Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6.
NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast.
The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report.
The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months.
Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
Inflationhedge
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As indicated on the chart analysis for February 16th, the S&P 500 (Spooz) index shined as expected and reached a new high, surpassing all resistance and index rallies, including Key Resistance at 5029, Outer Index Rally at 5035, and 5072. However, its current price action is in retreat, and it is entering a pivotal squeeze mode - a period of consolidation where the index is expected to remain within a narrow range or drop significantly lower to take a breather - Time will tell.
The main down price target for the index is Mean Support at 5060, with a possibility of extending to Mean Support at 4950. Once one or both of these levels are accomplished, the index is expected to rebound strongly and continue its journey toward the Outer Index Rally at 5170.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout this week's trading, Bitcoin has been showing a lot of gyration, with its price moving back and forth between two key levels: our Mean Resistance level of 52500/completed Coin Rally level of 53000, and newly created support at 50600 during this period indicating that the price has found some stability.
However, despite these developments, the price of Bitcoin may experience a further decline and test our Mean Support level of 49700. If this happens, it could be an opportunity for traders to buy at a lower price before the coin takes off to retest Mean Res 52500, completed Coin Rally 53000, and galop to new highs.
XAUUSD FOMC UP then Downtrend❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️
INFORMATION
Gold (XAU/USD) rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday (+0.50% to $2,027), firmly establishing itself above the $2,025 mark, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a subdued U.S. dollar, with risk-averse sentiment on Wall Street likely reinforcing the metal’s advance.
💲BUY GOLD 💲
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❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis
Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS
❤️NOTE
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❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital
⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On
⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage
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⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital
⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
According to the chart analysis on Feb 9, the S&P 500 (Spooz) index has completed our Outer Index Rally of 5035. It is now retreating and entering a pivotal squeeze mode. The main price target is Mean Sup 4945, possibly extending to Mean Sup 4847. After reaching these levels, the index is expected to rebound strongly and retest Key Res 5029, completing the Outer Index Rally 5035 again.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar experienced a decline during this week's trading session. It crossed our Mean Support level of 1.074 and Inner Currency level of 0.075 before quickly bouncing back to the Mean Resistance level of 1.079. Currently, the currency is in a primary downward trend and is expected to continue until it reaches the Inner Currency Dip of 1.065 via Mean Sup 1.071. However, an intermediate price trading at Mean Res 1.079 may cause a potential extension to 1.084.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 index has reached and surpassed our Inner Index Rally 4980, and we expect it to continue to rise in the upcoming week. Our projection is that it will fill the five-handle gap to reach an Outer Index Rally 5035 and then continue to Inner Index Rally 5072. However, we anticipate potential pullbacks in the market at this level.
Notwithstanding, if there is a down move or gap-down before reaching the 5035 price, the Mean Sup 4985 will be the primary target. It is essential to monitor the price action carefully in the first three days of the upcoming week's session to make informed trading entry decisions.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar traded lower in this week's trading session by completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 and settling in a tight range, hovering above our Mean Sup 1.074 and under Mean Res 1.079. The Eurodollar is in a primary downward trend, which will continue until the support level marked at Mean Support of 1.074 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 is broken. Once these levels are eliminated, the currency will continue to decline toward the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, an intermediate upward movement is possible, in which case the currency might retest the Mean Support level of 1.084.
Market is Sensitive to what Jerome Powell is SayingAt the latest FOMC meeting on January 31st, Jerome Powell stated, 'The Fed is not ready to start cutting,' which immediately caused the yield to pivot higher. During an recent interview on Sunday, February 4th, he reiterated that the US central bank is not yet prepared to cut interest rates, resulting in another increase in the yield.
Today, we will discuss the direction of the yield or interest rates in the coming months, as well as why the Fed is carefully considering its decision to cut rates this time.
My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent trading session, the Spooz (S&P 500) experienced a dip toward the Mean Support level of 4845 for an excellent Buy signal placement. The prices ricocheted strongly toward the Inner Index Rally level of 4980, reaching a high of 4975. Looking ahead to the upcoming week, we anticipate that the price will fill in the five-handle gap from the previous week's price action, which could lead to a significant pullback. That said, if the price continues to move slowly, steadily, or in a tight range, it may indicate a minor pullback before continuing on an upward trajectory toward the Outer Index Rally level of 5935. However, the violent or gap-down price movement will signal that Mean Sup 4845 is again a legitimate target. Overall, careful monitoring of the price action on the first two days of the upcoming week's session is crucial for making informed trading entry decisions.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Spooz has completed the Inner Index Rally at 4882 and is continuing its upward movement toward a higher target; the Outer Index Rally marked at 4980. However, once we reach the designated target, there is a possibility of a squeeze that could cause prices to drop to the Mean Support level of 4845. In the meantime, the index may retest the Mean Support level of 4845 before continuing its upward trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar gyrated between our Mean Res 1.090 and Mean Sup 1.084 throughout this week's trading. The continuous primary downward designation is the established support level marked at 1.076 and the Inner Currency Dip level of 1.075 with a strong possibility of a dead-cat rebound to reversed (Resistance) Mean Sup 1.084. On the upside, the currency might retest a Mean Sup 1.090 before continuing its downward trend.
🔝 Berkshire Hathaway. Grandpa Warren Breaks The TopLegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, ten months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations.
As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities.
The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002 .
It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India.
But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!?
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value.
“They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - 3 years later Buffett said to CNBC, in March 2023.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion.
But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo last spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals.
In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which can help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms.
In nowadays Japan Stock Index TSE:TOPIX ended 2023 on a positive note, adding more than 25 percent at the end of the year, that is, the maximum growth over the last 10 calendar years.
Early in 2024 TSE:TOPIX continues its growth path, as technology companies stocks are rallying.
In 2024 TSE:TOPIX hit the 2,500 yen mark - point that not been seen for more than 30 years - since the first half of 1990, while another one Japan stock index Nikkei225 INDEX:NKY hit its 36'000 Milestone - the level that was not seen also since early 1990s.
The main technical graph says Berkshire Hathaway Class B NYSE:BRK.B stocks are on the runway to break its key resistance - 6-month and all time highs, to further upside price action delver.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Spooz's robust movement from our Mean Sup 4745 toward our designated target, Inner Index Rally 4882, is on its way, leaving no fingerprints at the crime scene at the completed Outer Index Rally 4807. The advancement toward a higher target Outer Index Rally 5035 is now in its making. However, once we reach the designated target of Inner Index Rally 4882, we may face a squeeze that could cause prices to drop down to the Mean Support level of 4798 and possibly even the Mean Support level of 4725.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Spooz's extended movement toward our designated target, Mean Res 4783 and Key Res 4800, is noteworthy. However, the completed Outer Index rally poses a significant barrier to advancement towards higher targets: Inner Index Rally 4882 and the next Outer Index Rally 5035. The current level of tight trading range supports this theory. Despite this, current market conditions suggest we may experience a squeeze that could drive the prices down to the Mean Support level at 4745 and possibly even the Inner Index Dip at 4595.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz extended down movement from our designated target Key Res 4800 and Outer Index Rally 4807 and now rests comfortably at our Mean Support level of 4700. The current market conditions suggest we experience a squeeze that could take us down to the Mean Support level at 4644 and possibly even the Inner Index Dip at 4595. However, the current level of support may provide a rebound to the newly created Mean Resistance level at 4740 before continuing its downward movement.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 29, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz has slowly but surely approached our designated target Key Res 4800 and Outer Index Rally 4807 throughout this short week's trading session. Some market squeeze from the current position might take us to Mean Sup 4700. This level of support is considered a strong support level for the index and can allow traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
Fed's Hope in 2024 - Their Projection & PlanDuring the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026.
Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan.
So what is the difference between a projection and a plan? And how will the market performance in 2024?
Dow Jones Futures & Options
E-mini Dow Jones
Ticker: YM
1.00 index point = $5.00
Micro E-mini Dow Jones
Ticker: MYM
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 index exhibited continued strength by rising above our Completed Inner Index Rally 4713 with the violent retreat on Wednesday to this strategic price level. The main target is our central Key Res 4800 and Outer Index Rally 4807, completed on June 4th, 2022. However, some concerns about a market squeeze from the newly created Mean Res 4769 might cause a pullback to Mean Sup 4700. This level of support is considered a strong support level for the index and can allow traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited remarkable strength, with consistent price momentum throughout. The index managed to surpass our Key Resistance level of 4639 and Inner Index Rally level of 4647, finally resting at the completion of Inner Index Rally level of 4713.
Looking ahead, the following two targets for an upward trend are the completed Outer Index Rally level of 4807 and the Key Resistance of 4800. Both price levels were created on June 4th, 2022.
However, there are some concerns about a market squeeze from the current completed Inner Index Rally 4713 that might cause a transient pullback. In such a scenario, the index could move downward and reset itself to the Mean Support level of 4644. This level is considered a strong support level for the index and can provide an opportunity for traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar currency pair has shown a strong rebound in the recent trading session, climbing to reach our previously identified Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099. However, this was followed by a sharp reversal, with the price dropping rapidly. The current price action indicates that the Eurodollar is likely to continue on a downward trend, with the designated target levels being Mean Sup 1.075 and Inner Currency Dip of 1.068.
Overall, it's crucial to stay vigilant and informed about the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market to make the most of the opportunities it presents.
Rate Cut 1930 - Pattern Recognition: 30s vs Today In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities.
Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us?
As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option?
My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities.
Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 5YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 30-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 30Y
0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout the course of this week's trading session, the index remained relatively stable using our strong Mean Sup 4546 as a strategic price platform, notwithstanding moderate gains leading toward the Key Resistance of 4639 and Inner Index Rally of 4647. Moreover, the Inner Index Rally 4647 indicates a strong bullish trend for traders and investors to ponder. Once the market reaches the target price, the resulting squeeze could be substantial and chaotic. As a result, traders and investors should be cautious and attentive during this price action period.