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interest rates and housing Australia.ECONOMICS:AUMR A visualization of how house prices react against interest rates rises other than the obvious divergence where rates get cheap and people will spend more. I haven't made any predictions, there are a lot of moving parts in the system at the moment. CPI being a big one on everyone lips, affordability, availability, sustainability, buzz words right ha A lot of people got money really cheap and after the 5 year fixed terms what is the flow on effect, have people stopped excessive spending and in turn the is a down turn in GDP jobs but CPI still climbs. Will tenants pay for all the rate hikes if the houses are not worth it? will people try and interest only? left with the prospect of selling will prices go too low while we are still in need of more houses to curb demand? ordinary interest increases appeared to be up to 60% over time and we are looking at a event where we are already 3x that. I used info from another chart to have more complete data for the interest, I should have done the house prices too. ( If someone knows how to import stuff like this speak up, that was a ball ache) Surprised tradingviews data was not complete. datawrapper.dwcdn.net Have your say. feed back is welcome. Might do updates if i"m feeling inspired.
ECONOMICS:AUMR
by S12spring
Inflation and Business Cycle: What will happen next?Inflation has been rising aggressively since 2021. It accelerated from 2% to hit an all-time high of 9.1% in June 2022. As inflation rose, central banks like the Fed raised interest rates to control inflation . But this effort to control inflation, on one hand made money more expensive for the industries and on the other hand pushed consumers to reduce their spendings. Many economists had already predicted rising inflation and its impeding worst impact on the global economy and stock markets. Still, there are fears everywhere that bear markets could persist and even a further decline is likely. Here the basic question arises that must be understood: WHAT IS INFLATION & WHY DOES IT OCCUR? In fact, inflation occurs whenever demand for goods and services increases while supply remains constrained. Growth is everyone's dream... To capitalize on this aspiration, banks provide cash at low interest rates to support growth, but unfortunately this cash is used by people to buy luxuries like cars, electronics and homes. Cars need fuel and metals, electronics need high R&D spending and skilled human capital, and houses need building materials. Pressure on luxury items leads to price increases. Technically speaking, when demand accelerates faster than supply, it has a net effect on price. This phenomenon is referred to as the law of demand, which states: "If more people want to buy something, when there is limited supply, the price of that thing will be higher." (The same law of demand applies in the stock market: as demand for stocks increases, their price increases.) After Covid-19, global demand for goods and services began to normalize (increase). But to boost growth, which had been severely hampered in Covid times, banks made easy loans available at attractive interest rates. The resulting increase in the supply of money in the markets stimulated consumer spending. Ideally, if growth had been at a sustained pace and in the productive sectors, inflation would not have occurred. But that never happens - a phenomenon that creates the business cycle. A business cycle has phases of expansion and contraction. We are currently in the contraction phase of the business cycle - inflation is still high, interest rates and yields are unbearable, and industrial performance has declined. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? - Unbearable prices will force consumers to reduce their spending/demand - High interest rates and reduced demand will reduce industry revenues and profits - Equity markets will continue to show poor performance But good times will come again! When the market bottoms out in the business cycle, expansion begins. This will be an ideal time to invest in growth and value stocks.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by starringinvestors
TLT: Trade Idea Before More Fed QEThe signal I was waiting for to start buying bonds was whenever the Federal Reserve stopped or slowed raising interest rates. The Fed held another rate policy meeting this week and only raised the Federal Funds Rate by +.25% instead of the +.75% that had been the trend. We've gone from seeing a +.50% hike in Dec, to +.25% in Jan to +.25% this week after 4 prior straight +.75% hikes in mid to late 2022. Now that banks are failing and layoffs are starting to tick up, this weeks rate hike was likely the last for a bit unless inflation doesn't stay flat or go down before the next Fed rate meeting. You can search "2023 FOMC meetings" for the full schedule. My thought here is that within the next 12-18 months the Federal Reserve will lower rates and begin buying treasuries again(aka money printing), and I think the time to start front-running that trade in to bonds is now for those who like to accumulate a larger position over time. The best way for the average trader or phone app investor to get into bonds is via "TLT", the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, which tracks the 20-year treasury bond price rather than the interest rate on the 20-year bond. As rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Right now I'm betting on rates having topped out(or close to it) and that bond prices are going to go back up over the next year or so as recession fears kick in and stock prices go lower. We've had a deep and long yield curve inversion to boot and those almost always precede a US recession. I have a recent post showing the yield curve inversion vs stocks vs US recessions for reference. TLT price is trading at decade lows and holding above $100 after a dip down to $90. Seeing the price of any asset hold above nice round numbers is always a good sign, psychologically traders like round numbers. The lower PPO momentum indicator is showing signs of a potential reversal in momentum from negative to short-term positive, and this is a monthly chart so it would be a significant event. A bullish crossover is what we want to see which is when the green signal line crosses above the purple base line in the lower PPO indicator. That would indicate a short-term return to bullish momentum on a monthly basis.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PrepForProfit
4
Correcting the News. Back to 1.07922? 🐻Check Description for Value ⬇️. Anyways, Looking for lower prices here. Where we have a move created by news which is corrected in the next few trading sessions down right almost to where it began. Simple trade idea. I've studied this is in the past. I have multiple screenshots in a library that documents this exact move. Doesn't matter what the news is necessarily. What matters for the most part is the market structure after price spikes. What kind of market structure can we observe after we spike? In the succeeding sessions after the news, what is price doing?
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Additional short ideaHi Traders Before continuing reading, please check out my first Bitcoin short idea. This scenario builds on that idea. Bitcoin has been consolidating high for the past week, yet markets are filled with bearish news. After our first rejection of the 28500 resistance area, Bitcoin looks set to move lower. If you missed the entry on 28500, here is my game plan to find another possible entry somewhere around 28k. Here is my Game Plan: - Bitcoin needs to consolidate further - Touch on the 28k area is needed for this setup to be activated - Clear rejection of 28k, if we push above 28k we might be moving higher, so I will be looking for an entry in the 27.9k area - Entry at a clear break of the trendline - Price movement needs to be erratic to the downside Please make sure to follow me on Tradingview for future setups. Have a fantastic day legends. Best CH
Short
by TraderCHgold
SPX (1D) Midterm setup - BEAR Market chance is raisingHello traders, investors and other speculators :) Yesterday before Jerome Powell spoke, markets we underestimating chance of 25bos hike. Now it seems like we can expect another 25bps hike in May. With current conditions there are increasing odds for bear market coming as SP is falling closer to sub 3900 support levels. Also notice rejection from exponential moving averages (EMA 55 and EMA 200 at 1D chart). Those are not good signs. More red flags come from indicators RSI (rejection below resistance) and MACD which is down ticking again. With expectations of S&P EPS falling ... P/E Will be considered overvalued and risky. While you can earn up to 4,5-5% p.a. by just holding government bonds. So why the hell should S&P 500 go up from this point? If 3900 bps support break, than we are heading MUCH LOWER. Brace yourself.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Longevity_Contrarian
Favoring sells But sitting on Sidelines. Interest Rates⛔-->->EU I like the Risk to reward to the downside. However, and similar to Feb 1st Announcement, we could rip upwards to the Moon similar to first landing on the moon. We'll See what happens as we sit on the sidelines. Beware of position sizing during intraday scalping 1Hr after announcement. Which I have found typically to be the best time to trade surrounding news trading. Price is currently sitting underneath our 1.08 Daily zone. If we decide to move up our next target will be 1.08539 Daily Level. Other than that we have rather clean traffic heading up on the 4hr. If the market determines that pessimism is strong enough, we will respect our daily level here at 1.08, and leave a wick of liquidity catching breakout traders to the downside. Going down, I can observe us reaching 1.074 Daily level relatively easy once again. Anticpating crazy volatility here. Those are expecatations but we could be disappointed. Manage expectations. Safe trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Grand City Properties: Oversold dusted jewel? Maybe not yet.Back in Oct 13, 2022 I made this analysis: Compared to Vonovia, Grand City has a double better debt position than its big competitor. Earnings payout are 23% and cash payout 64%. Vonovia's respective figures are 67% and 61%. Debt quity ratio at 57% is highly different from Vonovia's at 117%. Grand City may experiment higher costs of debt refinancing in 2023 but not as much as Vonovia in relative numbers. Grand City is able to breath better within this whole interest rates hike environment than mostly any other REIT. Sometimes, it's better to aim at 1,5B valued companies than 15B valued ones. But then, on March 16th, 2023 GYC presented its FY 2022 results. And my analysis changed to this one: Unfortunately, Grand City decided not to pay 2022 dividend due to macroeconomic uncertainty. The results were somewhat weak even though positive. I see GYC going down to 4.42€ in the next months. Better to avoid January and February 2013 lows were around 4.42€. Current PER is 9.51 and dividend yield has been cut to 0% in 2022. Interest rates keep rising at the moment and before the SVB, FRC, Credit Suisse fall; investors thought they would go up until 5.5-6%. Even though debt is lower than its bigger competitor Vonovia and according to GYC website the company’s debt have a 95% interest hedging ratio, which is expected to reduce to 91% as some interest rate hedging matures throughout 2023; in an environment of increasing interest rates, investors could switch from REITs to bonds. The fact that GYC cut its dividend to 0, may look very disciplined and responsible. But a REIT who does not pay dividend is no longer attractive in my opinion. Whether it will be at 10-15€ in the next 4-5 years, that depends on: inflation stabilisation, interest rates beginning to drop at comfortable levels (1-3%), reduced banking crisis uncertainty and reduced recession fears, among other factors. It's also important to track the FFO and AFFO and compare these two metrics with competitors in order to see if the stock has been oversold or overbought. If Central Banks stop raising interest rates or inflation drops further, then REITs will be one of the first sectors to recover as they may be experiencing overselling. When I analysed GYC back in Oct, I saw good fundamental reasons to invest in it. Macroeconomic uncertainty is now overweighting those fundamental reasons. But when every aspect in the macroeconomic environment seemed to doom the expectations of GYC stock, I analysed the fundamentals of the company: Analysis FY 2022 results: Net Debt/EBITDA = 11.4x. AFFO diminished -1.26%. FFO/per share +3% at 1.14€. P/FFO (Today) = 7/1.14 = 6.14. Guidance FY 2023 FFO/share to decrease -13.16% max to 0.99€/share. P/FFO (2023e) = 7/0.99 = 7.07. Sector P/FFO for Residential REITs in US has been moving steadily between 17 and 25 in 2010-2018 period (S&P Global Market Intelligence, Nareit 2018). GYC is clearly undervalued already. Technical aspect doesn’t show any signs of recovery yet. RSI(14) suggesting completely oversold but selling volume keeps increasing. CONCLUSION We may be set to turnaround very soon on GYC. However, the fact that a REIT does not pay dividends is something clearly penalising the stock value. Therefore, I would still wait and see how the market develops and if GYC reaches 4.40€ level, maybe it could act as a historic support level from January 2013 and bounce back upwards from there.
XETR:GYCShort
by alexinve
FED Interest Rates and it's mechanism BINANCE:BTCUSDT In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions' reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets. The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as the effective median interest rate of overnight federal funds transactions during the previous business day. It is published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The federal funds target range is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule. The Federal Reserve uses open market operations to bring the effective rate into the target range. The target range is chosen in part to influence the money supply in the U.S. economy Financial institutions are obligated by law to hold liquid assets that can be used to cover sustained net cash outflows. Among these assets are the deposits that the institutions maintain, directly or indirectly, with a Federal Reserve Bank. An institution that is below its required liquidity can address this temporarily by borrowing from institutions that have Federal Reserve deposits in excess of the requirement. The interest rate that a borrowing bank pays to a lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the effective federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee regularly sets a target range for the federal funds rate according to its policy goals and the economic conditions of the United States. It directs the Federal Reserve Banks to influence the rate toward that range with open market operations or adjustments to their own deposit interest rates. Although this is commonly referred to as "setting interest rates," the effect is not immediate and depends on the banks' response to money market conditions. Separately, the Federal Reserve lends directly to institutions through its discount window, at a rate that is usually higher than the federal funds rate. Future contracts in the federal funds rate trade on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and the financial press refer to these contracts when estimating the probabilities of upcoming FOMC actions. When the FOMC wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities. When additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, the price of borrowed funds – the federal funds rate – falls. Conversely, when the Committee wishes to increase the federal funds rate, they will instruct the Desk Manager to sell government securities, thereby taking the money they earn on the proceeds of those sales out of circulation and reducing the money supply. When supply is taken away and everything else remains constant, the interest rate will normally rise. The Federal Reserve has responded to a potential slow-down by lowering the target federal funds rate during recessions and other periods of lower growth. In fact, the Committee's lowering has recently predated recessions, in order to stimulate the economy and cushion the fall. Reducing the federal funds rate makes money cheaper, allowing an influx of credit into the economy through all types of loans.
Education
by INVESTRONE
3
Looking towards next daily zone 1.08 before Sellers 🏳️Wicks Don't Lie. Momentum Doesn't Lie. Looking for Higher prices. The Reasons Why. 1. Weekly/Daily is Bullish 2. 4hr Closed solid bullish 3. We wait for healthy pullback to a 4hr level 4. 4Hr zones get respected frequently 5. End of Last week Weekly Candle Pulled Back hard and so far this week we have seen a confirmation of that momentum. There is alot of fear and pessimism. It is more important to follow price instead of imposing what we believe will happen onto the market.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
3
$BTC $170K by Halloween 2023, believe it. If the same technicals of growth, volatility, and previous lows and highs math estimates are correct, then as strange as it may sound, Bitcoin is 23% likely to reach $170,000 by Oct 31st 2023. Not to mention the fertile environment for Bitcoin given; 1. The recent turmoil in the regional banking world and the lack of trust of the banking system being reinforced. 2. The decline of BTC in 2022 was arguably related to the massive interest rate hikes by the Fed, and they (The FED) are now likely to stop raising rates due to #1. 3. The correlation btwn Gold and Bitcoin has re-emerged in recent weeks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jgeno
SP500 vs FedFund vs Unemp vs Yield CurveUS stocks vs the Federal Reserve Funding Rate vs the unemployment rate vs 10yr-2yr treasury yields. When the 10yr vs 2yr yield goes negative it means that a 2yr treasury bond is yielding more interest than a 10yr treasury bond and it is also known as a yield curve inversion. The red vertical lines in the chart are drawn from yield curve inversions which are usually followed by the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, a rise in unemployment and US recessions. We're currently in a yield curve inversion that has gone more negative than the inversions just prior to the Covid panic, the 2008 financial/housing crisis and the 2000 dot-com bust which were all accompanied by record stock market losses. Maybe this time will be different...
SP:SPX
by PrepForProfit
1
Gold gets a safe-haven bid as banks shake confidenceFinancial markets were sent into a tailspin on the news of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) imploding. Despite the decisive moves by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)1 and the Federal Reserve (Fed)2, market confidence has been shaken and we have witnessed a flight to safety. Demand for government bonds have risen sharply, driving the yields on 10-year US Treasuries down from 4.0% on 9/3/2023 to 3.4% (16/03/2023). In tandem, gold prices have risen 6.6% in the past week (9/3/2023 to 16/03/2023). The speed of gold’s moves indicates that the flight to safety has not been obstructed by any broad-based liquidity issues. Very often in the initial phases of financial market stress, investors sell gold to raise cash to meet margins calls on futures positions in other assets or for other liquidity needs. The current crisis appears different in that there are no visible signs of panic gold selling and that could be indicative that the stress in certain parts of the banking sector are idiosyncratic. Nevertheless, investors have been reminded that unexpected events occur with greater frequency than they hoped and have sought to rebuild defensive positions that will help to hedge against further turbulence. Credit Suisse concerns add to investors desire for defensive hedges The Credit Suisse debacle unfolding quickly on the heels of SVB highlights that when confidence is shaken in one part of the banking sector it can easily spread. All banks, deposit takers, brokers and lending institutions with weak metrics are under the microscope. A liquidity life-line offered by the Swiss National Bank on 16/03/2023 has allayed markets fears for now, but we believe that investors are likely to continue to seek defensive assets in this time of uncertainty. Either tightening or losing monetary policy could be interpreted as a policy mistake. Gold is there as a hedge. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points on 16/03/2023, marking a bold move given the fragile state of market confidence. However, blended with dovish commentary, markets are expecting less rate rises in the future and believe the 50 bps hike was delivered only because the ECB felt like it had pre-committed and any smaller hike would signal conditions are worse than what the market has priced in. The Euro appreciated against the dollar and the Dollar basket depreciated, providing further support for gold in Dollar terms. While the jury is out on whether the Federal Reserve will pivot its monetary policy early (note the Federal Open Committee meeting is on 21st and 22nd March), investors are seeking to protect themselves with hard assets. If the Fed doesn’t soften its hawkish stance, it risks transforming a bank liquidity issue into a recession as risk appetite and confidence has been shaken. If the Fed does act either by terminating quantitative tightening or prematurely ending the hike cycle, the central bank’s monetary largess will linger for longer. Either way, gold is likely to benefit. Gold tends to do well in recessions and is seen as the antithesis to central bank created fiat currencies. Gold gains are well supported We therefore expect gold to hold onto the past week’s gains in the is time of turbulence. The key short-term risk for gold at this stage is not market confidence recovering quickly, but a broader market meltdown that could drive gold selling to raise liquidity for meeting other obligations (such as margin calls). In that scenario, gold is likely to recover in time as other investors will buy the metal to shore up their defensive hedges. Sources 1 The FDIC provided more than its usual $250,000 insurance on deposits. 2 The Fed created a new liquidity tool - Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) - offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral.
COMEX:GC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE