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Market AnalysisUnemployment claims are lower than expected (down) GDP is only 1.1% (the dollar will rise slightly) Personal expenditures are fronted by 1%, soaring to 3.7% (bad) Core PCE increased from 4.4% to 4.9% (bearish) Analysis: The U.S. economy is worse than expected and has clearly entered a recession. However, inflation and personal consumption are set to soar, proving that QT isn't enough. After this data, big possibility for FED to raise more interest rate. The stock market and crypto will at least dump for another 10% or more. Personal market analysis, for reference only
Short
by INFINITY8CADEMY
Dancing on the Ceiling In recent days, a variety of technology stocks have surged as a result of robust earnings reports. Microsoft's impressive cloud and AI performance have been particularly noteworthy, leading to a ~8% increase in its stock value. The company was on the verge of breaking its single-day record for market capitalization growth. In contrast, cryptocurrency markets have experienced a far more substantial upswing than equities over the past few days. Bitcoin has once again spearheaded the crypto rally, as expectations for future rate hikes dropped substantially due to continuing cracks in the regional banking system. However, this time, the change in the narrative was triggered by a larger-than-anticipated decline in deposits for First Republic (FRC), which has inflicted severe damage on FRC’s balance sheet and will be difficult to overcome. On Tuesday, FRC's stock plunged by about 49%, followed by another 25% drop on Wednesday morning. In other news, the ongoing U.S. debt ceiling crisis presents a compelling and potentially precarious situation that warrants close attention. Earlier in January, the U.S. government reached its borrowing limit and has since relied on "extraordinary measures" to manage its cash flow due to the absence of new treasury issuances. As a result, the Treasury's cash balance has been steadily decreasing this year, and financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned as funds are expected to run out by June, potentially leading the government to default on its debt obligations. This scenario merits close monitoring, as evidence suggests that a technical default could trigger contagion effects, which, in a worst-case scenario, could potentially double the U.S. unemployment rate to around 7%. Furthermore, a divided Congress will make raising the debt ceiling particularly challenging for Democrats unless compromises are reached. Market apprehensions are evident in soaring credit default swap spreads—an indicator of the cost to protect against a U.S. government default—as well as the spread between 1-month and 3-month Treasury Bill yields (approximately 3.4% vs around 5.1%) widening. Recently investors have sought 1-month Treasury Bills that mature before the predicted exhaustion of government funds, causing the price of 1-month Bills to rise and their yield to fall. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has experienced a minor pullback from its local top of around HKEX:31 ,000 and has since tested the 50-day moving average before regaining some bullish momentum. In the event of another pullback, traders will likely watch for the 50-day moving average to serve as support once again. MA9 and MA50 are also beginning to converge, with a potential crossing of MA9 below MA50 imminent. This would be a bearish signal. When MA9 previously crossed above MA50, Bitcoin gained significant momentum, underscoring the importance of a potential crossing of MA9 below MA50. Looking ahead, key dates to monitor include May 3rd and 4th, when the upcoming FOMC meeting is scheduled. The Federal Reserve has already hinted at a further 25 basis point hike, which the market has likely priced in. Nonetheless, exercising caution is advisable, as the Fed may take unexpected actions during this meeting.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Coinrule
Inverted Yield Curve Starts in 2023 - Explained When the yield of the 3-month bond is higher than the 30-year bond yield, this is known as an inverted yield curve. It is a rare and unusual occurrence and we are seeing this today. This signals a potential economic recession in the future. An inverted yield curve suggests that investors have a pessimistic outlook for the future of the economy. They are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds because they anticipate a slowdown in economic growth. In contrast, they demand higher yields on short-term bonds because they expect the central bank to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. An inverted yield curve can lead to a decrease in borrowing and lending activity, as it can make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money. This can result in a reduction in economic growth and can eventually lead to a recession. Some reference for traders: Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by konhow
The Fed Must Pivot When This Happens...We can try to predict when the Federal Reserve may pivot to a less hawkish stance by using charts. Below are some helpful charts. 1. Money Supply The chart shown above is a monthly chart of the U.S. money supply (M2SL). The white line shows the money supply over time. Below the white line is a stepped moving average (9 period), which I consider the 'steps of a debt-based economy'. In order for our debt-based economy to persist, the money supply must continue moving up these steps endlessly. For reasons beyond the scope of this post, if the money supply falls much below this level a financial crisis is likely to ensue due to credit and liquidity issues. Below are some examples in which money supply came down to the stepped moving average before climbing higher. Not even during periods of higher inflation did the Federal Reserve let the money supply fall below this level. Therefore, the closer the money supply comes to this stepped-moving average, the more likely we are to see the Fed pivot to a less hawkish stance. Since money supply is largely negatively correlated to the value of all assets priced in U.S. dollar, reaching this level may also be somewhat of a buy signal for these assets (e.g. stocks, Bitcoin). Indeed, the fact that money supply always goes up is a large part of the reason why the stock market always goes up, too. Whereas if inflation becomes so severe that it forces the Fed to take the unprecedented step of dropping the money supply below this critical level, then a financial crisis will likely ensue. Indeed, under the surface a crisis is already brewing. (You can see my posts linked below for more charts on this). 2. Eurodollar Futures It is generally accepted that the Eurodollar Futures chart is one of the best leading indicators for the Fed Funds Rate. (Don't know what Eurodollar Futures are? See the link at the bottom of this post.) Therefore, when Eurodollar Futures plateau or begin dropping, we can expect a Fed pivot. However, this assumes that the Fed Funds rate has actually reached the terminal rate implied by Eurodollar Futures, which has not yet happen because the Fed is so far behind the curve with hiking. Keep an eye on how markets react to quad witching on September 16th, the time at which stock-index futures, options on stock-index futures, single-stock options and index options simultaneously expire. This period has been known to generate significant volatility. See the bottom of this post for more information about quad witching if you're unfamiliar with it. 3. Yield Curve Inversion Usually around the time or shortly after the yield curve inverts, the Fed pivots to a less hawkish stance. Right now the 10-year and 2-year yields on treasuries are inverted. Below is a chart of the US10Y/US02Y ratio. In the below chart, I marked the points at which the Fed pivoted in the past (pivots were measured by marking the last date the Fed raised rates). The values that you see labeled on the bottom right are the values of the US10Y/US02Y ratio at the time the Fed pivoted in past hiking cycles. In the chart below, I zoomed into the current time. As you can see, the US10Y/US02Y ratio is currently below all the levels at which the Fed previously pivoted. Green is the highest ratio at which the Fed pivoted and red is the lowest ratio at which the Fed pivoted. The chart above shows that we are in uncharted territory in the scope of yield curve inversion that the Fed has created. The fact that the Fed has forced the yield curve invert to this extreme degree and has still not pivoted is likely reflective of one or both of the following hypotheses: (1) The Fed started hiking rates too late. (2) The factors of inflation from the demand side and/or supply side are worse than we experienced in the past (since at least 1988 -- the period covered by the data in the chart). Nonetheless, the Fed must pivot soon or risk causing a financial crisis. My hypothesis is that an inverted yield curve can have the effect, among others, of destroying money. Since some banks borrow at short term rates and lend at long term rates, an inverted yield curve makes this less profitable or even unprofitable. Therefore some banks will lend less. Since bank lending creates the most money, an inverted yield curve can decrease the money supply substantially. The Fed cannot let this monetary phenomenon continue for long without causing significant issues. 4. Inflation Of course the biggest consideration for the Fed is the rate of inflation. The next CPI report is not scheduled to be released until the morning of September 13, 2022, but we can use chart analysis to, with a high degree of certainty, predict the rate of inflation. The above chart is a chart of the price of gold (GOLD) multiplied by the Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC). This chart allows us to extrapolate both the supply and demand side of inflation to a high degree of certainty. It is a statistically valid leading indicator for the inflation rate. You can see how drastically it has fallen recently. You can also see how closely it matches the chart of the inflation rate on a lagging basis. For those interested in the statistics GOLD*DBC correlates to USIRYY as follows: r = 0.904, r-squared = 0.8844, p = 0 In the chart above I provide an even better correlation to the rate of inflation. In this chart I provide the total securities sold by the Federal Reserve as part of their overnight reverse repurchase facility, I then attempted to improve the correlation values by adjusting the value by using the price of gold as a multiplier. Although this may sound complex to those who are not familiar with the repo facility, in short it just represents the amount of dollars that the Fed is pulling out of the banking system. To diminish the effect of any non-inflationary factors that would cause the Fed to do this, I adjusted the value using the price of gold. Recently, the Fed has been pulling less dollars out of the system and on some days it has actually been putting more dollars back into the system. The Fed would not be putting more dollars into the system if inflation were still spiraling out of control. While anything can happen in the future, and additional inflationary shocks can occur, this equation gives us a tool to predict the rate of inflation before the CPI report is published. For those interested in the statistics, GOLD*RRPONTTLD correlates to USIRYY as follows: r = 0.954, r-squared = 0.94, p = 0 In the chart above, I've adjusted the values to match the inflation numbers as best as I could (I simply used a divisor that equates the peak values in both charts). It is far from perfect and it is definitely not something that you should use to trade on. The number that is actually reported by the government could be way different. The best that we, as traders, can ever do is use charts to try to predict what may happen, which is what I've done here. More information about Eurodollar Futures: www.investopedia.com More information about Quad Witching: www.investopedia.com
FRED:M2SL
by SpyMasterTrades
108
Bond Fund Entry Points Looking Attractive - Long Term As interest rates continue to rise, existing bond values have fallen over the last year and a half. It looks as though the Fed will continue to raise rates at a slower (25 bps) pace than last year, which will still create some downward pressure on bond prices. However, as prices are falling and yields are increasing, this makes these entry points extremely attractive for both risk management and tax advantaged yields. Once rates stabilize, bond pricing should as well and set up for a return to the mean. In this case, that would be 200 WMA, currently sitting at $59.22. This would be especially true if there is a scenario in which the Fed begins to lower rates in a couple of years. As mentioned in the title, this Municipal Bond Fund could be a great low risk place to park cash in the event of an economic downturn for long term portfolio stability and/or income generation. Bonds, while inherently boring, tend to out perform the market in poor economic conditions. This is a long term analysis, and will take time to fully play out (5-10 years). Bonds could be cool again come 2025 and beyond. Happy trading!
CBOE:HYDLong
by spaceboots
2023 Crisis In my own eyes THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts - Inflation - Interest - Unemployment Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up- The fed increased the intersect rate and unemployment went down to the lowest points of the decade or more - When unemployment reached the bottom, we were getting towards the top of the market (on 2008) or in the middle of the fall down (2001) - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEVER REACHED THE BOTTOM WHEN THE CRISIS WAS OVER OR DURRNING THE UPTREND ON THE ABOVE CRISIS -When Inflation rates got to the pick level - the market was either still climing or in the begining of the fall - INFLATION RATES NEVER PICKED OR STAYED HIGH FOR A LONG TIME WHILE THE MARKET BOTTOMED - THE PRIOD OF AT LEAAST 7 MONTHS WE HAD THE HIGH INTRESET RATE AT THEIR PICK - AND IT HAPPENED WHILE THE MARKETS WERE CRASHING THE SIGANL FOR THE BOTTOM USUALLY CAME WHEN THE INFALTION CAME TO IT'S LOWEST POINT - DRAMATIC MOVES OF THE INFLATION GOING DOWN - WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRASH AND TOWARDS THE END WHEN WE HIT THE BOTTOM - Were are we now 4-2023??? In My Opinion: - We are in the beginning of the big crash, we are going to sink hard to new low level, we will visit the highest levels of the market before the CORONA (February 2020) - I really think we will have a hard recession which will take 5-7 years or more to get back to the tops of the ETFs (QQQ/ SPY etc...) We are being fouled at the moment the the bottom already happened, as nothing is shiny in the near/ far furture - AAPL IS ONLY 9% FROM IT'S ATH (MAKE SENCE??) not to me - VIX IN ITS LOWEST FOR THE PAST 1+ YEAR (USUALLY THE MARKET WILL PUT ALL TO SLEEP BEFORE THEY DROP THE KNIFES) - LAYOFF SEASON HAS BEGAN AT THE BIG COMANIES - FED DECLEARED A SOFT RECESSION (WHEN THEY SAY SOFT IT'S THE SAME AS WHEN THEY SAID TRANSITORY INFLATION - PLEASE REMEMBER !!! - INTRESET RATE?? NEXT 0.25 IS COMING IN 2 WEEKS - WHAT IS THE CATALIST FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGH?? NOTHING (In My Opinion) THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by AstockMaster
1
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the US company JPMorgan Chase (JPM). JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational financial services company. It is the largest bank in the United States and the world's largest bank by market capitalization (as of 2023).The firm operates the largest investment bank in the world by revenue. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 15/04/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 145.00 USD. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 126.85 USD if you decide to enter this position. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and PNC (PNC) all reported surging revenue and profits in the first quarter even as regulators seized some regional lenders and panic spread across the financial system in March. JPMorgan’s net interest income jumped +49%, as average loans increased +5% and net-interest margin expanded to 2.63% from 1.67% in the year-earlier period. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:JPMLong
by legacyFXofficial
The end of an era.This week, the Bank of Japan governor’s Kuroda’s decade long term comes to an end. As such we would like to take some time to review what this means for the Yen and in particular, the AUDJPY. Firstly, central bank timings. In case you missed it, last Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) snapped its consecutive 10 rate hikes, being the second major central bank in developed markets to pause after the Bank of Canada. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) inaction thus far, is in stark contrast to the rest of the world. Kuroda officially ends his second 5-year term. With the new Governor Ueda at the helm, we think a move away from the current policy stance is very likely for BOJ as inflation remains uncharacteristically high for Japan and unemployment still relatively contained. A shift in the BOJ’s policies could mean the end of the largely debatable Yield Curve Control (YCC) policies, either in the form of abandonment or yet another change to the policy band or target yield as it repeatedly trades close to the upper limit of the currently allowed range. In fact, the OIS Implied rates for the 10-year Japanese gov yields show a huge disparity from the BOJ’s policy ceiling of 0.5%. While it has corrected from the high, it still trades north of the 0.5% cap by a clear margin, indicating market participants’ expectations that the yield cap is likely to be abandoned or shifted higher again. Coincidentally, the BOJ can take a page out of the RBA’s book, where RBA faced an almost identical situation, when in 2021 it was forced to abandon its three-year yield target. Once it lost control, yield quickly shot up there after. If or when the BOJ lose control of its YCC program, this warrants a peek into what might happen to Japanese Yields. Market expectations of forward rates are completely opposite for these two countries, with participants expecting the RBA to execute multiple rates cut through 2023, while Japan is expected to hike rates. So what does this mean for the currency pair? Well one way to look at this is the real yield differential between Japan (JP) and Australia (AU). When the AU – JP yield differential collapses, the AUDJPY tends to follow suit. If RBA is to hold rates, while the BOJ is to raise, we could see this yield differential collapse from here, paving the path for the next downward move in the currency pair. On the technical front, the AUDJPY is trading near its upper resistance of a four decade long descending triangle. On a daily timeframe, although the pair's first attempt to break below the 88 handle was short-lived, it now sits just above this support, which could lead to a second coming. Of course, such a trade might take a while to play out given the decade long chart pattern as well as fundamental factors such as central banks’ policy shifts. Looking ahead, the next potential catalyst could be the Bank of Japan’s first meeting under a new leadership on the 27/28th of April, while the RBA’s next meeting is scheduled for 2nd of May. To express this view, one option is to use the CME AUDJPY currency pair, which allows you to short the currency pair directly. Alternatively, if liquidity and contract size are of concern, the same view can be expressed by selling one Micro USDJPY Futures and buying two Micro AUDUSD Futures to construct a synthetic AUDJPY pair. Setting up the AUDJPY currency pair this way allows a more palatable trade as the notional amount is on roughly 20,000 AUD or 10,000 USD. This synthetic set-up allows us to access a more liquid market in both contracts compared with the full sized one. Using the descending triangle structure as a guide, we set our stops at 94, close to the previous resistance and our take profit at 70. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Short
by inspirante
Rethinking Fed Intervention: Wages, Inflation, and AIIn light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that the Federal Reserve has not completely controlled the financial system. Despite their efforts to manipulate interest rates, external factors and market forces continuously challenge the Fed's authority. The market's current outlook suggests that the Fed may be forced to cut rates soon, indicating that its strategy of hiking rates may not have been the best approach. The central premise that the Fed should intervene to suppress inflation by keeping wages low is fundamentally flawed. Higher wages can lead to increased productivity investments, reducing the need for labor and raising living standards over time. However, hiking interest rates can stifle investment, hindering economic growth and exacerbating inequality. In recent months, inflation has decreased independently, without the direct influence of the Fed's actions, suggesting that the economy may be self-correcting. However, this natural deflationary pressure could be disrupted by external factors, such as the tightening of lending standards brought on by the mini-banking crisis. The ongoing threat of AI-driven job losses and an impending recession further complicates the situation for American workers. Jeff Snider's research at Eurodollar University offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between the Fed and inflation. Snider argues that the Fed's actions may not be the primary cause of inflation, as it has limited control over the money supply. Instead, he posits that the global financial system, specifically the eurodollar market, plays a more significant role in influencing inflation rates. As we progress into the exponential age, the rapid advancement of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to significant disruptions. However, there are potentially positive aspects to these developments. AI could revolutionize industries, streamline processes, and create new opportunities. The widespread adoption of AI can lead to increased efficiency, improved decision-making, and the automation of repetitive tasks, ultimately driving economic growth. The productivity gains associated with AI could offset some of the negative impacts of the current economic climate, such as job losses and wage stagnation. In summary, the belief that the Fed should intervene to suppress wages to tackle inflation is fundamentally misguided. Such intervention can have numerous negative consequences, including hindering investment and stifling economic growth. In contrast, allowing wages to rise can lead to increased productivity investments and improved living standards. To effectively address inflation, it is essential to consider a more comprehensive range of factors beyond the Fed's actions and recognize the importance of encouraging sustainable economic growth through policies promoting higher wages and productivity investments. Policymakers and financial analysts must carefully consider the consequences of their actions and their impact on the broader economy and society. Thanks to Michael Green, aka @profplum99, for inspiring me to write this analysis :) twitter.com
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
Aud/Nzd heading lower The AUDNZD currency pair currently has a "Sell" rating with a total score of -5 after evaluating various factors. First, let's examine the preferences of institutional traders. The AUD has a long position percentage of 38.71%, while the NZD has a long position percentage of 43.82%. As a result, this category gets a score of -1, indicating that institutional traders have a greater preference for the NZD. Next, we'll consider retail traders' positions. For AUDNZD, retail traders are 64% long and 36% short. We use this information when there is a significant imbalance in retail trader positions. A score of +1 or -1 is given if 60% or more of retail traders are on one side. In this case, the AUDNZD receives a score of -1, as the majority of retail traders are long. We generally take the opposite position when the retail crowd is heavily biased. In terms of seasonality, the score is +1, meaning that historically, this market has a tendency to rise during this month. The trend analysis is based on daily chart data, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A strong trend, either upward or downward, is indicated by the alignment of these EMAs. For this pair, the score is -2, implying a downward trend. Lastly, a review of fundamental factors reveals the following: GDP growth is in favor of the AUD, while inflation, unemployment, and interest rates favor the NZD.
Short
by Elite_Forex
1
NZDUSD Outlook 6th April 2023The NZDUSD spiked up yesterday as the RBNZ surprised markets with a 50bps rate hike (the forecast was for 25bps). With the interest rates now at 5.25%, it is just 25bps shy of the peak rates of 5.50% previously indicated by the RBNZ. Following the spike up, the NZDUSD retraced the move to trade below 0.63 again (due to the overnight recovery of strength on the DXY). With the support level at 0.6270 coinciding with the 61.8% fib level, this could be a crucial level. A break of the support could see the NZDUSD trade lower to retest the 0.6240 price level (the upward trendline)
Short
by JinDao_Tai
interest rates and housing Australia.ECONOMICS:AUMR A visualization of how house prices react against interest rates rises other than the obvious divergence where rates get cheap and people will spend more. I haven't made any predictions, there are a lot of moving parts in the system at the moment. CPI being a big one on everyone lips, affordability, availability, sustainability, buzz words right ha A lot of people got money really cheap and after the 5 year fixed terms what is the flow on effect, have people stopped excessive spending and in turn the is a down turn in GDP jobs but CPI still climbs. Will tenants pay for all the rate hikes if the houses are not worth it? will people try and interest only? left with the prospect of selling will prices go too low while we are still in need of more houses to curb demand? ordinary interest increases appeared to be up to 60% over time and we are looking at a event where we are already 3x that. I used info from another chart to have more complete data for the interest, I should have done the house prices too. ( If someone knows how to import stuff like this speak up, that was a ball ache) Surprised tradingviews data was not complete. datawrapper.dwcdn.net Have your say. feed back is welcome. Might do updates if i"m feeling inspired.
ECONOMICS:AUMR
by S12spring
Inflation and Business Cycle: What will happen next?Inflation has been rising aggressively since 2021. It accelerated from 2% to hit an all-time high of 9.1% in June 2022. As inflation rose, central banks like the Fed raised interest rates to control inflation . But this effort to control inflation, on one hand made money more expensive for the industries and on the other hand pushed consumers to reduce their spendings. Many economists had already predicted rising inflation and its impeding worst impact on the global economy and stock markets. Still, there are fears everywhere that bear markets could persist and even a further decline is likely. Here the basic question arises that must be understood: WHAT IS INFLATION & WHY DOES IT OCCUR? In fact, inflation occurs whenever demand for goods and services increases while supply remains constrained. Growth is everyone's dream... To capitalize on this aspiration, banks provide cash at low interest rates to support growth, but unfortunately this cash is used by people to buy luxuries like cars, electronics and homes. Cars need fuel and metals, electronics need high R&D spending and skilled human capital, and houses need building materials. Pressure on luxury items leads to price increases. Technically speaking, when demand accelerates faster than supply, it has a net effect on price. This phenomenon is referred to as the law of demand, which states: "If more people want to buy something, when there is limited supply, the price of that thing will be higher." (The same law of demand applies in the stock market: as demand for stocks increases, their price increases.) After Covid-19, global demand for goods and services began to normalize (increase). But to boost growth, which had been severely hampered in Covid times, banks made easy loans available at attractive interest rates. The resulting increase in the supply of money in the markets stimulated consumer spending. Ideally, if growth had been at a sustained pace and in the productive sectors, inflation would not have occurred. But that never happens - a phenomenon that creates the business cycle. A business cycle has phases of expansion and contraction. We are currently in the contraction phase of the business cycle - inflation is still high, interest rates and yields are unbearable, and industrial performance has declined. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? - Unbearable prices will force consumers to reduce their spending/demand - High interest rates and reduced demand will reduce industry revenues and profits - Equity markets will continue to show poor performance But good times will come again! When the market bottoms out in the business cycle, expansion begins. This will be an ideal time to invest in growth and value stocks.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by starringinvestors
TLT: Trade Idea Before More Fed QEThe signal I was waiting for to start buying bonds was whenever the Federal Reserve stopped or slowed raising interest rates. The Fed held another rate policy meeting this week and only raised the Federal Funds Rate by +.25% instead of the +.75% that had been the trend. We've gone from seeing a +.50% hike in Dec, to +.25% in Jan to +.25% this week after 4 prior straight +.75% hikes in mid to late 2022. Now that banks are failing and layoffs are starting to tick up, this weeks rate hike was likely the last for a bit unless inflation doesn't stay flat or go down before the next Fed rate meeting. You can search "2023 FOMC meetings" for the full schedule. My thought here is that within the next 12-18 months the Federal Reserve will lower rates and begin buying treasuries again(aka money printing), and I think the time to start front-running that trade in to bonds is now for those who like to accumulate a larger position over time. The best way for the average trader or phone app investor to get into bonds is via "TLT", the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, which tracks the 20-year treasury bond price rather than the interest rate on the 20-year bond. As rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Right now I'm betting on rates having topped out(or close to it) and that bond prices are going to go back up over the next year or so as recession fears kick in and stock prices go lower. We've had a deep and long yield curve inversion to boot and those almost always precede a US recession. I have a recent post showing the yield curve inversion vs stocks vs US recessions for reference. TLT price is trading at decade lows and holding above $100 after a dip down to $90. Seeing the price of any asset hold above nice round numbers is always a good sign, psychologically traders like round numbers. The lower PPO momentum indicator is showing signs of a potential reversal in momentum from negative to short-term positive, and this is a monthly chart so it would be a significant event. A bullish crossover is what we want to see which is when the green signal line crosses above the purple base line in the lower PPO indicator. That would indicate a short-term return to bullish momentum on a monthly basis.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PrepForProfit
4
Correcting the News. Back to 1.07922? 🐻Check Description for Value ⬇️. Anyways, Looking for lower prices here. Where we have a move created by news which is corrected in the next few trading sessions down right almost to where it began. Simple trade idea. I've studied this is in the past. I have multiple screenshots in a library that documents this exact move. Doesn't matter what the news is necessarily. What matters for the most part is the market structure after price spikes. What kind of market structure can we observe after we spike? In the succeeding sessions after the news, what is price doing?
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Additional short ideaHi Traders Before continuing reading, please check out my first Bitcoin short idea. This scenario builds on that idea. Bitcoin has been consolidating high for the past week, yet markets are filled with bearish news. After our first rejection of the 28500 resistance area, Bitcoin looks set to move lower. If you missed the entry on 28500, here is my game plan to find another possible entry somewhere around 28k. Here is my Game Plan: - Bitcoin needs to consolidate further - Touch on the 28k area is needed for this setup to be activated - Clear rejection of 28k, if we push above 28k we might be moving higher, so I will be looking for an entry in the 27.9k area - Entry at a clear break of the trendline - Price movement needs to be erratic to the downside Please make sure to follow me on Tradingview for future setups. Have a fantastic day legends. Best CH
Short
by TraderCHgold