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Gold PivotsGold caught a massive bid off Bonds and the selloff in the US dollar. We broke several levels above to finally run out of steam exactly at our level of 1670. Although the Kovach OBV picked up, resistance kicked in and we appear to be taking a breather. It is likely that the rally is transient and we will retrace soon. The first level to provide support will be 1658, then after that we have a vacuum zone back to 1640. If we continue to rally, 1683, the base of our levels before using inverse Fibonacci extensions to predict lower levels, will be the next target.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
NIFTY 50 ANALYSIS ON RBI'S MEETINGmarkets fell, indicators supporting!! rising wedge pattern is formed. RSI will react in the same way as there previous ones are. markets will reach its bottom point of its crucial trend line support, and will start moving up the next week. this week's was a crucial point, as FED'S meeting led to fall in our markets, and a further fall due to RBI's announcement. markets will be correcting till the decision comes, hence this two days, markets will reach 16520.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
Fed Meeting, War tension and recap of week 38Week 38 has been very eventful to say the least. On Wednesday we had the Fed raise interest rates by an expected 75 basis points for a third consecutive time. This created uncertainty within the markets which provided us traders with volatile conditions. SPX went down 6.2% after the meeting on the 21st however the dollar gained even more strength which is continuing its increasing strength compared to main currieries such as the EURO and the GBP. EUR/USD is now at 2002 levels (20 year low) and the dollar gains more strength over the Euro due to the uncertainty which is happening in Europe with the Russia/Ukraine War tensions growing even thinner this week. Oil has also continued its downturn in price with a further 8% drop this week in price which makes the current month down 12%. The UK interest rates also rose 2.25% to battle with the inflation fears, currently inflation in the Uk has dropped slightly Month on Month to 9.9% (10.1% in August). There are growing concerns in the UK and the BOE this week has admitted that the UK is now in a Recession. More doom and gloom the for High-risk equities are on the arisen. On a positive note, here was some of the trades we were able to get in on, some trade's took longer to form than others, some trades were taken as a result of the news this week. Natural Gas Trade - Head and Shoulder Pattern with break of neckline. SPX Trade - Reaction of the Feds Meeting on the 21st + Continuation of a Downtrend ETH/USDT Trade - started the end of week 37 and carried onto week 38, we exited the trade on the 19th USD/JPY - This was a volatile 24 hours following on from the 21st, the yen gained back some power, but this could be short lived as predictions are looking towards the 1998 high Brent Oil - We have Been bearish on Oil for the month of September, we have a symmetrical bearish pattern which is one of my favourite patterns to trade. I am currently taking this up as a hobby/ part time work and have been in this business for 2 years, any further information which could help will be welcomed massively as my goal is to provide useful information and chart ideas. If you like the information and would either like to seem more weekly recaps or market forecasting for the upcoming week, please leave a like and a comment and I'll be sure to answer all questions provided. Enjoy the rest of the weekend and all the best for week 39 see you soon!!
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by LuxTradeVenture
1
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!- REUPDATED!!due to the hikes in interest rates, US markets are not getting that freedom to freely enter the market and make their positions. the hike is creating a fear among the people of not entering into the market, and keep on people selling their positions, making markets keep falling. "A BULL RUN can only happen when all the news has been factored". this explanation is also set for the INDIAN markets too. and people do have a good and fresh mindset to enter into the markets. when such a thing happens US markets will have a boom. and this will gonna be happening soon. support lines are too mentioned. news is much factored in the indices, if by a chance nasdaq, broke the particular drawn supports to, then the next support will be forming around 10000, which is about 10% fall, but i dont feel now there is such more news aspects lefty to cover which will make the markets to fall with such a high number. final words, do watch out for 200 MOVING AVERGE, because from past few weeks, this indicator is acting a very good support for nasdaq.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
A SILVER underdog and a correction of the Gold to Silver ratioThe History of the Gold-Silver Ratio Citation: www.investopedia.com Historically, the gold-silver ratio has only evidenced substantial fluctuation since just before the beginning of the 20th century. For hundreds of years prior to that time, the ratio, often set by governments for purposes of monetary stability, was fairly steady. The Roman Empire officially set the ratio at 12:1. The ratio reached 14.2:1 in Venice in 1305 and remained at this level up until 1330 when it fell to 10:1. In 1350 it fell to 9.4:1 in some places across Europe. It climbed back to 12:1 in the 1450s. The U.S. government fixed the ratio at 15:1 with the Coinage Act of 1792. The discovery of massive amounts of silver in the Americas, combined with a number of successive government attempts to manipulate gold and silver prices, led to substantially greater volatility in the ratio throughout the 20th century. When President Roosevelt set the price of gold at $35 an ounce in 1934, the ratio began to climb to new, higher levels, peaking at 98:1 in 1939. Following the end of World War II, and the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, which pegged foreign exchange rates to the price of gold, the ratio steadily declined, in the 1960s and again in the late 1970s after the abandonment of the gold standard. From there, the ratio rose rapidly through the 1980s, peaking at 97.5:1 in 1991 when silver prices declined to a low of less than $4 an ounce. For the whole of the 20th century, the average gold-silver ratio was 47:1. In the 21st century, the ratio has ranged mainly between the levels of 50:1 and 70:1, breaking above that point in 2018 with a peak of 104.98:1 in 2020. The lowest level for the ratio was 35:1 in 2011. When Was the Gold-Silver Ratio at Its Highest? The highest the gold-silver ratio has been in recent history was in April of 2020, following the onset of the COVI19 pandemic, when the price of gold outpaced silver by more than 125:1. What Is the Historic Long-Run Average for the Gold-Silver Ratio? The long-run average gold/silver ratio is around 65:1 since the 1970s when the gold standard was abandoned. Historically, however, the ratio hovered more around 15:1. From Peter Frankopan's book "The Silk Roads" Chapter 12: The Road of Silver Page: 235 As Adam Smith later noted in his famous book on the wealth of nations, "the discovery of America and that of a passage to the East Indies by the Cape of Good Hope, are the greatest and most important events recorded in the history of mankind." The world was indeed transformed by the roads of gold and silver that opened up following Columbus' first expedition and Vasco da Gama's successful journey home from India. Page: 233 "In China, silver's value hovered around an approximate ratio to gold of 6:1, significantly higher than in India, Persia, or the Ottoman Empire; its value was almost double its pricing in Europe in the early sixteenth century." More Gold Than Silver Above-ground Citation: www.silverbullion.com.sg From the crustal abundance of precious metals, we can also see that the gold-to-silver ratio in the earth’s crust is about 1:19. This means that there is roughly 19 times more silver than gold in the ground. However, the mining gold-to-silver ratio is about 1:9 – only 9 ounces of silver are mined for every one ounce of gold. The reality from mining is a stark difference from scientific estimates. According to the annual survey reports from Thomson Reuters, there are 71,578 tons of ‘identifiable above-ground’ silver stocks. Compare this to the 187,200 tons of above-ground gold stocks. There is actually lesser identifiable silver than gold above-ground. Despite this, the gold-to-silver ratio, when comparing the prices of both metals, is about 1:70 at the time of writing. In other words, the value of an ounce of gold is equivalent to 70 ounces of silver!
AMEX:SLVLong
by jfs2152
3
The Proof-of-Stake Era is Here. Can ETH Survive the Winter?After Ethereum's "merge" this week, the crypto market continues to sag as a whole, unimpressed. One pattern we see emerging is that coins that have been proof-of-stake since the very beginning (especially ATOM and ALGO this week) have been performing very well relative to the rest of the market. (Coins to keep an eye on in the near future: XTZ, ADA, TRON, MATIC, etc.) As we head further into the recession we're going to start to see some of these patterns get more aggressive. The reason why this is happening should be pretty obvious at this point: people's attentions are switching over to proof-of-stake, and the coins that offer competitive staking rewards (aka interest rates) are starting to attract new customers. Flipping NFTs is too confusing to most people but most people can tell when one rate is higher than another. (Especially since most banks are still stuck in 0-interest rate savings mode at the moment.) The crypto community has largely been down on Ethereum lately as the realization that they've fallen behind the curve starts to settle in. But they're certainly not out of the race yet - the roadmap to make ETH competitive in the proof-of-stake race is pretty clear: 1) Make staking liquid - the fact that it's locked up for an indefinite period of time is pretty ridiculous, possibly illegal. (Probably in their own interest to do so quickly before it turns into a lawsuit, tbh.) As it stands now ETH's staking rewards are too cumbersome and not competitive enough for people to consider. 2) Adopting on-chain governance would make skeptics feel at ease and would quell some of the criticisms coming from the Bitcoin maxis too. The real problem is transparency, not centralization. 3) Fix the issues with scaling to bring gas fees down, finally. They can probably consult people from other chains who have already figured it out. (If they can get over themselves, that is, lol.) They definitely have the resources to do so - that was never in question. Whether they're actually gonna do it, though, that's another story. I didn't exit completely but as a disclaimer I did sell off a pretty big portion of my ETH holdings this year because of concerns over its long-term prospects. Ethereum may be well on its way to becoming Bitcoin 2.0, given that it's now become a deflationary asset. If you're an ETH holder you'll probably be OK since they'll probably continue to burn their supply to make sure that the price doesn't go down too much. Silicon Valley is known for their appeasement of the investor class and we're likely to see the same pattern play out again. But keep in mind that each coin burned just makes it harder for new people to come in - what they've done is basically put an expiration date on their own project since they're actively restricting the platform's growth now. (Crypto NIMBYism, as I like to call it.) Coin supply is a controversial topic in the industry but can be understood in a fairly straight-forward way: The higher the supply, the better it is for newcomers; the lower the supply, the better it is for existing holders. Maxis will repeat whatever marketing slogans they were fed but at the end of the day, it's about who's back you're willing to scratch. Getting returns on your investment requires you to see things as they are and read between the lines of what's being said - are they using that wealth to make genuine improvements on the protocol itself, or are they just hoarding it and promoting the scarcity model behind your backs? More coin supply to attract new talent/investors? Sure, good idea in theory. Just not here - "Not In My Back Yard". NIMBYism is a thing you see in the real-estate markets, and we start to see its ugly head rear in the crypto space, too. I do owe a lot to ETH - it stabilized my finances, paid off my student loans, and gave me the time to do the things I wanted to do, rather than had to do. But it's probably time for me to move on - I'm here for the dream, not just the money. 🔥
Long
by RyanTanaka
The Bond Market Reacts to the FOMCBonds have slid further and there is no relief rally insight. The markets were hoping for a 'dovish hike' in the sense that the 75 bps hike would be followed by dovish rhetoric. In fact it was the opposite. Yields have maintained highs pressing prices further down. We are hugging 113'12 and expect support there. If not, we will use Fibonacci extension levels to determine support levels further down. Our targets are 115'03 and 115'29 if we get our relief rally.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
BTC: What to Watch Going into US FOMC Presser This WeekThe US Federal Reserve Open Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation that has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%. The Primary Chart above shows key levels to watch going into the FOMC presser. The downtrend line in blue, which is the zero line of the Fibonacci Channel, rejected price decisively on September 13, 2022. But with an important trendline such as this one, a retest of the line is not uncommon, similar to what occurred where BTC tested this line from March 28 to April 5, 2022 repeatedly before finally resuming the downtrend. This occurred at the end of BTC's powerful bear rally in March 2022 that coincided with equity indices' rally during that time. The area of resistance that could be tested should price rally or whipsaw higher this week is between $19,900 and $21,416. The Primary Chart uses a yellow-colored ellipsis shape to capture the strong, dynamic resistance levels of this down trendline. The Fibonacci Channel also shows the parallel diagonal lines that run at Fibonacci proportions to this downtrend line, which also should be watched for price support in the coming weeks. The Primary Chart also shows the key Fibonacci retracements of the entire summer rally. BTC has been holding just above its .786 retracement of the mid-June to mid-August 2022 rally. This level lies at $19,246, and price has made a couple attempts to break below it, each of which has failed, suggesting more sideways chop into the FOMC's meeting. The .618 retracement of the summer rally is at $20,521, a level that should also be watched closely. BTC struggled to get above this level in June and July with two failed breakouts. Finally, after getting above this line, BTC began declining and fell back below it after its mid-August 2022 peak. BTC attempted one more rally above it in early September 2022, but this ended up as a failed breakout, another bearish signal along with the downtrend line. In addition to the levels shown on the Primary Chart above, the Supplementary Chart below shows shorter-term Fibonacci levels that also may become relevant this week. Considering that this decline from September 13 to September 19, 2022, may be a completed wave 1 of some larger Elliott Wave structure, it becomes important to consider the retracements as places where the current corrective wave could reverse. These levels are $19,993, $20,526 (coinciding with the other .618 retracement level shown on the Primary Chart at $20,521), $21,058, and $21,815. Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Retracements of September 13-19 decline Given the impact interest rates—and tightening financial conditions—have had on risk assets, it may be prudent to also watch interest rates closely. For this purpose, see the 10-year yield chart below. Supplementary Chart B: Current Uptrend in US 10-Year Yield (TNX) and Multi-Year High Reached The 10-year yield has shown no signs of slowing down yet. It continues to push higher, holding its short-term upward trendline from around the start of August 2022 until the present. The longer-term uptrend line has remained in effect for 2.5 years since March 2020. Note also that the 8-day EMA has held as support along with the shorter-term steep upward trendline. Until this line breaks, it is unlikely that crypto assets and equities can make substantial progress toward reversing their current bearish trend structures. For the curious, another chart showing the correlation coefficient between BTCUSD and TNX is shown in the final chart below. This shows that for most of 2022, the relationship between BTC and interest rates has been inverse. Many probably already have known this intuitively while reading news about increasing rates to combat inflation while simultaneously witnessing bear markets across most risk assets this year. This correlation coefficient has at times reached -.64 and -.68, showing fairly high levels of inverse correlation, which means that as yields push higher, BTC has fallen lower. This level has also dropped to lower levels of inverse correlation. Currently, the coefficient is at -.49. Supplementary Chart C: Correlation Coefficient for BTCUSD and TNX (Weekly Chart) ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature . This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CME:BTC1! BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by SquishTrade
28
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. For this FOMC KOG Report we’re going to reference the KOG Report shared on Sunday where we said we would be looking for some form of relief rally in Gold. We suggested earlier in the month that we could potentially see this rally happening at some point during the last week of September, so for that reason we will be looking at the lower levels to go long. We have targets below which we would like to see completed before the move to the upside, what we want to see though is how the price reacts to these levels and where it creates its base. Our daily is already showing some bullish signs, however, the weekly is suggesting some more movement down is possible. A lot of traders will be sitting long here at the 200MA so a sweep of liquidity on the lows is very possible. For the reasons above, we’ll again be looking at the extreme levels to take entries with a plan to take this up towards the 1700+ price regions. Illustrated on the chart are the key support and resistance levels we feel they can tap into before swinging the move in the opposite direction! The first level we’re looking at is just below the 1650 psychological level where if we see a strong support we feel there will be an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1680-95 price points. We’re going to keep it simple for this report as our plans are on the KOG reports and nothing has really changed, apart from the ranging price action that we’re witnessing pre-event. Its also possible that the market has priced in this release, in which case we will continue as we are. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
DXY Tests Highs Ahead of FOMCThe DXY made a run for highs yesterday as we had one more rally in yields just before the FOMC. We are currently flirting with highs, with a wick peaking past 110.75 to 110.86 or so. We will need to solidly break this if we are able to hit our next target at 111.37. We don't expect too much action until the Fed rate hike today at 2 PM EST. We are expected to see a 75 bps rate hike, with some small probability of a 100 bps increase. If we see a retracement after the release, we should see support at 110.20, with further support in the 109's, and a floor of 108.50. If we rally, then 111.37 is our next target.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
1
US Federal Funds Rate Prep (DXY)With the Fed Reserve expected to hike rates by 75bps tonight, the common question is "what would happen to the DXY". Typically, because the Fed Reserve communicates the expected hike, this leads to a priced-in scenario. The previous 4 rate hikes... 16 March, 25bps hike as expected. 4th May, 50bps hike as expected. 15th June, 75bps hike (expected 50bps). 27th July, 75bps hike as expected. Generally, the price trades lower following the release of the news, only to trade higher again several days after. Could this be the case again for the upcoming releases? Maybe the DXY could retest the support level of 109 before trading higher again towards the 112.50 resistance level.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
EURUSD before FED Like we said already, today is FED Interest Rate decision. This will definitely cause some moves. Here's what you need to look for before you enter a trade. Direction : there is a higher probability for a strong USD, therefore we should see a new low on EURUSD. However, we should not sell right now! Levels: The support levels are 0,9878, followed by 0,9800 and in case of a breakout then 0,9685 will be next. Entry: There are a few ways to enter but the best one would be if we see a rejection wick above the previous highs. That wick should have formed after the news. You need those 3 things before every trade. Everything else is money management and confidence (psychology) in your position. In case of an upside move then we are not looking to enter a trade today!
Short
by ForexTrendline
1
Two Reasons Why the US Dollar May Have PeakedThe US dollar has topped out at 110.20, our target from last month. The last time we hit this target was earlier this month, then the markets started to anticipate that the inflation had plateued, and we saw a significant retracement back to the 107's. However, they were proven sorely wrong as inflation came in strong with CPI last week. Even with this surprise print and a looming Fed rate hike on the horizon, the DXY still has not broken highs. These two factors make us think that the DXY may have peaked and we might be due for a correction or reversal. A consistently strong dollar is already impacting import/export prices, and this will ripple through the economy. Additionally, the Fed is likely to backpedal from their hawkish rhetoric with potentially one more rate hike in the tank before they have to start cutting again. If the DXY can pick up then 111.37 is our next target. If not, we should have support in the 109's, then 108.50, with 107.20 a floor.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
4
Stocks Brace for Fed Rate HikeStocks are edging lower yet again, as investors price in a potentially historic rate hike. In order to combat the highest inflation we have seen in 40 years, most agree that we are looking at a 75 bps rate hike , but some suggest it could be as high as 100 bps . However, multiple indicators suggest we are in the thicket of a recession, and after this rate hike, they are likely to pivot to a more dovish stance, with maybe one more rate hike in the tank before they're forced to start cutting again. The S&P has edged lower and dow futures have plunged more than 200 points as the market brace for the tightening. The S&P is testing 3848, and the Kovach OBV is still bearish. We do appear to be seeing some support here confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. If we can pivot, 3909 will be the next target, but we don't anticipate to break that any time soon. If we fall further, we should expect support at the base of the 3800's.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Why Bonds Might Be Nearing LowsBonds have continued their decline as the markets price in a potentially historic FOMC rate hike this week. Inflation data suggests that the Fed's rate hike trajectory is not really working and inflation is still soaring. On the other hand, multiple indicators suggest that we are in a recession, and the Fed will have to pivot their hawkish stance after this last rate hike. If that is the case, then we expect the bond market to be nearing lows. We have one more technical level before we will have to start using inverse Fibonacci extension levels to predict lows in bonds again, as 113'12 is our last technical level. The Kovach OBV also appears to be leveling off. The next targets from above are 115'03 and 115'29.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
2
$SPX downhill without brakesFear inside Wall Street The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven gauges of market sentiment, is once again showing signs of Fear on Tuesday as the broader market plunged. The VIX, a volatility index that is one of the seven components of the Fear & Greed Index, shot up nearly 8%. The Fear & Greed index was in Fear mode a week ago as well but it had recently moved back into Neutral territory following a 4-day winning streak for stocks. That streak is coming to a spectacular end thanks to the hotter than hoped for consumer price index report, as investors worry that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates even more aggressively next week to fight persistent inflationary trends. Wall Street's mood has largely tracked the rapidly changing expectations regarding inflation and rate hikes. Just a month ago, before Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech that suggested more big rate increases were coming, the Fear & Greed Index was indicating levels of Greed, a sign of complacency.
SP:SPX
by icheeetah
NASDAQ TARGET 11541!!, MARK IT. i have made a detailed analysis, that why Nasdaq is falling, and based on different corrections, bear markets and from various crashes, i have made the support and resistance, which determines the supply zone. finally, the markets will not face any crash such, the Nasdaq is just falling because of the hike of interest rates, thats much. people and institutions are moving out from the markets, making the index to get corrected, and this selling pressure, is basically preventing from a huge crash(when the government will such announce hike in interest rates, in some future, just to correct the markets that far). so analytically, this selling pressure, is making the index to correct itself and preventing it from going in crash.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
2