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Fed's Hope in 2024 - Their Projection & PlanDuring the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan. So what is the difference between a projection and a plan? And how will the market performance in 2024? Dow Jones Futures & Options E-mini Dow Jones Ticker: YM 1.00 index point = $5.00 Micro E-mini Dow Jones Ticker: MYM 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by konhow
4
✨ MODIFICATION: EURUSD ✨ THE BIG PICTURE (5D)TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TP5 @ 1.2115 (closing ALL Buy Orders) TP4 @ 1.17850 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 1.1250 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 1.1100 (shaving 25%) TP1 @ 1.0933 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 1.0820 ⏳ BLO2 @ 1.0800 ⏳ VIDEO TIMESTAMP: 00:00 ECB News 02:53 Where Do We Go From Here? 03:32 A Noisy Intermediate Time Frame (4H) 04:55 Key Support/Resistance Levels (4H) 06:01 Institutional Buying Targets 06:42 Safe Haven Currencies 05:52 Interest Rates and Safe Haven Currencies 08:47 Position Sizing with R:R @ 1:1 10:20 Best Buying Opportunities ⭐ 11:04 The BIG PICTURE Analysis ⭐ 13:28 BIG PICTURE Anticipatory Trend 16:31 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: During today's EUR News trading session, the EURUSD initially tried to rally or, as we call it, exhibited a false positive. Still, the market gave back gains as the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates as anticipated by 25 basis points up from 3.50% to 3.75%. So, considering this, where is Price Action going from here? Since April 02, 2023, @ 18:00, it's been a very noisy range. This range is our current price curve analysis. It lands between the Pivot Low of 1.0788 and the Pivot High of 1.1095 and, therefore, places Support @ 1.0945 and Resistance @ 1.1086. Based on the 4H chart, we should be clear for a downtrend breakout if price action opens and closes below our Support Level. A breakout pattern to the downside would also mean Price Action is pulling back from its BIG PICTURE uptrend pattern. Therefore, we should find Institutional Buying Targets around 1.0820 and 1.0800. Considering the US dollar to "safe-haven" currencies like JPY or CHF, we need to be cautious about our position sizing because this will continue to be a volatile range. We're going to have to "ride the wave" professionally. Right now, I see a lot of short-term buying and selling opportunities until Price Action reaches its 4-hour Demand Zone around 1..0800. Once we're there, the longer-term opportunity to buy will be ours.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
4
What should I pay for the sp500 if inflation continues?Where is fair value and where is cheap? Price and value are not the same. Price is snapshot of opinion while value is a moving story that changes over time. PE price to earnings is how we gauge value, at least one of the main ways. I like to think of PE in terms of years. How many years of earnings am I paying in advance for this underlying business?. It helps me realize that there's a big picture story in every asset that will take time to play out. Everything has fair value as well as premium and discount values. If we dont do the homework, we are just guessing and gambling. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in one year. The current market interest rates is how we price the cost of time difference of money flows. Using interest rates to discount is how we calculate if an assets is expensive, fair, or discounted. SPY SPX QQQ NDX DIA DJI VT VTI
SP:SPX
by optionfarmers
4
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
Real Estate Is Rolling OverToday we are taking a look at the Case Shiller Home Index on a year-over-year chart as well as a price chart and using basic, long-term technicals to identify issues and opportunities. I believe we are heading into a recession over the next few years but we will have to see what crazy government program is created to fight that recession that maybe boosts housing back up. Don't forget in 2009 they were printing a ton of money and it didn't save the housing market. I believe home prices on a national level will fall between 25-30% by July 2025 and July 2026. This will depend on if we get UBI, a war, or major hikes in interest rates to fight inflation. Although, I don't believe the FED can hike rates too high because we can't afford the interest on the debt then due to the short-term rollovers. Overall, I am bullish on cash flow real estate in growing areas with growing incomes that have freedom in mind. These areas are experiencing growth at a high rate but some of them are getting overheated. On a national level, I expect this all to play out over 3.5-5 years. Make sure you comment below. Argue your points with others, like, follow, and watch an ad if one pops up to support free information. It only costs you a few seconds.
ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYYLong
by DefyingFinance
Stocks To Watch This WeekThe Market's longer term uptrend still intact. Interest rates are driving the market.. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 21 total stocks on this list Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
Editors' picks
NYSE:LYVLong
by Jtacher51
25
FOMC Setup on EUR/USDThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical support). A rate hike is an indication of tightening monetary policy, which fundamentally strengthens the dollar against other currencies. This will produce a down move on the EUR/USD (want to sell EUR for USD). If rates remain neutral (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken considerably (up move on EUR/USD). If rates are lowered (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken quite rapidly (up move on EUR/USD).
Short
by Derivati_Capital
1