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Silver is a Screaming BuyAll long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold. Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 1998. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index (TDI) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio. Silver is sitting on top of the .382 fib level support shown in the chart, which is where the current cost of production resides around $14.75/oz. Low risk, high reward - this is a perfect setup for those interested in making an inflation play going toward negative rates, QE4 and the end of the petrodollar. % Returns Analysis: Silver below Gold -> Silver undervalued Fibonacci Level: Strong support at cost of production near $14.75/oz TDI: Bullish divergence in formation Gold/Silver ratio: 83:1 -> Silver undervalued
TVC:SILVERLong
by Derivati_Capital
1
Precious Metals, the historical safe haven. What can be said about gold and precious metals? Gold has always started out as sound money, followed by monetary expansion, devaluation, and eventual collapse. Take the Roman Empire for example, money started as solid gold coins which eventually expanded with a mixture of base metal, than became worthless. Remember when a quarter was silver, penny was copper, and the rest was a mixture of silver, copper? Now? They are worthless base metals. This trend continued throughout history. Here we are again. This read will go through some of the current economic conditions with some commentary and suggestions. So, let's start with some recent economic news: 7 out of 9 recessions since 1950 came after rate hikes. Auto-Loan Delinquencies are higher today than the peak of 2008 recession. Corporate Debt has doubled since the 2008 recession. National, student, personal, and credit card debt is higher now than 2008. At Record Levels* Germany and Italy GDP Growth Rate is -0.2, Japan GDP Growth Rate is -0.6 New Home Sales fell 19% in 2018. Existing Home Sales have fallen. Auto-Sales are down on average 3%, up to 6% by manufacturer report. Credit Card delinquencies are up 17% since Q1 2016. Derivatives up more than $100 trillion since 2009. China posted two-consecutive contraction in manufacturing. 1 in 3 Americans have less than $5,000 saved for retirement. 69% Of Americans Have Less Than $1000 In Savings So, what's going to happen? - The ugly truth is economic and monetary pain. Global economic weakness and contraction is here. Once the markets finally react to the toxicity of the monetary system, the central banks will react like they have in the passed with slashing interest rates, debt purchasing, and bond buying programs. But this time, resulting in the weakening or even failure of a currency. Let's go back to that monetary trend. Gold, expansion, devaluation, and than collapse. It's obvious where in the trend the monetary system is. We should expect astronomical injection of liquidity, purchasing of debts, and QE.... as a start. There are a few nations which have foreseen this and have been buying gold like never before. So, if they can foresee the problem and offset their exposure to it.. why aren't you? Have you noticed that gold has made a dramatic comeback after the bear market started? Gold has broke $1300 barrier with ease, and continued upward even with the stock market gains. Regardless, the price of gold must keep up with inflation. This tells us that the smart investors are starting to pile into safe havens, regardless what the market or central banks do. The recent actions from the Fed have proven that the stock market is indeed a bubble. The 0% interest rates fueled the bubble, the interest rate hikes popped the bubble. We saw proof of this: *Dec 21st, 2015 - (Dow 17,700) - Interest hiked, Dow fell 2,060 points until the Fed calmed markets by stopping rate hikes until after elections. *Feb 2018 - Dow fell 2,244 points. *Sept-Dec 2018 - Dow fell from 26,828 to 21,792 a drop of 5,036 points. *Feb 2018 - Fed announces pause in rate hikes, Dow jumps 400-points. As you can see, the Fed and interest rates have a direct impact on the stock market. Rising interest rates have put Emerging Markets in a tough spot, as 2018 saw EM Currencies drop anywhere from 20-50%. Recession is on the horizon, even in Europe. The fear is that the ECB will be powerless to calm any financial turmoil as ECB interest rates are already negative and QE is still being implemented. In the US, the Fed will slash rates to 0% immediately, followed by QE, but, this time the dollar will take a severe hit. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What to do from here? You see the storm far off and it's growing as well as coming towards you but where you stand, it's relatively calm. The problem is complacency in the calm or believing the storm is long away from hitting. But, storms are variable and can move any direction and gain speed. So, why not acknowledge the problem and prepare now? Now that gold is not $2,000+/oz. Why not look into gold mining stocks that are up 8-25% since November? Start putting more into precious metals and less into stocks, forex, and crypto. 15%-20% of your portfolio is not enough. Stocks, currencies, crypto can drop 90% in less than a year, but precious metals will always have value. Ask yourself how long it took for the Dow to reach 26,600 points and then ask yourself how long it took to drop 4,000 points? Take a moment to think about that. 10-years to grow to 26,000 vs 4-months to fall 5,036, where is the stability in that? This isn't a case of "eventually it will happen", it's already begun. The gains and drops are volatility that has set in. Gold Price Targets: North of $2,000 / OZ. Realistic, 3-5 Is Cryptocurrency a good investment? No. It is now commonly known as digital fools gold. Without internet, you can't access or spend it. It has no value, its another form of fiat. As long as the people believe crypto is worth something, it has "value" but based on its current price, investors and traders are realizing its true worth. Worthless. Nothing. Nada. What are some good mining stocks? BTG - WRN - ASM - AUY - GLD, most of these stocks are up anywhere from 10%-20% (1-Week to 3-Month). Compare that to stock market, which are down on average 20%. What stage are we at and when could this happen? We're Q1 of 2007, heading into Q2. Remember, Q2 is where all the trouble began when rates adjusted. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In conclusion. The numbers are out there, you can see it all for yourself. It doesn't take an expert to see the numbers are bad and the financials are toxic. It just takes effort and interest. If we take all of our financial news from major financial news organizations (stars with C and the other with B), then we're not going to see it until after it hits. Just remember, their "experts" said there was no recession coming and this were great. A recession isn't official acknowledged until its already here. What stage are we at and when could this happen? We're Q1 of 2007, heading into Q2. Remember, Q2 is where all the trouble began.
TVC:GOLD
by WorldEconomics
How the FED Will Pump SilverHistorically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it breaks once more. It is practically certain that going into this next recession, the FED will once more lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Yet each time they do this, they must start by filling the "bad debt black hole" in order to prevent a complete breakdown in confidence. The black hole grows proportionally to debt, and considering there is more debt now than there ever has been in history, the initial round of QE required this go around must be unprecedented in scale. QE and suppressed interest rates are what caused commodity prices to take off in 2009, notably gold, silver and oil. We can expect the same result this go around. Once the FED is forced to lower interest rates close to or below 0%, there will be no floor on inflation. That point in time will be the perfect setup for silver to shine. When will it happen? It could take another year or so before we see a FED response to a market suffering from debt withdrawals. SLV calls are particularly attractive in such a scenario, as they offer superior leverage for limited risk. Assuming SLV went from $15 to $60 within two years (well within reason), SLV calls offer reward:risk of up to 70:1. Best positioning may be found after a drastic FFR rate cut. Side note: Largest physical holding of silver, and manager of the SLV fund, just so happens to be JPM. JPM also *coincidentally* held the largest net short position in silver on the futures exchange not long ago (cash deliverable only).
AMEX:SLVLong
by Derivati_Capital
2
FOMC Setup on EUR/USDThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to unveil another rate hike this Wednesday, December 19th 2018. Probability of a rate hike is quite high, as a neutral or easing federal funds rate would indicate "a need for stimulus" in the U.S. economy (God forbid the FED indicates weakness in the economy while the stock market is sitting just above critical support). A rate hike is an indication of tightening monetary policy, which fundamentally strengthens the dollar against other currencies. This will produce a down move on the EUR/USD (want to sell EUR for USD). If rates remain neutral (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken considerably (up move on EUR/USD). If rates are lowered (unlikely), expect the dollar to weaken quite rapidly (up move on EUR/USD).
Short
by Derivati_Capital
1
When Will We See a New Global MARKET CRASH? The Answer Is...KEY TAKE AWAY'S: - DOW JONES (DJI) 1. If we drop -16 % from our HIGH, we will go into a Bear Market (red dotted line) 2. 80 % of the time we will also drop to -24 % according to historical data 3. 73 % of the time, if we go into a Bear Market, we will also go into a recession. 4. AND an average bear market last 1.5 years with a -34 % percent decline in price! METHOD: - I have superimposed the 2007-2008 Crash on top of the new already in process ABC-correction. It matches with waves and divergences on e.g. RSI. - I have taking FA into consideration: a. Real Estate Crisis in the bigger cities - US Real Estate Bubble about to implode also b. Expectations to when and how much FED and chairman Powell's will raise interest rates c. Looked at the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and compared it to other Market Crashes RESULT: We will go into a Bear Market 30.9.2019 D4 - Please Leave a LIKE if you appreciated the content!
DJ:DJI
by D4rkEnergY
16
USDCAD: After BoC Interest Rate Good afternoon everyone, we are looking at the USDCAD pair again after the BoC Interest Rate decision. They did not change anything so the news were not that good for the CAD and for our long term short trade, that we linked below. On the other hand the pattern is pretty much the same as before. The only difference is that there is another spike high and a better entry chance for now - divergence also held its form. Means we are still overall bearish on this pair.
Short
by darian_fx
2
EURUSD Currency Pair Falling Faster Than a MeteoriteThe EUR/USD Currency pair will continue to fall. Why will t his happen? There are several factors directly responsible for the rapid decline of the Euro. The first one is interest rates. Bond investors invest their money in countries that have rising interest rates, such as the U.S.(2.25%). On the other hand, bond investors withdraw their money and investments from countries with low interest rates, such as the Euro Zone (0%). Another reason for the rapid decline in value of the Euro is GDP. Euro Zone second quarter GDP growth edged down to 2.1% from first quarter GDP readings of 2.4%. More technical factors explaining the recent decline of the EUR-USD currency pair are discussed here .
by mstardom
GBPCHF POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITY GBPCHF POTENTIAL LONG 1D Chart: *in the previous day buyers had showed us very strong interest in this pair *GBPCHF attemted to make a new low but was a fakeout caused by the buyers with STRONG momentum, showing strong INTEREST *wait for a weak pull back down into structure around 1.2600 area for more precise and better entry -remember we never just want to chase trades! 4H Chart: *on this timeframe we had seen a very strong push to the upside breaching structure *look for an inside return on this chart, make sure the sellers are weaker then the buyers -this will show us that the buyers are in control, which is what we want if we are looking to go long :) Remember to ALWAYS have a trading plan and a disciplined approach when coming into the markets. Having a plan and staying true to that plan is key. Make sure every trade is a strategic business decision and is in high probability for your favor. Make sure to always use proper risk as well never risking more than 2% of capital per trade ! Keep and eye out for a weak re-test if we get one and continued interest by buyer on the re-test of recent significant structure! Cheers!
Long
by JosePips
4
BTP, calm before the storm, trigger the interest ratehello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal policy, I expect a higher deficit and maybe a cut in taxes. This will trigger a sell in the bond market of BTP, driving interest rate up and consequently price down. Here I post a couple of interest readings on Italy, which can give us some idea of what to expect. www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com au revoir, docCDS
TVC:IT10
by DocCDS
EURGBP BUY OPPORTUNITY. EVENT TRADING - BoEBank of England (BoE) meeting minutes 12:00 UTC today (2nd August) Two Catalysts for EUR/GBP 1) BoE will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 UTC+2 on 2nd of August. Markets are pricing 80-90% implied probability of a rate hike to 0.75% (it is 0.5% now). From reported economic indicators, the unemployment rate remains glued at 4.25% and wage growth has decelerated compared to latest inflation report from May ( from 2.9% to 2.7%). Core inflation has also surprised to the downside. Calculating using the futures contracts, markets have priced in the rate hike, therefore there should not be a gap up if they hike. In that case the market would react more on BoE outlook of the economy and economic projections, and there is a chance they will not be as good as markets may expect, as expectations right now are really high, Which gives me grounds to believe that even with a rate hike there is bigger change of a gap up of EUR/GBP (weak GBP) than gap down. And if they surprisingly do not hike, then than would be a hell gap up omg that would be awesome.. :D 2) You can also see that EUR/GBP is on the up trend and is approaching lower trend line, which is a huge support for this pair. That means that there is a technical catalyst for EUR/GBP to go up.
Long
by laurynas.lucka
1
Outperformance is comingThe tax reform of Trump makes an investment in the USA not only useful from a tax point of view. As the global economic crisis of 2018-2022 with hire interest rates and sinkig Bonds the pension sector such as life insurance, will come in massive trouble. The capital from this sector can only flow into the next liquid market and these are by far the stock exchanges and stocks traded there. As a reminder, the global bond market is 3x the size of the global stock market. An 50% of global stock market are US-shares. If only 1% of the bond market flows into equities, the stock markets will rise by 3%! Therefore, anyone who wants to destroy their capital simply remains invested in bonds or life insurance products. If you want to generate more income, you need good stocks. Greetz from Hanover Stefan Bode P.S. If you like it, talk/write about and share it.
TVC:RUTLong
by StefanBode
SPY following giant descending triangleAMEX:SPY S&P 500 is following a giant descending triangle, even though on 04.18.18 it has not touched the triangle. Overall the market is bearish short term , despite being in the earnings season. In a bullish market some neutral and positive earnings report would have been interpreted as bullish . Increasing treasury yields may be partly to blame. As investors are buying more bonds for safety the yield increases and we passed the 3.0% yield today which carries a psychological importance as well (e.g 8 years ago it was 3.9%). Adding political and global uncertainties to this created a market that is much more easily spooked compared to Jan'18. See CBOE:VIX The critical resistance for the S&P 500 index is at 2580. If we break lower the chances are that mutual fund managers technical analysts are going to advice : "sell, sell, sell". NASDAQ:TLT NASDAQ:IGOV AMEX:TLH CBOE:TNX If we do break the 2580
AMEX:SPY
by Call_the_bottom