrency is an official form of payment, Biden is looking to regulate crypto-currency, etc,etc.. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you liked my analysis, please follow and like :D I would truly greatly appreciate it. If you have any questions, please ask me and I promise to answer in detail if necessary. My target is to benefit as many traders as possible. Thank you!! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Exactus
XAUUSD Gold : 20.4 , Decision making time! Focus up!Guys and gals, let's shut down emotion and think. Connecting higher lows since the beginning of 2022 show strong support between 1935-1940. Is there any fundamental change to what is going on for the last 4 month? Is inflation gone away? Is certainty back controlling the market? If the answer is NO, why would Gold break down this significant level? Inflation and uncertainty is extremely bad and getting worse, providing strong fundamental backwind for the Gold to continue to rally. Also, from a technical perspective, we see a 'falling wedge' pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern of consolidating highs and lows in a sharp slope down. With a break above the 'falling wedge' - Once again, a new high will be targeted for Gold, with 1960, 1980, 2000, as immediate possible targets, a break above 1954 with a close would be founded confirmation. If Gold breaks below 1935, it could could continue down to 1890 - This is the less likely scenario and would be a surprise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow, would be amazing for me ;D If you have any questions please don't hesitate to message me/ask here. My goal is to help as many traders as I can make sense of the markets. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
4
XAUUSD Gold : Don't trade today ,18.4, without seeing this! Let's preform a quick surgery on the Gold's chart ;) 1) Gold broke higher than a big weekly triangle consolidation on 8th of April 2022 once price surged above 1945 and confirmed with a close above. 2) Another consolidation in the shape of a wedge took place between 8th of April 2022 to 12th of April 2022 until price surged above 1960 and confirmed with a close above. 3) What launched both of the above points (breakouts) - Is a 'reverse head and shoulder pattern' which is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. Feel free to read about it and expand your knowledge. A close above the neck-line of 1965 allowed for the continuation of the up-trend. 4) Currently Gold is facing resistance around 1995-2006 , with a close above - The new technical target would be to retest the ATH of March, ~2070. ***It's important to note that the clear bullish technical pattern is supported by strong bullish fundamentals of inflation and uncertainty*** ***It's important to note that Gold may not go up in a straight line and may retest support levels of 1980, 1960 and 1940 - But even so, the big picture trend would still be bullish*** ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you for going through my analysis, it's highly appreciated. If you found it useful - It would be amazing for me if you would like and follow. My goal is to help the trading community maximize it's potential -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
2
Inflation: long term top or century breakout?Inflation Hits Fastest Pace Since 1981, at 8.5% Through March Gasoline weighed heavily in the increases, while prices moderated in several categories. Some economists say the overall rate may have peaked. Inflation hit 8.5 percent in the United States last month, the fastest 12-month pace since 1981, as a surge in gasoline prices tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to sharp increases coming from the collision of strong demand and stubborn pandemic-related supply shortages. Fuel prices jumped to record levels across much of the nation and grocery costs soared, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its monthly report on the Consumer Price Index. The price pressures have been painful for American households, especially those that have lower incomes and devote a big share of their budgets to necessities. But the news was not uniformly bad: A measure that strips out volatile food and fuel prices decelerated slightly from February as used car prices swooned. Economists and policymakers took that as a sign that inflation in goods might be starting to cool off after climbing at a breakneck pace for much of the past year. In fact, several economists said March may be a high-water mark for overall inflation . Price increases could begin abating in the coming months in part because gasoline prices have declined somewhat — the national average for a gallon was $4.10 on Tuesday, according to AAA , down from a $4.33 peak in March. Some researchers also expect consumers to stop buying so many goods, whether furniture or outdoor equipment, which could begin to take pressure off overtaxed supply chains. By Jeanna Smialek NYT April 12, 2022
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by youknowram