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IF the 30 year bond stays above the trend line, stocks lose.The three decade + trend for bond rates has been downward. In June, we witnessed the first rise above that trend line in recent history, followed by a return to the trendline last week. This is a pivotal point for both bonds and stocks. If stocks drop back down below the trendline, we can see the market go higher in the near term. If the 30 year bond rates rise this, we can expect a downturn in the stock market. Prediction: Bonds will trade sideways before going up. Stocks, already with substantial momentum, will continue higher, until bonds resume an upward momentum, confirming that the stock bullmarket is over. This may last up until the Fed raises rates in September.
TVC:US30Y
by ericklee64
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
ETHUSD OUTLOOK, 2022-2023, is Ethereum following the leader?Greetings community I have illustrated my outlook on ETH/USD, which to me seems to be corrective, and headed to complete it's cycle to the downside, in addition fundamental's seem to be hand in hand with these technical's as of current. The chart clearly indicates direction and predictable behavior of the asset, with price trading just under $1700, it is merely a matter of whether we'd decline immediately or touch $2000 prior to the anticipated plummet to bottoming out. Ethereum now trades 77% below its $4,951-record high, but some tokens are down 90% from their 2021 peak levels. Concerns about the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy to tame inflation has stoked these sell-offs, hurting parts of traditional stock markets in tandem. In detail, the U.S. central bank plans to hike benchmark rates in 2023, which may leave investors with lesser liquidity to buy riskier assets like BTC and ETH. Additionally, forced selling and liquidity troubles led by the so-called decentralized finance, or DeFi, sector have added downside pressure on the crypto market, thus limiting Ether’s prospects of continuing its recovery rally moving forward. Notes: -ETH 2.0 delays, anticipated for 2023 -Stocks & Crypto's are somewhat in-sync to current financial conditions -Recession rumors -Interest & inflation I would personally enter long positions closer to Q4 2022 leading into Q1 2023 across all assets, while many will be suffering from FOMO, we need to accept that this certainly does seem like the calm before the storm, given the economic state of the US. For me, as a swing trader, it's always beneficial to purchase anything, whether margin trading or simply holding, at the best possible price, especially when you're in it for the long haul and have immense fundamentals tipping the scale. Fingers crossed for Ethereum to fall beneath $1000, and potentially halve from there. I would anticipate for ETH and BTC to bottom out simultaneously, as title states, is Ethereum following the leader?
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by unacknowledged
🔥 Bitcoin & FOMC Interest Rate Decision: What To Watch ForLike most of you know, in a couple of hours the US Federal Reserve will share with the world how much they will increase the interest rates. Remember that lower interest rates = bullish for the markets. At the moment, there's a 75% expectation that the hike will be 0.75% and a 25% expectation that the hike will be 1%. Naturally, if the FED will increase with 1% we can expect a massive down move. The extremely bearish reaction target for a 1% hike would be $18k. However, if the FED will only increase by 0.75% we can expect a slightly bullish move. This might be the starting signal for a move all the way back to the top of the channel, think $24k or so. Obviously, the percentage of the hike will be important. However, what most market participants are watching will be the FED meeting where J. Powell will talk about the outlook of the markets and the interest rate hikes for the coming months. This is where the real direction of the markets will be decided. My advice would be to wait for what the market will do. Ideally wait until tomorrow, because tonight's initial direction can be a fake out, like a couple of meetings ago.
by FieryTrading
17
🔥 Has Inflation Peaked? A Century Old Trend Suggests YesWith inflation rising, the FED is applying quantitative tightening to the US market and the Dollar, which has caused chaos in the market of 2022. The market fears that the FED is not doing enough to combat this inflation, which will cause higher inflation, which will eventually cause further chaos in the markets. However, looking at the chart it seems that inflation is currently at a massive "resistance" which has developed over the last 100 years or so. If inflation were to adhere to the trend, we can assume that inflation has peaked and will move down from here onwards, which would result in much better (bullish) market conditions. I'm aware that applying TA on fundamental data like inflation is generally speculative at best. I think that inflation will rise further as long as the FED is unable (or unwilling) to rise the interest rates further. Nevertheless, I think this analysis can shed a different light on on the most important piece of data of 2022. Time will tell. Do you think think inflation has peaked? Share your thoughts in the comments.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by FieryTrading
20
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level. Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly. For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear. Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling. Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years. Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
NASDAQ:SQQQEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
5
5 Years of the Yield Curve 2018 - Flattening curve throughout the year with some slight inversion towards the end. 2019 - Complete inversion early in the year lasting awhile. Entire curve beginning to fall. 2020 - COVID Fed response slams the short end to the ground with the longer end having a pretty muted reaction. 2021 - Curve starts to stretch with short rates being extremely low and long rates showing pretty strong upside. 2021 - So far, the short rates have become unhooked from the 0 line and launched towards long rates. The curve has inverted again and there are no signs of slowing on the short end.
TVC:US01Y
by Seth-Goldberg
🔥 Bitcoin: Fundamental & Technical Analysis Signaling BullishIn today's analysis I want to give a comprehensive analysis on why I think that we're about to see a mini bull-run in the coming weeks. It's going to be a longer than usual read, but it will be worth your time 😊. Contents: 1) FED Interest rate hike on 04-05-22 & BTC bear-flag 2) SP500 3) DXY (dollar index) 4) VIX (SP500 volatility index) 5) Concluding remarks 1) FED Interest rate hike on 04-05-22 Tomorrow, the FED will announce the new interest rate. The expectation is that they're going to hike the rates by 0.5%. The FED has been signaling this hike for the last couple of weeks, so I'm expecting the FED to keep their word on it. There's currently a lot of fear in the markets, so if the FED decides to hike more than expected we can expect a strong sell-off. This contradicts the FED's "soft-landing policy", hence I'm expecting they won't deviate from the +0.5% hike. The last time the FED hiked the rates was at 15-03. Back then there was also a lot of fear in the markets, but the fact that the FED has kept their word led to a big run-up in both stocks and crypto for several weeks. During periods of high fear (like now), neutral news = good news = bullish price action. Lastly, BTC is trading near a very important support at the moment. The fact that we haven't fallen through yet means that the market is still indecisive of the near-term trend. If the FED news will be positive we can expect the support to hold, leading to further continuation of the pattern. 2) SP500 After the initial March run-up, the SP500 has given back all gains made during that time. Reason behind this fall is a further deterioration of the market outlook in the long-term due to rising interest rates and inflation. In the picture below you can see that the last rate hike on 15-03 has led to a huge bullish move. During the current sell-off, the price got slightly below the support area. This fake break-out has now trapped many bears who were eagerly waiting for the price to fall through the support area. If the price keeps rising, said bears will have to cover theirs shorts, leading to further bullish pressure. 3) DXY (dollar index) A lot of analysist (me included) have been talking about the DXY recently, so I'll keep it brief. A bullish dollar means that investors are flocking to safety, which leads to bearish pressure on risky assets like BTC and tech-stocks. At the moment, the DXY is severely overbought on the weekly chart. Furthermore, the DXY is trading inside a strong 5-year resistance area. See the chart below. Personally, I think that we're long overdue to some sort of correction and that we need some weeks to cool-off. This will be bullish news for risky assets like BTC. 4) VIX (SP500 volatility index) The last chart of the day will be the VIX. The VIX measures the volatility in the SP500 index. A rising VIX usually means bearish price action. If you're unsure what the VIX is and how to analyze it I'd advice you to take a look at my analysis below where I talk about how to time Bitcoin bottoms with the VIX. If we take a look at the current value of the VIX you can clearly see that we're (again) trading in a very important area of resistance, see picture below. The area between 35-40 has been an area of reversal for the last couple of years, so chances are that this area will hold and that the VIX will see some kind of reversal. A bearish VIX is bullish for stocks and therefore for crypto. 5) Concluding remarks In the long-term, I'm still bearish until proven otherwise. In previous analyses I wrote that I still expect one more capitulation below $30k before we can safely assume that the Bitcoin bottom is in. However, that doesn't mean that we can't have another 2-4 green weeks. I doubt whether this will be the moment that we're going to $50k, but in the end no one knows. Don't use this analysis to go make bullish entries already. Wait for the market to react to the FED rates and adjust your game-plan.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
9
EuroDollar Futures CurveThe EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future. This is an ominous sign that the Federal Reserve, and likely central banks all over the world, will be forced to abandon their current monetary policy tightening cycles and go back to near zero or zero rates once again (and likely quantitative easing of an unprecedented magnitude as well. $200B per month in treasuries?). Bottom line, the downward slope in yield marks the approximate time of the next recession, according to the bets that are currently on the table. As always, anything can happen and opinions can change. Buy the dip < Sell the rip
G
by The_Arena_Trader
9
The #1 Chart to WatchLadies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation which we have never really experienced long-term. Our leaders won't admit it but *News Flash* the Supply Chains are NOT getting fixed like they were before. China has no incentive or interest to fix them and we are the world's biggest debtor. We got 20% of all our imports from them in 2021. That doesn't sound like a lot but that 20% is involved in the supply chains of 70-80% of our goods. The Chinese gov has already warned its people of the incoming food shortage and have been far more honest with their people than our Western leaders have been. Good luck in the New World Order! Courtesy of the World Gov. Summit 2022, the IMF, World Bank, etc. (Not Financial Advice, Just what I see.)
TVC:US10YLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
🔥 Bitcoin & The Federal Funds Rate: An Easy ExplanationEver since the FED has been talking about interest rates, I see questions popping up on social media where investors ask why the federal funds rate (also known as the FED interest rate) is so important for the stock and crypto markets. With this post I'd like to write an easy understandable explanation on what the FED funds rate is and why it is important. What is the FED funds rate? The FED funds rate is the interest rate set by the FOMC (the committee of the FED). This interest rate targets the rate at which commercial banks in the USA can lend and borrow excess money to each other. Higher rates means it's more expensive to borrow money for banks, lower rates make it cheaper. Why is it so important? The FOMC changes the rate in order to control inflation. Higher rates reduce the money supply because money is more expensive to get (borrow), whilst lower rates increase the money supply because it encourages spending. The latter has happened during the 2008 Financial crisis and the more recent Corona crisis. Encouraging people to spend money generally helps the economy. Rule of thumb: if the economy is in good shape, higher interest rates are needed to control inflation. If the economy is in bad shape, lower interest rates will encourage people to spend and can help turn things around. Should I be afraid of it? Generally, no. As seen on the BTC chart above, the only time that the FED has increased the rates it did not have a bearish effect on BTC. However, this was done during a period of lower inflation than we currently have. To combat the current inflation rates, the FED needs to increase the rate at a much faster and higher rate than what we have seen in the past 30 years. During the 1980's the interest rate was set to 20% in order to combat strong inflation, I'd argue the FED has to do that as well if they don't raise the raids much faster this year. The imposed rate hikes of 0.25% every meeting are not enough to reduce the 10% year-over-year inflation. In case the FED decides to raise the rates with big steps (>1% per meeting), this can definitely have a huge impact on the stock- and crypto-markets. It will become much more expensive for banks to borrow (and invest) money since money will become more scarce. There's no immediate danger for the markets. However, if inflation spirals out of control because the FED decides not to act (keep the rates low), they'd have to increase the rates much higher and quicker than everyone anticipates, which will trigger a big sell-off in the markets. In my view, this will be the start of the next crypto bear-market. The FED interest rates are most definitely an interesting, but also difficult topic. If you think that I've skipped an important part, please share your knowledge in the comment section. The more people know about it, the better.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
88
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4