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FOMC Setup on EUR/USDThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical support). A rate hike is an indication of tightening monetary policy, which fundamentally strengthens the dollar against other currencies. This will produce a down move on the EUR/USD (want to sell EUR for USD). If rates remain neutral (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken considerably (up move on EUR/USD). If rates are lowered (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken quite rapidly (up move on EUR/USD).
Short
by Derivati_Capital
1
When Will We See a New Global MARKET CRASH? The Answer Is...KEY TAKE AWAY'S: - DOW JONES (DJI) 1. If we drop -16 % from our HIGH, we will go into a Bear Market (red dotted line) 2. 80 % of the time we will also drop to -24 % according to historical data 3. 73 % of the time, if we go into a Bear Market, we will also go into a recession. 4. AND an average bear market last 1.5 years with a -34 % percent decline in price! METHOD: - I have superimposed the 2007-2008 Crash on top of the new already in process ABC-correction. It matches with waves and divergences on e.g. RSI. - I have taking FA into consideration: a. Real Estate Crisis in the bigger cities - US Real Estate Bubble about to implode also b. Expectations to when and how much FED and chairman Powell's will raise interest rates c. Looked at the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and compared it to other Market Crashes RESULT: We will go into a Bear Market 30.9.2019 D4 - Please Leave a LIKE if you appreciated the content!
DJ:DJI
by D4rkEnergY
16
USDCAD: After BoC Interest Rate Good afternoon everyone, we are looking at the USDCAD pair again after the BoC Interest Rate decision. They did not change anything so the news were not that good for the CAD and for our long term short trade, that we linked below. On the other hand the pattern is pretty much the same as before. The only difference is that there is another spike high and a better entry chance for now - divergence also held its form. Means we are still overall bearish on this pair.
Short
by darian_fx
2
EURUSD Currency Pair Falling Faster Than a MeteoriteThe EUR/USD Currency pair will continue to fall. Why will t his happen? There are several factors directly responsible for the rapid decline of the Euro. The first one is interest rates. Bond investors invest their money in countries that have rising interest rates, such as the U.S.(2.25%). On the other hand, bond investors withdraw their money and investments from countries with low interest rates, such as the Euro Zone (0%). Another reason for the rapid decline in value of the Euro is GDP. Euro Zone second quarter GDP growth edged down to 2.1% from first quarter GDP readings of 2.4%. More technical factors explaining the recent decline of the EUR-USD currency pair are discussed here .
by mstardom
GBPCHF POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITY GBPCHF POTENTIAL LONG 1D Chart: *in the previous day buyers had showed us very strong interest in this pair *GBPCHF attemted to make a new low but was a fakeout caused by the buyers with STRONG momentum, showing strong INTEREST *wait for a weak pull back down into structure around 1.2600 area for more precise and better entry -remember we never just want to chase trades! 4H Chart: *on this timeframe we had seen a very strong push to the upside breaching structure *look for an inside return on this chart, make sure the sellers are weaker then the buyers -this will show us that the buyers are in control, which is what we want if we are looking to go long :) Remember to ALWAYS have a trading plan and a disciplined approach when coming into the markets. Having a plan and staying true to that plan is key. Make sure every trade is a strategic business decision and is in high probability for your favor. Make sure to always use proper risk as well never risking more than 2% of capital per trade ! Keep and eye out for a weak re-test if we get one and continued interest by buyer on the re-test of recent significant structure! Cheers!
Long
by JosePips
4
BTP, calm before the storm, trigger the interest ratehello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal policy, I expect a higher deficit and maybe a cut in taxes. This will trigger a sell in the bond market of BTP, driving interest rate up and consequently price down. Here I post a couple of interest readings on Italy, which can give us some idea of what to expect. www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com au revoir, docCDS
TVC:IT10
by DocCDS
EURGBP BUY OPPORTUNITY. EVENT TRADING - BoEBank of England (BoE) meeting minutes 12:00 UTC today (2nd August) Two Catalysts for EUR/GBP 1) BoE will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 UTC+2 on 2nd of August. Markets are pricing 80-90% implied probability of a rate hike to 0.75% (it is 0.5% now). From reported economic indicators, the unemployment rate remains glued at 4.25% and wage growth has decelerated compared to latest inflation report from May ( from 2.9% to 2.7%). Core inflation has also surprised to the downside. Calculating using the futures contracts, markets have priced in the rate hike, therefore there should not be a gap up if they hike. In that case the market would react more on BoE outlook of the economy and economic projections, and there is a chance they will not be as good as markets may expect, as expectations right now are really high, Which gives me grounds to believe that even with a rate hike there is bigger change of a gap up of EUR/GBP (weak GBP) than gap down. And if they surprisingly do not hike, then than would be a hell gap up omg that would be awesome.. :D 2) You can also see that EUR/GBP is on the up trend and is approaching lower trend line, which is a huge support for this pair. That means that there is a technical catalyst for EUR/GBP to go up.
Long
by laurynas.lucka
1
Outperformance is comingThe tax reform of Trump makes an investment in the USA not only useful from a tax point of view. As the global economic crisis of 2018-2022 with hire interest rates and sinkig Bonds the pension sector such as life insurance, will come in massive trouble. The capital from this sector can only flow into the next liquid market and these are by far the stock exchanges and stocks traded there. As a reminder, the global bond market is 3x the size of the global stock market. An 50% of global stock market are US-shares. If only 1% of the bond market flows into equities, the stock markets will rise by 3%! Therefore, anyone who wants to destroy their capital simply remains invested in bonds or life insurance products. If you want to generate more income, you need good stocks. Greetz from Hanover Stefan Bode P.S. If you like it, talk/write about and share it.
TVC:RUTLong
by StefanBode
SPY following giant descending triangleAMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As investors are buying more bonds for safety the yield increases and we passed the 3.0% yield today which carries a psychological importance as well (e.g 8 years ago it was 3.9%). Adding political and global uncertainties to this created a market that is much more easily spooked compared to Jan'18. See CBOE:VIX The critical resistance for the S&P 500 index is at 2580. If we break lower the chances are that mutual fund managers technical analysts are going to advice : "sell, sell, sell". NASDAQ:TLT NASDAQ:IGOV AMEX:TLH CBOE:TNX If we do break the 2580
AMEX:SPY
by Call_the_bottom
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Levels of Interest TodayBitcoin: BTCUSD Not Out of Woods Yet By 7.30pm est the Chinese market opened and started to pile in, probably not believing their luck that Bitcoin was trading at the ideal entry point off 7077 again. The immediate burst of buying took Bitcoin up to test the resistance line at 7344 for a quick 260 points of profiit before sellers moved back in. Since then we've seen backing and filling as it comes back to test the parabola again, which is NOT holding it up now and is curently at 7150, with fixed support at 7140... and more at 7077 nearby. It should start to find support around here but then has to break out of the little channel it's running down to break free of selling pressure and hold up on retests when the breakout occurs...That breakout should be worth following if we see it. Downside, it can come back to 7077-7060 but must hold up here today if it is to avoid another fall back to 6943....if it does this, it becomes a buy again for day-traders at 6943 with stop just under 6900, looking for a rally back to 7070 initially. Stops on current longs remain below 7050, which if broken means that 6934 will likely be tested again. The 6934 level down to 6900 remains critical for Bitcoin. It must hold up here on all tests. Failure to do so will trigger a welter of selling in all likelihood, back to 6312 at least, more likely to 6165. A good short, if we see it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
(4h) Short-Term Sell & Long-Term BuyAfter analyzing the bigger timeframe perspective of the GBPUSD, it seems that the market cycle for this pair is heading for a bullish trend . The Fed Interest Rate decision will determine the continuation of this trend, although it's more than likely that the Fed will maintain the current Interest Rate value until December 13th. Utilizing the Fibonacci Retracement Levels, we can expect a downward correction in the following days, followed by a long-term continuation of the original bullish impulse. So, for Scalpers , it's recommended to put a Sell order after the Fed decision as the price will move towards 0.5 level, possibly reaching the 0.618. Nevertheless, I'd say it's a good idea to place a Buy order once it bounces back, from these same levels, for the longer pip ride.
Long
by CarlosBMN