S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Upon completing the Outer Index Dip 5045, per the Daily Chart Analysis for the week of April 12, Spooz witnessed a decline in this week's trading session, leading to the Key Support level of 4950. The current market trends indicate that the index will experience an upward Dead-Cat rebound, targeting our Mean Resistance level of 5057. However, the downside risks cannot be ignored, and the index may continue its decline to reach the strategic Outer Index Dip at 4865, which is expected to act as a catalyst for reigniting its bullish trend.
Inflationhedge
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has completed our Inner Currency Dip of 1.060. However, further selling pressure is reviling a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim Dead-Cat rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.072 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, Bitcoin reached the Key Support 61300 level and rebounded to the inverted resistance level derived from Mean Support 65600. This movement is part of positioning Bitcoin for the upcoming "halving" event, which is expected to happen around April 20. However, a market decline could cause Bitcoin to fall to an Inner Coin Dip 57200 level.
Nasdaq-100 Index. Meet and Greet March Quarter Earnings Season.US stock indices, including the benchmark American economy S&P500 index (SPX) and US BigTech Nasdaq-100 index (NDX), are retreating from their yearly highs, moving to a more aggressive decline last Friday, April 12.
Investors digest the first portion of earnings reports for March quarter 2024 - traditionally starting with financial sector Earnings reports.
New Earnings season has begun! Perfect!
Well... sounds good. Anyway...
JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported first-quarter earnings that beat forecasts, but a large number of persistent inflation pressures are still building and continuing.
JPMorgan CEO James "Jamie" Dimon warned that while the stock market is healthy and most economic indicators look favorable, there are still significant risks that could arise at any time.
"Looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces. First, the global landscape is troubled, horrific wars and violence continue to cause suffering, and geopolitical tensions are rising. Second, there appear to be a large number of persistent inflationary pressures. Pressure that is likely to continue," - Dimon said on the conference call.
On the inflation front, US import prices rose for the third straight month in March, slightly above the consensus forecast of 0.4% month-on-month. Almost all of the rise in import prices was driven by the recent rise in oil prices.
The fight against inflation - which has transformed into a classic chronic illness from a relatively minor cyclical problem driven by a low Covid-19 base - appears to have reached a stalemate, and the first rate cut will not occur until December, Bank of America (BAC) now says.
Despite the fact that at the beginning of 2024, the market was almost 100% confident that at least one rate cut would take place by the June FOMC meeting, and by the December meeting, the number of rate cuts could reach three.
Monetary easing by June is looking more and more like an unattainable dream, tempered by the latest data.
Recent inflation data, while in line with expectations, doesn't give the Federal Reserve much reason to rush.
But if the central bank doesn't cut rates by June, it will likely delay any cuts until March 2025, Bank of America strategists said.
In reality, long-term forecasting of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy curve is not an easy task, given that only forecasts for the next FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for May 1, and for which the market does not factor in a change in interest rates, can be relatively reliable.
Of much greater significance is that the same arguments and theses that are presented in the reports of the largest American banks - the locomotive of the American economy - may find their repetition or imitation in Earnings reports for Q1'2024 of dozens and hundreds of other companies over the next two-three months.
Technically, the main chart of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) featured in the idea is in a long-term positive trend of a weakly rising channel, above its 5-year SMA.
At the same time, taking into account the possibility of escalation of macroeconomic and political risks, one cannot exclude the prospect of its decline to the lower border of the channel - down to the levels of 12,500 - 13,000 points.
Also lets take into account the fact that the entire 10-12 percent Nasdaq-100 increase from Q4'21 highs to nowadays can be easily represented as the transposition of a 200% increase in the shares of only one company - Nvidia (with its near 6% allocation in the index), - which increased in price from $320 to over $960 per share over the same period of time - from Q4'21 by Q1'24.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz continue to experience a severe drop in this week's trading session, hitting our two Mae Sup levels: 5150 and 5120, respectively. The current price action indicates that the market will pursue an upside movement to target our Mean Res 5208 and beyond. On the downside, Spooz may continue on a downward spiral to the Mean Support level of 5070 and Outer Index Dip at 5045, which is expected to act as a launching point to reignite its bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has completed an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. This momentum is expected to generate further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.075 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
This week's trading session Bitcoin completed the forthcoming Inner Coin Rally 72500, and as expected, the coin retraced to our designated Mean Sup 65600. Bitcoin is in the process of rebounding back to the 72500 scene of crime. On the downside, the market potential decline may occur, resulting in Bitcoin falling to Key Sup 61300 and an Inner Coin Dip 57200. The bull stage movement will arise from current price action or Key Sup 61300 and an Inner Coin Dip 57200, respectively.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 index experienced a severe drop below our Mean Sup 5203; however, the market rebounded swiftly and returned to an active crime scene. The current upward trend indicates that it will reach the target of Key Res 5260 and, subsequently, Outer Index Rally 5280, the long-awaited target. On the downside, Spooz may revisit the newly created Mean Support level of 5150, which is expected to act as a launching point to reignite its bullish trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has broken through our Mean Support level of 1.077 and has quickly risen to hover around the Mean Resistance level of 1.084. This momentum is expected to generate further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.074. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, it is essential to note that an intermediate fluctuation at the Mean Resistance level of 1.084 may require action.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's price action, Bitcoin rapidly moved towards a Mean Support level of 66700 and, in the process, established a new Mean Support level of 65600. This new level is being used as a base to ignite the bullish trend further. Currently, the market is experiencing consolidation, with the expectation of moving toward reaching the Key Resistance level of 73200 and beyond. However, a potential decline may occur, resulting in Bitcoin falling to the Mean Support level of 65600.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 index experienced a change in direction during its journey toward a Mean Support level of 5177 and bounced back to retest the Key Resistance level of 5260. The current upward trend indicates that it will reach the target of Outer Index Rally 5280, which has been long-awaited, with a high possibility of continuing the upward trend to the next Outer Index Rally of 5342. On the downside, Spooz may visit the newly created Mean Support level of 5203, which is expected to act as a launching point to reignite its bullish trend.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has achieved a decisive breach of its weak Mean Resistance level 68400, and is now eying the completed Inner Coin Rally 72500 and significant Key Resistance level 73200. The market anticipates that attaining these levels will set in motion a major bull run, with the primary target being the Inner Coin Rally 78200 first. However, it is essential to note that a potential takedown may occur, which could result in a decline to 66700.
Interest Rate Cuts 3 Times This Year May Not Happen - Here's WhyMany interpreted from the latest FOMC meeting that the Fed is going to have three rate cuts this year, but Jerome Powell did not say that.
Let me quote directly from his transcript:
“If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year”
And he added:
“These projections are not a committee decision or plan”
In today’s tutorial we will discover why so many of us got it wrong in what he is trying to tell us.
And who are these participants?
10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has dropped significantly from a Mean Sup of 65900 to a Mean Sup of 61300, where it is currently gyrating. The upcoming retest of the Mean Sup of 68400 will be crucial for continuing the bull run. However, before the bull run takes place, the coin might retest Mean Sup 61300 and, in the process, complete Outer Coin Dip 57200.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 (Spooz) index has continued to move on to new highs in this week's trading session. The current squeeze movement is posed to target Mean Sup 5177 with the possibility of extending the squeeze to the next Mean Sup 5120. On the upside, the Spooz is aiming for a newly created Key Res level of 5260, which is anticipated to serve as a pushing point to Outer Index Rally 5280.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 22, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As presented in the Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of March 15, the Eurodollar is moving to Mean Sup 1.080. The current projection shows Squeeze Currency Dip 1.078 as the primary target. This could lead to further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.070 and the ultimate outcome of an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has reached our target, the Inner Coin Rally 72500. It has since dropped significantly and is now hovering around the newly established Mean Sup of 65900. The upcoming retest of the Mean Sup of 65900 will serve as a crucial point for continuing the ongoing bull run, which aims to achieve two more targets: the Inner Coin Rally 78200 and the Outer Coin Rally 81400.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Based on the chart analysis for March 8, it has been observed that the S&P 500 (Spooz) index has initiated a renewed downward trend from the completed Outer Index Rally 5170. The Spooz targets a newly created Mean Support level of 5096, which is anticipated to serve as a rebound point, enabling the index to retest the completed Outer Index Rally 5170. The subsequent important target for the index is the Outer Index Rally 5280. However, it is essential to note that there exists a possibility of the index experiencing a dip and resting at the Mean Support level of 5060.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading, the Eurodollar had difficulty surpassing our Mean Resistance level of 1.097. As a result, it continued to move towards our Mean Support level of 1.087, which could lead to further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.080. Nevertheless, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip of 1.100 before potentially resuming a bearish trend.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
According to the chart analysis for March 1, the S&P 500 (Spooz) index continued to perform exceptionally well, achieving our expectations again. The index bounced off the solid Mean Support level of 5060 on March 5 and reached our designated target of the Outer Index Rally at 5170. This was a significant achievement, as it triggered designated a pivotal squeeze aimed back to the Mean Support level of 5060. The index has the potential to visit the well-established Mean Support level of 4950, which has proven to be a very steady level in the past.
It is worth noting that once the pivotal pullback level is achieved, the index will continue its journey toward the outer index rally at 5280. This indicates that the index is on a steady upward trajectory and is expected to perform well in the near future, and traders and investors can expect positive investment returns.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's trading, the Eurodollar saw a remarkable surge, breaking through our Mean Resistance levels of 1.085 and 1.090. The currency marched forward with significant momentum, leaving behind the previous trading range. However, based on the recent price trend and market analysis, we anticipate the Eurodollar will retrace its steps and move lower toward our projected Mean Support level of 1.087. This could trigger further selling pressure, leading to a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.080. Despite this, there is a possibility of the Eurodollar reaching the Inner Currency Dip of 1.100 before potentially resuming a bearish trend.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 8, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin's price has risen this week, surpassing Major Key Resistance 67530 and the all-time high of 69000. Its ongoing targets are the Inner Coin Rally 72500, the Next Inner Coin Rally 78200, and the Outer Coin Rally 81400. A slight dip to the Mean Sup at the 63800 price is expected before the next rally. Despite the increasing acceptance and rise in investor interest, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin remains subject to volatility and market fluctuations. As such, it is imperative to maintain rigorous vigilance over its price movements and market trends to make informed investment decisions.