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3M Co. (MMM) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart of the US company 3M Co. (MMM). 3M (originally the Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company) is an American multinational conglomerate operating in the fields of industry, worker safety, U.S. health care, and consumer goods. The company produces over 60,000 products under several brands, including adhesives, abrasives, laminates, passive fire protection, personal protective equipment, window films, paint protection films, dental and orthodontic products, electrical and electronic connecting and insulating materials, medical products, car-care products, electronic circuits, healthcare software and optical films. The Triangle broke through the support line on 20/01/2023. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 22 days towards 108.57 USD. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 129.63 USD if you decide to enter this position. Wall Street will be looking for positivity from 3M as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be January 24, 2023. On that day, 3M is projected to report earnings of $2.34 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 1.3%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $8.04 billion, down 6.69% from the prior-year quarter. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:MMMShort
by legacyFXofficial
2
Tactical Retreat from USD, Might Spell DOOM & GLOOM [Short]So how did US's inflation report fare on Thursday 12th of January and how will this take the by the hand? For now, t's still moving down but not as sharp as it's been climbing. A YoY decrease of 0.6% in CPI and a YoY decrease of 0.3% in Core CPI. However, if we look at the MoM data, it's barely moving down to the point that core inflation has even moved up! Uh-Oh.. If we look at the easing conditions in US markets, and a sticky core inflation it might be a matter of time until the next report comes out fiery hot. And the FED won't have any other choice than to go raising those rates again! But until that time, we should grasp the opportunity and stay vigilent for an unwelcome upside surprise - The has been in a consolidating state, after falling below the daily 200 SMA. DXY 1D - Right after we've seen the Dollar breaking out of this consolidation and resuming its move to the downside. - So far the MACD is showing us a new bearish momentum is about to start on the daily-chart, which could drive the dollar towards 101 and plunging it further to the multiyear resistance turned support at 98. - The RSI could support a further move to the downside, although I would be much more satisfied if it would start the move from 45. This might create some room for the market-move without getting oversold too quickly. DXY 4H - While this is quite bearish for the dollar, I still want to be sure if this move will be sustained this week. - What we're probably about to see at the beginning of the week, is the Dollar trying to recover some ground until it reaches 102,5/103 before getting dumped again. - Resetting the indicators to a more comfortable state, from where it could proceed towards the next support. DXY 1H If this has been helpful at all, put some call options on that REP!
INDEX:DXYShort
by Dark_Boulder
230112- Relation (1) interest rate, (2) Treasury Yield, (3) oil U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972 Blue line: interest rates (USINT) Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N) Green Line: oil (scale on the left) (A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD, (1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019 (2) it is followed by a spike in oil price. (3) on smaller timescale, oil price rises and falls with increases and decreases in Treasury Yields. (B) OBSERVATIONS ON INTEREST RATE: (1) Interest Rates have been falling since 1980 (2) Treasury Yields have been declining since 1980 (3) It appears, the Federal Reserves strives for a 5% interest rate. It drops interest rates FAST when the market is too hot, and builds up slowly again, attempting to meat the 5% arbitrary target. (4) As time goes on the Federal Reserve is more cautious in raising interest rates. BUT MOST RECENT RAISES IN INTEREST RATE ARE ALL BUT SLOW. s3.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn39208297
Rally into 2023? Likely rally into 2023, spurred by downward trend in inflation. Likely 25bp hike at next meeting, then full stop to evaluate the damage (and give time for lagging economic data to catch up to policy changes). Unemployment will rise, possibly some deflation, and fed will cut rates towards the end of 2023 in response to negative economic data. This will cause a second drawdown. Well, the rates will be correlated with a second drawdown, but the real correlation will be between the negative data and equities. My initial thoughts as we move into a new year. Should be an interesting one. Love, InTheMoney
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
How to use ECONOMIC INDICATORS for informed trading decisionsHello everyone! Here you have some information that I consider useful on how to interpret and use economic indicators and data to make informed trading decisions in the foreign exchange market: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - GDP is a measure of a country's economic output and is considered to be one of the most important indicators of economic growth. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Unemployment Rates - Unemployment rates measure the percentage of the workforce that is currently without a job. A low unemployment rate indicates a strong economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Inflation - Inflation measures the rate at which the average price level of a basket of goods and services in an economy is increasing. High inflation can lead to a decrease in demand for the country's currency, while low inflation can lead to an increase in demand. Interest Rates - Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks. High interest rates can attract foreign investment, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Trade Balance - The trade balance measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency. Political Stability - Political stability is an important factor to consider when trading in the foreign exchange market. A stable political environment can lead to an increase in demand for a country's currency, while political instability can lead to a decrease in demand. In summary, GDP, unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, trade balance and political stability are important economic indicators to keep an eye on when making trading decisions in the foreign exchange market. By considering these indicators, along with other market conditions, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular currency. Please note that the above information is not a financial advice and only for educational purpose, Economic indicators are important but not the only factor to consider while making trading decisions and It's always important to do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before making any trades.
Education
by m_maia14
Recession on the Horizon - FOMC and LayoffsYesterday, the FOMC confirmed the backing of higher interest rates for longer. The market reacted negatively signaling negative sentiment on rate expectations for the following quarters. Federal Reserve official, Neel Kashkari, who often has the most dovish views on market anticipation stated that inflation may have peaked but sees interest rates rising higher for the next few meetings. He sees the FED raising rates by a whole percentage point from the current level of 4.25%-4.5% to 5.4% (MarketWatch, Jan. 5). The inflation fight is not over yet, and it remains sticky despite all the economic weakening observed. In a previous thesis where I challenged the US economy about a year ago, I warn of massive layoffs in 2023 despite most analysts and the Fed saying otherwise. Meta and Tesla have already laid off thousands of employees just months ago. Today, large layoffs in tech are happening with Salesforce: “layoff about 10% of its employees, the company also says it will close some offices as part of its recruiting plan, but it is still unclear if any of the bay area offices will be impacted, undertaking major cost cuts in a challenging economy.” (CNBC, Jan. 5). Amazon Chief Executive Andy informed his employees that the number of layoffs in the company has now been increased to more than 18000 roles (ArabianBusiness, Jan. 5). Other firms are cost cutting, most cutting employee benefits. It is just a matter of when or not we are going to see higher unemployment rates in 2023. The most obvious fundamental reason for these layoffs and cost cuts is the fact that all these companies responded to the “bubble” fueled by stimulus and extensive quantitative easing. As a response, the Fed is raising interest higher, and tightening the monetary policy and we see the equity evaluation of these companies dropping significantly. Eventually, that demand is gone, and these companies are left with thousands of employees hired in response to a "fake" demand, over-hired. As equity evaluation is going down, they have to improve the margins by laying off employees and reducing expenses since revenue is going down. I see another reason for large layoffs, perhaps, a more IMPORTANT and IMMEDIATE aspect. Salesforce admitted business activities going down, demand slowing, and growth staggering, however, their stock went higher because they laid off employees, reducing their expenses. On paper, it shows higher margins, and thus, the stock reacted positively. What can become a norm during this economic environment is that we see more companies, especially in the tech industry which saw major lows, employing this technic by raising their stock prices with restructuring and engaging in mass layoffs. My plan of limiting my exposure to risks has not changed. I am holding a majority in cash and short-term government bonds. Looking to increase exposure to my trading in gold when the US 10-Year Real Rates falls from the inverse correlation between the two. Reminder: Higher real yields = expensive to hold gold when compared to other yielding investments such as fixed income, thus the inverse correlation on the charts. This is for personal recording but feel free to comment and argue.
NYSE:CRMShort
by ssavi
Outlook through Friday jan 6 - 1 day - SPYThis is more about momentum than exact numbers over the next 2 days. Tomorrow, the jobless claims and Job Cuts reports come out at 8:30am. Typically this doesn't matter but in the current economic situation we should be seeing some volatility early before market open. I am expecting a slightly positive report because they have been becoming more positive, although shy of targets. The market may pop for the first couple of hours before dying down. People will be selling off tomorrow for the incoming report on Friday. Before the market opens on Friday the US Employment Situation report comes out. I think this could trigger a bigger sell off because I think the US employment situation is still strong. The FED doesn't have the unemployment where they want it signaling they will probably have to keep raising interest rates. Feedback is appreciated! Not financial advice
AMEX:SPYShort
by Adventure_Joe
1
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8% for this year. If this is the case in 2023, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. We can participate in hedging the market and trading the interest rate in this example. CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study.
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
1
2Yr Yield creeping up slowly$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are now NEUTRAL. EDIT: Keep in mind that in BULL MARKETS items can remain OVERBOUGHT for long periods of time.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913. Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here? While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government. 
Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” . Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles. Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward: U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊 U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊 What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates? Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy? Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
2
Tesla TSLA Market Cycle Signaling Capitulation Stage Coming? Lots of hype about the moves as of late in Tesla TSLA stock price, so I wanted to compare the Market Psychology & Cycle Timing phases to the Monthly Chart on TSLA. Do you think we are in the latter stages moving toward capitulation ? My take is that if we see a bounce from these levels into the new year (January 23'), it is likely another opportunity to short TSLA to under <$100 per share — potentially to a long-term trendline on the monthly chart that resides in the $80 area. Monthly TSLA Market Psychology & Cycle Timing 📊 Monthly Chart w/ Regression Channel Weekly TSLA Market Psychology & Cycle Timing 📊 Weekly Chart w/ Regression Channel Daily TSLA Market Psychology & Cycle Timing 📊 Daily Chart w/ Regression Channel Monthly TSLA Market Psychology & Cycle Timing w/ Yearly Returns Since IPO 📊 Indicator by @tradingview user @Botnet101 Indicator by @tradingview user @everget
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by kylemusserco
2
10Y Rate - Headed HigherToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1W linear scale chart for 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX). In December 2021, I posted a chart showing that the 10Y rate was going to go much higher. I was exactly on point almost to the exact number. Today I was reviewing the 10Y rate chart and saw the RSI formed a double bottom base with the 10Y rate ready to make another move higher. I also added in the Keltner Channel indicator which shows that when the 10Y rate is higher than the median line, there is a strong chance it touches the top of the Keltner Channel. I see the 10Y as well as other long term rates going much higher as shown in the chart. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
1
All eyes on Fed's Interest Rate~~**Repost from Dec 14th 2022 since the original post disappeared** Though the CPI figures released last night were lower than expected, if you look one by one, you will notice that the price of services (Core Services) has not yet decreased, but food and oil prices have. TVC:GOLD As a result, let's keep our eyes on the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement in upcoming hours, which many agencies, including Oxford Economics, Bloomberg, Forex Factory, and Trading Economics, expect to be 0.5%. If the Fed remains concerned and interest rates rise more than expected (0.5%), gold will take another ride up the hill tonight. If not, we should brace ourselves for a trip to Death Valley. Let's prepare for a ride~~
TVC:GOLD
by ChartTrail
FOMC Economic Projections Effect on GoldOANDA:XAUUSD **Repost from Dec 14th 2022 since the original post disappeared** Hello all TradingView speculators, In my opinion, I think there was an overreaction from the market's participation on the CPI numbers that was announced to be lower than expected. In addition to this, some technical indicators are showing us some signals to be careful on the buy side from bearish divergence signal between the price and RSI on 4H timeframe. This indication does not mean that the trend will reverse immediately but it indicates that the current trend has chances of stopping and turn into either sideway or downtrend in short term. Based on the current price level, Risk to Reward Ratio seems to be in favor of the bears. However, I would wait to see the price action in 1H timeframe tries to test 1815 first and if it fails then I believe that follow sell position after this price action fails to go above 1815 and if price makes a lower low below 1804 can be a worthy trade
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartTrail
3
FOMC Rates Decision and the Effect on Gold**Repost from Dec 13th 2022 since the original post disappeared** Economic indicators from the past month indicate that the price of services is the key factor that helps prevent a rapid decline in inflation , although the price of goods had already dropped considerably and the labor market remained strong, showing no signs of slowing down the inflation rate. ECONOMICS:USCPMI In the graph above, one of the key economic indicators, the ISM Service Sector Index for the month of November, accelerated to 56.5, above the forecasted rate of 53.5 and the previous month's level of 54.4. Despite the rise in interest rates from the FED, the ISM indicated that the services sector is still going strong, correlating with the positive outcome in labor market data. FOMC Rates Decision 15 December 2022 Previous = 3.75-4.00% - Prediction from Bloomberg, OE, Forex Factory, Trading Economics = 4.25-4.50% Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, the Forex Factory, and Trading Economics predict that the Federal Reserve's interest rate will rise by 0.50%. The market forecast for the highest interest rate as of December 9, 2022 is 4.75-5.00% in May 2023, with a gradual decrease beginning in the third quarter of 2023. However, because the services sector has been performing well, the FED's interest rate cut may come later than expected by the market. Thus, from a fundamental standpoint, the USD is expected to continue appreciating, albeit not as strongly as in recent months. On the other hand, the gold price is expected to fall.
ECONOMICS:USNMPMIShort
by ChartTrail