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AMZN Joins the Dow at an Unusual PhaseThis hugely influential company should have been on the Dow 10 years ago. Listing as a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average usually occurs when a company is about to enter a Market Saturation to Market Decline Phase. However, such is not the case with $NASDAQ:AMZN. It's quite the opposite. Its fairly new CEO, who was the CEO of AWS, the division of AMZN known for its powerful and totally dominant PaaS cloud technology, has extensive experience in exactly what AMZN needs right now: front running new technologies and driving more new technologies to market introduction faster. The challenge to be #1 in the use of Integrated Artificial Intelligence and other new technologies in the realm of Cloud Technology is on. Who will win depends on the CEO. Never underestimate the importance of the right CEO for the current market conditions. The chart of AMZN stock implies a consolidation or platform may develop during the month and a half between earnings seasons. These patterns tend to form due to value-oriented quiet accumulation by the largest institutions while the rest of the market pulls back from buying or sells.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
Understanding the Role of HFTs and Dark Pools for Day TradingNASDAQ:TSLA reports on Wednesday of this week, October 18th. Last quarter, it had a gap down on its earnings news based on Year over Year comparisons which triggered High Frequency Trading (HFTs) to gap the stock down. Quarter over Quarter, however, NASDAQ:TSLA has shown consistent growth this year. The problem with determining if the HFT gaps are likely to gap down or up on the next earnings report is the very low Percentage of Shares Held by Giant Buy-Side Institutions (PSHI). TSLA’s CEO has lost the necessary confidence of the largest Buy-Side Institutions in the world. So it's institutional interest is extremely low for such an important US company. The Buy-Side Institutions want the Board of Directors to replace Musk with someone who is more focused on TSLA to help it grow. The PSHI is likely to remain low until a new CEO is chosen. The highest the PSHI has ever been was in July 2020 when it reached a high of 71%. It dropped to a low of 43% in November of 2021 and the stock has been sideways with very low PSHI ever since. It is very rare to see such low PSHI in a young new technology company with such high growth potential. With less support from largest most influential institutions, the HFTs, which use retail news as one of their 6 primary algorithm triggers for automated orders as Maker/Takers, often gap a stock down on earnings news that was actually not negative. Smaller Fund Managers, who have a special SEC classification with lower reporting requirements, often have VWAP automated orders trigger on high volume surges. This is often mistaken by smaller funds and retail investors or traders as “Dark Pool high volume activity,” when it is not. High PSHI creates a natural liquidity draw and thus more momentum and speculative price action. This is missing much of the time for NASDAQ:TSLA stock price movement. The current sideways trend has existed since 2021, best seen on a Weekly Chart. The dimensions of the sideways trend and the irregularity of the price range determines whether the sideways trend is a Long Term Wide Trading Range, a Short Term Trading Range, a Wide Sideways Trend, or a Platform-Building Sideways Trend. This is a Long Term Trading Range due to the inconsistent highs and lows. This is common in a stock that has PSHI below 60%. On a Daily Chart, the fundamentals currently are within the rectangular shape outlined below. This area of price can be problematic for retail day traders as there are always portfolio adjustments going on by the Buy-Side Institutions who have ETFs and Index funds with TSLA as a component. When the stock drops below that Buy Zone range, it quickly reverses and runs up into the lows of that fundamental range. This becomes a price range where there is conflict between retail day traders trying to trade on news and the Buy-Side Institutions accumulating inventory shares of TSLA for the Indexes or ETF Trust accounts that must maintain a value close to the ETF or index value upon which that ETF is based. What happens intraday is a very choppy and indecisive price action up and down that causes whipsaw losses for day trading. In order to successfully day-trade TSLA, these factors must be understood to use to one's advantage. This requires an understanding of how to identify a Dark Pool Sell Zone or a Dark Pool Buy Zone within the daily charts. It also requires an understanding of how HFTs trigger and how VWAP orders often cause whipsaw action as well. Remember that Dark Pool data is not available during the trading day. That data is on Over-the-Counter Alternative Transaction Systems. Those orders are filled off the exchanges and are not transmitted to the National Clearing Houses until after the market closes. Hence, ALL retail day traders are trading against an invisible entity whose orders they can’t see even on Level 2 screens. The art of day trading in harmony with Dark Pool activity requires what I call "Relational Technical Analysis."
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NASDAQ:TSLA
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
10
BTCUSD: Update, CME is the driving force here...I found the culprit of my confusion regarding the last upswing in $BTCUSD, the spot chart has become unreliable compared to the CME futures chart, at least when it comes to Time@Mode analysis. Finer details of how weekly bar ranges look, impact the analysis outcome. I missed a signal indicating that we could go long, like 4 weeks ago, and given sentiment didn't think it made sense to get a signal targeting new all time highs either. In the CME chart we see a clearly expired monthly trend, and a clean weekly down swing which has panned out. As well as a new weekly upswing currently taking place. I suspect the outcome of regulatory uncertainty will be that price remains sideways/down and price doesn't make new highs for a long time. Regulations won't come into play after 2023, so perhaps a bit before that, the market will move out of this sideways state. It is unclear when we will have more clarity regarding the final decision in the infrastructure bill, but market participants will be monitoring it closely. I think my main long term view is correct, that a long term trend ended, and now we either go sideways or down for a similar amount of time as previous bear markets, roughly until April 2022, this is also in line with expectations from monthly T@M signals in the CME chart here presented. As for the daily and weekly uptrend, there is a big resistance cluster above, and a weekly level that should hold, around 50k. I don't think price can jump over that barrier easily. Daily trend expires by Friday, weekly expires in two more Fridays after. Let's keep an eye on developments here, I anticipate this market will be driven by institutional portfolio managers rebalancing, which likely will contribute to price being stuck in a sideways range until there is regulatory clarity in the future. This will also help sentiment cool down, as it is I can't fathom price going into a steady uptrend and reaching 80-100k or whatever. I hope you feel as relieved as me, after figuring out this puzzle. Take it easy, we will have a ton of time to analyze and think about this market's trend. Price won't deviate far, specially not up, I am pretty sure of that now. Even more so than before. We can trade the daily signals as they form, up and down, but definitely don't fomo in and buy all in and expect unreasonable moves (same can be said for shorting, trade small or don't trade). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CME:BTC1!
by IvanLabrie
14
DoorDash: The Stock that Hedge Funds LoveIn this post, I'll be taking a fundamental and technical approach to DoorDash ($DASH), an American delivery & takeout platform. For more information on the company since its IPO, make sure to check out the post I uploaded in Dec. 2020 by clicking the chart below. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. Fundamentals - DoorDash has shown tremendous growth compared to its counterparts like GrubHub and UberEats, during the Covid pandemic. - In terms of meal delivery shares, DoorDash currently covers 57%. - Dashers - the deliverymen on DoorDash - are gig workers, but the Biden administration has signaled that they should be classified as employees - This would induce additional costs, and with DoorDash still not being a profitable company yet, this could negatively impact the stock's price. - While this company is still not profitable, their Q2 financials demonstrate great growth trajectory - Their increase in revenue isn't amazing, but the absolute value is quite high. - Their Gross Order Value (GOV) has been growing for 5 consecutive quarters. Technical Analysis - The chart demonstrates that the stock is very volatile. - But ever since we tested the IPO price support in May, we have been in an uptrend, forming higher lows and higher highs. - The price is trading above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Ribbon - A break and close above $214 could lead this stock to retest its all time highs at $256 Institutional Investors - SoftBank holds the most stocks, owning 12.89% of the company (43.5m shares) - The runner up on the list is Sequoia Capital, with 11.66% - Tiger Global Management holds 3.23%, and Morgan Stanley Investment Management holds 3.13% - Among known hedge fund managers as well, the top holders on the list (by order) are: - Chase Coleman (Tiger Global Management) - Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies) - Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) - Ken Griffin (Citadel) Conclusion DoorDash is a very interesting company with a business model proven successful by other companies overseas. It would be important to see the continuation in growth momentum and the company turning profitable in the next few years. Especially with a lot of institutional interest, this stock could definitely be added to your watchlist. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
DLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
2