Gold's Next Big Move: Analyzing the $2825 Strike and Insider ActLet me start with a disclaimer that I firmly believe in and adhere to: don’t flip the trend; leave that to those who are just here to play around and get their adrenaline fix while watching their accounts explode.
Now, let’s get down to business.
On August 5, 2024, when gold was languishing in a sideways market around $2400 on the CME, an insider option portfolio dubbed the "Call Butterfly" emerged, set to expire on February 25 of the following year. The central strike of this portfolio was chosen at $2825. Due to the nature of such an options portfolio, this specific price level will yield maximum profit at expiration.
To keep the readers engaged and prevent them from dozing off, let me add that the risk-reward ratio for this portfolio is already 1:4. The Insider can choose to close it, but they are under no obligation to do so and can comfortably watch the value of their portfolio rise as it approaches the $2825 mark based on the April futures—don’t confuse this with the spot price of XAU.
Clarifying the Price Dynamics
It's important to clarify that there is a difference between the spot market price, particularly XAU/USD, which forex traders are so accustomed to—thanks to its uninterrupted price movement due to the absence of futures expiration—and the futures price, which includes forward points. Currently, the price of Gold in April futures stands at $2784, just a hop away from the coveted insider portfolio price of $2825.
Why the Confidence in Insider Activity?
Several indicators suggest this is indeed an insider move:
Portfolio Volume: A whopping 9,000 contracts in a distant options series at a far-off strike can only be purchased by a major player, not any average retail trader.
Market Entry Timing : The entry point was during a sideways market, and the news backdrop was, to put it mildly, not in gold's favor.
Immediate Market Reaction: Almost immediately after entering the market, Gold began to climb, doing so with minimal pauses or significant corrections.
Why Bring This Up Now?
You might wonder why I’m highlighting actions that have already occurred, especially since the opportunity to profit from them has passed. The answer is clear: the insider knew when and in which direction to enter, and his exit will likely follow a predictable pattern, leaving traces in the CME reports. If the insider decides to exit, there will be justifiable reasons behind it, which we will only learn about long after the fact.
Starting today, I will actively monitor and analyze the daily reports on gold and specifically this portfolio. Practical experience and statistics suggest that this will provide excellent sentiment regarding the future of the precious metals market.
Good luck to everyone! Stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay committed to your goals.
Insidertrading
VINC a speculative biotech penny stock LONGVINC went from 1.5 to 3.0 in less than three hours with 12X relative volume in the afternoon
after a month of a slow climb from a news release that really did not amount to much. Insiders
are 25% of the shareholders and that may be the story here. This could be manipulation at its
finest. I have to wonder how many insiders bought how many shares and when the rug pull.
This is a high tight bull flag pattern which typically results in another leg higher of the same
magnitude. I suppose that is in clean trading without any manipulation.
If this takes off again it might be worth trying with a small position so long as the trader
can hit a button to close the full position when the sudden reversal occurs. I will trade
this long with a group of moving averages to make alerts for crossing lines and slopes
levelling out and see if it can go anywhere.
GTLB a software company dives on an earnings beat LONGGTLB did a deep dive shaving 20% off its market cap after the earnings report. I see this
big dip as a buying opportunity for a software company stock at a significant discount more or
less ignoring the adverse forward guidance as fluff or purposeful misleading of investors
and traders to create a bit of a bear trap from which to launch a squeeze to propel the price
action. More details on the chart. I will go long here and expect to gain 10-15% with a little
patience. The general market downturn helped GTLB fall and then reversal of the general
market will give tailwind to the return trip. Targets are on the chart based on the high volume
trading range on the volume profile.
LVTX a possible continuation medical technology penny stock LONGLVTX is a pharmaceutical company focused on biologicals for advanced prostate carcinoma.
It recently secured a collaboration agreement with Merck to assist in the clinical trials and
the financial burdens it imposes in a quid pro quo related to a share of product margins in the
future. On the 15-minute chart, LVTX burst out of a long-standing consolidation cycle. The
majority of shareholders per Yahoo Finance are insiders and institutions primarily hedge funds.
These people are not clueless. This is a huge money inflow into the market cap. I intend
to follow the money as I see that price has retraced to a good Fibonacci level and with the
last candle may be on a reversal. I know that institutions tend to buy at the VWAP heavily
and as price is below VWAP the impetus is to buy discounted from VWAP. I will follow
the wisdom, experience and expertise of institutional traders. I will go long and assume the
risk of more of a drop with an ATR stop loss. My goal in the trade is to get a 20% gain by the
close on Monday. Getting into an insider trading move is tricky but it is interesting and
can be profitable.
PLCE crash and flush on pre-emptive warning from executives LONGPLCE as shown on the 30 minute time frame had a "waterfall" event when a bad news catalyst
hit the wires. Executives announced earnings issues one month out from the report due about
March 14th. Maybe is real and may not. The are no filings available to show any insider sell-
off unlike what is going on at General Dynamics at its all-time high. Could those executives
push traders to bail on the stock, force it to crater and then buy even more at the bottom or
have friends and family help them if they are well informed ? Who knows ? Does the CEO of
TSLA have a plan to help share prices drop so when his new compensation plan is set up he
gets even more shares and price rises to make his unrealized losses magically disappear.
Is there manipulation in the market ? Is this a case of it ?
Anyway enough said. PLCE is in early reversal and recovery. It has crossed the moving averages
on the chart and there is a massive volume of buyers scooping from the bottom in the
closing Friday afternoon. I was one of them. My shares and options are few. ( compared with
the CEO/COO/CFO guys at Children's Place.- they typically buy 100,000 shares at a pop - after
all they have the confidence of already knowing what is going on inside) I typically want to
see 2-3X relative volume to put on a big position. This is 4X. Seems the risk is low compared
with a 60% upside back to price levels before the news. Price has already recovered partially.
My stock trade is 5% above break even after less than a day and now has a 3% trail stop so
I don't need to pay attention to it. The call options targeting $19 for March 16th are up 16%
in the first day. I will sell to close a day or two before earnings to hedge my suppositions.
If earnings are as bad as these executives say. The call options will plummet.
My alternative is to keep the call options running but hedge them with a single put option
below ITM for a strike OTM expiring the same day setting up a strangle to take much of the risk
way. In that case, the call options would still fall with a bad earnings miss but the put option
will provide insurance buffering the loss. It remains to be seen how this plays out and I will
check for SEC filings at intervals. For now, I will chase the relative volume because it is higher
than the typical for similar scenarios. Best of luck to any traders who take this trade.
NVDA: $194M Insider LiquidationNVIDIA is presenting potentially lucrative short-term trading opportunities, specifically for derivatives. A months-long ascending triangle is visible on the hourly and daily charts; a second, smaller ascending triangle is potentially forming at the time of this idea.
I believe, and am hopeful for, that the smaller ascending triangle will prove invalid and complete the double-top "M" pattern with selling pressure draining NVDA to the $430 range which falls around the respective 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, I think it would be reckless to count out a potential rebound around $470 which is where the second ascending triangle's support will be tested.
If the $430 support is reached, I believe this will be the time to enter a long call option as I suspect the asset will be retesting the $500 resistance. However, insider liquidation is a major concern especially since the total offload within the last 30 days is equal to $194.3M USD. A link to the SEC filings is posted below.
NASDAQ:NVDA
www.sec.gov
Binance knows your Stop Losses and will liquidate youI have proved before in this post that the big boys are big enough to push the price wherever they want. Now we have the smoking gun.
From the CFTC's suit against Binance:
During the Relevant Period, Binance has traded on its own platform through approximately 300 “house accounts” that are all directly or indirectly owned by Zhao, as well as accounts owned by Merit Peak and Sigma Chain. Zhao has also traded on the Binance platform through two individual accounts. … On information and belief, Binance’s proprietary trading activity on Binance’s own markets is directed by Binance’s “quant desk.”
Binance does not disclose to its customers that Binance is trading in its own markets in its Terms of Use or elsewhere. Consistent with its apparent attempt to keep its proprietary trading activity on its own markets top secret, Binance has refused to respond to Commission-issued investigative subpoenas seeking information concerning its proprietary trading activity on Binance, including transaction data and communications among the members of the Binance “quant desk.”
In other words, they are stopping you out on purpose when they see enough stop losses to give them an opportunity. Liquidating you, deliberately.
I wonder how many Stop Loss Orders there are in the YELLOW areas.
This is not a story about Binance, and I don't expect the exchange to fold. However, it is a story about Crypto, and why, if you want to be a trader, you should probably use FX or Commodities or Stocks or Indeces. While there is lots of manipulation in these too, it's not as blatant and commonplace, because with regulated products the criminals risk jail time.
Free signal: Insider trading on the crypto market exposedSo ETH is going for 1025, you know why ? Because my liquidity is there. Yes you heard it, once it reaches this target i'm wiped out of the game. I'm literally giving you a free signals. I AM the signal.
You don't even need any VIP telegram or some BS. You can literally reverse my trades and move your TP to my liquidation price.
To go in depth:
What happens is that when you use high leverage, their bots automatically flood the market with orders wether buys or sells depending if you're longing or shorting.
So in summary: BTC is a scam and there is nothing decentralized about it. Do you notice whenever BTC move every other alts moves along ? Some of them are supposed to be independent off BTC but
Criminal asians will do it, i'm the leader of the market, i move the market using a few bucks worth of margin on Futures. Literally, 90% of the time it dumps when i long and pumps when i short.
Short it on Spot or Futures using x1 leverage. No need to use a stop loss. You can move your stop loss as shown on the chart but it's not recommended (1100$)
Wish me a happy margin call.
Thanks for reading.
SCHW Insider Transaction 5.01KKHopefully you find the chart helpful in terms of Supports & Resistance etc. we refrain from adding commentary on the chart as that is reserved for our members and we are very conscious of not giving financial or trading advice. Thank you for taking time to consult our chart and we would really appreciate a like, follow or comment