Interestrate
FED rate decision vs technical analysisThe USD/JPY is currently in a weak symmetrical triangle pattern, this is also coincidentally where the 25 MA and the 13 MA look like they will be crossing over in the near future (I would moreover say 13 MA crossing above the 25 MA, indicating a bullish play). Also, the Coppock curve is positive, but is slowly reaching prior resistance, so this could mean a potential rebound if a bullish breakthrough occurs. However, a bullish breakthrough seems more likely since the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement line is providing support to the currency pair.
On the other hand, the FED interest rate decision is tomorrow. So, if the volatility is high and there is a bullish breakthrough, I would be expecting it to be very short-term. If there is a bearish breakthrough, then I would be expecting it to be short-medium term.
WOW! What a rate hike!ERdogan is freaking out!#BE PATIENT!Hey tradomaniacs,
what a HUUUUGE rate hike in turkey today. WOW!
We see that this rate hike obviously increased the value of TRY causing a sell-off today.
But what does that mean? We were breaking out of a triangle which is actually a trend-continuation-pattern.
Yeah... News like that can destroy every pattern and its rules. BUT what will happen?
Well, experts expect that this rate hike could advoid a finacial EU-crisis..bla bla we all know it can`t .
And who knows this? Big institutions!
BE PATIENT right now. We are totally oversold and that could cause a retracement. As long as we stay inside of this support-range, better don`t do anything.
Wait for impulses. I expect a small correction ending up in a consolidation until the market "digested" these news and analysis upcoming expectations.
I expect this: We will see a correction coming to HIGH Supply-Zones (Sl`s). This is the perfect area for big banks to buy their huge position-sizes.
I don`t see turkey is doing better.
We will see. :-)
Don`t do anything in this range.
May trade a break-out ot use a range-strategy but take your profit quickly.
We need to wait. :-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Trading2ez
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Any questions? Need signals or education especially for beginners? PM me. :-)
Few Dollar Appetite LONG and SHORT Position on DXY, Dollar IndexHere's another confirmation about our last idea Of course this time my guidance is a dollar appetite for this month and next with the FED decision to hike interest rate, but here's the deal: buy dollars or keep it till November 22nd where dollar should hit and maybe smash 96.32 - 97.84 level, Then close all your long positions 'cause this hike should happen this year, but if they do or not, price could reject at that level anyway and start to see how dollar plunges. However, my target to go long is 96.32 and then to go short my first target would be around 93.02 and at finally around 85.10 for next march 2018 .
Just in case if we don't see this, I'll be updating, stay tuned.
Cream Live Trading
Cheers!
USDJPY Looking to Breakout Long-Term (500+ Pips)Based on my analysis of the pair's movements this year, I'd expect the pair to have a chance to reverse and continue working through its current channel down to about the 107 mark. However, this analysis is simply based on its current pattern which I predict it will break out from in the long-term due to discrepancies between the Fed and BoJ's macro-scale views.
USDJPY GREAT SETUP SO FAR THIS WEEKWe took a short on USDJPY before NFP on friday in our trading room, however I think the NFP move is not a good indicator of the bigger picture. This is a swing trade.
BUY USDJPY long termDollar pushing up, BOJ could show helicopter, but speculation from big bosses is bigger than for interest rate decission from FED.
GBPUSD - BUYING DIPS CONTINUES: BOE RATE DECISION HIGHLIGHTSBOE view broadly consistent with expectations, a neutral no action. Interestingly and somewhat confusing though was their "If Nov Outlook Broadly Consistent With Aug, Majority Of MPC Expect Further Rate Cut" comment which I am not sure about i.e. Aug data was firm so assuming this continues the BOE will still cut? But either way, looking at their last cut and QE GBP didnt feel the pressure and I expect this to be the same - we will need some USD demand to send GBPUSD below 1.30 for long.
Positioning, I maintain long on GBP dips into 1.31xx, aiming for 1.34. Also tactically, I am looking to short GBPAUD if we can get a daily close in the green - which nicely provides a dynamic hedge for the long STG exposure.
GBPUSD topside also is supported by forming 2 higher highs and 3 higher lows, indicating that infact this uptrend is structural - price action at the 1.345 is pivotal of a bull run.
BOE Minutes:
BOE Sep Minutes: MPC Voted 9-0 to Maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%
BOE Sep Minutes: 9 Voted to Keep Rate Unchanged
BOE Sep Minutes: 0 Voted to Increase Rate
BOE Sep Minutes: 0 Voted to Lower Rate
BOE Voted 9 - 0 to Continue Bond Purchase Program
BOE: Forbes, McCafferty Voted For Bond Purchases After Dissenting Last Month
BOE: Forbes, McCafferty Judged That Reversing QE Carried Economic Costs
BOE: Aug Package Led to Greater Than Anticipated Boost to U.K. Asset Prices
BOE: Evidence On the Initial Impact of Aug Policy Package Is Encouraging
BOE: Since Aug Inflation Report, Number Of Near-Term Activity Indicators Somewhat Stronger Than Expected
BOE: MPC Now Expects Less of a Slowing in UK GDP Growth in 2H 2016
BOE: Staff Now Expect 3Q Growth Of 0.3% Vs Aug Forecast Of 0.1%
BOE: Contours of U.K. Economic Outlook Following Brexit Vote Had Not Changed
BOE: Inflation To Return To 2% Target in 1H 2017
BOE: Housing, Consumption Stronger Than Expected
BOE: Since Aug Inflation Report, No New Information Relevant for Longer-Term Prospects of U.K. Economy
BOE Sees Business Spending Slowing More Sharply Than Consumer Spending
BOE: If Nov Outlook Broadly Consistent With Aug, Majority Of MPC Expect Further Rate Cut
SELL GBPAUD: STRAT TRADE - 7 DAYS UP P=99.746% 8TH DAY LOWERb]GBPAUD:
1. Sterlingaussie has been aggressively bid higher for the last 7-days on the back of sterling data outperforming last week, broad aussie weakness and a general recovery from lows.
2. Statistically, after analysing the last 16.5yrs of data it shows the probability of a 8th day or more of buying is 0.254% which means there is an implied 98.78% chance that we move higher today - I like these odds so will add a short here.
- If we were to see another day of buying, a 8th day, then the probability of a 9th day is even better on the sell-side odds of 99.918% so i will add to shorts if this is the case - the max number of buying days in GBPAUD has been 10d once and 9d 3 times, 8d 7 times.
3. Plus aussie 30 bill rates firmed up on monday implying only a 5% chance of a september cut down from 8% of the past week, and sterling OIS rates came off from Fridays rally after the market decided to fade last weeks data.
- Also we have found some technical price resistance at the 1.72 handle so being short here makes sense.
Trading strategy - GBPAUD Sell @1.740:
1. Short GBPAUD pretty much at market TP should be 100-200pips lower.
2. Short small and add if we move higher again on thursday - friday imo is the most likely day for a sterling sell-off as shorts are squared up on profit taking.
3. I also like being short gbpnzd and gbpusd from 1.81 and 1.325 - both have 100-200 easy pips - especially on a UK GDP miss on friday.
SHORT USDJPY LONG NZD/AUDUSD: FED KAPLAN SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFed Kaplan unsurprisingly maintained the tune of his fellow members and kept the tone hawkish, with no mention of recent data undershoots but also interestingly on the hawkish side like the others failing to mention the record highs in the US Equity markets.
From here USD is in a tricky position, a open-close below the 2yr MA may signal a broader and more sinister USD selling trend that may stay for a while (unltil Nov/ Dec) given election year, poor data and Fed unlikely to hike until Dec despite their best efforts to convince the market otherwise BOJ style - much of which near term focus now shifts to Fed Chair Yellens speech next week and the infamous GDP/ Durable goods orders, where if misses, will no doubt cause USD selling and USD STIR selling on an unparalleled scalem imo regardless of what Yellen says (100% going to be hawkish in a bid). However all may not be lost for the USD/ FOMC rate hike cycle, this USD selling could bring some needed life to near-term inflation and give the Fed the data they so badly seemingly desire, of which many are overlooking.
Nonetheless, preparing for the worst $yen shorts seem appropriate, as the US equity rally is waiting to pop anytime and markets shift into risk-off where yen and gold longs will dominate to new yearly highs. Also the HY kiwi and aussie pairs which have little in the way to stop them post RBA/ RBNZ and after an above average employment report this week leading them into a 0-data week next week and only AUD Retail Sales eyed the week after for the two; thus any next week USD selling would be matched perfectly by kiwi and aussie buying if it is the case, whilst the yen longs are likely to be a 1-4wk play as we wait for risk assets to pop.
USD Feds funds rate opt implied P of a sept rate hike currently trades at 18% vs 15%yday up on hawkish Fed speakers though the USD/ DXY got sold net on the day regardless hinting that the USD selling is becoming less of a Fed function and more of a medium-term trend/ election pricing. Dec was down on the day at 40.3% vs 41.7%yday.
Fed Kaplan Speech highlights:
-FED'S KAPLAN: AN AGING WORKFORCE IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS TO THE US ECONOMY
-FED'S KAPLAN: POLITICAL SCENE DOES NOT / SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE FED & MONETARY POLICY
-FED'S KAPLAN: THE DOLLAR HAS BEEN STRONG AND HAS HURT EXPORTS, CHINESE GROWTH COMING DOWN
-FED'S KAPLAN: BREXIT EFFECT IS MANAGEABLE IN US
-FED'S KAPLAN: THERE IS ROOM TO CHANGE RATES BUT NOT MUCH DUE TO LOW NEUTRAL RATE
NUGT set up for this week: Long expected 20-30% gains.Talks of the interest rate hike in the US will scare short term investors into buying gold.
AUDUSD ResistanceIf AU news is good, there is a chance that price action will break through the top trendline and then retracement to the line and then continue upwards. Need to wait for the Reserve Bank's sentiment on easing.
