INFY
Infosys - Didn't We Tell You Moment - Part 2 ;)Finally Infosys saga has turned the way we anticipated about a year ago ( check out the linked posts ). Now since you can not fool all the investors all the time, Rs. 13,000 crore buyback plan has been received by the investor the way it should have been! Why? Because the right time for buyback was many years back when clients of the major IT firms were so naive to pay $50/hr for $5 work. Now the fact is out and Indian IT firms exponential growth is about to top out.
Conflict between the celebrity founder Mr. Narayana Murthy and outsider CEO Mr. Vishal Sikka is sideshow compared to the main reasons going to dog the stock price in near future. One of the things - Severance pay packages of few crore they were fighting for is peanuts compared to Rs. 13,000 crore being totally wasted buying the Infosys stock back at Rs. 1150 ! Investor would have been better off with one time more dividend instead in our opinion. But well, we don't care. As a trader we are just looking for next profitable trade out of the situation :) Our though process in the stock has helped us make good fortune out of last few years price action ( which you can check out in those old posts ) and now it is time to move forward.
Nope, we are not going to short the stock! Rather looking again for good buy-side trade opportunities. A next band lower, between 600 and 800 is going to proved many such opportunities and we are just waiting for the stock to come to our preferred levels.
Long for ATH above 13000Nifty IT is following the textbook EW pattern. We are at the beginning of a fresh impulse of the last cycle wave 5. This wave should take us to all time highs.
On smaller time frame we have already finished wave 1 of 5; obviously the next impulse (w3) would be much sharper.
Index is susceptible to political news from US, so adhere to proper RM.
INFY - 5th Wave Completion (Correction ahead in Tech.)As per my elliott wave analysis, Wave 5 is forming ending diagonal, which is at urge of breaking down. We may see a correction from here on that can go on for some few years.
It is wise to take out your investments from this one and invest in something else that can provide you returns in few years. Day Traders/ Swing traders have great opportunity to short this one on every rise.
Trading Infosys - 6/15/2016It seems like much of the good news has been priced into the Infosys stock. Appointment of Mr. Vishal Sikka as CEO brought much needed fresh air into the culture and stock responded with enthusiasm. But as usual, after the initial exuberance wanes, investor demands not just good future projections but implementation and execution too. Nothing against the stock or the company or Mr. Sikka's leadership but it is the nature of publically traded company's investors to constantly seek for the next bone to chew for. If they don't get it, they will throw tantrums and become impatient.
So while the new leadership is executing those rosy ideas, stock may not move much in upward direction until it is backed by solid numbers.
We got into Infosys around July last year and trading with upward bias with holding core long position since then. But now it seems like a good time to cash in some and start writing upside calls on bounces ( covered call strategy ) to get that premium. Or buying puts during the bounce higher makes sense. Never short a good stock, buy put instead. And never write naked call options, no matter how bad the stock or the situation is.