Trading Plans for FRI. 09/08 - Back to the Basics - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/08
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 09/07: "The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls". This bias is still applicable for today.
Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4483, 4472, 4459, 4455, 4444, or 4436 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4480, 4468, 4448, 4441, or 4434 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4457 or 4453, and short exits on a break above 4450. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
Initialclaims
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/29/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023
- PR High: 10798.00
- PR Low: 10782.25
- NZ Spread: 35.25
Evening Stats (As of 12:35 AM)
- Weekend Gap: +0.33% (filled)
- 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237)
- Session Open ATR: 283.51
- Volume: 17K
- Open Int: 246K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From ATH: -35.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 12391
- Mid: 11820
- Short: 10678
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
SPX at the crossroad- Macro overview and economic indicatorsPlease click like and follow me if you like my post. Much appreciated!
SPX has been going on a W ride for a while and is currently only down around 15 percent from its mid Feb high, putting it in the midpoint of the correction and recession phase. If this trend continues on, it is safe to expect that SPX will more likely to challenge its mid Feb high than retest its March 23 low.
However, the current resistance lvl seems to have stalled its momentum somewhat as the weekly candle indicates an indecisive market sentiment.
It is worth to see if there is an accelerating net inflow into bond and equity fund and net outflow from liquid assets such as money market fund & saving deposits and total deposits at US commercial banks in the upcoming weeks. In order to sustain the rally, more investors need to to put their money back into the equity market.
Some encouraging news and signs are already happening-
*Stocks have vastly outperformed bonds by 11.92 percentage points during the last 20 trading days
*Call options far outnumbered put options
*VIX is steadily declining and briefly went below 40 few days ago.
*Remdesivir- Early result of severe clinical trial is encouraging. Few caveats- Still wait for the result of full clinical trial and more data from randomized controlled trial is needed. Also, the severe trial was conducted without the placebo group, meaning researchers don't not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug.
*Abbott recently announced new coronavirus antibody test that could do up to 20 million screenings in June. This antibody testing allows us to know if someone has been previously infected, if recovered from the infection provides the immunity and how long antibodies stay in the body.
*Exponential growth has slowed down a little bit the past few days, but the fatality rate is still climbing. Hospitalized # seems to have flattened the past few days even though the positive testing rate has gone up to nearly 20%. Overall, the growth rate has gone down to the average of single digit 7 % compared to the double digit growth rate few weeks ago. It is safe to assume that US is potentially transitioning from the stage of slowed down exponential growth to the stage of flattened curve.
On the other hands, all economic indicators and warning signs point to the rather bleak outlook-
*Vast majority of stocks is still below SMA200 and SMA50
*The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds that of hitting 52-week highs
*Retail sales tanked 8.7% in March, the largest decline since the government started tracking retail sales in 1992
*March CPI fell 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since Jan.2015
*Industrial production dropped 5.4% in March, largest drop since 1946
*The March PMI registered 49.1 percent, an 1 percentage drop from the February. The New Orders Index suffered a drastic decline of 7.6 percentage due to the export contraction, suggesting a weakening demand from customers.
*Initial claim is down from its peak while continuous claim continues to surge
*unemployment rate is projected to be as high as 20%
*Crude Oil declined 67.50% since the beginning of 2020
*The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012
*Building permits in the United States fell 6.8 percent, the sharpest drop since July 2015
*Housing starts in the US plunged 22.3%, the biggest decline in housing starts since 1984
*Small business rescue loan program already hit the $349 billion limit
*Massive credit downgrade as corporate earning approaches and many corporate bonds fall to distress lvl
*Market-cap to GDP is still in the overvalued zone
In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, central bank launched its latest program that allow foreign central banks to convert their Treasury securities into dollars in order to alleviate the USD shortage problem. This was a response to the ever-increasing liquidity crunch that is rarely seen in traditionally the most liquid market in the world. In recent days, treasury yields have not fallen like they usually do in the past during the event of massive sell-offs in equities. Other worrisome signs are the elimination of reserve requirement and the inclusion of previously excluded category of less-than-investment grade corporate bond to the Fed asset purchases. The result of these drastic measures is sure to ballon the Fed balance sheet, federal deficit and debt-GDP ratio in the near future, further compounding the U.S Debt dilemma.
Lastly, the potential danger of second wave infection in China cannot be overstated. The fragility of the global supply chain is already being exposed during the pandemic and the problem will be further exacerbated if the world's second largest economy fails to prevent the re-emergence of virus.
Overall, I am cautiously optimistic. There are many potential events and developments to pay attention to such as the serious supply chain bottleneck and essential worker shortage that could trigger the massive sell-off. Also, I am waiting to see how the market will react to the upcoming quarterly GDP, unemployment # and corporate earning.
Stay safe out there my friends!
Please do your own due diligence. Not the investment advice, just my personal take on the current situation.
GFC to the Corona Virus: An Overview of Economic StimulusI've stuck with looking at M1 as a general proxy for economic stimulus more broadly for the sake of simplicity as this an overview.
The primary implicit question here is whether or not more economic stimulus will be effective or not and to what extent under the present circumstances.
The need for liquidity in the markets has certainly been evident recently, as is a response to the corona virus and its economic impact.
Those things notwithstanding however, my own conclusions have been that with the dual deflationary effects of an aging population in the developed world, and the role of technology in reducing costs, has much to do with the failure of central banks to reach or sustain target rates of CPI or wage growth in most places globally.
I believe the US has been relatively successful (more so than most) due in no small measure to the disproportionate success of its global tech giants (part of the aforementioned cost ructions trend).
If we assume more economic stimulus will work to a degree, there is evidence of diminishing returns, are we getting close to a depression-type scenario or some other breaking point (like currency devaluation or inequality leading to political turmoil for example), or can it all be managed somehow by central banks and governments?
NIO- Long-term bargain price is within the grasp. Don't miss it!Please click like and follow me if enjoy my posts! :)
Due to the whole market meltdown, NIO has retraced back to Fib 0.786 lvl early this week. However, it has since then rebounded strongly and is currently fighting the resistance lvl.
Barring the continuing worsened market condition, I believe NIO's distribution cycle is nearly over. The current bargain price is hard to pass up despite the unfavorable external environment. The prudent approach would be to determine the total amount you want to put in, then use the pyramid method to scale in slowly as the price moves down lower.
I would grab my cheap shares of NIO if the price falls inside the buy zone and set the tight stop loss if the price falls below the buy zone.
*Dow, Nasdaq100, S&P500 and S&P400 are all still below SMA 200. SPX 50SMA/200SMA crossover seems imminent.
*Futures market seems indecisive. Dow and S&P500 are up while Nasdaq is down.
*GDP final and initial claim filing figures will come out tomorrow. Both reports may have the negative impact on the stock market tomorrow.
*Manufacturing related economic indictors may have the impact on NIO so it is worth to pay attention to them as they come out.
*COVID-19 growth factor slows down for the first time since Mar.11. Yesterday's growth factor was 0.86 (Below one means the exponential growth slows down)
DYOR! Not an investment advice.
Macro Deep Dive - SPX, Initial Claims, Yield Curve and Fed FundsCharts:
- Top left = SPX
- Bottom left = Initial jobless claims (unemployment metric)
- Top right = US 10 year and US 2 year spread (Yield curve inversion metric)
- Bottom right = Fed funds rate (short-term interest rates)
It is no secret that US equities are grossly overvalued, from Warren Buffet to Stanley Druckenmiller to Ray Dalio, the smart money has made their case for why US stocks simply cannot justify their valuations indefinitely.
Yet Stocks continue higher, largely due to massive CB liquidity, spurred on from fears of a global slowdown and the ensuing economic impact this would have on such indebted nations and consumer, this coupled with the supply chain shock that the Corona-Virus is undoubtedly having on global trade is a recipe for disaster.
So what are the macro/ recession indicators saying?
They are flashing red.
The Initial claims are at record lows, which sounds fantastic, until you realize that most major recessions and even depressions are accompanied with low, not high, unemployment. Recessions strike when everyone is complacent, when they are fat and happy and when they have their blinders on.
I will be watching the initial claims and will look for the the claims to spike and reverse trend, as this is a much stronger indicator of structural weakness within the economy.
Moving over the the US10y/ US02y spread, it is well known that the yield curve briefly inverted in 2019, however, the initial inversion is not the point to sell, this is due to the yield curve inversion being a leading indicator of recession. Historically, from the point of first inversion to the inevitable decline in equities, is roughly 12 months to 18 months.
We are 7 months into the initial inversion and the yield curve looks like it is going to invert yet again.
Finally we have the Fed funds rate, the targeted overnight lending rate for the Federal Reserve.
The trend is clearly down, down, down with rates this has been rocket fuel for bonds which are now traded akin to equities for capital appreciation, rather than the interest bearing assets they were designed as.
Furthermore, and perhaps most interestingly, it is not the point where rates are raised that signal trouble for stocks, but rather once the Fed pivots and reverses course and begins easing and lowering rates, THIS, not the rate hikes is the signal to watch for.
It comes as no surprise then, that interest rate cuts have not only begun, but are in full swing, with further rate cuts this year, already being priced in.
The macro outlook looks bleak, this bubble CANNOT last forever, however i firmly believe that the Banksters will not let this bubble burst without a fight, a global slowdown, coupled with global equity markets crashing would cause widespread panic and in some places, riots.
So keep an eye out for the helicopter drop of money coupled with bail ins, bail outs and of course, more QE.
-TradingEdge