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$GBPUSD - Sterling Needs More Attractive Price for Buyers *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm sorry, but you won't convince me that Tesla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react to that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines , etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* As the price of the pound has fell to record lows this year, During the london session it dropped a filled a daily fair value gap. However it has not returned tp the starting gap price to completely fill in the imbalance. Sterling is usually a sure bet when thinking long term VS the USD, it's going to need to drop a little more for Investors to feel safe with their money in the Sterling again. With the current wave and the dollar moving up, The pound Should be heading down toward below a current liquidity level and the bulloish order Block. I may have already missed the best entrance, and it could just be going straight down in here, but I have my traders hunch it will pull up during the US session and fall last minute. This trade may take a while to play out not just two days like my EURUSD trade did. However to get there it will have to create an illusion that it will buy during the NY SESSION and instead will fall into next week possibly. Or it could create equal lows giving the illusion of support and the up into the red and drop OANDA:GBPUSD TVC:DXY BET:GBPUSD1! CME_MINI:M6B1!
Short
by BodiesXWix
1
EUR / CHF LONG - Potential trend changeAfter we have been in a downtrend in the EUR/CHF pair for quite some time, I expect a potential trend change. - the existing rally in the DXY could come to an end in the near future, which would ease the pressure on the EUR. I provide the idea with the consideration of rules of "SUPPLY&DEMAND" theory, which focuses on market influence of banks. The market moves when banks open positions: - in our case it is a LONG position - of banks / large investors. - by buying, retail investors were forced to liquidate their SHORT positions = "positions were bought" = "buying cascade". The banks need more than one run-up to fill their position "100%" due to their position size. - the next run-up could be into the 0.88 FIBO in my opinion, so that the banks get a similar purchase price. (Level combined with DEMAND.) - the retail investors will not expect a trend reversal and will open more SHORT positions, allowing the banks to get the liquidity they need. If the SL level (stop loss) I set is broken, we can expect a further sell-off. (Should it not be a fake-out). - There are on the time levels 1-4h large "DEMAND" zones at entry, which should bring about a reaction. - The banks are not interested in the price falling below their EC, so they will defend this level. If you disagree, feel free to let me know - I am still in the learning process. Thank you and happy trading!
Long
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
2
Large Move to ComeOpen interest on Binance (yellow line above) has increased significantly since mid June, while open interest on CME (blue line above) has stagnated. An over-heating retail derivative market along with a weakening institutional derivative market often leads to price declines for bitcoin. Liquidity issues continue and long-term holders are still selling in losses. With the U.S. Dollar Index at all time high, the rising opportunity costs lower the chance of entering a cyclical bull market. Furthermore, bitcoin has retested the 17-18k support from June many times now. Without signs of strength, the more times this level gets tested, the more likely it’s going to break.
Short
by Phi-Deltalytics
4
USDCAD LONGSOff the daily, its not a rejecting pb. Its in the middle and hence a reaching pb. The daily candle is bullish after London session. Makes sense to look for longs on ltf. On h4 , look left and a previous swing low was taken out. This shows a strong origin. On m15, a good number of previous lows have been taken out(More than 2). This indicates a strong origin. We notice bullish momentum to a point that has been touched previously taking out the pre existing orders as the market ranged around that area and we expect a RTO. The Buy order is executed with tp at 50% of the origin and sl at the previous lowest low of the current m15 market. An extra order is added on m1 time frame off an order block and the trade is pyramided for maximal returns. Now we wait to see the trades results. Our work is done as as retail trade analysts. Now we wait. See you on the next trade ideas ladies and gents. Share & follow if this was of value.
Long
by Abraham_Tradez
2
Wyckoff: Distribution in Phase BCurrently tokyo confirmed that we are in a trading range creating the SOW in Phase B of Distribution in the 5 minute time frame. sadly I coudlnt post that chart up which shows distribution in 4K because Trading view didnt let me share anything that had a lower time frame than 15 minutes. But with these lows printed, we can only assume that it will slowly move up until london session is ready to take the liquidity that lies above. Taking out today's NY highs and making new highs which we will call the UT. This will then lead us to confirm that NY will take all the liquidity tomorrow opening and shoot it straight down for correction of the market to an imbalance zone.
FX:XAUUSD
by BlueSharkTradingFx
SHORT BTC TO 19k SMCTheory behind this one is the bearish trend we have been facing on BTC. THE DOLLAR IS UNDERVALUED, the trillions printed will show in this week. Combined with the increased interest rates. It’s simply not the correct environment for a crypto bull run. Im expecting a retracement at least on BTC starting Monday. Institutions will capitalise on the FOMO longs during this recent pump. Loads of liquidity built on the buy side, time to test these levels. Whatever goes up must come down. Never risk more than one percent and do your own research. This is not financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by aasif2022
5
USDJPY Sell Limits UpdateUJ created a bearish flag where most retail traders sold the "breakout" of the flag, which actually turned out to be a fake out to liquidate retail buyers from buying the bottom of the "trend line channel" aka "support line" and to liquidate sellers from selling the "fake breakout" of the bearish flag. Our price entry targets is still in play, as well as profit target levels. Never make a permanent trading decision based on your emotions, patience is key. WE get paid to wait for the best setups to trade.
by TRADER_AP_FX