Market Myth - Gold and InflationMarket Myth - Gold and Inflation
Consumer price inflation is up but Gold is down. That’s not unusual.
Gold , they say, is the ultimate consumer price inflation hedge . The famous story goes that a Roman strutting his stuff down Via Sacra back in Emperor Nero’s day nearly two thousand years ago would have paid an ounce of gold for his top-of-the-market toga, sandals and belt. In 2021, with the euro price of Gold hovering just above €1,500, a chic Roman posing down Via del Corso would have paid that for his Salvatore Ferragamo designer suit, his Gucci shoes and accoutrements.
Gold bugs point to this as evidence that Gold is the ultimate currency because it has held its store of value for millennia. Whilst that may be true, shorter time frames reveal a rather messy picture.
The chart above shows the U.S. dollar price of Gold versus the annualized rate-of-change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index ( CPI ). If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then, as the CPI is accelerating, the Gold price should be advancing. The black shaded areas show that there have been five occasions since 1980 when the opposite was true, the last year being a good example. On the other side, the Gold-Inflation myth would allude to the price of Gold declining as CPI was decelerating. The white shaded areas show five occasions since 1970 when this was not the case, 2007 to 2010 being a prime example.
In fact, the correlation coefficient between the two series turns out to be MINUS 0.43, meaning that not only does no relationship appear to exist, if any does, it’s a negative one. I can hear my old econometric lecturer asking if we’re comparing apples and apples. Well, I suppose we could look at the correlation between the annualized rate-of-change between both series. That turns out to be 0.41. Positive, at least, but still no evidence of a relationship. Even being generous and comparing the Consumer Price Index itself ( which, of course, has risen inexorably ) with the price of Gold gives a correlation coefficient of 0.83. Much better but more akin to the Roman story than anything else. The evidence suggests that, whilst Gold might go up over the long-term as the CPI chronically advances, shorter time frames, which can last years, suggest no relationship at all.
“ Poppycock !” the gold bugs say, “ Gold goes up whether we have inflation or deflation. ” It’s true, consumer price deflation during an economic collapse such as in the 1930s may well see the free-market price of Gold advance as people seek it as a survival hedge. During the Great Depression, the fixed price went up from $20.67 to $35 per ounce. But this was a blatant devaluation of the U.S. dollar by the government, not because people were buying Gold; they weren’t allowed to, and, anyway, FDR had stolen their holdings.
In conclusion, therefore, the recent relationship between Gold and the CPI has not been unusual in an historic context. What happens next? Thankfully, Gold is a free market these days, so the Elliott waves should guide us. Stay tuned.
Inflationhedge
XAUUSD LONG TO 1974This here is my Gold long analysis long term back up to 1974 to cover all the imbalance created throughout 2021. This here is a sell to buy trade. I still expect one more wave down towards 1735-1710 in order to grab liquidity for the year. After that move is complete, Gold will be ready for its yearly Bull run. Possibly even possible to create a yearly high now that the long term correction is about to be finished.
If you look back on my profile and see my further analysis, this here is an ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS. My main analysis is Gold shorts down towards 1570.
I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
Bitcoin a Leading indicator of Inflation.... maybe ?We are now discovering the relationship between Bitcoin and inflation. This seems to be a leading indicator, possibily bitcoin is tell us the future of inflation. With Tappering in place and rate rises next year its likely this trend will continue!
GOLD Long Gold has recent broken out of its previous resistance zone around 1790, currently expecting a retest of that zone to find a long entry. Also, with stagnant interest rates and the US expecting inflation until mid 2023 we can expect the price of gold to increase as many will use it as a hedge against inflation.
XAUUSD LONG TO 1837I am currently looking to buy Gold again as a retracement. Last month we saw Gold drop roughly 1000 PIPS to the downside in a very sharp move showing that Gold is currently in a downtrend. Looking at market structure, we can see that Gold has been been creating a corrective pattern which also indicated a loss of momentum for sellers, hence why we've seen ZERO Gold moves this ENTIRE MONTH.
This here was officially Wave 1 of the new downtrend. The move back up to 1826-1837 will be the corrective wave (Wave 2). Depending on how market reacts around that zone, we can start looking at a deeper move down towards 1670-1640 as our next target.
I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors. Drop a like if you agree with the analysis and want to see more!
SHORT ON GOLD - SUPPLY & DEMANDGOLD is currently at a key supply zone, marked out on the 30M timeframe. Previously, GOLD has rejected this zone with strong momentum, and we can already see strong selling pressure at this zone.
We've just seen a huge bearish engulfing candle formed the 30M timeframe, creating a new lower low. I am now looking for GOLD to come up to supply once more to complete the head & shoulder pattern making that lower high which so happens to line up with the 61.8 Fibonacci level.
I personally believe GOLD is heading higher into the 1800 (Golden zone) where we have another supply zone, however GOLD has started to reject the 30M supply zone instead but please do trade with caution!
Long-term- I believe GOLD is going to break out of this range and head up to the mid-1800 area in the next few weeks/months. This idea is fuelled by the high inflation rate around the world, specifically the US where they are at a 38 year high of 6.8%. GOLD is seen as a hedge against inflation and with concerns over the new Covid variant, investors may start moving their money into safer assets such as GOLD / US Dollar / Japanese Yen.
This is merely a possibility and a trading idea so please do trade with caution and ensure correct risk management is implemented.
Good luck and let me know your thoughts!
PLATINUM LONG TO $1400Similar to all the other commodities, it seems like Platinum could be getting ready for another bull run in 2022, after spending most of this year declining. Not much volume in the markets right now, but this could be used as a chance by buyers to accumulate momentum in order to push it up when volume re-enters in 2022. Could still see just a little push lower to take out September lows & grab liquidity, but overall, this would be the right price to invest into Platinum.
I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors.
Bitcoin Still Looking HealthyFor the past week bitcoin has been trading between roughly $50K and $47K as I predicted on December 3rd as BTC broke it's trend line. Upon breaking the trend, volume spiked to highs not seen since July. This forced the price to around $42k before settling in the previously stated range. Since then we have seen volume decline. This price behavior could be in part due to uncertainties in macro forces such as real estate in China, federal reserves possible taper speed up and T Bill rate hikes. This is also reflected in the "Fear and Greed" index which sits at 27 indicating fear. However, the recent Congressional meeting regarding regulation showed progression towards better crypto regs. Add that to CPI numbers coming out as 6.8% which makes which makes Treasury bonds negative yield even deeper. Some analysts make strong claims that these numbers are deeply undervalued. Either way, in my opinion, this could be positive for assets with limited supply. Especially monetary assets such as Gold, and Bitcoin. For now, I stay with my previous prediction of trading in the 50K to 47K range before continuing higher. What's your price prediction? If you enjoy my insight (or don't) please consider tipping or leaving your valuable feedback. Thank You!
XAUUSD LONG TO 1826This analysis is a possibility. Although I see Gold dropping lower towards 1745-1735, we might see a move up first towards 1824 as a correction. Markets giving signs of moving both ways so this here is RISKY trade as both buyers & sellers will get trapped. I am not taking this long position yet, waiting for a retest of 1777 as a confirmation before opening a position.
I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors✅
XAUUSD LONG TO 1824This analysis is a possibility. Although I see Gold dropping lower towards 1745-1735, we might see a move up first towards 1824 as a correction. Markets giving signs of moving both ways so this here is RISKY trade as both buyers & sellers will get trapped. I am not taking this long position yet, waiting for a retest of 1777 as a confirmation before opening a position.
I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors✅
GOLD IS SET TO MOVE LOWERHello traders & investors!
We have nice setup for Gold. On daily it was rejected at important daily supply zone. Now we are stuck in little range and we can expect some sideways action.
Once we start breaking lower, it should be a vicious move.
My targets are $1676.91 & $1611.34 . Personally I am not trading it, will look for good places to add bullion at blueish ractangle.
That's it, very simple concept :)
This is not a financial advice. Until the next one!
Gold fails to build upward momentum - key areas to watchGold fell on Friday to record a 2 week low and Monday it has failed to sustain any significant upward momentum. The dip has come after Gold recently hit a 9 month high. The precious metal continues to trade at levels at around PRICE
Resistance remains strong at $1848. After that bulls will target the multi-month high at $1877. This was last touched on Tuesday. Meanwhile, $1834 has been a strong support and it remains to be seen if gold will be able to hold this level. A collapse could see price head down to levels near $1810 and then bears will be targeting a fall to the psychologically significant $1800 figure.
The term ‘inflation hedge’ has gained further relevance recently with the US printing a 3 decade high inflation figure. Gold has lagged behind equities this year, but analysts will be looking at whether it could be set for a run up with a risk-off sentiment. Austria has entered a full lockdown and many countries in Europe are battling rising Covid-19 cases. Further lockdowns could increase the inflation hedge case for gold.
Meanwhile, the dollar has shown strength which has helped to cap any gold gains. Hawkish noises from the Fed along with rising yield bonds have given it a boost in recent days.
Wednesday will be key for short-term Gold price. We will receive FOMC minutes and other data releases from the US that will influence both the dollar and gold. Will the Fed take action earlier than expected to curb inflation? So far, it seems that the market is pricing in a rate hike.
CHCI Easy 20% Gain and Hedge Against InflationCompany Profile
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Management & Development
Company Location: Reston, VA
Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. develops, operates, and manages properties in the greater Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The company operates through two segments, Asset Management and Real Estate Services. The Asset Management segment provides management services to a range of real estate owners and businesses that include various commercial real estate uses, including apartments, hotels, office buildings, commercial garages, leased lands, retail stores, mixed-use developments, and urban transit-oriented developments. The Real Estate Services segment provides a range of real estate services in the areas of strategic corporate planning, capital markets, brokerage services, and environmental and design-based services in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Its environmental services group offers consulting and engineering services, environmental studies, remediation services and site-specific solutions for projects. The company was formerly known as Comstock Homebuilding Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. in June 2012. Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
First Target: $5.42
Second Target: $5.67
Third Target: $6.03
Fourth Target: $6.48
Stop Loss: $5.13
Multi-year cup and handle on #gold $GLDI'm a fundamental analyst first and foremost so I've been struggling with why gold hasn't been working as inflation accelerates to mid singles y/y percent growth and only looks to be going higher due to labor constraints. I thought $BTC and #crypto took share from gold but I now think most HF investors that were in BTC are out so not sure that is the case anymore. And, crypto is now in down cycle so gold should be able to regain some share. From a technical perspective looks set to break out of this multi-year cup and handle formation, which would be a huge move.
Physical Gold Ready to Break Out! With inflation no longer appearing to be "transitory" as the FED would like everyone to believe, now is a good time to consider diversifying your portfolio with some physical gold. Yes, physical gold! You might ask, why invest in gold? It has hardly performed over the past 10 years. Well that time is now as we are right on the precipice of the FEDs transitory narrative undoubtedly falling apart. Physical gold such as a gold eagle 1 oz coin acts as a physical store of wealth for your money and is considered legal tender in many states. It's a great diversifier like bitcoin and acts as a hedge against inflation. At the current moment, the charts look exceptionally bullish for the long term. We need to see sustained movement above $1,835 to confirm, which would give us the potential of the price of gold to easily break above the most recent high of around $2,000 and end 10 years of sideways performance. At this point we would be in a price exploration phase and the heights at which the price could reach is unlimited unless proven otherwise by a confirmed change in trend.
Gold cannot simply be created digitally or out of thin air and must be extracted from the earth which requires immense amounts of energy, expertise, heavy equipment, cash and most importantly, time, to extract physical ore from the ground to be refined. There is also a limited supply of gold within the earth that can be mined economically/possibly. This is why gold has been the best performing asset in the past 5,000 years as it is the basis of the supply and demand model and has outlived many of the failed currencies of past civilizations. Once demand peaks during inflationary times when people are looking for the exit into safety, price is sure to explode with growth.
When it comes to investing in gold, it is recommended by many wealth advisors to have at a minimum of 5% of your total wealth in physical gold with a max allocation of 20%. While one of the downsides of physical gold is storing the gold there are solutions to safely house your gold, which can be kept at home in a safe or within a vault at a bank. Another play would be to purchase gold miner stocks like Barrick Gold Corporation. With the increased price of gold, these miners profits would explode, resulting in huge price increases for the extremely undervalued gold miner stocks. The added benefit of high dividends is also a huge plus when investing in miners as you can use this to generate an income while still playing the physical gold “play.”
In short, if you are looking for ways to diversify and already have an interest in assets such as bitcoin as a hedge against the impending inflation then definitely consider visiting a local jeweler and coin dealer and speaking with an expert that can guide you in your first gold purchase.
CF Industries Holds the Breakout High and tight: That’s the pattern in fertilizer stock CF Industries.
Notice the sharp rally from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since the middle of September. It planted CF above the $56 level where the stock previously peaked in October 2018 and May-June 2021.
Interestingly, CF tried to test back toward that level on Monday but immediately found buyers under $59. That resulted in a higher low than the initial pullback on October 6:
The stock has also remained above its 8-day exponential moving average (EMA).
This quick dash higher was supported by analysts who like the company’s pricing power. That kind of price action, encouraged by Wall Street, may reflect a new set of investors involved in the name. That would also be consistent with the current tight price action, with few looking to sell yet.
CF may need more time to consolidate. However pullbacks may be shallow, followed by potentially more upside into yearend.
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Maybe inflation is transitory?Money printing in real terms is admittedly at the top of the historical range of this data set but its not beyond what we have seen.
Maybe inflation is transitory? Maybe it's not. It is clear that a vast majority of the additional money printing causes asset inflation otherwise this chart would look a lot different. i.e. if gold didn't have a significant move up then this chart would have broken out to a new ATH a long time ago.
Yes these charts are Raoul Pal inspired so nothing original is going on here but I find the idea of making gold the denominator or unit of account, to be a fascinating lens to view things.
DBB - Inflation be thy nameLot of "China is falling apart news" sell your metals recently such as:
www.kitco.com
IMO that story isn't going to age well at least in the near term... market buying the bad news. Recent new high on DBB. Copper looking bullish again too. Turns out the world still needs a lot of metal.
Based upon that recent high and bull-flag - DBB hitting $22 = very likely.
Inflation looks like it is ready to ROAR! At least for a bit longer.
Not financial advice.
$USB: Monster setupAll timeframes are setting up for a big move in $USB here, daily is kicking off a fresh uptrend after the recent bottom, weekly and monthly are about to trigger a trend as well, and by EOY the yearly will flash a 10 year uptrend signal which aims for somewhere between $220 and over $1600 per share by the year 2030. I think overall, the return vs risk proposition here is tilted significantly in our favor to buy both speculative swing positions, as well as potential long term positions too.
Keep a close eye on this setup, might be extremely rewarding and it is extremely low risk considering the potential upside at hand...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
URA to the Moon (Uranium)Uranium will be entering a breakout over the coming years.
Demand for energy will skyrocket as problems began to surface in current infrastructure.
The technology has advanced by leaps and bounds. Going Nuclear will continue to be the narrative driving Uranium demand and mining companies.
See you in the future of energy.
Expect the price of your cup of coffee to increase. We have both technical and fundamental justifications as to why coffee is the next inflationary trade to jump into.
With supply chain issues and the seasonal changes in Brazil affecting coffee production and shipping, we can expect the value of the black breakfast gold to rise. Latin American coffee farmers are also reported to have gone on strike in the last few months to demand better prices for their produce as they are barely turning a profit.
Technical wise, the symmetrical triangle break shows us the fundamentals are playing out on the charts.