AUDUSD Intraday Buy Trend obviously bullish. Looking for this to potentially complete the wave.
Entry is at 50% of the institutional candle on the H1 timeframe/bottom of imbalance on m30/m15. Also at 61.8% on the fibonacci.
About a 5:1 risk to reward ratio.
Expecting a possible correction near the 0.70440 level, followed by another potentially massive bull run.
Institutional_trading
Learn to discern institutional demand levels (Example)Is it true that the Forex Market is manipulated and controlled by a handful of banks and market makers? If so, how can we identify when they manipulate the forex markets and is it something that requires access to sophisticated tools and secret contacts? Well, let’s begin by getting a few facts straight. Firstly it is true that the forex markets are manipulated and while you don’t need any sophisticated tools or secret contacts to understand how this happens, identifying when it happens is not easy for the majority of retails traders.
What most traders fail to appreciate is what the financial markets truly are and how to trade forex properly. The Forex markets is a place where buyers and sellers come together facilitated by brokers and market makers who look to profit by making a commission for each transaction. Just like any other market, buyers and sellers can only come together if there is a middleman facilitating the transaction. This middleman in the case of Forex is the market maker, and their job is simply to match buy and sell orders for the best price possible and earn the most commission that they can on each transaction.
How forex works – Buyer & Seller Counterparties
Every trade that is executed in the forex markets has to have a buyer and seller and when this takes place then we have a trade. This normally happens in a fraction of a second electronically but in essence, each time you enter a buy trade you are being matched with someone who is happy to enter a sell position and take the opposite side of your trade. If this doesn’t happen then there wouldn’t be a trade. Why is this so important? Because it highlights the problems that large banks have which small traders don’t. Any retail trader is able to place whatever position size they wish into the market without ever fearing slippage or bad fill. Granted slippage may take place during high impact news items such as central bank announcements but on the whole, most of the executed trades are done instantaneously.
Now if you’re a retail trader trading 1 standard Lot then you won’t have any problems with being filled at the price you want. Imagine you’re trading 100 Lots or 500 Lots or 1000 lots, these are larger positions to put into the market at any one time and it’s much more difficult to find someone to take the other side of the trade at the exact price and the exact time that you want and therefore might not be filled at a great price. Well, what could you do in such a situation? You have one of three options:
Option 1:
You could either bite the bullet and get executed at whatever price you are able to get, the only problem here is that you won’t be getting the best price possible for your trade which eats into your profits.
Option 2:
You could wait for the price to get to the price level you want so that you get the best execution possible and buy or sell at a much more favorable price – this is great but what if the price doesn’t get to the level you want for you to execute your trade? You will either be forced to walk away without making a trade or be forced to take whatever price you can get if doing the trade is absolutely essential
Option 3:
You force the price to get to the level at which you want to transact by cleverly manipulating other smaller traders to push the market in the direction you want it to go. Once you get the price to the level you want then you can carry out your transaction. How can you do this? By taking massive positions and exercising your muscle. This is similar to when large companies and conglomerates bully smaller businesses out of the market through aggressive competition.
Best Options…
Which option do market makers and those with large orders take? Option 3. This is how manipulation works in simplicity. The big players who have the money to move the market in the direction they want, do so on a regular basis. What’s more, they have no option but to do this because unless they can manipulate the market then they won’t be able to execute their large orders. Think about it – what causes the price to move up? An imbalance of buy and sell orders such that there are more buy orders than sell orders which means there is more demand for that particular currency pair than there is supply. Conversely, what causes the price to fall – a larger build up of sell orders than buy orders such that supply outstrips demand thereby resulting in price falling. Now if a market maker comes into the market with a massive order to buy a currency, what will happen to the price? It will start to rise. This means that the market maker is bidding the price higher and so forcing himself to keep buying at higher and higher prices until their order is filled. This hardly sounds attractive or even smart for that matter as the market maker is in the business of maximizing their profits.
So what is the alternative?
The only alternative is to buy or sell in a hidden way without alerting all the other traders as to what is really happening. How does this take place? By buying into selling pressure or selling into buying pressure. In other words, what a market maker will do is do the opposite of what they intend to do in order to push the price to their desired level. What is a market maker? It is a financial intermediary set up with the sole purpose of matching buyers and sellers together to make a commission in the process. So let’s say a large European conglomerate wants to buy out a US company for $10 Billion. It can’t just go to a money exchange bureau or the bank to change that amount of money. Most likely it will go to a currency broker or a large bank who will complete the transaction by going into the money markets via their brokerage arm.
Once the market maker receives the order for the transaction, their job is to convert the conglomerate’s money from Euro’s into USD. They will, therefore, be trading the EUR/USD pair and selling Euro’s and buying USD. Since this transaction of selling Euros and buying USD happens instantaneously, what the market maker needs to do is get the highest exchange rate they can for Euros to USD. The way they do this is very important as it affects the amount of commission they stand to make. In this example, it’s in the market maker’s interest to achieve the highest interest rate they can so they do this by driving the exchange rate higher first and then starting to sell the euros against this higher price. They continue to sell just as everyone else is fooled into thinking that price is going to continue higher until eventually they sell all the euros and convert into USD and complete the transaction. What happens now is that since the selling pressure has become stronger than the buying pressure, price starts to fall rapidly and everyone is left scrambling to get out of the trade once they find out that they are wrong. The reason people are left scrambling is that as a result of giving a false signal of the market starting to move up, the market maker manages to entice other traders to start buying heavily. Once the other traders find out that they were wrong in their assessment of market direction, then the main focus becomes to get out of their positions quickly. This is what we call the trap and it happens on a weekly basis in the Forex market.
XAU LONG IDEAPotential reaction off of an institutional play with the yellow zone highlighted, we may see this move happen for multiple reasons such as also being in my kill zone area which is between 62%-88%.
This trade may happen before market closes however most likely next week let keep close eyes on it and if you see an opening take it.
This is a nice 3:1 ratio trade that can pay more than it can hurt, always take partials out of your trade along the way, especially if you are new to the market and get into moments where you question yourself if you should close your trade or not,.. thats when you know you SHOULD be taking partials and most certainly moving your stop loss into profit accordingly .
The link in my bio i explain more about how i view the market for its opportunities.
Learn-Interact-Trade
Lit Capital
EurAud Sell Opportunity I believe EurAud will drop simply because it’s formed a lower low and a lower high on the daily timeframe, hence a bearish structure.
The reasoning behind my entry, is because there was a liquidity capture with that institutional candle (highlighted yellow candle), clearing equal highs (highlighted red ish).
The specific entries are at the body and 50% of that institutional daily candle where the banks will mitigate their positions, which also aligns within my Fibonacci kill zone.
14.08.2019 - UJ UPDATE: SESSION RANGE VOLUME PROFILE ANALYSISHello and welcome to my channel
4h timeframe
Divergences in price, momentum and volume = Bullish signal
Orders around 109 needs to be filled and prices will most likely be pulled towards 109,200.
All the signs of the reversal is already revealing.
Make sure to comment or like if you enjoy the analysis and let me know if you have any questions.
God bless you and happy trading
Daytrading Leverage Strategy for Bigger Accounts on Forex[R:R 3]Hello everyone,
Many of you wonder how it feels to trade bigger accounts, and keeping it short: stop thinking punctual.
Whenever you think I'm buying HERE and getting out exactly THERE. Forget it, never again.
There's simply not enough volume for your positions - so what you do?
You break it up and you start thinking the final average price. You stop thinking on static numbers and you start considering regions for entry and exit.
Larger institutions take WEEKS to close their positions, so I think you get my groove here. It's hard to think tops and bottoms when you need to buy and enter all over the place - the art of market making(but that's a whole other story).
So when I started struggling with such a problem, all my strategies were basically at their maximum capital capacity. The main symptom was that my entry limit orders were being filled partially all the time.
Since I'm a very thrill guy when it comes down to the strategies I like to have every single step very well written before I start opening positions. Not only entry and exit points but also position sizing are crucial for me.
The solution was to break my position in smaller positions that I called ACU's.
Let's say we have a 10% ACU, that means that each ACU that I buy that is equivalent of 1/10 of the total position size I initially wanted.
The second step was changing my algorithms to things that triggered more often across a zone and not super price and solid signals that trigger only once.
So now I'm buying a little bit here and there, with the goal of having a better final average price.
Another secret factor for success here is being quick on or fingers or if you're tech savvy enough getting an execution bot for you.
Which means you can further break your ACU's across a buying zone.
Let's say your buy-zone goes from 1 to 2, you will spread your ACU close to what I'll explain next.
Imagine something around 10% of 10% of your total position size, yes only 1% of total
Because you will break your ACU in 10 smaller positions across the 1~2 range, similar to this
Buy 10% ACU at 1
Buy 10% ACU at 1.1
Buy 10% ACU at 1.2
...
Buy 10% ACU at 2
I know it sucks and it takes time, but the more you break your position is better and I'll tell you why. BECAUSE IT GUARANTEES YOU THE BEST POSSIBLE ENTRY PRICE.
The price hardly ever go all the way down to the bottom of the range and if does your avg price will be 1.5
But let's work with MOST of the times, that the lowest it goes on your buy-zone is around 1.3-1.7
It will always allow you to catch the best avg entry price, I know some of your limit orders won't be filled but this makes the risk a lot smaller for you, so be patient and master your greed.
This also allows the usage of leverage since operating like this makes you REALLY hard to get liquidated, the tools and the settings I used on Spectro M2 are Xconf on aggressive mode(arrows above/under candles), Spectro Warnings on Moderate(gray warnings), Adaptative Fibonacci Levels( pivot levels) & Scalper Exhaust Reversal Tool(blue background).
Also to make the stop-loss rules clear:
If the price just touched #1 Target - Do nothing
If the price just touched #2 Target - Move up one level
If the price just touched #3 Target - Move up SL to #1 target
If the price just touched #4 Target - Move up SL to #2 target if you think there will be a break-out otherwise close your position
Let me know if you have any doubts!
MELI: Trading Range Technical Pattern Reveals Large LotsThe outline in red shows the trading range pattern for MELI stock on the daily time frame. The highs of this range are remarkably level for a trading range. The extreme low rebound is lower than prior range lows. The compression of price before the gap up is a particularly important pattern to watch for in a trading range market condition, to anticipate a breakout. Use volume oscillators along with candlestick patterns to identify the underlying hidden large lot activity.
MO being tested by FDA fears and Institutional SellingIf any stock can do a fakeout, it's Altria. We've seen intense selling to where the RSI is no good. FDA pressure and fears of menthol bans accelerated the selling momentum. We broke down through the channel, furthering bear strength and then through a strong support slope. Yearly bottom of April has held. I'm seeing a bear flag, yet overlapped with a semblance of a bull flag on smaller timeframes. Until buyers can settle above 57 at a close, today could be just a small reprieve in the overall drop. Hoping for bull momentum to return and the downward slope to prove as support. February's Support slope will likely prove as strong resistance in the future. 56.34 area as current immediate resistance... A strong upward break through 57.10-57.33 will be important to reclaim trading zones.
Bitcoin Price slowly risingI'm beginning to think the game is rigged.
As of this writing , the price of Bitcoin has rebounded somewhat from it's low below 5400. There has been a great deal of talk lately about the integration of Institutions , Banks , and Investment firms. Perhaps this is the entry point they wanted , and everything goes up from here , with bitcoin becoming as digital gold and fulfilling Mike Novogratz absurd prediction for q4 2018 , or perhaps Bitcoin will visit former bitcoin cash territory, leaving us to hope that digital currency really is the future , and that Bitcoin isn't going to fade away.
With the asian session soon to begin , I think we can all agree that it will be a long night after a very long , disappointing day. I very much hope that this evenings session doesn't tear everything apart. (More)
Caveat emptor
(ouch)
HEXO Cannabis Investing - The dip b4 big money...still dippingSo Cannabis investors, HEXO is at the a dip and 786 fib retracement. Is this the dip before a November federal bill allowing legalization state by state, or will it go near full retracement?
High 9.29, current 5.70, full retracement 3.98.
Canopy Growth is 618 fib retracement. The better the stock the lower the dip. I'm using weekly charts and than switching to 1 day and 4 hour charts for potential limit entries.
Other favorites are Tilray (TLRY), GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) and CBD suppliers CVSI and CBDS.
We're getting hammered from credit debt and waiting for the final hammer to drop.
TSX:HEXO OTC:HYYDF
CGC CRON NASDAQ:TLRY NASDAQ:GWPH OTC:CVSI OTC:CBDS
Pick & shovel options:
OTC:BLOZF THC Test devices...riskiest play in my view.
OTC:KSHB Packaging, labels, and extraction products
NYSE:SMG Hydroponics, equipment, fertilizers
NYSE:IIPR REIT asset leasing, property
OTC:MNTR Financing, asset leasing, property