Market Recap And Next Weeks Plan📉 Market Recap & Next Week’s Plan
Last week, we saw GBP/USD make a bullish push early in the week, forming a high on Wednesday before reversing and breaking structure on the 4H time frame.
Key levels of 1.29512 and 1.29105 were taken out, signaling a potential shift towards a bearish move.
Next Week’s Expectations
I’m anticipating a retracement before continuation, and I’ll be watching for selling opportunities at key levels.
📍 Potential Sell Zones:
🔹 1.29622 (High-interest POI, higher probability of forming)
🔹 1.29794
🔹 1.29893
📍 Potential Buy Zone (If Market Drops Further):
🔹 1.28848
Overall Bias:
📉 Bearish – I’ll be focused on selling opportunities unless the market structure shifts significantly.
Patience is key. Let’s see how the market develops this week.
💬 What’s your bias for next week? Let me know in the comments. 👇
#ForexTrading #MarketOutlook #GBPUSD #TradingPlan
Institutional_trading
2025 ICT Mentorship: Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 4_Premium & Discount Price Delivery Intro
Greetings Traders!
In this video, we dive into the fundamental concept of Premium and Discount Price Delivery—a crucial aspect of smart money trading that helps us understand how institutions approach the market with precision and efficiency.
Understanding Currency Pairs
Before we explore premium and discount dynamics, it's essential to grasp the basics of currency pairs. A currency pair, like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, represents the value of one currency against another. For example, EUR/USD shows how many U.S. dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one euro (the base currency). Just like any other tradable asset, currency pairs fluctuate in value due to various economic and market factors.
Trading Is Part of Everyday Life
Believe it or not, everyone in the world is a trader. Whether you're buying groceries at a store or negotiating for goods and services, you're participating in trading activities daily. Some people aim to purchase items at a discount, while others can afford to pay a premium—it’s simply part of life.
However, banks and financial institutions take trading to another level. They don’t just trade haphazardly—they operate with extreme precision, aiming to make high-quality investments by executing trades at premium prices and targeting discount levels. This strategic approach allows them to capitalize on market inefficiencies and ensure profitable outcomes.
Why Premium and Discount Matter?
The concept of premium and discount price delivery is foundational for understanding how the market moves. By recognizing where the market is trading at a premium (overvalued) versus a discount (undervalued), traders can make more informed decisions and align their strategies with institutional order flow.
Stay tuned as we break down how to identify these zones on a chart and how to incorporate them into your trading strategy. Make sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an update!
Happy Trading,
The_Architect
Institutional and Retail Traders: Where the Difference LiesInstitutional and Retail Traders: Where the Difference Lies
There are many players in the financial markets who can cause changes in trend direction, but let’s focus on institutional and retail traders. This FXOpen article compares retail vs institutional trading. You’ll learn about the characteristics of these types of traders, how they affect the markets, as well as the differences and similarities between them.
What Is a Retail Trader?
Let’s start with a retail trader definition. Retail traders refer to individual traders or small investors who participate in trading for speculative purposes.
They typically trade with smaller capital and have fewer resources and less access to information than institutional traders. Retail traders often use leverage, which allows them to control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital. Leverage may increase potential returns, but it also escalates the exposure to substantial losses.
The collective impact of retail trading has grown significantly in recent years, shaping market dynamics. The rise of online platforms has democratised financial markets, allowing retail traders to participate more actively. Their collective actions can amplify market trends and contribute to increased market volatility.
How Do Retail Traders Trade?
Retail traders often engage in day, swing, and news trading. They usually rely on online resources for self-education. They may attend educational courses and use the services of mentors. They may use technical analysis, social media discussions, or market sentiment analysis to inform their decisions.
The collective power of retail trader communities, fuelled by social media discussions, can impact asset prices. The “Reddit effect” exemplifies how retail trading, through online forums, can challenge traditional market dynamics.
What Is an Institutional Trader?
What is institutional trading? Let’s first take a look at the institutional market definition. In the context of trading, the institutional market refers to the segment of the overall market where institutions and corporations manage their assets. Institutional traders buy and sell different financial instruments for the accounts they manage on behalf of others, and they handle large pools of capital. Therefore, they can influence market trends and liquidity. Their collective actions may lead to market-wide shifts, affecting prices and levels of volatility.
Examples include hedge funds, mutual funds, investment banks, endowment funds, pension funds, and insurance companies. They have different goals, for example, hedge funds pursue absolute returns, and investment banks engage in market-making and proprietary trading.
How Do Institutional Traders Trade?
Institutional trading is characterised by its scale and impact. By handling significant volumes of capital, they take advantage of access to privileged information and influence market movements. For example, in institutional forex trading, central banks have the greatest price impact in the spot FX market, followed by hedge funds and mutual funds, while regular traders have much less influence on dealer pricing.
Institutions commonly employ sophisticated strategies, such as quantitative trading and algorithmic trading. Their strategies often involve in-depth market analysis and the use of advanced instruments.
Retail Trader vs Institutional Trader: Key Differences
The primary differences between institutional and retail traders lie in factors such as capital, risk tolerance, and time horizons. These and other aspects are collected in this table:
Aspect - Retail - Institutional
- Capital - Limited capital - More capital-rich
- Price Influence - Limited influence - More significant influence
- Knowledge - Self-taught, usually from internet resources - Educated in finance or economics from college
- Trading focus - Technical systems, price patterns, indicators - Fundamentals and trading psychology
- Account - Personal accounts - Accounts they oversee on behalf of a group or institution
- Time of trading - A shorter time horizon - A longer time horizon
- Risk tolerance - Disciplined risk management, a lower risk tolerance - A higher risk tolerance, a focus on growth
- Market Access - Retail and online brokerages with standard trading instruments - More difficult instruments, including swaps
These differences profoundly impact trading strategies. Institutions can afford more complex and resource-intensive strategies, while retail traders may focus on simpler approaches. Time sensitivity, risk aversion, and regulatory constraints further differentiate their decision-making processes.
Similarities and Overlaps
While institutional and retail traders differ in many aspects, there are areas where their trading strategies may converge. Both groups may use similar trading tools and strategies, for instance, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and algorithmic trading.
The influence of technology has also contributed to blurring the lines between these trading types. Retail traders can now access sophisticated tools, while institutions may adopt more agile and cost-effective technologies.
You may trade over 600 assets at the TickTrader trading platform using modern instruments for market analysis.
Final Thoughts
Institutional and retail traders play distinct but significant roles in the financial markets. While institutions have advantages such as access to more financial instruments and extensive resources, retail traders have the flexibility and freedom in trading decisions.
The convergence of strategies and the evolving influence of technology indicate that the landscape will continue to shift, creating new opportunities and challenges for traders across the spectrum. If you want to trade on various markets with tight spreads and low commissions, you can open an FXOpen account.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CHF Short Setup – Institutional Flow & Liquidity TargetsUSD/CHF is setting up for a bearish move, with confluence from technical structure, order flow, and fundamental events. Here’s a complete breakdown of the setup, execution plan, and institutional positioning.
📊 Trade Execution & Technical Breakdown
🔹 Entry Zone: Price rejected from the 0.8786 - 0.8794 supply zone, aligning with 0.62 - 0.79 Fibonacci retracement levels.
🔹 Confluences:
✅ Bearish trend continuation – Lower highs forming.
✅ Liquidity grab above minor resistance, suggesting smart money distribution.
✅ Break & retest structure confirms potential downside.
🔹 Target Zones:
📉 First target: 0.8767 (previous low & liquidity area).
📉 Final target: 0.8750 (-0.62 Fibonacci extension).
📌 Market Structure:
Higher timeframe bearish bias remains intact.
Supertrend (4H) signals continued downside.
EMA alignment (1D) confirms selling pressure.
🏦 Institutional Positioning & Market Sentiment
📌 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights:
📈 USD: Institutional long positions declining, indicating potential USD weakness.
📉 CHF: Increased net short positioning, suggesting institutional flow favoring CHF strength.
📌 Liquidity & Order Flow Data:
Market depth shows heavy short positioning near resistance.
Volume profile indicates a lack of demand above 0.8780, confirming weak bullish momentum.
⚡ Fundamental Drivers – Key News Events
📊 Macroeconomic Data Impacting USD/CHF:
📌 Employment Trends Index (108.35) – USD strength limited.
📌 T-Bill Auction & Treasury Buyback – Potential liquidity shifts affecting risk sentiment.
📌 Fed’s Beige Book & Policy Outlook – Key for USD direction.
🛑 Impact on Trade:
✔️ USD uncertainty fuels risk-off flows into CHF.
✔️ Short-term retracement provides an ideal short entry before further downside.
📈 Volatility & Liquidity Insights
📌 Prime Market Terminal Data:
ATR shows increased volatility, supporting large price swings.
Institutional short positioning rising, indicating strong bearish control.
DMX data suggests liquidity buildup below 0.8760.
🔥 Conclusion – High-Probability Short Setup
✅ Bearish trend structure aligns with institutional positioning.
✅ Liquidity grab above resistance confirms distribution phase.
✅ Confluence of technicals, fundamentals, and order flow supports downside movement.
📌 Short Bias: Targeting 0.8767 → 0.8750.
📌 Key Invalidations: A break above 0.8800 could shift sentiment.
💬 What’s your take on USD/CHF? Let me know in the comments! 🚀📉
Scalper’s Paradise Part 2 – Insights on TransactionsThis is my second post and the continuation of the Scalper’s Paradise series . In this installment, I’ll dive into transactions—more commonly known as volume . While everyone is aware of it, few truly utilize it effectively. From a retail trader’s perspective, volume is often misunderstood and misused. That’s why today, I’ll break it down and provide exceptional insights, drawing from my institutional experience as a professional trader.
First, let’s clarify what volume really is. Volume is simply the total number of transactions between buyers and sellers. For example, if one buyer wants to purchase a single stock and a seller is willing to sell that stock, the transaction is recorded as one, meaning the volume reflects 1.
Now, if we see that the volume for a given period is 1,000 traded stocks, this means there were 1,000 buyers and 1,000 sellers. It’s crucial to understand that there are always an equal number of buyers and sellers in any transaction.
With this in mind, we can debunk a common misconception: when we see high volume and price movement, it’s incorrect to say there were "a lot of buyers" or "a lot of sellers"—because both sides are always equal. The real reason behind price movements is a different story, and one that I’ll cover in a future post.
Now, let’s take a look at a chart that’s particularly useful for day trading, especially when combined with the volume indicator.
Here, you can see a 10-second chart, which is particularly effective for spotting algorithmic trades used by institutions.
Now, I’ve marked the high-volume areas with a vertical line. Remember, high volume indicates a significant level of market activity.
Now, I’ve marked the candles that had the highest relative trading volumes.
But what can we do with all this information?
Why is high volume so important?
First , high volume disrupts the market. It clearly signals that a major player is in need of liquidity. The reasons behind this can vary, as discussed in Part 1 of this series, but for now, let’s focus on the key takeaway: big players need volume.
When a market participant requires large volume, their activity becomes visible in chunks, revealing parts of their trading strategy. This is exactly why we use 10-second charts—to spot these institutional trades more easily. Once we identify them, we can determine the price levels where they are beginning to accumulate or distribute their positions.
The second reason is more of an institutional strategy rather than something easily executed by retail traders—but I’ll explain it anyway. During my time as an institutional trader, my performance was often evaluated based on how efficiently I could accumulate volume over time. This required finding other large players in the market.
Let’s say I needed to take a long position. To do so, I required sellers on the other side. If I spotted a large player selling, I could use their selling pressure to gradually accumulate my position around their activity. This strategy allowed me to secure better prices over time by executing fewer, larger trades instead of aggressively chasing liquidity.
Ultimately, this is the core objective of an institutional trader—maximizing position size while maintaining optimal pricing.
How Can Retail Traders Use This Information to Improve Their Trading?
1) Identify high-volume areas on a 10-second chart.
2) Mark these levels on your chart.
3) Wait for a breach of these levels and trade in the direction of the breakout.
If there is no breakout, you can align yourself with the large player instead.
For example, if a big player is accumulating buy orders, mark that level and observe whether they continue to hold their position. If they do, you can go long alongside them. However, if other traders (as I did in my institutional trading days) start pushing against that big player, wait for a breach of your marked level and look for short opportunities instead.
Keep in mind that we are talking about day trading and scalping, meaning these are short-term trades. The goal is to capitalize on immediate price movements rather than holding positions for extended periods.
Here, you can see the levels we discussed earlier. Notice how the market clearly reacts to these easily identifiable levels—though trading them successfully is not as simple.
I always use order flow and Level 2 data to confirm my trade ideas.
Wishing you good luck and plenty of valuable insights from my post!
Marco
PSX FFL TRADE IDEA LOOKING STRONG ON H2 AND H4FFL IS LOOKING STRONGON H2 AND H4. The stock retest its equal low where all of the big liquidity was resting at 14.50 Now the stock is heading to the next h2 resistance the breakout at H2 resistance with good volume will start a quick uptrend. Watch for volumes and orderbook.
The next target will be the previous lower low around 16.
Trading above EMA 21 at H2 AND H4.
VOLUME GAINER.
Buy before breakout if the volumes are rising watch on shorter time frame and see how the price reacts near the resistance. WATCH THE ORDERBOOK MUST and see what is being played there.
2025 ICT Mentorship: Institutional Market Structure Part 22025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 3_Institutional Market Structure Part 2
Greetings Traders!
In Lecture 3 of the 2025 ICT Mentorship, we dive deep into the core principles of market structure, focusing on how institutions truly move the market. Understanding this is essential for precision trading and eliminating emotional biases.
Key Insights from the Lecture
🔹 Distinguishing Minor vs. Strong Swing Points – Learn to differentiate between structural noise and true market shifts.
🔹 Marking Market Structure with Precision – Objectively analyze price action to refine your decision-making process.
🔹 Institutional Market Structure Techniques – Align with smart money to enhance accuracy and consistency.
Why This Matters
Mastering market structure allows traders to anticipate price movement, reducing impulsive trades and reinforcing a disciplined approach. By integrating institutional strategies, we position ourselves for more accurate and confident executions.
Stay focused, keep refining your skills, and let’s continue elevating our trading game.
Institutional Market Structure Part 1:
Enjoy the video and happy trading!
The Architect 🏛️📊
POWER CEMENT PERFECT SETUP FVG + HIGHER HIGH RETEST AND BREAKOUTPower cement fair value gap plus higher high retest at 9.75. also, there was an accumulation box on the higher time frame. the liquidity was resting in the higher high retest in the fair value gap. the stock absorbed all the liquidity at 9.75 and gave a breakout at 10.30, rallying quickly 8 percent in 2-3 hours. that’s how the smart money and the big institutes play!!
NAS100USD: CPI Volatility & Institutional Continuation Sell-OffGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe that the market remains bearish following a significant CPI news release. This high-impact event resulted in a sharp bearish displacement, reinforcing the ongoing bearish narrative. Yesterday, I shared an analysis predicting this continued bearishness. For those interested, you’ll find that analysis attached at the end of this description for deeper context.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
CPI-Induced Displacement : The CPI release triggered a large downward move, forming a massive single candle that left behind a noticeable inefficiency—a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Liquidity Grab & Fair Valuation: After sell stops were taken, price retraced to fill the FVG, restoring fair valuation. This retracement fully closed the gap, confirming a continuation of bearish order flow.
Premium Price Zone: We are currently in a deep premium price range, which aligns with institutional distribution zones. These areas offer excellent opportunities for confirmation-based sell entries.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Strategy: Look for confirmation at the current premium price level before entering short positions.
Targets: Focus on discount liquidity pools at lower prices, as these are the areas institutions will likely target to take profits.
By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key!
For more context, here’s yesterday’s analysis below.
Happy Trading!
The Architect 🏛📊
NAS100USD: False Breakout & Institutional Sell ModelGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe a recent bullish shift in price action; however, this appears to be a false break of structure rather than a genuine bullish continuation. The market behavior suggests a classic liquidity raid, clearing buy stops before setting the stage for a potential bearish continuation. Let’s break this down in detail.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
1. Liquidity Raid & Displacement:
Price aggressively pushed above the engineered trendline to clear liquidity resting above it. Following this raid, we observed a strong displacement toward the downside, signaling that smart money likely distributed sell orders against the buy stop liquidity.
2. Premium Price Zone:
Price is currently positioned within a deep premium range, a high-probability zone for institutional traders to initiate sell positions. This premium alignment strengthens the case for further bearish movement.
3. Rejection Block as Resistance:
The market is reacting to a rejection block, which serves as a critical institutional resistance zone—the last line of defense for bearish momentum. This reinforces our bearish bias and offers a potential entry area.
TRADING PLAN
1. Entry Strategy:
Wait for confirmation at the rejection block to ensure a high-probability entry.
Focus on short opportunities in line with institutional order flow.
2. Target Zones:
Aim for discount liquidity pools resting at lower levels. These areas are prime targets for institutional traders to offload positions and take profits.
Conclusion:
By recognizing the false break of structure and understanding the liquidity dynamics at play, we align our strategy with the institutions’ intentions. Patience and precision will be key in capturing this opportunity.
Stay focused and trade smart.
The Architect 🏛️📊
Institutional Market Structure: How to Mark It!2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 2
Video Description:
📈 Unlock the Secrets of Institutional Market Structure!
Hey traders! Welcome to today’s video, where we lay the foundation for mastering how the market truly moves. Understanding market structure is the key to improving your trading precision and analysis.
In this session, we’ll break down the difference between minor swing points and strong swing points—a crucial distinction for objective and accurate structure analysis. You’ll learn how to mark market structure properly, keeping emotions in check and aligning with solid trading psychology.
🎯 What You’ll Gain:
✅ Identify market structure like a pro
✅ Enhance your objectivity and reduce impulsive decisions
✅ Master institutional techniques for improved accuracy
If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level and build a strong foundation, hit play and let’s dive in!
💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more game-changing insights. Share your thoughts below—I’d love to hear how this helps your trading journey!
Enjoy the video and happy trading!
The Architect 🏛️📊
Foundations of Mastery: 2025 Mentorship Begins!📢 Welcome to the 2025 Mentorship Program!
Greetings, Traders!
This is the first video of the 2025 Mentorship Program, where I’ll be releasing content frequently, diving deep into ICT concepts, and most importantly, developing structured models around them. My goal is to help you gain a deeper understanding of the market and refine your approach to trading.
Before we get started, I want to take a moment to speak to you directly.
💭 No matter where you are in your trading journey, I pray that you achieve—and even surpass—your goals this year.
📈 If you’re striving for consistency and discipline, may you reach new heights.
💡 If you’ve already found success, may you retain and refine your craft—because growth never stops.
🎯 If you’re just starting out, I pray you develop patience, discipline, and above all, accountability—because true progress comes when we own our failures and learn from them.
🔥 If you’ve been trading for years but still struggle with consistency, do not give up. The greatest adversity comes when you’re closest to success. Stay disciplined, stay dedicated, and keep pushing forward.
Above all, let this be a year where we grow together—not just as traders, but as individuals. May we foster humility, respect, and a learning environment where both experienced and new traders can share knowledge and thrive.
🙏 I pray over these things in the name of Jesus. Amen.
Let's have a great year!
The_Architect
NAS100USD: Structural Weakness Points to Bearish BlueprintGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis, although NAS100USD maintains a bullish stance, there are signs of potential bearish momentum that may align with minor objectives.
Key Observations:
1. Rejection Block Resistance
Price action is currently held back by a rejection block, signaling a struggle to achieve higher highs. This resistance suggests weakness in upward momentum and the possibility of a shift.
2. Engineered Trendline Liquidity
A trendline liquidity pool has formed below the current price level. With the rejection block preventing further upside, it’s likely that institutions will target this liquidity as the next objective.
Strategy:
By recognizing the structural constraints and liquidity targets, we can prepare for potential bearish moves. The key will be observing confirmation of downward momentum before executing trades.
Let me know your thoughts or share insights in the comments. Let’s refine our strategies together!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NAS100USD: Anticipating Temporary Bearish Order Flow?Greetings Traders,
Today's analysis highlights significant bullish momentum in NAS100USD, driven by the heavy volatility following the CPI news release. Despite the bullish institutional order flow, there is potential for temporary bearish order flow. This could either serve as a brief retracement to meet specific objectives before continuing the bullish trend or, possibly, a full reversal of price action. While we must wait for further market confirmation, current conditions provide an opportunity to target the sell stop objectives highlighted on the chart.
Key Observations and Confluences:
1. Institutional Price Delivery Insight:
At present, price is positioned in a premium zone and has recently taken out Engineered Resistance Liquidity, where premium buy stops reside. Institutions often use this liquidity to pair orders by selling against these buy stops.
Institutions, having sold at a premium, will aim to buy back positions at a discount (a process associated with profit-taking). Therefore, we anticipate price to move towards liquidity pools at lower discount levels.
2. Trendline Liquidity:
The chart also reveals engineered trendline liquidity, a classic setup where retail traders buy along the trendline, leaving their stop losses below. Institutions view these stop losses as sell stops, representing willing sellers against whom they can close their buy positions. This makes these lows prime targets for institutional activity.
The current evidence provides a strong foundation to anticipate bearish price action towards these liquidity pools, offering a strategic opportunity to align with the institutional narrative.
If you have any insights, questions, or additional analysis, feel free to share them in the comments below. Let's collaborate and grow together as traders.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NAS100USD: Is a Reversal Brewing in Bearish Territory?Greetings Traders!
Today’s analysis highlights a fascinating setup on NAS100USD. While the market remains bearish overall, there are compelling signs suggesting a potential reversal. This could either lead to a minor retracement or evolve into a stronger, extended bullish trend. As always, we let the market confirm its intentions.
Current Market Outlook:
Price is sitting at heavy discount levels, having swept discount sell stops. This movement hints at the possibility of smart money entering buy orders against willing sellers. Remember, the narrative here is simple: buy in discount prices, sell in premium prices.
Key Confluences:
Rejection Block Support: Price is strongly rejecting a key rejection block, establishing a robust institutional support zone.
Discount Level Alignment: Current levels are ideal for buying opportunities, provided confirmation aligns with the broader market narrative.
Trading Strategy:
I am closely watching for confirmation entries at these levels, with the first target being the premium buy stops above the 50% Fibonacci level (fair value). This zone offers an excellent area for profit-taking and aligns with institutional order flow.
Let’s Collaborate!
Have insights, questions, or analysis? Share them in the comments below. Together, we can dissect the market and make informed decisions!
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
Bitcoin is not looking that well... check out this last candlesBitcoin has indeed broken out of the ascending wedge as we had analyzed; however, I’m quite concerned about the very prominent indecision candle that formed during the breakout. This has me a bit worried.
If we look at the last two days, they’ve also been indecisive candles. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a Bitcoin correction is imminent, but if the price starts losing momentum after several days of sideways movement with wick-heavy candles, it doesn’t paint a very positive picture for the days ahead.
Anything can happen—Bitcoin’s volatility is very high, and the crypto market is currently very bullish. For now, it’s just a matter of waiting to see Bitcoin’s next move and how it reacts.
Best regards!
NAS100USD: Is Bullish Momentum Only Temporary?Greetings, Traders!
In today’s analysis, NAS100USD is exhibiting bullish institutional order flow, presenting an opportunity to align with the current market narrative.
Key Observations
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price has retraced into an FVG, providing a critical area of interest for support.
Bullish Order Block: Situated below the FVG, this structure enhances the zone’s strength as an institutional support area.
Strategy
Look for confirmation entries at this support zone.
Target: Liquidity pool above, aligning with the bullish flow.
Feel free to share your insights, questions, or analysis in the comments below. Let’s trade and grow together!
Regards,
The_Architect
NAS100USD: Is Bearish Control Taking Over?Greetings Traders!
While NAS100USD remains bullish, I see signs of a potential bearish shift for several reasons identified on the chart. Most notably, price has been rejecting a Rejection Block, a significant institutional resistance zone. This rejection has resulted in strong downside displacement, signaling that institutional interest may now lean bearish.
Retail vs. Institutional Resistance
Institutional Resistance:
Price has retraced into heavy premium levels, ideal for selling opportunities (sell in premium, buy in discount). A key difference with institutional resistance lies in its foundation on Rejection Blocks. These order blocks, formed at market turning points, are characterized by large wicks relative to candle closures. They indicate that institutions or smart money entered substantial sell orders, giving confidence to anticipate bearish price action.
Retail Resistance:
In contrast, retail resistance often serves as engineered liquidity. Here, banks and institutions create the illusion of a resistance zone to entice retail traders into taking trades. These zones, strategically placed at premium levels, enable institutions to sell against retail positions. Understanding this manipulation is critical for aligning with institutional order flow.
Trading Plan
Confirmation Zone:
Monitor price action at the Rejection Block and premium levels for bearish confirmation.
Targets:
Fair Value: The 50% retracement of the leg.
Liquidity Pool: The downside liquidity resting below current levels.
Discussion and Insights
If you have questions, analysis, or insights, feel free to share them in the comment section. Let’s collaborate, learn, and grow as traders!
Kind regards,
The_Architect
PALANTIR ON AN INCREDIBLE BULLRUN ! BUT...
But be careful—this does not justify the price at all. Although Palantir has very solid numbers in its balance sheet, this does not justify a valuation at such an overvalued price could be very dangerous !
We must consider that markets in general are bullish, and the results of the latest report recently showed that it remains a very solid company in terms of sales. However, its earnings numbers are average—they meet analysts’ expectations, but by a very narrow margin. Historically, this has been the case in past reports as well.
Now, let’s get back to the technical analysis of Palantir.
After its report, it managed to break through that institutional zone that marked its peak 3 years ago (2021). After bouncing off the imbalance for a second time, Palantir showed a lot of strength and reached new highs.
From here on, we just need to wait for a pullback soon to start analyzing a possible support level.
Right now, Palantir is in no man’s land, which makes it a bit difficult to predict its next move. The only thing we can do here is to follow its movement candle by candle, staying alert to wicks and immediate zones where it might pull back.
Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE!"
Dollar DXY - Bullish ContinuationDollar Index / DXY Analysis :
-
Fridays NFP event dropped price and finished this week with signs of reversal to the upside.
Following price action we see a nice 4Hour Break Of Structure, indicating buying pressure.
This following week we will look for any retracements (Higher Low) to come back into our impulsive NFP candle (point of interest) and look for confirmations to take it higher and close above previous high.