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EUR/USD | Institutional Analysis | Quasimodo PatternOn weekly timeframe, a potential liquidity could float below the double bottom. This is the most likely target. A continuation Quasimodo set up detected on Daily timeframe, so if we believe on our target we could grab the sell opportunity as described on charts. Additionally, we can find an internal liquidity, an extra reason for the market makers to push the price lower. This opportunity seems to be safe as continuation with a strong target closely below. Feel free to write your opinion on comment section. Stay tuned with our ideas for updates and more opportunities!
Short
by antorower
1
HOW-TO Add Precision To Entries & Exits With AutoUFOs (patented)HOW-TO Add Precision To Entries & Exits With AutoUFOs (patented) What does this invite-only script do? This app aims to plot Price regions in a chart where potential BUY and/or SELL Orders are in a pending state. Those potential Orders are expected to be in waiting mode and could be executed once that market revisits or returns to those Price regions. The above concept is the reason for the name of this indicator: Un-Filled Orders (UFOs). Once those potential Un-Filled Orders are filled, a bounce or movement is likely to happen and therefore those UFO areas could be selected for Entries and/or Exits for any type of trade or investment. This may include but is not limited to long-term, intermediate-term, short-term or hedging. The desired trade duration (position, swing or intraday trades) would depend on the time interval (time frame) selected when applying the indicator. For example; by applying the indicator to a chart selected with a daily time interval this is likely to produce trades that could potentially last multiple days or applying it using a 60 minute time interval would likely produce trades that could last a few hours and so on. Note: Those Price regions identified are referred to as UFOs and are automatically plotted in the form of oval shapes in the charts which are also known as “Flying Saucers”. Note: This app can be applied to any interval based on Time (Second, Minute, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Bars), ranges or other. The visual example displays Green and Red UFO Price areas in a chart where Green would suggest that BUY Un-Filled orders may be waiting and Red would suggest that SELL Un-Filled orders may be waiting to be filled. A trader could decide to buy when Price enters the Green UFO and sell when Price enters the Red UFO. Based on that concept, those colored UFOs could be selected to plan trades where a trader, investor or a hedger; is planning to catch and ride a Market move and profit from it (Directional Strategies: Enter or Exit Long or Short Positions). They are expecting that the market will move in a certain direction after hitting and reacting to those Un-Filled Orders (colored areas in the chart) and later reach a certain Exit Price. is planning to profit from selling Out of The Money (OTM) options and collect time decay as these traders are hoping that they will expire OTM (Non-Directional Options Strategies such as Iron Condors, Credit Spreads, Strangles, Straddles, etc.: Profit from time passing while a Market trades within a Range or sideways). They are expecting that a market will not reach a certain point in the chart before a certain date and sell or write options to collect premium waiting for their expiration date while price stays within certain limits without surpassing the Strike Price of the Options sold.  How to manually insert this indicator into a TradingView chart? Step 1: Locate the upper toolbar within the Chart where you plan to insert this indicator, Click on Indicators and Click on Invite-Only Scripts Step 2: Select “AutoUFOs” by left-clicking on it Note: Once this app is inserted in a chart it then needs to be calibrated. Please refer to the Section on Calibration to understand how to perform this process. Which components are displayed? The example illustrates the various components available when using AutoUFOs®: UFO Bands: Are a visual representation of Price regions in a chart where BUY and/or SELL Orders are potentially still in a pending state: Un-Filled Orders (UFOs). Different Colors... Green UFOs would suggest that BUY Un-Filled Orders may be available and Red UFOs would suggest that SELL Un-Filled Orders may be available and waiting to be filled. 4 possible colors are available to visually represent UFOs. Two are variations of Red and the other two are variations of Green. The app assumes that the “purer” the color the greater the potential for a larger amount of Un-Filled Orders. - Red Pure Red Maroon Red - Green Pure Green Olive Green Flying Saucers: The round Flying Saucers are located where the app identifies the greatest concentration of Un-Filled Orders. The app highlights where the key price points are by plotting inner circles within the UFO Band. UFO Price Labels: The two figures displayed point at the upper part of the UFO Band and the lower part of the UFO Band. What Visual settings are available? TradingView has an enormous amount of available customizations that impact the visual look of a chart and the indicators in it, hence our AutoUFOs® app can look slightly different depending on some of those customization settings. Below are a few options that have been proven useful to some of our app users. Keep in mind that TradingView often adds new settings and functionality and therefore other settings not covered in this how-to idea could be helpful as well. To access the customization menu left-click on the wheel located on the bottom right part of the chart.   Indicator Last Value Label: Left-click to check or uncheck. This setting will display or hide the UFO Price Labels. No Overlapping Labels: Left-click to check or uncheck. This setting will stop or allow the UFO Price Labels to overlap. Apart from the above customization options, AutoUFOs® for TradingView has one important input that varies the way on how the UFO Bands are displayed on the screen. To access this input locate the "AutoUFOs" indicator title on the upper left part of your chart and click on the settings wheel. HideHitUFOs: Left-click to check or uncheck. This setting will display UFO Bands with a greater or a lesser concentration of Un-Filled Orders. Note: The grey UFO Bands represent areas of price with a lesser concentration of Un-Filled Orders and therefore these are likely to produce lower probability trades. How to calibrate this app? Calibration is a key process in defining how the analysis is carried out and will impact the potential results obtained by the user using this app. The calibration input is down to the user’s personal judgement and is at their own risk. A few steps will be needed to calibrate AutoUFOs®. The following steps will need to be repeated in a cycle until the app user is satisfied with the results. Step 1: Access the input dialog box by following the below steps: Locate the AutoUFOs indicator title on the upper left part of your chart. Click on the settings wheel. Notice the default calibration setting is set to 0.5. Feel free to change to any value between 0 and 1. click "OK" Step 2: Find and left-click on the “Replay” button located in the upper part of your chart. This will get you ready to begin a back-test process in order to adjust the calibration input.   Step 3: Notice the vertical red line. Move it to a desired date/time in the past and left-click in order to set that date/time as the origin of the back-test. Step 4: A new chart will load with the last bar on the chart being the one where the above vertical red line was located. Use the rectangle drawing tool to mark two UFO Bands of your choice where one should be Green and the next one should be Red or vice-versa. Step 5: Once this is done you are ready to replay the market and observe how this market reacted to your current settings. Using the replay bar, click on play and observe the movement of the new candles forming until price touches one of your rectangles and make notes to report if price turned and reached the rival UFO Band marked with the opposing rectangle or if price didn't react properly to the UFO Band you selected. Note: When performing this process you could certainly add additional rules that you may have in your current trading plan and combine those rules while you perform this back-test process. Note: Since some failed trades are to be expected, one of the objectives of this calibration process is to fine-tune the settings of the app in a way where you gain an adequate performance and by doing so you become familiar with its functionality and while you begin developing the skillset needed to trade efficiently with it. Step 6: In order to exit the chart replay mode, click on the cross located on the right extreme of the “Replay” floating tool bar Step 7: If this exercise was satisfactory enough, you could decide that the Calibration parameter used will be the one you would use for your trades moving forward. If you are not fully satisfied with the statistical performance obtained, you would need to go back to Step 1, change the calibration input to a greater or lesser value between 0 and 1 and redo the above back-test process until reaching results that are satisfactory enough. Note: When performing this process you could chose to use the AutoUFOs® app by itself, calibrate it and then add additional trading rules when trading, or you could run the process and combine your trading rules together with the app and run the calibration process altogether. Note: The chart replay mode does not work with continuous futures ticker symbols such as ES1!, CL1! or GC1!. When calibrating the app to trade Futures products you would need to avoid using continuous ticker symbols and use contract-specific ticker symbols.   Examples on how to use this app? The following approaches describe two different ways on how a trader, investor or a hedger could use this app. There probably are many other ways to make this app useful and we would love to receive your suggestions and know more about your experiences as well. Please treat the following examples for demonstration purposes and feel free to comment below and phrase your questions, experiences and ideas. Going Long (by Buying Low and Selling High in order to profit from a rising market) or Going Short (by Selling High and Buying Low in order to profit from a falling market) The thought behind Going Long or Going Short is to enter a market ready to catch and ride a market move in a given direction and profit from it: Going Long would profit from an upwards move, where Going Short would profit from a downwards move. In order to do so, the opening and closing time of the trade is critical since entering or exiting too soon or too late would end up in a problematic situation. The Un-Filled Orders (UFOs) concept behind the AutoUFOs® app could certainly be useful when aiming to identify the best moment to initiate a trade and when to finalize it and collect any profit that may have been produced. Selling Options and keep the Premium collected The thought behind Selling Options and keep the Premium collected is based on identifying certain places on a price chart that are not likely to be reached and Sell Options with strike prices beyond those places. The Options contracts sold would be Out of the Money (OTM) and they would remain OTM until their expiration date as long as the Market price does not reach the Strike price of the Options sold within that given period of time. If all of the above was true, the trader would have collected the Premium for selling those Options that would expire worthless, allowing the trader to keep that previously collected Premium. The Un-Filled Orders (UFOs) concept behind the AutoUFOs® app could be useful to theoretically identify certain places on a chart that are likely or unlikely to be reached anytime soon. Keeping in mind the concept that when a market enters a UFO the expectation would be to see a reaction or a bounce from that price region adding duration to a trade. Think of a case where those UFOs are quite far from the current available price or cases where there are multiple UFOs upon UFOs. In this instance it would be reasonable to expect that a market with these characteristics is unlikely to surpass any of those UFOs anytime soon and therefore an Options trader could capitalize on a setup like this by Selling Options where price is unlikely to reach. In addition to this, time passing would lead to a decay of the Options Premiums helping this type of trade to accumulate profitability little by little, keeping in mind that nothing stops time from passing. Furthermore, think in terms of probability and ask yourself the following question: what is of a higher probability? To determine with precision where a market is going to turn and where it is headed to, or to determine where a market is not likely to go within a certain amount of time? If you would rather choose the second case you may be interested in using advanced Options Strategies such as Iron Condors where a profit would be produced from time passing while a Market trades within a Range or sideways. In other words while a Market remains trading within a Range defined by Red UFOs and Green UFOs causing its price to remain range bound during a given period of time as a consequence of the potential bounces produced when its ¬¬price travels from UFO to UFO (Green-to-Red or Red-to-Green). Note: In all cases described in this how-to idea, it would be advisable to have a contingency plan on what to do in case a market moves against the trader, investor or the hedger. The use of Stop Market Orders, Protective Long Options Contracts or any other type of risk management technique could be useful. These sort of decisions are to be taken by the user of this app. Legal Considerations Disclaimer: When using this App you understand and acknowledge that the risk of trading can be substantial and that each investor and/or trader must personally consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual, or indicated by simulated historical tests of indicators, is not indicative and in no way a guarantee of future results. Your actual trading may result in profits or losses as no trading system is, or can be, guaranteed. By using this app, you accept full responsibility for your actions, the trades taken and any profits and losses made. You also agree not to hold the developer of this app responsible for any outcome arising out of your use of this app.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
6
Institutional Analysis: Large Stop Loss Cluster Above the Price1. Too many fresh buyers come into play. That means that market will reverse soon (short term reversal) 2. Overall we have downtrend, so we are looking for continuation 3. At the bottom we have large stop loss cluster (around 5.5%) 4. Too many retailers runs in profit and this is sign of short term reversal 5. 60% of retailers runs long positions, that means that we need to look only for sell orders. We could jump into trade right now but the stop loss cluster above the price is a magnet form smart money, so we will wait for more safe entry above them.
Short
by antorower
Banks Accumulate Positions | Large Stop Loss Clusters DetectedAs we know the big players chase the stop losses of retailers to get liquidity. They hit their stop losses and the price returns immediately to make a profit. In this idea we found a large stop loss cluster (5.52%) below the price while the exchange rate is downtrend. This is the potential target of the big players because there they will find the liquidity they are looking for. The general philosophy is that the crowd loses long term money. Right now it has been placed long and since most retailers lose money if we place them upside down we have to end up on the right side. At this time the retailers are positioned 65.5% long and 35.5% short. This means that for the time being we should only look for short positions. Additionally 2% of fresh buyers come in (24/8/2021 | 6:00 A.M.), this is an extra confirmation for our short position. The price will return when the big players collect enough liquidity. The whole range up to the orange line has several stop losses, so anywhere in this zone we expect the price to return targeting the large cluster of liquidity low at 5.52%. Because the trade is downtrend overall the trade is considered safe. We have hidden our stop loss above the next cluster of retailers so that even if we are wrong and the price continues to go up by hitting the stop loss of other retailers but not ours.
Short
by antorower
Institutional Analysis: Manipulation detected on USDJPYAt 1H timeframe we see a clear manipulation upwards with the result that big players run long positions in loss which they have to close. When the price returns there we can enter a short position to take advantage of this small correction. There is no trend in the market, so a change at this point seems realistic. For the moment, many buyers come out of the market. That means that the price will come soon to this price. We will place our stop loss above the institutional candlestick and our take profit above the previous lows. Fell free to write your opinion in the comments.
by antorower
Institutional Analysis | Charming manipulation on Daily At the daily timeframe we detected a manipulation. Trade seems safe since in a larger timeframe there is a strong uptrend. Open positions of big players run negatively where the price is. They will probably start closing on Monday, and the market will move upwards. Our stop loss will be under candlestick that collected liquidity and take profit a little below the previous high. We could easily pull our take profits to the orange zone since the point is a target for the big players due to the liquidity that the double top has accumulate over there. However, the safe option is a little lower than the previous high.
Long
by antorower
5
Institutional Analysis: Strong Manipulation on Strong Support The price reached the institutional candle. Many sell banks positions will close resulting in a strong reversal. The most demanding traders would expect the price to approach as close as possible to the low of the institutional candlestick, but even now the entry gives a good risk / reward and the stop loss keeps us safe from a break of the double bottom that has formed. Trade is in the direction of the trend of larger timeframes, so it is considered safe although small timeframes are considered reversal.
Long
by antorower
Institutional Analysis: Strong manipulation detectedIn the 1H timeframe we find a fairly strong manipulation that keeps open buy positions of big players in loss. If the market returns to this point immediately we can look for our entry above the internal range liquidity. In the red zone is the optimized entry that will give a satisfactory risk / reward ratio. We have to be careful because the structure has already broken further back, so the current upward movement can be considered reversal, so that this trade can theoretically be found contrary to the trend that is going to be created. Our stop loss must go just above the high of the institutional candlestick and the take profit just before the previous lows of the structure.
by antorower
2
Institutional Analysis: Daily on crucial zoneDaily timeframe has already broken the area of ​​liquidity below the low of April and has shown a slight upward mood. We must pay attention to the two lows of Autumn because if the market does not intend to return to these areas, it will certainly break this zone to collect massive liquidity. The trade at this point is quite risky with not so good risk / reward. The best idea is to let the price get as close as possible to the aforementioned lows so that our stop loss can be placed in such a way that a break does not take us out with the mass of retailers who have placed pending orders just from below. After the entry we should pay special attention to the red dangerous zone in which is the institutional candlestick that gathered the positions from above. At this point there are open buy positions which the banks will try to close by creating a rather small retracement. Maybe a very small partial could be justified. The trade should reach the target relatively easily in the first half of September. Related Ideas Link has the same analysis from monthly perspective.
Long
by antorower
Institutional Analysis: Price on crucial support zonePrice approaching crucial zone. A confirmed manipulation has already formed at the top of the range, that means that the price have to return to that level to let banks get rid of losing positions. The fact that August breaks the previous lows means that a potential manipulation lurks. This is an extra reason to believe that the price will raise soon. However, the lows of September and November can offer plenty of liquidity to banks. Trade now is risky, but if the price goes down we will be able to place our stop loss below these lows to stay safe even from an eventual break - and take profit below the level that bank will start selling their open positions. Keep in mind that reversal is always risky, but the impressive reward sometimes justifies the pluck. You can drop timeframe to find the correct moment to jump into the reversal. Risk/Reward ratios is around 1:7. Risk recommended to be no more than 0.5% on reversals.
Long
by antorower