Get started

Interestrates

US 10Y yield convergence of resistance levels around 4.19/20We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001. Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
9
Terminal rates - How FX traders can benefit on TradingViewOne of the more watched interest rate settings in markets is the so-called ‘terminal’ interest rate – the point in the interest rate futures curve that reflects the highest point of future rate expectations – said differently, where the market feels a central bank could take its key policy rate by a specific date. For those who really want to understand fed funds futures far better, this research piece from the St. Louis Fed is good - files.stlouisfed.org As an FX trader, I am not too concerned as to the exact pricing in the rates market, a basis point here or there is no great issue - I loosely want to know what is priced by way of future expectations. This lends itself to more fundamental, tactical or thematic trading strategies and obviously day traders won’t pay too close attention, although, it’s worth considering that when rates are on the move you do see higher intraday volatility and that is a factor they have to operate in – where one of the core considerations for any day trader is ‘environment recognition’ and the assessment of whether we’re seeing in a trending or mean reversion (convergence) day. We also see terminal pricing correlated with FX and equity markets – certain if we look at the relationship between fed funds futures April contract and USDJPY we can see the correlation. Some will just use the US 2-year Treasury, as this is the point on the US Treasury curve that is most sensitive to rate pricing. The good thing about the fed fund's future though is we can see quantitatively the degree of rate hikes being priced for a set date. Using the logic expressed in the St Louis Fed research piece we can see that the market sees the highest level where the Fed hike rates is March – subsequently, this is priced off the April contract, and currently, this sits at 4.90%. Using 4.9% as our yardstick, interest rate traders would make a call if the expected fed funds effective rate was either priced too high, or indeed too low and could push above 5% - if new economic data emerged that suggested the Fed needed to go even harder on hiking than what is priced, and the terminal rate moves above 5% then the USD will find a new leg higher. Conversely, if the market started to trade this down to say 4.70% to 4.5% then the USD will find sellers – and notably USDJPY is the cleanest expression of interest rate differentials. For TradingView users we can use this code in the finder box - (100-ZQJ2023). I put these codes into a watchlist and add a section' for heightened display. Again, this tells me where the peak pricing/expectations are in the interest rate curve. You can see the corresponding codes needed for each contract. Terminal rates matter – if we're to see this trending lower, most likely in 2023, then it may be one of the clear release valves the equity market needs – for those looking for the Fed to pivot – the terminal rate will be one way to visualise it
CBOT:ZQJ2023Education
by Pepperstone
7
The beginning of the BIG short !Another wave another short, a BIG short ! After the bearish confirmation with the break of the $3636 level on Sept. 27, the first bounce wave ended on Oct. 5, and the bearish acceleration on Oct. 13 with the lows supporting Fibo 50%, yet another wave of technical bounce is about to end. The opening short area starts at $3750 with a more important area between $3800 and $3815 (highlighted in deeper red). More acceleration could occur soon due to a confluence of factors : inflation data, FED interest rates, quarterly and the 50/100 weekly moving averages crossing downward (Death Cross). I will open SHORT positions in the entire area from $3750 up to $3815, with larger positions between $3800 and $3815 The long-term trend remains unchanged as from the first analysis on August 26, with a long-term target in the $2200 area.
TVC:SPXShort
by CryptoReggae
DXY Fundamental & Fibonacci AnalysisThe Covid-19 pandemic and Russia vs Ukraine war created supply shortages and imbalance in the global economy. In order to balance out the supply & demand and find equilibrium, demand needs to be reduced to meet supply. The way they can achieve this is by hiking interest rates, making things more expensive and making risk assets costly to hold. Until inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, which means selling of risk assets by smart money in exchange for USD, so they can profit from Dollar strength and high interest rates even when markets are going down, like a safe haven. It is estimated that at least 2 more rate hikes are priced in. If the Fed doesn't hike interest rates before recession it would be disastrous for the economy, it's unfortunate for most of the population but it's tough medicine. I expect continuation of the uptrend until the fundamental situation changes, which should happen sometime in 2023, possibly at the end of Q1, a year before the Bitcoin halving also. I expect DXY to break the Lower High at 121 and top out at 132, at the Golden Ratio of the previous swing impulse and the -0.272 Fibonacci extension. If you appreciate my analysis, don't forget to like this post and follow my page. Share your thoughts in the comments. Thank you
TVC:DXYLong
by sergiodef
2
DXY (Dollar Index) Full Top-Down Analysis Traders and Investors, Dollar had a massive run for past year and is now inside an FCP zone. It is kind of stuck between 2 FCP zones and may consolidate there for a bit. On smaller time frames, there are few signs which can give us potential important hints on the next direction. Last week, showed a rejection pattern from the top which is still valid. if the market does not violate that it can still look for downward move at least for the short term. But as it has been very bullish, there may be a period of consolidation. On the other hand, EURUSD also showed a good bounce last week which can also be correlated with it. On the bearish side of things there are several factors lining up for the dollar: 1. Completion of W pattern 2. price inside FCP zone 3. Trend Line touch a few days ago 4. Weekly divergence building up As the market conditions are changing fast, risk management is a priority. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:DXYShort
by vikinsa
4
Forecast: Can the dollar keep rising?The US dollar (USD) has strengthened against most other major currencies in recent months, reaching a 20-year high by regained ground above the 113 bouncing back from its weekly lows of around 110 and We've already had five rate hikes this year, but the Fed has not yet been able to contain runaway inflation. Inflation shows no signs of slowing, with 8.2% increase over the past year and rising by 0.4% from August to September. What I think with Next Fed meeting scheduled for early November I think we gonna have another aggressive rate hike *Note: This Trade will be valid if the price break 114.805 and closed above it
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingWithMohamad
Gold Tests Lower LevelsGold has broken down from $1670, finding support at $1658 before equilibrating after the hotter than expect CPI data. Support was confirmed by a green triangle and we were able to recover, testing $1658 one more time before tending toward $1670 again. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, suggesting we may waver around current levels before we see another significant move. We can expect a great deal of resistance above, especially at $1683, which is the lower anchor of our previous Fibonacci levels. If we break through $1658, there is a vacuum zone below to $1640.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Gold RetracesGold has retraced significantly from the $1700's. It appeared that we were ready to solidify this handle, however we faced a massive selloff with the rest of the risk-off assets, as the markets price in sobering data and a hawish Fed. We have broken through $1700 and our first two support levels in the upper $1600's at $1692 and $1683. We are currently finding support at $1670, but appear to be hanging on by a thread. Several green triangles are confirming support at current levels for now. If we are able to rally then $1683 is the next immediate target otherwise $1658 is the next level down.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
When USD Hits Resistance, That's When USDMXN Will Breakdown In today's video I will look into a detail analysis of USDMXN, which is doing quite well compared to the strong USD Index. So my assumption is that when USd index will hit resistance, possibly after the 10 year US notes completed the current fifht wave up, the USDMXN can easily break through the support and will be targeting Feb 2020 pandemic low. Crude oil is also very important for the USDMNX. Price is higher for the last two weeks as the situation between Russia and Ukraine is getting worse. OPEC also decided in its first one-on-one meeting since 2020 to cut production by up to 2 million barrels per day from November. So it appears that EU will not have easy task to limit the energy prices. If you like this video, please leave me a comment below and press like. Thank you Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
2
S&P 500 Outlook - Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Fed.How long will the rally continue? What to watch to answer this question. 7 October Fed Critical Datapoints Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Numbers If more people are finding jobs and and unemployment is going down it will indicate a strong economy, which will lead to the Fed continuing rate hikes, which will put downward pressure on the S&P 500. If more people are struggling to find jobs and unemployment rises we can assume that the economy is slower and the Fed might likely pivot and ease rate hikes, which will put upward pressure on the S&P 500 and cause a further upward rally. Mid October. (Earnings Season) Earnings are set to release, middle October, my prediction is earning will be weaker than expected and might lead to a continuation of the Bear Market we are in. If earning are flat or higher than expected, then we can see a further upward rally in the S&P500. Goodluck. Follow me for more.
SP:SPX
by SmartMoneyTV
1
Short AUD/USD -RBA Interest rate hike only 25BP, won't beat Fed.As seen in the video - I am short the Aussie Dollar against the almighty greenback. The RBA needs to get more aggressive in hiking interest rates, in order to compete with the Fed in the US. The Dollar USD will continue to be strong against all other currencies as they raise interest rates aggressively and be the defense trade in these uncertain times. Although other currencies will fight to not go lower against the divergence in interest rates against the USD.
Short
by SmartMoneyTV
2
Weekly gold, another short opportunityTraders will keep eyes on global bond markets for next week because if the Bank of England's strange policies continue, it could help gold to rise while the Bank of Japan, which is concerned about high prices in USDJPY, should intervene in the forex market. In addition to buying yen, they can sell US bonds in the markets and witness fluctuations in bond yields. The risk of the economic recession is the driver of the rise of gold. But in the short term, the attention of all traders is on contractionary policies and decisions of central banks, which can put pressure on gold. As we told you in last week's analysis, any upside movement in gold will be short-term and provide a selling opportunity. Because the US dollar is in the overbought zone and also the bonds are at their highest points, the take profits have the possibility of raising the price of the gold. On the other hand, due to the hawkish policies of the central banks as well as the US central bank, this pressure on gold will not be removed and as long as we observe the rotation of the monetary policies of the central banks, we cannot expect a stable rise for gold. The world's largest bond market has fluctuated strongly in the last week due to the fear of the British debt crisis. But, with the intervention of the BOE and the introduction of the government bond purchase program, the treasury bonds' price fall was compensated. The trend changed as the Bank of England intervened in the bond market and it lowered the yield of American bonds. Now, in addition to the policies of the Federal Reserve, other central banks also affect bonds and we have to care about them. As we said in the analysis, gold is bearish in the medium and long term until we see a turn in the contractionary policies of the central banks But this week due to the upcoming economic data and the possibility of correction of the US dollar index and US bond yields, there is a possibility of gold increase. However, we predict a turbulent week and our suggestion to traders is to wait this week and sell gold from the high points. $1700 to $1724 is our sightly range to looking short opportunity to the$1620 area
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
S&P 500 RECESSION ANALYSIS!1. LOWER HIGHS-LOWER LOWS: price action says the actions or pattern formed by the price itself. and the people who trade in the stocks makes up the demand and supply. therefore, this affects the inflation, and there could be a major correction, if recession is announced. 2. 3200 level is getting support by FIBONNACI RETRACEMENT(0.618 AREA) 3. RSI ANALYSIS: first i thought its a rsi divergence, but it looks like rsi is yet not completed its action fully, if the markets falls further, then RSI will correct itself, and will go in the around 22 level. to make my point prove, i have drawn one more resistance line, showing RSI's resistance towards it. the arrows what i have drawn in RSI, is to say whether it is a pullback of RSI or not, but to say so, it does not looks a like. 4. DEMAND ZONE: after a recession, the next phase is depression or expansion. it does not looks like, US markets will face a depression, so i will go with the 2nd option itself(expansion), which is also know as demand zone. so the indices will enter the demand zone, which says that markets would have reached its bnottom, and can have a fresh entries. 5. FIBONNACI RETRACEMENT & WAVE THEORY: supporting the wave theory with the fibonnaci, it looks greatly the index is supporting the fibonnaci levels, and thus forming a good corrective waves. the 5th looks way clearer, and no need to comment on it furthermore. FINAL STATEMENT: hence concluding my analysis, if theres a recession being announed, S&P will reach 3200 LEVEL. AND MY STATEMENT WILL THEN BE CONFORMED IF THE INDEX WILL ENTER THE LAST AREA OF FIBONACCI, AND GOES BELOW 3500(GOING TO TOUCH THE BOTTOM OF DEMAND ZONE)
SP:SPXShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
2
Can Gold Regain $1700?Gold prices have lifted as risk-off assets rally. We have clawed our way back through the mid $1600's and have hit $1683. We appear to be encountering resistance here, which is to be expected as this is a major level. The Kovach OBV has risen, but has flatlined, indicating that we will need more momentum to properly break out. If so, $1692 is our next target, and we are sure to encounter further resistance as we head toward the $1700 handle. If we retrace, anticipate support at $1670 or $1658.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
USD Index Recession Depression and TransgressionGood Morning All , It has been a long while since I posted, but it has also been along time since I have been active in trading as well. i squared off my positions and just been speculating and watching the craziness that continues to unfold. For some of the OG Traders out there you might have come across my stuff in the past, but for some of the new guys new to trading what a time to be alive. To re-itterate some points I have made in the past I am not political I consider myself a centralist with right sided tendencies. (because of my views about business and taxes) . this post will be rudimentary in aspects for people that live here in the US. So if not interested then skip the italicized section. okay, what we have here is the dollar index, and its basically a measure of strength of the US' economy against 8 other countries. Now, I live in the US and here is a very basic political breakdown of our political system republicans- it's the political conservatives of the country and business liberal. Meaning that they hold traditional values when it comes to policies and encourages borrowing for business growth and borrowing for political agenda. Democrats- it's the political liberals of the country and business conservative. Meaning they hold progressive policy values and encourage high taxation to fund their political agenda. We need both in the US to keep the balance to much right sided-ness we fall into a communists like state and too much left sided nss and we fall into the hands of socialism. so a health mix of both is needed to keep us in check. Now, the world is coming into hard times because of the US' liberal fiduciary policies as of late and now we are trying to reel that back. The US is the world reserve and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and the reason i say that is I don't see the world entrusting China to report the truth of the Yuan's value if it were to become the reserve currency of the world. I know a lot of people think that china is the next super power to rise and become the reserve status of the world, but until they become more transparent i don't see it happening. The only country I see rising to take that spot is the UK. They have the second largest FREE trade economy of the world, and could potentially return to the reserve status. The EU stands a chance, but I don't see Germany being able to support the world economy that would be required to make the EU possible. Basically, which demon do you want to deal with, because none of the options are ideal. Now, if some of the EU countries that takes from the Euro really step their game up and produced for more the euro instead of take then they could become a viable option too, but as far as china I just don't see the world entrusting them to hold that type of power. I mean their housing market is currently a Ponzi Scheme, and their having to use military force to keep citizens from breaking into the banks to get their money back out. The US' SEC a year or two ago placed harsh restrictions and banned a lot of Chinese companies from the US open tradable market, because they were cooking their books and inflating earnings and deflating expenses, and rumor has it that the chinese government knew about it and allowed it, to continue to boost their economy via foreign monies. Back to the Dollar, the Dollar index has an inverse relationship with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Why? Because, the DXY is a visual representation of the current status of the Economy. When the dollar was in the 8X's the last two years times were good, people were making a lot of monies while spending and living the good life? Why? because the Fed made money cheap. So, the cost of doing business was cheap profits were just as large as the margins. So, business operations got fat in the sense of a CEO or C-Suite personnel needing 2-3 assistants and having bean counters to double check the primary bean counters. Now, Powell has consistently held to his target inflation rate of 2% its all over the FED's website and echoed in his speeches. which is the reason of his 75 base point interest rate hikes. What I see coming is another Great Depression. Because for many of the technical traders in the world there is more to a company than numbers on a chart. Investors large and small make monetary contributions to these companies in return for returns. well during COVID-19 money flooded the market and business were able to continue to run. Since the beginning of COVID I knew a lot of businesses were in trouble because they were publicly reporting inflated numbers to the SEC, and the SEC TOOK THEM?!?! So it looked like these businesses were doing way better than they actually were, and now their board of directors and shareholders expect them to continue to run at that level. Now, that money is drying up and these businesses are about to lose their funding from both ends. On one end their investors (already starting) are squaring off their positions. So, one way to prop up the facade of success is to do massive layoffs to trim the fat. Run the business very lean. That doesn't boost revenue that really just stabilizes the load. putting a plug in a hole on a boat as it were. These massive layoffs lead to lower GDP and two consecutive reports of shrinkage equals a recession. The Fed Continues to raise interest rates making the dollar expensive to do business. When someone looks at a business' 10K and finds their balance sheet or earnings they will see massive amounts of debt. this debt is typically owed to a major lending institution. These loans, though not designed for the purpose, they are used to fund operations and growth. good businesses have cash on hand to pay off loans in times of hardship and inexperienced leaders are frivolous with the tax-free money. When this money becomes more expensive businesses can no longer afford to take loans out and are forced to remain the same, shrink, sell-out to a competitor, or go out of business all together. part of the problem is that it now keeps people working because they lost 10-12 years out of their 401k due to the stock market correction, students coming out of college with massive amounts of student loan debt and are forced to take a job making 10-15 dollars an hour with student loan payments being around 300-1000$ a month which will lead to defaults because they cant afford to live alone, and are going to move back in with their parents. and hopefully their parents are not retired, because if so they're going to have to help their family with utility bills and mortgages and care less about their student loans. much less if their parents don't make the cut at work due to the layoffs. Now, this causes a major problem because those once employed people are now jobless and can no longer keep their payments to their mortgage company. And now these mortgage backed securities are going to start imploding on the people that bought them and repeat 2008. This is just the inherit fallout of these type of securities. I mean i understand their purpose, which is used to get back money to keep the velocity of money up, but no matter the credit score if a person loses their job and can not find work then payments are going to be missed. this will ultimately lead to a depression. what saved us last time from a depression was the US " FOUND " weapons of mass destruction and we launched an all-out attack on Iraq. and then when we finally "FOUND" said weapons we then decided to focus our attention on the people that attacked us on 9/11. But, this is not the only time the US used war to re-bound out of a depression, WW1 aka the great war ramped up our economy and we were magically out of a depression and then shortly aft Dub Dub 1 we found ourselves in Dub Dub 2. the pattern is repeated over and over in our history. the cold war got us out of the stink in the mid 80's with the cold war, and gulf war in the 90s. will the US find Hillary Clinton's Emails in China and now we go to war with china? Who Knows. (this was sarcasm) I think we need a business savvy executive whether man or woman to be elected as president and get the country back on the rails. We need good monetary policy in place, we need to support small business here in the states to keep big businesses from becoming monopolies and drive prices down. we need more diversity in the economy. Because a more diverse economy = a cheaper place to live. with all of that being said I forsee dollar to continue to get more and more expensive with the minimum being 12X.xx, median being in the 14X.xx and the maximum being somewhere around 15X.xx. I see interest rates forcing everyone's hand to show what their hiding. I see weak businesses going under, smart strong businesses staying afloat and will grow exponentially when the storm passes. another potential thing is that the FED might think they over extended and might bump interest rates down or keep them the same for a brief time (this is a temporary fix), but I still see them raising rates to get back to 2%. this is not financial advice, but my play book is to continue to sit on liquid cash and I would say a good indicator for me to jump back in is to see 4 or 5 maybe even 6 Fed meetings where the interest rates remain unchanged or begin to drop consecutively. So gather all your pennies, begin to live lean, and when the fed begins to keep interest rates unchanged begin to look at who is still walking around Wall St. and think about investing with them. i do think if the US votes with their intelligence and not their emotions we can avoid all of what I wrote. and I truly do hope I am wrong! @TayFx crazy to see man how two years ago we were called perma-bears and crazy and now we look like Wall St. prophets. LOL Hope all is well bud! HMU when you get a chance!
TVC:DXY
by ARegularGuy