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Interestratehike

EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid RateMorning outlook - EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid Rate As it was expected, a pressure from a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs neutralized any further attempts of the currency pair to slip to the bottom. The exchange rate even managed to from a junior ascending channel and bypass the weekly PP at 1.1918, fluctuating within it. Today will be the next day for the Euro due to announcement of the EU Minimum Bid Rate and the subsequent ECB press conference. Usually, this event leads to very strong traders’ reaction on it. In this context, the pair is expected to make a substantial advance today. Given a reaction to Draghi speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium two weeks ago, the Euro should appreciate today as well. The same direction is also seen from hourly and daily chart perspectives.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
AUDUSD: Potential Bearish Trend Continuation Trade Opportunity Hey traders what I'm looking at in this chart is a potential Bearish Trend Continuation Trading Opportunity on the AUDUSD. Price action has provided a little bullish relief after the Friday Job's report and as we get a retracement back into previous structure levels we're offered an entry opportunity for anyone looking to get involved in a bearish move. If you want more details on this trade and my fundamental views heading into this interest rate week then check the signature box below & I'm sure you can find a place where I talk about this trade in more detail. I'm off to finish up a little continued education & get ready for selection Sunday for you college basketball fans out there. Best of luck in the markets this week and as always be safe out there!
Short
by Akil_Stokes
13
The possible rate increases will affect Crude Oil?Crude oil and the US dollar index in the last six trading sessions Between June 7 and June 14, 2016, crude oil (USO) fell by ~3.7% while the US Dollar Index (UUP) rose by around 1.2%. The US Dollar Index initially fell after weak US non-farm payroll data were released on June 3, 2016. This could delay the timing of the next interest rate hike. However, after making a low of $93.59 on June 8, the dollar index started to recover. On June 8, crude oil touched its 2016 high of $51.23. The correlation between crude oil and the dollar index in the last six trading sessions was approximately -80.6%. This shows the degree of the inverse relationship between the two assets. Apart from mainstream news, recent movements in crude oil have also been fueled by the fall in the dollar index. Correlation of crude oil and the US Dollar Index since 2007 Between September 2007 and April 2013, crude oil (USO) and the US Dollar Index’s (UUP) one-month correlations were positive in only a few instances. Their correlation coefficients were largely negative for these five and a half years. What’s the correlation between crude oil and the US dollar index? Crude oil’s negative correlation with the US dollar index between September 2007 and April 2013 clearly implies that crude oil had an inverse relationship with the US Dollar Index. However, from April 2013 to date, crude oil and the dollar index’s one-month correlations have been more bidirectional. In the last three years, these one-month correlations have fluctuated between -64% and 43%. This fluctuation could indicate that fundamental drivers such as Saudi Arabia’s decision not to cut production, US shale oil producers’ cost and production dynamics, US inventory data, and other fundamental news sometimes had greater impacts on crude oil than on the dollar.
D
by sp.alexandru
Facebook's random walk down wall street We have seen continuously diverging swings for facebook for last several weeks, the new short (114.5) and long (124.95) are watch level for next two weeks until year ends! the long position is expected to fall upward to median probability, however stiff plunge can lead to downward level of S2 and S3 around (111). Due to stronger dollar as of december 14th, it is possible to see some short time corrections. Advice hold long position and stop loss at 115* For short position bet above 110* stop loss at 120* *Disclaimer: The post is subjected to educational and discussion purpose only. Any implied trade decision is not subjected to above discussion.
NASDAQ:META
by RushiPatel
More bumps in LVS roadHistorically when this indicator surpasses this level, the stock declines by at least 1%. The average decline is 10.85%. There are many fundamentals in play with this technical indicator that will support a decline. There are three levels to watch, my play is always the most conservative one. CONSERVATIVE: A simple 6% drop to around the low from Dec 8 over the next few weeks. HISTORICAL AVG: For historical drops, I try to chose a conservative milestone. Even though the average drop is more than 10%, A safe play is a drop to the 52.10 level. LAST INTEREST RATE INCREASE: Last time interest rates increased. LVS dropped more than 22% in only 10 trading days! That was exactly two weeks about a year ago. Unsure what the reaction will be this time around since most pundits agree a interest rate increase is not built in to the recent BULL market boost. The stock could drop another 22%, but my conservative play is to the psychological milestone of 48.00.
NYSE:LVSShort
by StockSignaler
Falling US T-Notes: A Major Macroeconomic IndicatorThe Bond Market. It is often overlooked by traders despite its instrumental role in the Global economy and determination of large macroeconomic trends. Major technical damage has been done across the board in the bond markets recently and this can be directly attributed to the new President of the United States. Donald Trump plans to explode an already enormous budget deficit. He plans to finance the proposed increases in government spending with low yield 30 Year fixed rate US Government Bonds rather than shorter term Treasury bills. The market is already starting to anticipate this influx of supply. The prices of US Bonds are falling and the yields are rising as a result. At this time the Federal Reserve must hike interest rates to preserve their credibility. Additionally, the US Dollar is currently appreciating relative to all other foreign currencies which erodes the purchasing power of foreigners and discourages the purchase of US Dollar denominated Bonds. Falling demand will contribute to the prices of these bonds declining much further. Unless yields rise significantly faster than inflation rises, which is extremely unlikely, the value of these bonds will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. Please leave your thoughts comments and a like if you enjoyed this post! Happy Trading and may the market move in your favor.
UShort
by IceTrading
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending: The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure. The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over. In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend) The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining). We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur. MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur. If you would like to know more about MacroView's products and services, please feel free to message us. As always, comment and post charts. We love to talk markets!
TVC:DXY
by MacroView_Research
1
Week ahead - All about US interest ratesMarkets appeared to have changed their tune regarding Fed interest rate outlook after US data released on Friday showed retail sales in April jumped by most in a year. Even before the data release, a significant minority was expecting Fed to move rates in June/September if wage price inflation strengthens. The week ahead is a busy one for the markets as US CPI and Fed minutes will provide clues on inflation and on how fast the central bank may push up rates this year. It is a busy week for UK as well, with CPI, Employment data and Retail Sales scheduled for release. US data - CPI and Industrial Production is due for release on Tuesday, FOMC April Meeting Minutes Wednesday and a raft of Fed speakers with Dudley Thursday. Regional PMI indices, initial jobless claims and housing data is due as well. UK data - CPI is due on Tuesday, Employment data Wednesday and Retail Sales Thursday. Eurozone – Quiet week ahead, with just CPI and trade balance scheduled for release. Japan – GDP due on Thursday. Australia - RBA May board minutes are due on Tuesday and the employment report Thursday. China – Dismal retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment was released over the weekend. Dollar bulls will be glued to the economic calendar this week as a strong rebound in monthly inflation could increase the odds of a Fed June rate hike. Furthermore, a clue regarding a possible rate hike in June could come via April Fed minutes due on Wednesday. G7 meet in Tokyo on Friday Another global event - G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet Friday would be watched out by traders. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew is widely expected to tell Japanese officials to stop threatening to depreciate the yen amid. Note that aggressive monetary easing (intended to weaken currency) by Bank of Japan and other central banks could easily force Fed to delay rate hikes despite improvement in the domestic data. Hence, strong words from US could bring easing madness to a halt (at least temporarily) and pave way for Fed rate hike. Iron price is falling again… and so is Yuan Iron ore prices fell 5.2% on Friday taking the total weekly loss to 13% amid steel oversupply concerns and regulators announced measures to curb speculative trading in iron ore. Prices hit a 16-month high in April before losing ground. Prices now hover around 6-week low. Weakness could persist this week, given the weak China data released over the weekend. This could also add pressure on the Aussie, which is silently losing ground over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Chinese Yuan is weakening again. On Friday, the offshore currency, also known as CNH, hit the lowest since in three months as the People’s Bank of China set the Yuan reference rate against the dollar at 6.5246, the weakest since March 4. As per Xinhua news, “The central parity rate of the Chinese currency Renminbi, or the Yuan, weakened 97 basis points to 6.5343 against the US dollar today”. However, the decline so far has been moderate. Moreover, markets are slowly digesting the fact that Yuan is likely to be on a slow and steady declining trend. Nevertheless, decline in Yuan puts downward pressure on other EM/Asian currencies and Japanese Yen as well. UK corporate results due this week Monday – British Land Company Tuesday – Land Securities Group Wednesday – Burberry Group, SABMiller Thursday – National Grid
by TipTVFinance
Downside Risk Potential For The EuroThere is downside risk for the euro as price action for EURUSD failed to close above 1.1342, essentially creating an asymmetric double top with the fizzled mid-February rally. The pair looks to fade back to the 200-day EMA near 1.1108. The rally in the dollar following its steep declines last week could cause a more pronounced slide as long as the DXY remains supported (92.50 remains a key near-term support level). Next, traders are saw bunds bid while the U.S. 10Y remained rather muted, causing spreads to become the widest since last December. The U.S. 10Y has held a relatively strong negative correlation with the dollar index going back to last August. If the dollar remains supported, there will likely be dampened demand for U.S. paper outside of any significant headline risk that could spark demand. If price action does not confirm a downtrend break above 1.1342, the euro will likely slide against the dollar and challenge the minor uptrend created in December. S/R levels remain key targets for advancement and pullbacks. Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
Gold Trends Near Resistance After Consecutive Session GainsCurrently, gold is budding up against intraday resistance, following two consecutive sessions of gains on a weaker dollar. As the rate hike came and went, many – even those who ushered in the hike with excitement – are beginning to wonder if the Federal Reserve waited far too long to boost interest rates. The yellow metal had began its two-day rally by finding bidders on the weekly support level of $1,046. Even though gold has seen nice gains following the FOMC, the paradigm has been to sell rallies despite whether or not it fundamentally makes sense. According to the Commitment of Traders data, large speculators are the most short gold ever. This could cause for a disastrous 2016 for hedge funds if fundamentals for owning gold improve, as we have already seen what happen when crowded trades unravel in the euro. On the four-hour chart, gold is hovering just under $1,080 and the 200-4H EMA, which will act as dynamic resistance until a confirmed breakout occurs. Price action is trading at the upper-end of a symmetrical triangle, while a minor descending support within the pattern is found (dotted line). Within the pattern, support is found at $1,074 and $1,066, while a confirmed breakout could signal a move higher to $1,088 and $1,095, potentially $1,111, per ounce. If gold prices do see selling pressure and close beneath trend support, weekly support levels will remain key. $1,000 and $955 are technical targets. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
5
Trading the Fed rate decision with EUR/USD - scenario study The scenarios are quite simple – A 25bps rate hike, with a dovish Dot chart could push the EUR/USD pair lower to 1.0750 levels. A 25bps rate hike, with a hawkish Dot chart (less probability) could push the EUR/USD pair to 1.05 levels. A less than 25bps hike could see a drop to 1.0750 followed by a quick fire correction. The dip could be utilised to initiate long EUR/$ positions. In case, we do not have a rate hike, be prepared to jump into longs at the first sight as the pair will head towards 1.15-1.17
by fxstraderomi
Precious Metals Jump Ahead of FOMCPrecious metals jump higher ahead of today’s FOMC minutes and potentially the first rate hike in the U.S. since 2007. Why? It’s most likely contributed to the fact that the majority of market participants believe Fed Chair Janet Yellen will remain extremely dovish post-rate increase. A dovish hike may be a hard sell , as Nomura suggests, but precious metals may have already priced in a specific rate trajectory. The U.S. dollar carry trade is the most crowded trade and by significant margins, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey of Global Fund Managers. If Yellen choreographs a dovish hike, the dollar trade could begin to unwind causing relief in battered commodities; and gold and silver will benefit. Gold has been trading in a range, and price action is forming a small, symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The results of the FOMC, and surrounding rhetoric, will pave the way for the yellow metal. If there is a more hawkish tone, gold could trade lower to $1,035, while a more dovish tone may send gold to restest resistance at $1,194/97. Silver is a little tricky because it is more tied in with economic growth than monetary policy. The beaten down commodity will see relief if the dollar bulls take some off the table, but poor economic data may still be a hindered to silver. If inflation were to pick up, consider that bullish for silver. If commodities can get a boost, expect silver to trade higher to $14.52 with the potential of $15.30 (highly dependent on the outcome of the dollar). Conversely, selling pressure could cause silver to test significant support levels at $13.12. Please follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
COMEX:GC1!
by CommoditiesTrader
1
This industry is primed to suffer more than any other.The chart above shows assorted real estate stocks, they aren't cherry picked and were random (except RAIT Financial), but you can see the trend. Get the hell out of real estate. Seriously if you have any real estate or RAIT stocks it is a great time to sell. This housing market has gone nuts from the years of 0%. Rental vacancy rates are at a 30 year low and rental prices are through the roof (pardon the pun), with houses that would have a $700 mortgage going for $1200+ with ease. Housing prices are way up too and are around pre-crisis levels. NO I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS ANOTHER HOUSING BUBBLE. I'm not stupid, c'mon. Real estate stocks certainly haven't gone crazy in recent years, given residual investor uneasiness about the sector. However, many symbols have made some nice gains since '08 and they are going to get hammered. As you can see on the chart all these symbols are RAITs and real estate and they are sliding already. A rate hike, even if the FOMC says it's only .01%, will be seen as the start of higher interest rates and thus a decrease in home sales. So get some put options on the sector, I'd say go 4-12 months out with strikes 15%+ lower than last price, it'll pay off. Even if Yellen announces no rate hike in Dec., everyone thinks it's coming, and that's all it takes. The housing market really does need it though, prices are getting a bit too high and rental prices are insane high. Also, don't confuse real estate stocks and bank/financial stocks, banks will benefit from the rate hike (increased lending and profits from interest).
RShort
by RyanMartin
1
AUDUSD Near-Term OutlookThe Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise rates. Before we jump off the deep-end, I noted following the higher than expected employment data that Australian employment from month-to-month is volatile and should be taken with a grain of salt. I have witnessed a gain of 70,000 one month followed by a loss of 20,000 the next. Furthermore, wage growth is rapidly contracting. Traders watch central banks fumbling with whether to continue on a path to ease or not. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased their key benchmark by 100 bps on a series of strong, albeit short-lived, data only to reverse course in less than a year’s time. AUDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4H chart leading into the RBA policy minutes on Monday. If the RBA can hold off on further easing, the pair could set up for a potential near-term trend break. Near-term resistance is located at .7163 and .7217, while if the RBA hints at further easing, AUDUSD could continue its path lower .7070. The week is chalk full of U.S. data, which could aid the Aussie dollar in either direction. If U.S. data is weak enough and triggers greenback selling, the pair could achieve near-term resistance targets. Moving average activity is looking like it is setting up for a 20/50-EMA bullish convergence, but until then they are merely minor support levels. Intraday momentum, as measured by the ADX, is rather weak at 14. The +/- DMI is suggesting bullish price action is still there, but the RBA could quickly jawbone a change. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
HYG Leading SPY Lower?Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend strength, is beginning to fall. This is interesting because HYG tends to flow with the SPX (and SPY). As equities had a sharp correction so does high-yield The opposite is also true, and junk bonds rallied along side equities. SPY also acts more "violently" when prices diverge greatly. According to ETF Daily News, roughly $10.7 billion was injected into U.S. equity ETFs last month, while $8.3 billion of inflows were seen in U.S. corporate bond ETFs - the largest monthly inflow recorded. HYG took in just over $5.5 billion. This is important because today's trader shows the epitome of herd behavior: all cramming into a few trade ideas. So, when that idea doesn't material, traders flee and the response is not exactly orderly. Price action is on a few minor support levels, but there is bearish EMA, RSI and DMI momentum. ADX looks to be moving upwards supporting negative price action. If the SPY breaks down lower (I'm expecting mid-160k NFP tomorrow), this could spell trouble for HYG. CommoditiesTrader now on InvestFeed: beta.investfeed.com Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
AMEX:HYG
by CommoditiesTrader
4