Infosys Struggling to hold on to support level - Short setupInfosys seems to be struggling to hold on to support level of 915-905 on weekly charts.
The chart structure looks really weak and a break below 900 would drag it to levels of 840 levels which should potentially act as the next support level (July - Aug 2014 level).
Trading strategy :
Short @ current level of 916
Keep stop @ 954
Target price : 840
Reward to risk - 2:1
Disclosure : The view expressed above is my own analysis on the stock. You are responsible for your own investment / trading decisions.
Infosys
Infosys - Didn't We Tell You Moment - Part 2 ;)Finally Infosys saga has turned the way we anticipated about a year ago ( check out the linked posts ). Now since you can not fool all the investors all the time, Rs. 13,000 crore buyback plan has been received by the investor the way it should have been! Why? Because the right time for buyback was many years back when clients of the major IT firms were so naive to pay $50/hr for $5 work. Now the fact is out and Indian IT firms exponential growth is about to top out.
Conflict between the celebrity founder Mr. Narayana Murthy and outsider CEO Mr. Vishal Sikka is sideshow compared to the main reasons going to dog the stock price in near future. One of the things - Severance pay packages of few crore they were fighting for is peanuts compared to Rs. 13,000 crore being totally wasted buying the Infosys stock back at Rs. 1150 ! Investor would have been better off with one time more dividend instead in our opinion. But well, we don't care. As a trader we are just looking for next profitable trade out of the situation :) Our though process in the stock has helped us make good fortune out of last few years price action ( which you can check out in those old posts ) and now it is time to move forward.
Nope, we are not going to short the stock! Rather looking again for good buy-side trade opportunities. A next band lower, between 600 and 800 is going to proved many such opportunities and we are just waiting for the stock to come to our preferred levels.
NIFTY - Test Of 8200 / 8000 Inevitable - 11/4/2016Happy New Year to all. New year has arrived with new opportunities. It is always good to start a new year with profitable note. Our short NIFTY and other selected stocks positions ( via puts of courses ) is well in green and now it looks like the test of solid support levels near 8200 / 8000 is inevitable in coming sessions.
Many of the trades we have outlined here have performed the way sound technical analysis defines the chart geometry. Trading theme is, soggy IT sector, topped out auto and pharma sector, so-so oil sector and healthy but lack of momentum in FMCG sector. Here are some of the trades you can review based on such theme, ( Pls Check the Links )
Dr Reddy
Cipla
Glaxo
Lupin
Infosys
TCS
Wipro
ONGC
Dabur
Grasim
We have warned about sucker rallies in equities and have advised to be patient with a game plan. Armature investors ask wrong questions about what's going to happen and they tend to waste energy in trying to find when a particular security is going to reach 'where they believe it is heading towards'. Nobody can predict the exact timing and where the things are going to be. Only thing which matters is that what you are going to do when the stock reaches to the point you are interested in ! e.g. people ask, when XYZ stock will reach 100? Instead they should be thinking about what they will do when it reaches 100 or 50 or whatever level is defined as good support or resistance.
Let's enjoy the relaxed last weekend of Diwali holidays and get ready for the next week to trade Forex, Commodities and Equities. We are ready with a game plan for the new year, are you?!
Infosys ShortIT is anyways looking weak and it will lead the correction for Indian market, whenever it starts. I expect Infosys to lead the pack, it should find support , right at 938, which is also 200WMA.
INR is looking strong and it should provide the impetus for the fall.
Pairing this short with a long in LUPIN, will be a good strategy in my mind.
SHORT INFOSYSResults were bad and guidance is dismal.
Technically, Infosys is all set to test 200 WMA and may find support around 945 levels. There is good 10-12% immediate downside visible from here.
Fundamentally, Infosys is trading at 15-16 1 yr forward-looking multiple. Given guidance of 10-11%, it is surely going to get re-rated along with the whole of IT sector.
Infosys - Didn't We Tell You Moment ;) - 7/15/2016When trust is lost, everything is lost. Fortunately, at least for stocks, that trust can be reestablished with good results and good execution. But now, the moment has come which we just a month ago warned about and cashed good part of the position in Infosys and started selling covered calls. We won't repeat the arguments here about why we did it from the previous post but rather want to share the next trade idea instead.
Now the game plan should be to let the disappointed investors liquidate. Let the stock stabilize and get back in again. Simple ! Let it get back around 900 and start picking the stock from there again. Of course it depends upon market condition that how much one should invest at that level but as a trader, these good support levels shown in the chart will at least give us good trading range.
On broad perspective, if Indian IT companies won't reinvent themselves then eventually they will top out. Earlier they have milked international clients by charging ridiculous amounts for routine work but now clients have become smart. If India has cheap labor and that's the only thing these IT giants like to relay upon then their heady days are numbered. Because big IT spender companies are already putting their subsidiaries on Indian shore to take advantage of that. Many US firms have established their offices in India and getting work done cheaply. So ho-hum outsourced work is not going to give a constant earning boost but rather steady income. And when a company don't have any exceptional product, anybody can replace it by just quoting less price! The point is that big IT companies like TCS and Infosys are good, but they last, until they last ! They won't keep on growing with the same pace and investors should keep that in mind.