INTC
BULLISH INTEL $INTC - Nothing but good newsOkay hear me out.
seekingalpha.com
Today they released this flagship chip. We all know the future is in microchips based on the $130 billion TSM pledged to spend, plus they're opening a plant in Arizona AND so is Intel . WTF is going on in Arizona??!??!?!
Look at the earnings. Last quarter they blew the estimate out the water. And look at the next earning date. WHAT! they're going to kill it.
Robots, ai, computers, microchips are the future. Intel, AMD , TSM all the way to the moon baby.
flag formation in AMDBullish flag formed in AMD
As Intel rumors were confirmed, AMD took a beating. But these rumors are non-threatening, at least in the short-term. Intel has yet to finish their 7nm chip whereas AMD is already working on their 5nm chip. AMD is way ahead of the game, more involved with gaming than intel because of their additional console exposure. Intel's new Fab's won't be fully operational/have an effect on financials until 2023 or 2024.
In the meantime, AMD is crushing it. AMD may bounce here while the reality of the timeline sets in and causes INTC to sell-off after an incredible YTD run based on whispers of their plans.
AMD might bounce off the flag line or the resistance line (doubtful it breaks resistance) and mimic its recent impulse. "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes". If it breaks the flag trendline the next support is at the $48 level; that scenario is highly unlikely.
IXIC Testing Resistance/Weekly IdeasIt looks like the IXIC might be making itself a new downward trend. Possible bearish flag after the initial selloff over the last few weeks. This week I will be looking for the IXIC to break up through the downward trend line and then the 13610 resistance line. If it fails the trend line, I think we will have more of a gradual downward trend, but if it fails 13610 and double tops, that could mean a large fast movement downward. This time it may drag the SPX/DIA down with it.
On the downside we have some protection at 12610. Whether we do or don't test either resistance level, if it finds support here, this could indicate a strong bullish reversal. However I think that to be unlikely given the valuation of the market today and the necessity of a correction to maintain reasonable valuations in the tech sector. Unfortunately, the rest of the market will probably get caught in the crossfire.
I am also watching the SPX for a probable normal dip along its trading trendline. Looking for some possible short plays there.
Looking for a possible bear PCS on INTC this week as it tests previous resistance line for support in rising wedge pattern...
Another possible bear PCS on AGI this week or early next as it shows a bearish flag in an overall downward trend while showing overbought on the Stoch. Will probably look for a MACD crossover before entering into the position. This will be especially effective if it tests and fails the downward trendline this or next week.
Also looking for entry on a PCS for BK after failing $47 and a bearish crossover in the Stoch and one possibly forming on the MACD.
Looking for a similar play on ED after possibly failing resistance for 3rd time while showing overbought in Stoch with a bearish crossover.
Everything of course seems to be dependent on the TNX so keep an eye out for more panic selling with rising rates.
INTC-RM (MOEX) - Be CarefullGreetings
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INTC-RM (MOEX) - Be Carefull
Cup and handle in Intel Potential gain:10%
Reward/Risk:2.9
Timeframe: 1-2 wks
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INTC: looking for a breakout, $70 could be nextGreat chart here for INTC - bouncing off nicely from the $60 level and breaking smoothly (and with strong momentum as shown by the UTO) thru the supply/demand "balance line" at $61.5 ..
we hope to see a continuation of the move up - to be confirmed by a breakout of resistance at $63.5 - maybe today or tomorrow..
Price projection: this was a measured move of $16 from the low set in late Jan of $54 = a short term target of $70 if that move materializes
let's keep watching this chart ... and see if these projections hold.
Faith and Passion: INTCHave you ever been at a party and talked to a very intelligent person about their specific field of expertise? Those conversation can get very long and hard to follow...
Last night I had such an opportunity to speak with a software developer that knew a lot about Intel's chip architecture. He was incredibly passionate about NASDAQ:INTC and its future product releases. I asked him if he thought they would reclaim their crown as the top chip manufacturer and after a lengthy explanation of all the different ultraviolet laser chip making methods the answer was "Yes!" Independent of the recent bullish news of the CEO leaving I started a stake in the company.
OPENING: INTC APRIL 16TH 37.5/FEBRUARY 19TH 45 MONIED LCD**Long Call Diagonal
... for a 6.83 debit.
Notes: The smaller account, skip month long call diagonal referenced in my INTC (IRA) Post (See Below). Buying the back month 90, selling the front month monied 75.
Metrics:
Max Profit: .67
Max Loss: 6.83
ROC at Max: 9.8%/70.1% annualized.
Break Even: 44.33
Delta/Theta: 17.45/1.4
OPENING (IRA): INTC FEBRUARY 19TH 42.5 SHORT PUT... for a .70/contract credit.
Notes: As with my BA trade (See Post Below), targeting some options highly liquid single name for premium selling. Here, it's the beaten-down Intel, with the short put lining up nicely below support. 30-day at 44.8%, expiry-specific at 41.6%. I generally like to sell premium in single name at >50% implied, but occasionally settle for less when there's nothing better "at the top of the board," so to speak.
One of my New Year's resolutions is to not be so lazy with these plays, so compared monied covered call setups with delta metrics similar to those of going naked short put, the advantages and/or disadvantages of going with a particular expiry over just defaulting to the monthly, and whether something like a long call vertical or long call diagonal would make any sense here. I used to do these comparison and contrasts much more often, but it takes some additional time, but thought I'd set out the basic process of deciding what setup to go with here, even though I'm probably not going to do that with each and every trade I take.
COVERED CALL VERSUS NAKED SHORT
The February 19th 42.5 covered call would have a max profit of .60 currently with a break even of 41.90; the 45 monied, 1.14, with a break even of 43.84. For contrast, the 42.5 naked has a 41.80 break even, so you get a smidge (.10) more out of going naked versus going with the 42.5 monied. The 45 monied, with a 2.6% ROC at max, has a better return, but a break even that is nearly $2 higher than both the 42.5 monied and the 42.5 short put, so the trade-off there is less room to be wrong and therefore a higher return on capital. Both of these types of plays, however, have high buying power requirements, particularly in a cash secured environment, with the cash secured naked short put costing 41.80 to put on, with its primary advantage being ease of trade of management.
CHOICE OF EXPIRY
The other thing I've tended to be lazy with is choice of expiry. Here, there may be an advantage to "shopping" for the highest implied expiry, which -- in this case -- isn't the February 19th monthly; it's the expiry nearest Intel's earnings announcement, which is the January 22nd weekly with an expiry-specific implied of 47.1%. To get any short put to line up nicely with that support around 44, you're going to have to sell something like the 17 delta 44, which is paying around .52 right now for 23 days' of "work." On an annualized basis, you're probably going to get more bang for your buck out of going with the January 22nd versus going with the February monthly, which is more than twice as long in duration. The January 22nd 44's ROC%-age is 1.12% at max; 17.8% annualized while the February 19th 42.5 is 1.67% ROC at max, 12.0% annualized. Again, however, the trade-off is less room to be wrong versus getting in and out of these plays rather quickly to maximize annualized return on capital.
LONG CALL VERTICAL/LONG CALL DIAGONAL
When working with smaller accounts, long call diagonals have been one of my favorite plays to go with when I can't or don't want to afford a covered call or a naked short put, but want to do something synthetically that mimics a covered call. Given where Intel is at currently, I think it would set up nicely for either a one-off long call vertical or diagonal. Here's a couple plays with similar delta metrics to going with a naked short put with a delta value of between 16 (2 x the expected move) and something more aggressive, like a 30 delta.
The first example is the February 19th 37.5/45 long call vertical with a delta metric of around 20. A 7 1/2 wide, it would cost around 6.55 to put on, with a max profit metric of .95 and a 44.05 break even with a 14.50% ROC at max -- a whopping 103.8% annualized. What's not to like? The primary disadvantage is that one generally doesn't "manage" one-off debit spreads -- they either work fantastically or you take them off for a loss (e.g., 2 x max profit). Naturally, you can go with something far less aggressive than a monied, but one of your goals here should be taking profits relatively quickly, churning in and out of plays to maximize return on capital, rather than sitting out endlessly in an underlying without locking realized gains in on a regular basis.
The second, a diagonal, where you buy a high delta, longer-dated back month call and sell a shorter duration call, working it like a covered call. My general preference is to go at least "skip month" in duration for the back month, so I'd probably buy the April 16th 37.5 (90 delta) and sell the February 19th 74 delta 45, yielding a net delta metric of around 18. As with the static long call vertical, it's a 7.5 wide, but going longer duration with the back month costs a little more. Here, the whole setup costs 6.78 to put on, with max profit being the difference between the width of the diagonal (7.5) and what it cost to put on (6.78) or .72, an ROC%-age of 10.6% at max, 75.9% annualized. The advantage here is that you have opportunities to roll the short call to reduce cost basis further and therefore increase your ROC, but have a timer of sorts when you will have to exit the play, win or lose, at April expiry.
Here, I'm taking the "ease of trade management" route,* but will consider doing more monied short call verticals and/or diagonals going forward, particularly in some of the smaller accounts I'm working.
* -- To be completely honest, I hit click and send and got a fill before doing this post, but may do a separate play in one of the smaller accounts I'm working.