MORE BULLISH: Ethereum Top & Bottom Price Action Integral BandsAnalog to Bitcoin, the top, mid & bottom price action integral bands (short: PAIBs) can also be defined for Ethereum, which can be used as an indictor for longterm swing trades and/or general market cycle analysis.
Here instead of fitting some curve dependent on time (~ f(t)), we integrate over price action with three custom functionals. Then if those functionals are expanded by +- 5% we get three bands, in blue the top price action integral band, in green the mid price action integral, and in red the bottom price action integral. The bands are calculated in real time, there is no repaint or other manual modification involved. When price reaches the blue band, it is probably time to sell or short. For the bottom band we often have two opportunities to add to spot or leveraged long positions, as these phases are more drawn out. The bottom band has some similarities with the CVDD-model, although it uses completely different data (CVDD uses on-chain tx metrics while here price action data from BLX price index are used), however both models predict the same absolute bottoms. It is easier to implement the PAIBs in TradingView, as on-chain metrics are not as easily available in TV. Lastly the newly added green mid band indicates in which rough market phase we're currently in. Ethereum spent a long time in bearish (or accumulation) regions, and now pushes again near the green band. A flip of the green band would be extremely bullish, with estimated price multipliers up to a potential cycle top higher than in Bitcoin's case.
The current top price indicated by the blue band is roughly $5,200 per ETH.
The current mid band sits at approximately $570 per ETH.
The current bottom band shows a price of around $115 per ETH .
Note: I also added (dashed) estimates for future band development up until the mid of 2022 (by hand), those are not calculated! My personal guess is that ETH will top out somewhere between $10,000 to $20,000 sometime between winter 2021 to summer 2022.
The future looks bullish indeed. Of course this is no financial advice.
Hope you find this helpful! I will talk more about this and other indicators (including updates) in the future.
