Inside Bar
USDJPY INSIDE DAY CANDLES: WATCH THE HIGHS AND LOWSHi all, please see this chart first, and press the "load new bars"/play button and see how it played out:
I recently took notice of such formations and have come to appreciate its usefulness.
RATIONALE:
When a pair trends in a certain direction, and such a formation forms, it usually indicates indecisiveness/loss in momentum of the prevailing trend,
because the candle's highs and lows (note: not closing price!) forms WITHIN the highs and lows of the previous candle.
What happens next is traders will watch price action closely to re-determine the sentiment of the market, by watching if price breaks above/below the larger range (previous) candle.
A break of the larger (previous) candle's range will likely see price spike in that direction at around 50pips or more, depending on the buildup of stops/orders.
In such a scenario:
Do note that prices tend to draw back after such price spikes because these are usually quick moves where may stops/orders are placed.
However, after some consolidation, if prices do not withdraw and close back into the high/low range, it usually indicates a continuation prevailing direction.
See an example of how it played out on this chart on 22-24th Dec 2015, and 4-5th Jan 2016
Recently, we have been seeing alot of such formations on the UJ daily due to heightened volatility and drastic moves.
Today, another inside day candle might be underway in formation.
UJ traders should watch the high (117.685) and low (115.973) closely in the subsequent days.
Currently, I remain bearish for UJ, but like I have mentioned in my weekly outlook analysis, do watch out for BOJ surprises (eg. additional easing etc.) that may change sentiment.
Godspeed
Short term short trade on EUR/GBPUsing divergence , Stochastic bearish this time, a temporary short position has lined up on the 4 hour time frame on EUR/GBP. Price has given an inside bar below resistance and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level . Targets may be placed at previous support where price could go to.
Short-term Long trade on S&P500A short term long trade/counter trend trade on the 4 hour time frame taking cue from Stochastic bullish divergence and an inside bar at support and price hitting the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level. A possible pull back into previous resistance is likely where profits may be collected.
Long Coffee FuturesCoffee has been ranging between ~106 and 127. Price touched the bottom of the range and today's activity closed as an inside bar/candle indicating indecision, hence the potential to take a long position and reach for the top of the range.
entry - above high of inside bar
stop loss - below low of mother bar
target - top of the range at ~127
Inside bar set up on GBP/USDRationale for taking a short trade on GBP/USD
- down trend (lower highs and lower lows)
- price pulled back into a previous level at 1.5500 and 200 ema, and closed below both thus encountering resistance
- an inside bar formed just below this level of resistance
- in its pull back, price also found trend line resistance (4th retest) and closed below
- oscillator hidden/trend continuation divergence
entry - below low of inside bar
stop loss - above high of mother bar
target - at or below previous low
SPY - Bullish or Bearish ??This is a WEEKLY chart of the SPY. All moving averages are also weekly. These are longer term signals I am pointing out.
I want to focus on a few things on this chart.
1) The broken uptrend line
2) The new horizontal range
3) The last two weeks and a Monday
1 - The Broken Uptrend Line
There is a green uptrend line that started back in Oct of 2014 and was broken in June of 2015. You will notice that the week of June 8 was the first week the SPY closed below the uptrend line. The closing price for the week was $210.01. What is the rule when an uptrend line is broken? It usually means there could be some downside to come. The longer a "stock" stays below the broken downtrend line, the higher the likelihood it will remain under the downtrend line and that lower prices are in its future.
2 - The New Horizontal Range
The SPY has changed its complexion. It used to mimic a rock climber traversing a mountain. Now it resembles a person walking on a plateau. The question is what will come next? Will this person fall off the edge of the plateau or will the rock climber begin up another mountain. Believe me, I have tried everything to see farther to the right. To see what the next candles look like. "C'mon", I have yelled to my monitor, "Show me more!". But no luck.
As I see it, the bottom of this new range is about $204.50ish and the top of the range is about $212ish. The bottom of the range has held pretty well but the top of the range is not so cut & dry. There have been a couple times where it looked like the SPY would break out of the channel to the upside. But very quickly is just sank back down into the channel again. The SPY is range bound. And it will be until the SPY breaks out of the range one way or the other.
3- The Last Two Weeks and a Monday
Please take a look at the week of July 27 and August 3. I want you to notice that The week of August 3 is an inside week. Meaning the week of August 3rd has a higher low but also a lower high than the week of July 27. You should also notice that today (Monday 8/10) continues the pattern and is also an "inside week". Why is inside week in quotations? Because Monday alone does not make a week. We shouldn't really talk about another inside week when only Monday has passed. Now if Friday comes along and this week has a higher low but a lower high than last week we can lose the quotes and just call this week another inside week. But we will have to wait a few more days for that.
So what is the significance of an Inside Candle anyway? The rule goes like this. If the candle after the inside candle gets higher than the inside candle, then we could see higher prices. If the candle after the inside candle gets lower than the inside candle, then we could see lower prices. So the chart may be telling us (this week) what is coming next...
The high of the week of August 3 is $211.31 and the low is $206.87. Keep those two numbers handy and remember, above $211.31 may point to higher prices while below $206.87 may point to lower prices. There are many other things to consider along the way and many reasons why this rule may not be telling you what it seems. No rule of investing is 100%. But the Inside Candle rule happens often and has a pretty good track record.
I will be keeping an eye on this weekly chart even though I typically trade based on daily charts. I hope you too will remember to look at the longer term picture of a stock that you are trading or investing in. For me, it is nice to step back and look at the longer term trends.
One more thing. The answer to the question in the title of this idea... I just don't know :{ It could go either way. The candle after the inside candle is a hint. You will have to take it from there.
Trade What You See... Not What You Think, Or Feel, Or Hope, Or ...
The Trend Id Your Friend Until It's Not
Limit Risk & Protect Your Profits
Selling EUR/USDLooking at the following to sell EUR/USD:
- inside bar
- 50 ema rejection
- resistance at @1.1100
- Fibonacci cluster:
- 0.786 Fibonacci level rejection from previous swing high to swing low and closes below
- 50% retracement between first swing high at the top of the trend line and closes below
- trend line rejection
- Stochastic and RSI convergence
entry - below low of inside bar
stop loss - above high of mother bar
target - previous swing low or lower
Sell sign on EUR/GBPUsing the following to back a short entry on EUR/GBP on the daily chart:
- inside bar
- resistance at ~0.7120
- mother candle rejects:
- 50 ema and closes below
- 0.786 Fibonacci level and closes below
- Fibonacci cluster
- falling trend line for the 4th time closing within the downward trend channel
- Stochastic hidden bearish divergence (comparison of swing highs), and Stochastic and RSI convergence
entry - below low of inside bar
stop loss - above high of mother bar
target - previous swing low or lower
UPDATE: ALERT! GBPUSD Bullish Deep Crab ***INVALID***UPDATE #2: Prices have now reversed and closed past my PRZ. Therefore, I have closed this trade and will now sit back and see what happens next. I have posted and alternate scenario for what I think will happen if this bearish crab were not to hold. I will now look to that scenario and see what develops after the weekend.
UPDATE: the NFP did cause prices to dip below the PRZ BUT failed to close below it. So the trade and the pattern is still valid. If you got stopped out and did not get back in the trade when prices failed to close below the PRZ, unless you got back in close to the PRZ, I would not suggest to chase the trade. You can put a buy limit order at the D point and wait and see if prices move back down enough to get you in but if prices continue higher towards Target 1, I don't suggest to chase it. Wait till prices hit target 1 and wait for a retrace before attempting to buy for target 2.
As I mentioned in my earlier post on this deep crab completion, I was waiting for prices to penetrate deeper into the PRZ before taking a trade because it is common for that to happen with extension patterns like crab, butterflys and sharks. I was looking for a candlestick reversal formation to give me a sign to take a trade and to reduce my risk on this trade. I got just that with an inside candle and a break of that inside candle to the upside.
I took the trade @1.56000 on the break of the inside candle on the 1-hour chart. In addition, a pin bar is forming on the 4-hour chart but of course, that bar has not yet closed as a pin yet as of this posting. If you have not yet taken this trade, I would wait until the pin bar on the 4-hour time frame closes as a pin and take the trade from there. If you are an aggressive trader, you can take the trade now while prices are still within the PRZ.
Is This Weekly Chart Telling Us Something?I am looking at the weekly $VIX chart. Now this pattern catching my eyes. This is a weekly bullish pattern and it's holding the twenty moving average. We might see another week or maybe 2 of consolidation before a breakout imo.
In this video I am covering my trading levels: youtu.be
AUD/CHF shorting signsSimilar to AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF is setting up for a short opportunity with the following in view:
- inside bar following high test bar in pull back to 50ema
- price rejection at resistance at ~0.8210
- price retraced to 0.618 Fibonacci level which coordinates well within proximity of resistance at ~0.8210
- Stochastic and RSI in overbought territory
- Stochastic and RSI hidden divergence (bearish trend continuation)
entry - below inside bar
stop loss - above mother bar (above previous high test bar)
target - previous swing low at ~0.7830, or lower