Innercircletrader
Bearish on GBPUSD On the Monthly Time frame GBPUSD is giving us signs that it wants to drop
So as pro traders we wait for other confirmations before hand
Awaiting manipulationThe overall overview looks bullish, awaiting accumulation of sellers and manipulating them with the fake holding highs having them see it as resistance. then driving up to the $
When will altcoin season start?
Of course, nobody knows exactly when altcoin season will start, but we can make a prediction by what we see on the charts.
I think we are getting closer and closer to an altcoin season.
We have an ICT unicorn model, a breaker that overlaps with an FVG. We hit the midpoint of the FVG and the 50% level of the range.
I don't trade with indicators and chart patterns, but they do seem to work on BTC.D
— The RSI is overbought and showing signs of weakness.
— The Stochastic RSI is also overbought.
— We are at the end of a bearish pattern, I am not sure what it's called because I don't trade them. But I am able to recognize them.
Bitcoin has been consolidating between 74k-53k for a few months. I think this is bullish because ''The bigger the base, the harder the rally''
Fundamentals:
The Ethereum ETF got accepted = Bullish for altcoins
USA Elections (with a Pro crypto president) = Bullish for Bitcoin and Altcoins
High probability of rate cuts= Bullish for Bitcoin and Altcoins
Big institutions like BlackRock buying the dip=Bullish for Crypto
Germany almost done selling all their bitcoin=Bullish for Crypto
Thank you for reading this,
don't forget to follow me!
ICT Breaker & Mitigation Blocks EXPLAINEDToday, we’re diving into two powerful concepts from ICT’s toolkit that can give you an edge in your trading: Breaker Blocks and Mitigation Blocks. There are one of my favourite PD Arrays to trade, especially the Breaker Block. I’m going to explain how I interpret them and how I incorporate them into my trading. Stay tuned all the way to the end because I’m going to drop some gold nuggets along the way"
Ok, so first of all let’s go through what both these PD Arrays look like and what differentiates them, because they are relatively similar and how they are used is practically the same.
On the left we have a Breaker Block and on the right a Mitigation Block. They both are reversal profiles on the timeframe you are seeing them on, and they both break market structure as you can see here. The actual zone to take trade from, or even an entry from, in the instance of this bearish example is the nearest down candle or series of down candles after price makes a lower low. When price pulls back to this area, one could plan or take a trade.
The defining difference is that a Breaker raids liquidity on its respective timeframes by making a higher high or lower low before reversing, whilst a Mitigation Block does not do that. For this reason, a Breaker is always a higher probability PD Array to trade off from. As you should know by now if you are already learning about PD Arrays such as these is that the market moves from one area to liquidity to another. If you don’t even know what liquidity is, stop this video and educate yourself about that first or you will just be doing yourself a disservice.
Alright, so let’s go see some real examples on the chart. Later on I’ll give you a simple mechanical way to trade them, as well as a the discretionary approach which I use. And of course, some tips on how to increase the probability of your setups.
XAUUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis trade is based on Gold's price trading into a Daily SIBI Unicorn setup. Whilst it isn't premium of the range, there was a CHoCH to the downside on the 4h timeframe, disrespecting a 4h BISI. I am looking to get into a short when price returns to this BISI to be used as an IFVG.
Target will be at the swing low, but leaving a runner would be ideal in an actual trade to target at least 2278, should the bias be correct in the first place.
Stoploss near the 4h swing high for the current trade, but should be trailed to secure profits should the current objective be hit.
#NFA
- R2F
XAGUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello all,
I have a long trade possibility forming on XAGUSD.
Basically, my draw on price is the Relative Equal Highs residing above. My POI for taking a trade is where the BISI 2D is. Since we have a SIBI 2D, we should see lower prices to this POI. If price does not reach my POI before trading higher, I would like to see a clean 2D close above the SIBI 2D. Preferably I see price start to halt and create a consolidation at my POI. What I DON'T want to see if price blast right through it and have a 2D candle close below the BISI.
Silver is lagging behind Gold, so I am using that to back up my bias. Based on my proprietary analysis, price SHOULD go to the current target, if not at my POI, then still soon. Of course, we make allowance for wicks, and I will still hold my POI valid should any 2D candle not close below the BISD 2D and no other SIBI 2D be created, at least without an instant rejection through it in the next 2D candle.
Overall, simple and clean by the looks of it. We can always go to the lower timeframes to refine the narrative and frame some trades.
Have a good weekend!
- R2F
EURUSD - A Top-down Analysis (BEARISH BIAS)I'm going to start from the yearly timeframe and work my way down to the monthly, weekly, and lastly the daily timeframe.
Here on the yearly timeframe we have price coming into a yearly SIBI a couple of times before displacing down into a yearly Sibi. After which, we have a close above equilibrium, and the subsequent year came up into a yearly Breaker (Body) before what looks now like a move lower to take out at the very least the previous year's low.
12-MONTH
On the 6-month timeframe we see a nested Sibi support my bearish bias/narrative. At this point I do not see any discount PD Arrays, but I will be mindful of consequent encroachment of large wick of the swing low's candle.
6-MONTH
On a closer review of the 1-month timeframe, we see a monthly BISI seemingly about to close below it. If that is the case, I would like to see a return into that to be treated as an iFVG. My current draw on liquidity is the relative equal lows (Body).
1-MONTH
On the weekly timeframe we have an even clearer picture. The recent displacement is more prominent, and we can see that a weekly SIBI was created into the monthly potential iFVG (BPR). High up at my second POI is a weekly Bearish Orderblock that may still be a viable possibility for price to reach towards. Inside of that is a daily Unicorn model, which can be seen on the current daily chart. Much of my narrative is based on red folder news coinciding with how I am anticipating the weekly candles to close, mostly anticipating it closing below the SIBIs/iFVGs. The closer price gets to one of the major red folder news events such as CPI/PPI/FOMC, the more extreme of a displacement I am expecting. It is also key that I see some sort of manipulation to take place to shake out the retail crowd.
1-WEEK
So, let's see what unfolds in the coming weeks.
Trade safe!
- R2F
Trade Like a Sniper - Episode 6 - XPDUSD - (15th May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing XPDUSD, starting from the Monthly chart.
- R2F
R2F Weekly Analysis - 13th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss, the TLDR is that I am still bullish Dollar and waiting for the manipulation and reversal back to the upside, potentially this week with CPI/PPI/FOMC red folder news occurring. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around this.
I did not go to the sub 4H timeframe in this video, but how I do my analysis on the higher timeframes is the same as how I would look for entries on the lower timeframes. The only difference is that I would consider the ICT Killzones and weekday tendencies along my usual techniques.
Hit me up if you want to learn more or are struggling to find your footing and need help.
- R2F
GBPUSD - Short Trade Idea, Analysis, and ICT EducationHi friends,
I hope everyone is doing well.
In this video I share my analysis and bias with GBPUSD, I show you how I come up with this analysis, and I advocate additional confluences in your analysis as well as demonstrate what I mean. But please note, I am using ICT Concepts. If you aren't familiar, then it wouldn't make sense to you. However, you will probably have your mind blown anyway. No other concepts allow you to predict price action with accuracy before patterns form.
As you know, I've been expecting a stronger USD and Weaker XXXUSD pairs. We have quite a few confluences going on which give me faith in this bias and narrative. You'll have to listen to me ramble in order to find out the sauces that I use for my bearish dish. Apologies to the lazy folks ;)
I implore you to go into your own charts and study the same thing. If not, you'll be cheating yourselves.
- R2F
"The Bodies Tell The Story.. The Wicks Do The Damage" - ICTIn this video I'm going to go through one of ICT's most famous sayings, which is "The bodies tell the story, and the wicks do the damage". If haven't taken the time to understand what he means, then you are seriously putting yourself at a disadvantage if you are using his concepts. This is one of the most crucial and useful pieces of the ICT puzzle. You often hear him say that the wicks are painting outside of the lines, which he sees as permissable when he is trading his PD Arrays. So without further ado, I'll try my best to provide some insight.
For illustrative purposes I'll use his Market Maker Sell Model. Just to note that this is not a video teaching about his market maker models, so the focus will not be on that or his other concepts. If you don't understand a certain term or concept, please check out ICT's YouTube Channel or the countless other resources online. This video will be predominantly shedding some light on candle bodies and wicks.
I urge you to go into your own charts and do your own study. This will truly be something eye opening if it is the first time you've actually decided to take notice.
- R2F
R2F Weekly Analysis - 5th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Hi everyone,
Here we are at another Sunday. Time for some analysis.
Everything I had to say is covered in the video, but for a TLDR;
I am still bullish on the Dollar. Although, I'm not convinced we have reached an intermediate bottom yet. I'm still waiting for more confirmation in order to have the highest probability of being on-side. Comparing with other forex assets, I also have the same sentiment. Lower prices for XXXUSD and higher prices for USDXXX, but still waiting for more confirmation for a larger swing trade. For now, scalps at most.
Have a good trading week you guys. Stay safe out there.
- R2F
EURUSD - Updated Analysis (Bearish Bias)Hello hello,
I am anticipating TWO possible scenarios. For context, you would have to know ICT's Concepts, particularly Time & Price Theory, Price Delivery Continuum, and the PD Array Matrix. Sounds fancy shmancy, but it isn't, it's actually quite beautiful.
Anyway, the TWO scenarios are:
1. Price comes up into the RED circle area. We have a large inefficiency on lower timeframes. On the Weekly we see a Body Breaker and a New Month Opening Gap. After that, price displaces lower this Thursday or Friday as there is also NFP. What i'm looking for is price closing below the current SIBI that the Weekly candle is in.
2. Price does not come up to that area this week, then I am looking for a 3W Sibi to be created and traded into first before moving lower. But preferably, I would like to see that no Weekly candle closes above the current Weekly gap.
Please refer to my previous EURUSD analysis for more information on what I am looking for, and how I am looking for it.
- R2F
EURUSD - Time to trap the herd going long?As mentioned in my previous analysis on EURUSD, what I was looking for came to pass. The large swing move did not occur yet, so i'm anticipating one more spike up higher before we head to the downside.
I have a few things leaning towards my short bias:
1. Seasonal tendency for the USD is stronger. This is suspect for XXXUSD pairs to be going up.
2. May's monthly candle barely went lower in terms of Power of 3 manipulation, meaning i'm leaning more towards the manipulation being on the upside rather than downside.
3. DXY has my signature R2F Gap where I anticipate a reversal on EURUSD, and EURUSD has a nice area of inefficiency and a Breaker, which are both my favorite models.
4. Other EURUSD correlated assets are engineering Sellside Liquidity for later.
A long could be taken higher, but I will be stalking the short setup i've been waiting for. I was open to it being the recent spike lower, but I see now the market is trying to do a multiple switcheroo. This will likely be the last one.
So let's see what happens! Exciting times!
- R2F
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello,
My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside.
At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go.
The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY.
- R2F
ETHUSD short term bearish📉ETHUSD will probably reach for those lows since its reacting from a bearish Fair Value Gap.
After it takes out those lows we can start to look for bullish confirmations on Lower Time Frames
EURUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello folks,
I am generally bearish on EURUSD at the moment, and I am still waiting for lower prices, but we could see more bullish momentum first. The logic behind this is of course to lure more bullish traders into the market, but I also do not see any significantly high impact news yet.
However, if you see my other analysis, I am looking for a monthly close below the Monthly iFVG in order to be used as resistance, as mentioned in my previous analysis. That being said, take this trade idea as less than a A+ setup. Most of the probability of this trade lies price being at a ranged Discount, and in the efficacy of my R2F Gap coupled with a possible London Judas Swing.
Safe trading!
- R2F
NZDUSD - Short Trade Idea (ICT)Hello hello everyone,
I see a potentially nice trade forming on NZDUSD. A possible 500+ pips to be had as a swing position.
As you can see, my bias is bearish. I believe we will target the Relative Equal Lows below. I would have to see price start to move lower in the general vicinity of the illustrated path lines. If I don't get an entry in that area, then I would be keen to take one at the Bisi 2W R2F gap should we get a 2W close below it and then a retracement back into it.
Let's see how it goes!
- R2F
GBPJPY - Long Trade IdeaI like the long idea here. If the current day can form a Bisi, that would be fantastic. After that I would just be looking price to trade back into the Bisi, into one of the key Breaker levels annotated, at the right time of the day, then STRIKE.
The highest-probability target would be the recent high, and the next discretionary target would be my Wick Chair model (out of view), which basically also has some EQHs as well. A runner could be left for even higher prices should both targets be hit.
The stoploss is discretionary for a better RR as this is the Daily timeframe. The safest option would be the protected low annotated on the chart.
- R2F
EURGBP - Short Trade IdeaThis is a short idea I have, and most likely it will come to fruition. We have a good liquidity pool taken out with a great reversal displacement. We also have a great draw on liquidity for the buyside.
See here for my analysis on the Daily timeframe.
Refer to my notes within the screenshots for context.
Happy trading!
- R2F
EURUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis is just a "prediction" on what may occur on EURUSD.
Price has reversed to the upside since bottoming out on the 2nd of April 2024. This coincides with the US Dollars seasonal tendency. However, I have been bullish dollar and expecting a continuation of lower prices on XXXUSD currencies. Currently, I am waiting for a reversal to occur, preceded by a final fake-out to bait the herd into going long. This would likely happen at a high-impact news driver such as the upcoming CPI or PPI. There is a Hidden Bearish Orderblock on the 4h timeframe, so that currently is my area of interest for this event to happen.
Of course, this is all just anticipation. If the sequence of events in time and price do not align, I will just wait on the sidelines for more confirmation in market structure.
- R2F
