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Bitcoin CME Report for 10 Jan to 17 Jan and AnalysisCME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Merchantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises institutional trading of Bitcoin. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday before that. Basically, showing a week-long snapshot of institutional positions on Bitcoin and in this idea post from Tuesday 10 Jan to Tuesday 17 Jan which is back-dated by 3 days. Bitcoin CME Report for Tuesday 10 Jan 2023 to Tuesday 17 Jan 2023: From the 10th to the 13th of January price increased from $17.1k to $19.9k before a 2-day break for the weekend. Most notably from Monday the 16th and Tuesday the 17th the CME gapped up, meaning that the close price from Friday (CME closes for weekend trading) the price of Bitcoin increased from $19.9k and opened on Monday at $20.9k. This creates a “Gap”, and by rule, gaps do not have to be filled how ever probability says they have a higher fill rate than not fill rate. That gap has now been reduced from $20.4k to $19.9k but largely still exists. In this period we see that Dealers and Intermediaries (The Exchanges / Brokerages) reduced their longs by 100 positions while still maintaining 3600 short positions. This is very different from what usually occurs in relation to lower timeframe price action as we see Dealers and Intermediaries usually adjusting their positions more regularly to catch the Major Moves Asset Managers still largely out of Position: The other interesting figure from a more accurate perspective is how out of position the Asset Managers have been in the last year plus as they began heavily building longs at the highs in the fall of 2021 and now they have begun to heavily increase their positions in this weeklong period by a further 800 positions. This means that compared to short positions Asset Managers and Institutions are 95.8% Long. Dealers and Intermediaries are still Short: To bring this into perspective Dealers and Intermediaries are still 94.69% Short having heavily shorted in the fall of 2021 and then built and continuously added major shorts from April and from the Summer of 2022, continuously increasing their positions until now. Summary: This most recent COT report is interesting as it shows Asset Managers and Institutionals building longs at the same time as we have good market movement to the upside. This means that we are potentially seeing Asset Managers and Institutionals breaking their losing streak of being out of position consistently in the past 18 months or so. The major move-up in Crypto has been driven by extreme bearish sentiment and heavy shorting in the market as every continuous move-up is met by heavy shorting from retail actors thus providing more liquidity to move price upwards. The gap is down at $19.9k and is still in place and breaking any significant structure above still gives the opportunity for the market to capitalize on taking out later longs that got into position over $20k. The upside move is still in play until support is broken, a new gap that could be formed come the Monday open on Jan 23rd would potentially provide an incentive for market movement as we open the week. Our recommendation is simple, the upside should continue until we have a significant break of structure. Late Longs have not been significantly punished as heavier liquidity is building below us.
CME:BTC1!
by TrendmasterOfficial
2
Everything you need to know about order block 5 RULES | TUTORIALToday we're going to talk about orderblocks. Very simply, an orderblock is the support and resistance of big players. It is stronger and more important than what you draw on a chart expecting a price reaction by classical technical analysis. This works absolutely everywhere in cryptocurrency, forex, and the stock market. I have deduced for myself 5 rules of confirmation, and now we will go over each of them. Let's start with schemes and end with an example on a chart. Orderblock is a candlestick that shows purchases or sales of large capital. When a bullish orderblock is formed, an accumulation or reaccumulation takes place in order to further markup the asset. When a bearish orderblock is formed, a short position is accumulated or reaccumulated. With the purpose of further asset markdown. The first rule is liquidity. We have a zone from which the price gets a reaction and goes in the opposite direction. This forms a support zone for those who trade classic technical analysis. Traders place their orders in this zone, which is what the big capital hunts for. Accordingly, this level is pierced by the flow of orders, which activates these stops. This is how liquidity is removed from the area. The last bearish full-body candle will be our orderblock. It is important that it updates past lows. An analogy would be the wicks of candle, which removes liquidity from past lows. The wick of a candle in this case is an orderblock on a lower TF. The second rule is confirmation After withdrawal of liquidity we expect confirmation of this orderblock - that is absorption and movement in the opposite direction. The confirmation should be impulsive. That is, we should not see how the price is stuck in this confirmation. It concerns the absorption (updating) of the order block. It is possible inside the candle (orderblock). But personally, I try to take the "book variant". Local consolidations can indicate the weakness of the movement. It doesn't mean that the orderblock will not work out in the end, but the probability decreases. The third rule is structure breaking (bos) One of the key points is the breakdown of structure that this orderblock provides. This is how we can understand the mood of the market and the intentions of big capital. In this example, we can highlight the main structure with the yellow line. It is after updating a significant structural element that we can be almost sure of the truth of our orderblock. If we don't see a break in structure, then this movement may just be a correction within a downtrend. So keep an eye on this one. The fourth rule is the law of force (momentum) After confirming our orderblock, we can see a prolonged correction in the OTE (make a Fibo). That is, we should see an impulse and after it a slow sluggish movement downwards, which will also form liquidity behind each local high. This is not a necessary factor, but if it is present, the probability of a trend reversal will increase many times over. The fifth rule - the volume and spread of candles The candlesticks should be full-bodied with increased volumes. It will be important to monitor the "distance" that the price has done. All these factors will also indicate the veracity of the movement. This recommendation concerns more about swing trading, moments when the price is in a trend for a long time without a serious correction and test of the formed order block. Examples on the chart On the daily TF I marked a Sell to Buy move. I marked it this way because there were no warrant blocks to satisfy me on the higher timeframe. This area will act as a zone of interest. The structure on the Hourly TF looks like this. Consequently, we expect a confirmation of our orderblock through a break of the structure. The price entered the sell to buy zone and tested the order block, which was formed from the wick of the candle. We saw an impulse exit and watch the price go up sluggishly, forming liquidity behind each low. Therefore, we expect an orderblock test. I recommend backtesting on chart history to better understand how order block works. Thank you for your attention, I hope it was useful
Education
by Patronofbargain
5