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Australian Dollar holds up after RBA rate cut | FX ResearchEarlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. The accompanying communication leaned to the hawkish side with respect to the outlook on future rate cuts, which kept the Australian dollar propped up. As for Fed rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in 40 basis points of cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, risk sentiment has been improving in recent days due to an alleviation of stress around tariffs and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Key standouts on Tuesday's calendar include UK employment data, a speech from BOE Governor Bailey, German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment, Canada inflation data, New York Empire manufacturing, NAHB housing, and Fed speak. That's all for now. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
$Meta and U.S equity Bull Run Almost Finished? Was just having a little fun before bed and brainstorming on the NASDAQ:META chart. Our darling as of late. I love trying to find similarities and patterns between macro swings and cycles. Human psychology and business cycles have a way of repeating themselves pretty often. As they say, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. This recent melt up reminds a lot of the price action NASDAQ:META saw in 2021-2022. RSI overbought both times, currently approaching the 2.618 fib when connecting them to major high and low points. Decreasing volume on the moves up. There's a lot of other data to support a bear market may be on the horizon: Weak housing data/stocks (I do see some outlier stocks in the housing sector). The yield curve un-inversion which typically precedes major bear markets 6-12 months after un-inversion. The dollar seems to want to keep going higher. However it has shown a lot of weakness here lately which could help fuel the rest of the bull market. The unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade has seemed to play a big factor in U.S equities as of late. Every time the BOJ hikes interest rates, a lot of U.S. equities see pretty sizable bearish volatility shortly after. Being the darling that NASDAQ:META has become, once this trend line breaks it will be a signal that everyone should be taking note of in my opinion. I think the risk of a bear market increases dramatically. Maybe we get a shallow or 2022 style bear market next year and continue to make one last lag into new highs in 2027. Here are some ideas that could support that theory: China seems to be coming out of a depression-style bear market and is beginning to inject liquidity into their economy. This could help give U.S. equities a little more juice to run higher for longer chips could make a major comeback and fuel SPY/QQQ higher for longer. Names like Google, Tesla and Amazon can continue to show strength and we could see a rotation into them. Maybe we get some more significant quantum breakthroughs with the help of AI. These are things to keep in mind, but I think the probabilities of this this bull market we've enjoyed since 2008 is A LOT closer to the end than the beginning. I base most of my sentiment off the 18.6 year real estate/land cycle theory that I have been following since 2022. I also give a lot of credibility to U.S. yield curve un-inversions sending shockwaves through the global economic system. What do you guys and gals think?
NASDAQ:META
by ChazzyFreshh
Watch NZDUSD and AUDUSD because of RBNZ & RBA next weekThe RBA and the RBNZ are expected to deliver rate decisions next week, so there might be an slight opportunity for the bulls to capture a move higher, before those Banks deliver. Also, the current weakness in DXY could give a small helping hand for the bulls. That said, the positivity might be short-lived, as both Banks are expected to announce cuts, with the RBNZ potentially going for the bigger 50 bps cut. Let's see what happens. MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD FX_IDC:AUDUSD FX_IDC:NZDUSD 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
$BTC BITCOIN TRADERS EYE ‘HUGE’ US JOBS DATA AS BTC RISKS $95K BITCOIN TRADERS EYE ‘HUGE’ US JOBS DATA AS BTC RISKS $95K DIP 1/7 Bitcoin is hovering around GETTEX:97K , after dropping 3.5% yesterday. 🚀📉 Now, all eyes are on the upcoming US January jobs report—could it ignite the next major BTC move? 2/7 Prediction markets signal a 28% chance of a “huge beat” (300K+ jobs) vs. Wall Street’s 169K forecast. 📊 A stronger-than-expected jobs print might fuel more Fed hawkishness, pressuring risk assets like BTC. 3/7 Market Sentiment: If job numbers soar, the Fed could keep rates higher for longer. ⬆️🏦 CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 14.5% chance for a 0.25% cut in March, meaning rate reductions are still unlikely. 4/7 Price & Liquidity: BTC sits in a narrow trading range. 💹 Traders see liquidity around $95K—we could dip there before another leg up. 5/7 BTC is “pinned” until a catalyst—like the jobs data—sparks real volatility. ⚡️ Will an oversized payroll number push BTC toward $95K or trigger a surprise bounce? 6/7 Where do you see BTC heading after the jobs data drop? 1️⃣ Dip to $95K 2️⃣ Sideways chop 3️⃣ Break above $100K 4️⃣ Something else? Vote below! 👇🗳️ 7/7 With strong job numbers, the Fed might keep its foot on the brake 🏁, challenging $BTC. But if the data disappoints, a relief rally could be on the table. Keep your risk management in check!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DCAChampion
1
USDJPY - BoJ Interest Rate Decision?!Here is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 155.800 . Our scenarios are in play after the BoJ (Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. Scenario 1: BUYS -We broke above 156.700 . With the break of 156.700 we can expect a possible move up to 158.748. With a a further break of this KL (Key Level) we can expect more upside on the pair potentially reaching top of the long-term range sitting at 161.820. Scenario 2: SELLS -We broke below 154.881 . If we break bellow 154.881 we can expect more downside on the pair even up to 152.000. With breaks of this level we could see even lower levels sitting at around 149.394 or “bottom of the long-term range”. IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 161.820; top of the long-term range - 158.748; breaks above would result in more upside - 154.881; breaks below would result in sells - 152.817; breaks below confirming lower levels - 152.030; breaks below confirming lower levels - 149.394; bottom of the long-term range Personal opinion: It’s not advised to enter into sells or buys before we have a clear break or the BoJ Interest Rate Decision data out. For now we are patiently waiting on either breaks to the upside or breaks to the downside. More volatility on the pair is expected tomorrow so be careful. KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking above 156.700 would confirm buys. - USDJPY breaking below 154.881 would confirm sells. - BoJ Interest Rate Decision is tomorrow. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
1
$GBPUSD DOLLAR EDGES UP, STERLING DIPS & YEN STEADIESDOLLAR EDGES UP, STERLING DIPS & YEN STEADIES 1/7 Dollar’s on a slight uptick today but still near recent lows. 💵🔎 All eyes are on upcoming U.S. economic data—could it shake the greenback out of its range? 2/7 Sterling falls as traders brace for a possible Bank of England rate cut. 💷❓ Recent economic signals point toward a policy adjustment—markets are watching closely! 3/7 The yen hit an 8-week high overnight after a BoJ board member hinted at further rate increases. ⬆️🇯🇵 But it pulled back in European trade, settling into a steady groove. 4/7 Why the mild dollar strength? 1️⃣ Easing trade war fears 2️⃣ Anticipation of Friday’s big U.S. data drop Investors remain cautious, but a surprise on the data front could shift sentiment fast. 5/7 Sterling’s dip reflects the BoE’s potential pivot. 👀💼 A rate cut could lower borrowing costs, but also typically pressures a currency downward. 6/7 Which currency do you think will see the biggest move after the BoE decision? 1️⃣ Dollar 2️⃣ Sterling 3️⃣ Yen 4️⃣ Something else? Vote below! 🗳️👇 7/7 Uncertain times call for tight risk management! ⚠️💹 Currency markets hinge on central bank signals—stay vigilant and nimble with your trades.
Long
by DCAChampion
1
"the top is in", "for the rates"gm, markets tend to be forward looking, and based off my understanding + the chart data, it appears the top is in for the rates. i predict the market will begin to price in future rate cuts and start bringing the us10y down. this will open the door to a "risk on" enviroment for big tech, as well as risk assets like crypto . --- the count on the us10y is relatively simple. 5 waves up from the 2020 lows. predicting 3 waves down into the year ahead. the low on the us10y should coincide with a high in the global liquidity index,,, which is set to peak into the end first month of 2026. 🌙 --- ps. check out the last us10y update from 2 years ago via:
TVC:US10YShort
by notoriousbids
$EUNITR - Europe Interest Rates $EUNITR (January/2025) source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by 25 bps in January 2025, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15%. This move reflects the ECB’s updated inflation outlook, with price pressures easing in line with projections. While domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating, and corporate profits are absorbing some inflationary effects. Despite persistent tight financing conditions, the rate cut is expected to gradually ease borrowing costs for firms and households. The ECB remains data-driven and has not committed to a predetermined rate path, emphasizing a cautious approach to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% target.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (January 2025) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed kept the funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range as expected, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024. The Fed showed more optimism about the labor market and noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated, removing the reference to ongoing progress toward the 2% target. The Fed also said the economic outlook is uncertain, and is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Silver/Gold Ratio signals Lower Interest Rates AheadWhen OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) does well relative to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold), it means the economy is strong and interest rates tend to rise when that happens. The opposite is also true. When Silver is weak relative to Gold, interest rates tend to fall. See how it works historically? The 1997 drop in rates when the silver/gold ratio shot up is the rare exception Why does it work? Silver is an economic metal used in industry and gold is a precious metal which used to be used for technology in the 1970's. Well - it shows now that rates should be going down because the economy is flat, weak or recessionary. However you want to label it, the economy can afford lower interest rates. This LONG TERM indicator has worked quite well and deserves to be on your list of indicators to track the likely path of interest rates. OF COURSE, the more important factor is WHO is at the head of the Fed. Lower rates would make sense especially if the profligate Government spending machine slows down its aggressive spending. The global war on covid didn't help and the clear message that the market is telling us is that we needed to slow down the price hikes but we now have a US Gov't deeply in debt and struggling to be able to justify lower rates. Here's to clarity on the future moves by the Fed, which if you were just looking at this indicator you would be cutting rates steadily for the foreseeable future. Cheers, Tim 11:47AM EST January 28, 2025
OANDA:XAGUSD
by timwest
17
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 3.6% (December/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in a year (6.4% vs 4.8% in November), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.7% vs 9.9%) and gas cost (5.6% vs 3.5%) increased at the fastest rate in four months with the absence of energy subsidies since May. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.9%), clothing (2.9% vs 2.6%), transport (1.1% vs 0.9%), furniture and household utensils (3.0% vs 3.7%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.6%), recreation (4.0% vs 4.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-2.1% vs -3.0%) and education (-1.0% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 16-month high of 3.0%, up from 2.7% in November and matching consensus. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.6%, the highest figure in 14 months.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
The Top 3 Catalyst Of Forex TradingSpotting a breakout is a good strategy because its something that I have always wanted to learn how to do when I started forex. - Now you need to be careful when you are trading forex options and always remember to calculate your risk levels because there is always risk associated with these types of trade and remember to take profit as well Now in about 2 weeks time the biggest catalyst in the forex market is going to take place. Think of these before you trade CAPITALCOM:EURCAD In this forex pair there are 3 catalysts to consider: -The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision -The unemployment numbers -The GDP numbers It's important to take note of the catalyst as you build your own trading strategy either way, you can learn from the one am using its called the rocket booster strategy to learn more about it Rocket boost this content right now Disclaimer: Trading is risky please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies. And remember to use a simulation trading account before you trade with real money.
Long
by lubosi
Where is the Stock Market Heading? Forecast & Analysis thread!Where is the Stock Market Heading? 📈📉 Stock Market Forecast & Analysis🧵 In this thread, we’re breaking it down for you: -TA on TVC:VIX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM TVC:VIX -Economic Data -Insights & Predictions Let's dive in friends! Not financial advice NASDAQ:QQQ Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box which is my personal strategy I use with the Wr%. As long as we stay within the confines of this Box we will continue to climb higher on the Q's outside of pullbacks. Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Held volume shelf -Wicked back above 9ema (BULLISH) -Ascending triangle patterns Measured Move has not been realized yet. $580 -Created a Hammer Candle which is a reversal candle found at the bottom of downtrends, pullback, or corrections. Had a Normal 6% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's! TVC:VIX First up we have the Volatility AMEX:SPY Index which spiked up due to the FED dropping a FUD Nuke on the markets heading and causing the largest one day volatility spike in 2024. But, as you see below we have fallen in line since that day. We have created a bearish flag pattern and broken down through the base and should continue to flush lower. Keep in mind 60-70% of breakouts (either direction) come back to retest the point of the breakout area. Could see this happen with FOMC minutes being released this Wednesday. AMEX:SPY Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. -Wicked off previous resistance flipped into support Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box and thriving! $650 2025 PT! Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Wicked back above smoothing line -Created a Hammer Candle right above 9ema Had a Normal 4.35% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's on the SPY! AMEX:IWM As I've stated in other posts the CAPITALCOM:RTY typically runs and plays catchup to the SPY and QQQ towards the end of bull runs and before the big corrections or crash comes. Weekly Chart Analysis: -At the bottom of an uptrend channel -Sitting on a massive volume shelf -At a massive S/R area -At the retest point for the Multi-Year CupnHandle breakout! With a Measured Move up to $306. Thats the same measurement of the CAPITALCOM:RTY catching back up to the $SPY. ECONOMICS:USCIR - Core Inflation Rate YoY Inflation is dead and falling like a rock! I don't hold any weight into what the FED was saying about inflation when he was the Grinch and spreading FUD. The FED is always to slow to do what is needed to be done and right now that is to continue to cut before things in the economy start to break due to higher rates. They raised rates to SLOW and they are choosing to cut rates to SLOW! What I'm seeing is we will continue to fall with small pockets of bounce backs in inflation on the overall down trend to sub 3 then sub 2 as you can see on the chart with the yellow levels. Overall Economic numbers are very positive and have been beating what the experts have been forecasting in December. We have some more data coming out this week and we will see if that trend continues. Like I said in a separate post, the FED has been talking about a boogeyman and spreading FUD but the DATA and NUMBERS show the BOOGEYMAN isn't REAL! Thanks for reading friend! If you enjoyed this analysis and forecast of the markets please like/ follow/ share if you feel I deserved it! ALL SOCIALS/ LINKS IN SIGNATURE BELOW AND PROFILE.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RonnieV29
4
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods. 2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions. BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets. The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods. 3. Methodology and Data Overview To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events. The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation. Contract Specifications: o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES): Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index. Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change). o Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin. Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change). These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract. 4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections. Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements. 5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate? The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors: Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions. Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align. Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements. This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows. 6. Forward-Looking Implications Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders: Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other. Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies. Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets. Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach. 7. Risk Management Considerations While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings: Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses. Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES. Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk. Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships. A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully. 8. Conclusion The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts. While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield. Basis = 10 Year SMA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction. *** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx