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Interestrate

US INTERESET RATE! FOMC STATEMENTHello guys! Let's talk about the US interest rate news that will be published tonight. I am not a good fundamentalist but I am a good chartist instead. That's why I put the US interest rate chart in the picture above. The above photo is the most data that has been published about interest rates so far. I see that around 1980 the interest rate went up to 20%. This figure is really strange for the American economy, isn't it? And for the economic crisis of 2008, raising it to 5%. The chart below is for the last 20 years. And the photo on the right is the analysts' forecast for the interest rate, that is, they predict that today the US interest rate will reach 2.5% and after that it will reach up to 3.5%. But if we look at the interest rate chart alone, it is reaching its downward trend line and I see a resistance in the lower time. Which do you think we should be assured? Chart or fundamental analysts?
TVC:DXY
by melikatrader94
1
DXY BUYFundamental: Overall I have a bullish bias for the DXY (USD), given the current recession, it being the federal reserve and the feds current hawkish. Inaddition this week news on the US interest rate will be released, forecasted to increase by 0.75 making the total interest rate at a massive 2.5%. Increasing the interest rate is often used a strategy to reduce inflation. Technical analysis: The white light represents the 50% retracement line, pirce has bounced between the 38 and 50% RL- Healthy pull back The greens lines show the bullish divergence on the rsi, where the price is making lower lows whilst the rsi is making higher lows. The current upsike on the chart has a HIGHER rsi reading then previous prices at similar or higher levels, showing bulls are increasing. The red box represents a resistance zone in which price was unable to breakthrough, if price manages to breakthrough the resistance zone and THEN find support above the resistance zone then a bullish trend (or bullish thesis) can be confirmed. Trades: The pairs I may trade against the dollar: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDZAR Pairs I may be trade because of dollar bullishness: EURCAD, EURNZD, EURGBP
TVC:DXYLong
by tabbyfatcatx3
Interest rate ( DOLLAR )How high will the Federal Reserve ( FED ) raise interest rates? Here you can see how far. As you can see we still have a long way to go. We are on the verge of breaking a congestion of more than 40 years. The minimum rate hike will be up to 5 points. And that is at least, because we could revisit levels not seen since the 80s. We are in serious trouble, the economy of all citizens will suffer a lot. It is time to be cautious in the markets and not to make hasty decisions, as we may still have a long way to go before we see the end.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by javieralcazarono
S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash. The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5
Bonds Sell Off on Hawkish Fed MinutesBonds are back to hugging lows, after a brief attempt at higher levels. We found immediate resistance one level above at 121'00. Even the rally to that level encountered serious resistance at every step, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We are back to lows again at 120'14. The Kovach OBV is very bearish so we can expect an imminent breakdown to lower levels. Our next target is 119'23, which is significant as we will have given up the 120's all together.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Part 1) Don't Fight The Fed with 30 Year Interest Rate Target.There's an apparent "reverse head & shoulders pattern" on the Monthly 30 Year Yield Chart. The implication of the broken neckline is a reversal of the previous downtrend. Dow theory teaches us that the minimum upside target is the depth of the neckline to the peak of the "head." I see potential resistance at the downward resistance trendline and then again at the previous swing high. If the trend breaks back below the neckline then the whole pattern is suspect. If the reversal is legit then we can suggest the time frame to reach the target would be the width of the "head & shoulders" along the neckline. In this instance the chart is suggesting we get to the price target in about three years give or take. Thoughts?
TVC:US30Y
by Breakout_Charts
US 10 Yr Treasury: Weekly Chart UpdateQuick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1W Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNXLong
by MillionaireEconomics
4
GBPJPY - To break support?GBPJPY consolidating here at a noticeable 4 hour support/resistance zone. JPY appears strong this week and for that reason we may see a drop to the downside from the current consolidation area. By observing the daily timeframe I can also see price has broken the ascending trendline and is holding well beneath. I will be waiting to see how price action develops with this following the result of the Bank of England interest rate decision today, before considering an entry.
Short
by MMQ_FX
9
GBPUSD: possible long scenarioYesterday pound has weakened, after Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested UK interest rates could soon be cut if the economy doesn't pick up speed. Sterling hit a two-week low and the price almost reached 1.30. Does it mean the uptrend is over and the market has already priced positive Brexit deal? If somebody is still looking for longs, buying from 1.29-1.30 zone and waiting for the target around 1.32-1.33 is decent from the R:R prospective. The market is moving sideways, but if looking on higher time frames GBPUSD is still in uptrend. We can start preparing for short scenarios after the price breaks below 1.29 level. // Follow me to stay updated with my ideas!)
Long
by GIgor_021
ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
6
Navigating through the RBA Interest Rate Decision : AUDUSDThe market is pricing in for the RBA to cut their interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. Personally, I always stay on the sidelines during interest rate risk events. The reason is how unpredictable the market reaction going to be. I believe that institutions use risk events to get liquidity via stop hunts/ price manipulation hence the spike direction has no correlation (at most case) with the rate decision. "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency" is the basic thing being taught to every trader. Tho it has some degree of truth in it but it is not that easy, traders should put this in their head: Stop Hunters loves big news events. For example, on July 2nd, 2019. RBA decided to cut their rates and the intraday direction of that day after the interest rate decision was UP. The reaction news spike did go down tho. Whoever went short (via trading the news) probably got some pips (if they get filled at the price they wanted, which is very rare!) but high chance get stopped out because traders logic suggests AUDUSD should go down because "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency" So it is not that simple. Another example, on June 4th, 2019, RBA cut their rates and interestingly the reactionary spike was not down but up and then the price closed below the 12.30pm (Singapore time) candle open. The intraday trend later that day was up. "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency"? This is an example last May when the RBA decided to keep their interest rate. This time the reactionary candle moved exactly the traders logic of "Interest Cut = bearish for the currency". However, that's the only bullish move AUDUSD made that day, in fact AUDUSD went down days after that. All these reactionary candles are traces of stop hunts happening during big news event, and RBA cash rate decision is prone to this as well. I will not trade before and during the risk event, the soonest I would trade this is 30 minutes after the decision rate and/or after the RBA governor's speech (if there's any) Technically, I am still bearish AUDUSD. Whatever decision RBA makes on Tuesday, I believe its almost fully priced in. I am anticipating some random news spike on Tuesday however and if that spike tapping in the levels at the upside, then that would be awesome because I could short AUDUSD at a better price. That's probably the only way I would "trade" the news spike.
Short
by sufiansaid
Spitting Thoughts : the ECB Interest Rate, do we understand it?..and when I say we, I mean us retail traders without financial / economy background. "More hawkish than expected is good for currency" This is what stated in one of the popular website's economic calendar. How do you define more hawkish when it comes to this specific risk event? Is it just simply the headline number "ECB cut rates to 0.25%"? Is it all about the ECB's president speech afterward? What we know, the interest rate is the major mover for the respective currency in the long term. Meaning, what we understood as it would dictate the bearishness or the bullishness of the currency for the next few months or years. If you just follow this website's basic interpretation of the risk event, that more hawkish means good for currency, and hence cutting or increasing rates unfortunately being assumed and oversimplified as binary for retail traders to latch onto. If ECB cut rates, it is "bad" for the currency (bearish) and if ECB increases rates, it is "good" for the currency (bullish). At least that is what I was taught. You look at the chart on Nov 7th, 2013, the ECB cut-rate to 0.25% whilst the consensus (according to what was printed every website that has Economic Calendar) was 0.50%. The general logic dictates that the Euro should be bearish. That day EURUSD was indeed having a major sell-off but look at what happened after that? EURUSD went up for the next 7 months. A similar-ish thing happened (the surprise and the decision to cut the interest rate) on the 5th of June 2014 and the 4th September 2014 but the outcomes couldn't be any more different. The ECB decision in June 2014, the price went up instead of down for the entirety of that trading month, albeit after EURUSD trending down for the last 4 weeks prior to the ECB rate decision. The ECB decision in September 2014, the price finally went according to the general logic that "cut rates = currency bearish", down. However, take a look at the trend at the time. EURUSD was in a bearish trend for the past 2 months prior to the ECB rate decision. Whilst the headline numbers told us, retail traders, the same thing (surprise number, cut rates), the outcome was different. I believe in FUndamental Analysis and this post is by no means to disregard this side of the analytical spectrum but trading based on this risk event is too complex and above our "pay grade". We can see how it creates a spike? Then the least take away that I hope the readers would get from reading this is to NOT to trade EURUSD on the day of the rate decision. If you were already in a position on that day, CLOSE YOUR TRADE. "I have my stop-loss dude, I am good". Erm Wrong! Your stop loss will not be guaranteed to be filled at the price you are putting. SLIPPAGES happen. There's a signal today for EURUSD, trade it, by all means, just make sure you close it before the risk event.
Education
by sufiansaid
Navigating The Market : Trading Plan #AUDNZDThere was liquidity run as anticipated yesterday. Price stayed around in that pool and barely got out to make a meaningful trigger for me to Long AUDNZD. As Tokyo opens, we saw price breaks through above Friday's low suggesting it could be time for price expansion after accumulation. Having said that though, there will be risk events in 7 minutes as of i'm writing now, Retail Numbers for Australia. Fantastic time for the institutions doing some stop hunts. I will be looking for a quick tap downside, another tap into the liquidity pool. 12.30pm (Singapore time) there will be Australia Cash Rate (another best time for tapping in those sell stops down below!), I am expecting they will hold their rate at 1.00% and whatever it is they plan next month have been fully priced in The actionable from this : Long AUDNZD when : Price close above the filter line OR Price makes another move to the downside (close below Monday Low) and wait for another bullish trigger (which would opt me to draw a new Filter line). I love the latter plan better.
Long
by sufiansaid
3