Bond Yields moving soonSo, we redrew the trendlines a few days ago and this is where the 10Yr currently stands.
Bond Yields should give some sort of direction within the next handful of days. Be ready.
TVC:TNX
Interest Rates
Interestrates
Morning Star To Wake GU TradersFX:GBPUSD has fallen into a Wedge Pattern after breaking Mondays Highs!
Price this morning has seemingly found Support at the 50% Retracement level signaling the potential ending of the Consolidation phase of the Wedge!
This Retracement comes in the form of a Morning Star, a strong Triple Candle Reversal Pattern!
If Price is supported in this area, we could see a Bullish Break to this Pattern delivering a Long Opportunities as a Break and Retest Set-up!
Gold - All eyes on Wednesday 08 May - FED🟡 Gold Traders: Nothing Matters Until Wednesday! ⏳💤
Hey traders! 👋
This week, all eyes are on Wednesday... and everything before that? Mostly noise.
Let me break it down for you. 👇
📊 Technical Outlook
Gold is chilling above a key resistance level right now.
Trendlines suggest we won’t see any major moves before Wednesday unless big news drops. 📰
🕐 Asian session is kicking things off above resistance.
If bulls show up there, we could break Trendline 1 (Image below) and head towards the $3300 🎯 target.
📉 RSI across multiple timeframes? Pretty neutral.
If Asia trades flat or slightly bearish, gold might range between $3210–$3250.
Break below $3201, and things could get shaky... but the European session might push us back above that support.
U.S. session on Monday? Likely a sideways snoozefest 😴 (unless surprise news hits).
🎯 Trade Setup (Mon–Wed)
I’m looking to play the range between:
$3261 (Trendline 2) 🔼 and $3169 (Trendline 4) 🔽
That’s a comfy $90 window I’m aiming to trade before Wednesday's fireworks. 🚀
🔮 After Wednesday – The FED Factor 💣
Here’s the real catalyst:
Wednesday, May 7 at 2:00 PM EST – FOMC Rate Decision
If the FED cuts rates (not likely, but possible under pressure), gold could tank hard. 💥
I’m talking a potential drop to $3150 or lower 🕳️📉
That’d be a -$90+ move easy.
FED has been holding the line 💪, resisting pressure (especially from Trump back in the day), but if the economy flashes red, that rate cut might come sooner than expected.
🧠 Final Thoughts
FED paused hikes, but left the door open for 3 rate cuts this year.
Until we get more clarity, no strong bullish signals on gold.
My bias stays: Bearish unless proven otherwise. 🐻💬
Stay sharp out there, and watch those sessions. Wednesday’s the real deal! 💼📉
And last but not least, look at this and let us know what you think about please:
Some would say its impossible but as we know, gold can do everything!
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either.
Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet.
They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now.
Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence.
So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high.
If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario.
Grega
My NQ Long Idea 5/5/2025Been a while but I haven't been posting ideas because I have been scalping and doing smaller time frame trades. I think we have NQ at a nice price level where we might see a bull run soon with the market sentiment slowly "thawing" on the idea of "risk-off" sentiment to "risk-on" sentiment and environment with more uncertainties clearing out of the market scenes.
We have US trying to negotiate deals with many countries including China which is very challenging and we can never know if it will be achieved or not. However, from an economic point of view we can agree that the US economy is in the Neutral-bullish. We have a very bullish price action in the past week or so. We also have healthy economic numbers but it is still unclear until Wednesday.
On Wednesday the FED will speak on this matter and give us some clarity on whether it is a Risk-on or Risk-off environment. Anything will happen but I can see the "Gap" getting filled on FED day due to the SPIKE that will be delivered to us.
Currently Edgefinder tool is giving us 8 for NQ with only the GDP and sPMI scores in the negative. However the net score is bullish and on the positive.
I think 1 of those two ideas will be played out sooner or later anything can happen but from a technical view I would like to see the price reaching the 50% FIB and then take off from there.
It is subjective though and everything in trading is subjective including what I do and say.
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
May/2025
source: Bank of Japan
-The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations.
The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%.
The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
10 Yr Bond Yield breaks downtrend & then falls back into it!10 Yr Bond yields seem to have topped after that massive 1 week run. That was an impressive run! TVC:TNX
Even though the downtrend was broken, the 10Yr Yield put in a LOWER high.
We can also see that the recent uptrend was violated, back in a down trend.
Short term interest rates look worse!
USD/CHF Bearish Tri Breakout - 5 Signs of a Strong Bearish BreakOANDA:USDCHF Bears have started the week off hot with Price having dropped 1.16% at the time of publication since Market Open. This price decline has seen a Breakout and fresh low after price has been caught in a Bearish Triangle Pattern, formed by Lower Highs into a Support Level.
1) Price has been trading well Below the 200 EMA.
2) After Price makes contact of the 34 EMA Band while attempting a Breakout of the Falling Resistance of the Triangle, it is sent back down into pattern.
3) After the rejection at the Falling Resistance, we see an influx of Volume enter the Markets, ultimately leaning Bearish.
4) All the Price Action while in Pattern has happened while the RSI has been Below 50, adding Bearish Pressure.
5) Price has made a strong Bearish Candle Break so far of the Support Level of the Triangle and the currently Low of Price @ .80684 has given us a new Lower Low, breaking the Support Level Low @ .80983, suggesting Bears have taken the Support Level and will turn it Resistance.
** With all Indications combined, I believe we are looking at a True Bearish Breakout of the Triangle and will be looking for a Break & Retest Set-Up!
--> Once Price Confirms the Break and Closes, We should expect a Retest of the Break of Support between ( .80983 - .81141 ) to deliver potential Short Opportunities!
Now, Fundamentals:
Price Action lately has heavily been influenced by a couple factors:
- Federal Reserves current dilemma with deciding to not cut Interest Rates in the assumption that the Tariffs will Rise Inflation while the CPI y/y on April 10th printed a -.4% drop from 2.8% to 2.4% which could create complications later if Interest Rates are not cut soon enough.
(If Global Trade slows, that alone will Inflate prices, Tariffs (once applied) will affect as well)
- ECB has made the decision to cut Interest Rates 25 bps from 2.65% to 2.4%. This alone in-time will start the act of slowing the economy so the euro doesn't inflate too much and, in theory, will make the Euro seem less attractive for foreign investment.
This could leave investors to lean towards one of the worlds most "Safe-haven" currencies, the Swiss Franc with the Franc currently hitting a 10-Year High!
www.tradingview.com
Interest Rates don't seem to want to slow downWe believed that interest rates were going higher in Early April/Late March.
The Bullish Engulfing formation was a sign that higher interest rates were coming TVC:TNX
The 10 Yr Yield Downtrend was broken, it retraced some, we posted that it was likely consolidating, & seems to want to go a little higher.
Central Banks worldwide are lowering rates while the US is raising them.
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Please see our profile for more info... We do post a lot.
$EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025)
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
April/2025
source: European Central Bank
- The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%.
Policymakers noted that the disinflation process is progressing well and dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance, while cautioning that the growth outlook has worsened amid escalating trade tensions.
BOC decision - trading the uncertaintyMarkets are narrowly leaning toward no rate cut from the Bank of Canada this Wednesday. Markets were pricing a 58% chance of a pause as of Friday last week. With traders nearly evenly split, short-term volatility in USD/CAD is possible.
While the Bank had previously signaled it would "proceed carefully" on future rate cuts, that guidance came before the heightened risks tied to the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.
From a technical standpoint, there are early signs the pair may be forming a near-term bottom. If the BOC holds rates steady, USD/CAD could retake its 200-day moving average, opening the door for a move toward resistance near 1.4100.
Most likely path forward, Fed stops the bleeding in JuneLooking at this chart I can see a clear trajectory to 68k, though bulls may end up staving off that price until June when the Federal Reserve plans to meet and talk interest rates, which will most likely be lowered to stop the bleeding of the stock market. I predict, if they do, there may be a drop in BTC price right before the meeting so folks can get their discounted bitcoin.
from www.forbes.com
Now, as the chief executive of BlackRock warns bitcoin could end the U.S. dollar’s world’s reserve currency status, traders are betting the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. recession—something that could see the market “flooded” with dollars.
BlackRock CEO Issues Huge $952 Billion Bitcoin Price Warning To The U.S. Dollar
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is having to recalculate the need for interest rate cuts after ... More U.S. president Donald Trump followed though on his threat of global trade tariffs—potentially playing havoc with the bitcoin price.
Short-term interest-rate futures are showing a 70% chance of a Fed interest rate cut when it meets in June, up from about 60% before the tariffs were announced.
That meeting is scheduled for June 17th and 18th.
Shorting isn't a crazy idea for now, while hedging on short term upswings until we hit 68k.
$GBINTR - U.K Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR
March/2025
source: Bank of England
- The Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the Bank Rate at 4.5% during its March meeting,
as policymakers adopted a wait-and-see approach amid stubbornly high inflation and global economic uncertainties. The bank highlighted that, given the medium-term inflation outlook, a gradual and cautious approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.
CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January, and while global energy prices fell,
inflation is expected to rise to 3¾% by Q3 2025.
Also, the MPC noted that global trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks increased, with financial market volatility rising. source: Bank of England
USDCHF Correction Due To Produce A Reversal Pattern?OANDA:USDCHF has been in a Correction Wave since the beginning of January and we now see that Price may have finally found Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level of the Correction Wave.
With both Lows in March finding Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level, Price is beginning to form what looks like a Reversal Pattern, the Double Bottom!
** Confirmation of Pattern will come when Price Breaks and Closes Above .8863, then we will be looking for a Long Opportunity to present itself as a Break and Retest Set-Up. The Retest will Validate the Trade Idea!
If we take the height of the Pattern and apply it to the Break of Confirmation, this puts the Potential Target at Previous Area of Support of the Correction Wave ( Point A ) in the .8975 area.
Fundamentals seem to Support the Bullish Idea with:
SNB Cutting Interest Rates by 25 Basis points from .5% to .25%
FED Holding Interest Rates @ 4.5% due to "Economic Uncertainty"
Unemployment Claims for USD came in as expected with no surprise and even 1K below Forecast ( Actual 223K / Forecast 224K )
Also Positive Outlook from Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales see USD rise.
Next Weeks Final GDP on Thursday, March 27th will be the next big News Event to bring some light to how the economy is doing and if USD will continue strengthening!
$USINTR - U.S Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
March/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Fed keep the funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%,
but signaled expectations of slower economic growth and rising inflation.
The statement also noted that uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased, but officials still anticipate only two quarter-point rate reductions in 2025.
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
March/2025
source: Bank of Japan
-The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0.5% during its March meeting, maintaining it at its highest level since 2008 and in line with market expectations.
The unanimous decision followed the central bank’s third rate hike in January and came before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate announcement.
The board took a cautious stance, focusing on assessing the impact of rising global economic risks on Japan’s fragile recovery.
The BoJ pointed to ongoing uncertainties in the domestic economic outlook amid higher U.S. tariffs and headwinds from overseas conditions.
While the Japanese economy had recovered moderately, some weaknesses remained.
Private consumption continued to grow, helped by wage hikes, even as cost pressures persisted.
However, exports and industrial output were mostly flat.
Inflation ranged between 3.0% and 3.5% yearly, driven by higher service prices.
Inflation expectations increased moderately, with underlying CPI projected to rise gradually.
Ultimate summary of Powell’s comments today As expected, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates, and the labour market is stable.
He also reaffirmed the Fed’s reliance on hard data over sentiment and the approach of slowing balance sheet reduction.
What’s different this time:
Inflation & tariffs: Powell acknowledged that recent inflation upticks may be tariff-driven, delaying progress toward price stability. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff inflation is temporary.
Economic sentiment: Consumer sentiment has weakened, partly due to Trump policy changes, and concerns over inflation are growing.
Recession risk: Forecasts now lean toward weaker growth and higher inflation, with recession risks slightly elevated but still not high.
If you don't have DXY, keep an eye on USDCHF.Today we are waiting for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, where the Bank is expected to keep the rates unchanged. However, it's the press conference, which we are more bothered about. Keep your eyes on TVC:DXY , but if you don't have MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX , then MARKETSCOM:USDCHF will be just as good.
Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:USDCHF
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Short Idea on EURNZDBased On
- Williams POIV Divergence on 4H
- Interest rate and real rate differential increased
- Cycle analysis and quantitative data
- Overvalued Conditions
Credit Spreads - About to Blow?While credit spreads, which reached near-historic lows in 2024, remain tight, they have widened notably since the beginning of 2025. If this trend accelerates, it could put substantial pressure on the bond market, resulting in tighter financial conditions and corresponding headwinds for the domestic economy. The last 2-3 weeks have seen risk assets come under pressure, but the below chart suggests that the risk-off sentiment shift may still be early-stage... Whether viewed through a traditional technical lens or supply/demand, current levels could be considered supportive - risk is to the upside.
A few impacted ETFs: NASDAQ:IEF , NASDAQ:TLT , AMEX:HYG , AMEX:JNK
Jon
JHartCharts
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest RatesECONOMICS:EUINTR
(March/2025)
source: European Central Bank
- The ECB lowered the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%.
This decision reflects an updated assessment of the inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission.
*The ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households.
Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target.
Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
*The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
Rate Cuts Are NOT BullishRate cuts in the US have never been bullish for equity markets in macro cycles. The idea that rates coming down from 5% to 4% suddenly making people more creditworthy is a farce because rates never move in anything other than large timeframe tides. These tides reflect growth/inflation expectations, not borrowing costs.
Were Jerome Powell to suddenly become very dovish at the next FOMC meeting it would be a clear signal that the SHTF protocol is in full effect. Powell is more likely to talk away the negative GDP prints as demand shocks due to tariffs/trade deficit imbalances while waiting for more data to make a decision. Labor market has been declining as well but he doesn't want to make a panic decision and also probably feels no personal loyalty to help President Trump out.
Historical average for US inflation is about 3.2% with the 2% target meaning deflation is a possible problem incoming. Current US inflation rate is about 3% which is well inline with the historical average. Powell will never say it but so far his mission has been accomplished. He may cut rates at the back end of the year if necessary but as of this post he has no reason to.
Australian Dollar holds up after RBA rate cut | FX ResearchEarlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. The accompanying communication leaned to the hawkish side with respect to the outlook on future rate cuts, which kept the Australian dollar propped up. As for Fed rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in 40 basis points of cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, risk sentiment has been improving in recent days due to an alleviation of stress around tariffs and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Key standouts on Tuesday's calendar include UK employment data, a speech from BOE Governor Bailey, German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment, Canada inflation data, New York Empire manufacturing, NAHB housing, and Fed speak. That's all for now.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
