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Interestrates

DOLLAR UP // EURO ( CRASH )The strength of the dollar as a currency is increasingly present against other currencies, if the FED continues to raise interest rates in this way and the rest of the countries do nothing with their currencies, we would be talking about an increase in strength for the dollar currency (at least temporarily). An increase in the strength of the dollar, would make a large number of assets and currencies, such as the SP500, Bitcoin, Euro, etc... fall sharply. We are at a critical point, as we have already observed in the previous Euro analysis. If the strength continues to increase, there is a high probability that it could reach the levels of 120. After that level. We would be faced with a new scenario. Where the dollar will ultimately decide the future strength or weakness of the rest of the assets. It would not be surprising that we are facing a final sprint for the dollar where before falling the dollar itself, it will take everything ahead. Good luck to all !
TVC:DXYLong
by javieralcazarono
Bye Bye EURO !! ( CRASH )The levels on the euro's chart against the dollar are highly worrisome. If the European Union does not quickly raise interest rates more aggressively, we could see the Euro fall to levels of €1=$1 or even lower at €0.8=$1. We note that it has been in a bearish channel since about 2005, which it has been respecting in a demanding manner. At the same time we have no nearby supports that can hold the price, so the HIGHEST probability is to fall. The market structure predicts an abrupt and rapid fall towards these levels, probably without giving us any retracement, as happened in the past. We have already broken the bullish guideline within the bearish channel and this is not good news, since there is no " REAL SUPPORT " by market structure ( I REPEAT ) The area where it is right now, is NOT a SUPPORT !!! . Europeans can be affected by this, losing 20% of their wealth added to inflation added to the uncontrolled growth of taxes. :( . Best of luck to All, hope it helps to get a clean picture of the future of the EURO.
Short
by javieralcazarono
1
Bearish Reversal in play for the VIX! After reaching the resistance zone of the upward expanding megaphone pattern just as we forecasted back in April, the Volatility index (VIX) has formed a strong intra-day reversal head and shoulders pattern on the 1H chart. This coincides perfectly with the positive divergences we are seeing on some of the benchmark US indices like the SPY and QQQ, which we believe is signaling for investors that the worst in terms of market declines might be behind us. The sentiment for risk assets in general has reached max levels of fear and negativity and usually this is a good moment to start adding back some risk exposure to your portfolio. We will be releasing a more detailed report and analysis in the coming week on what we expect from the markets moving forward and how we are positioning our portfolio. Good luck out there!
TVC:VIXShort
by DowExperts
The Bond Selloff ResumesAs anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at 117'19. The Kovach OBV is extremely oversold, so watch for a relief rally, which could test 119'01 again.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
EURUSD before FED Today is FED's Interest Rate decision. We're expecting to see a rise from 0.5% to 1%. A rise will definitely happen but what's more important is by how much and when would be the next one as well. Technically, we're in a strong downtrend which is more likely to continue therefore we should see lower values. The Interest rate decisions normally cause big moves and rejection wicks in price. A conservative approach would be to look for entries after the news or also tomorrow. The aggressive way to trade it would be to look to sell around 1,0590 and make an entry right after the news if there's a nice long wick. The target is 1,0400!
by ForexTrendline
17
EURUSD Outlook for May 2022...My analysis for EURUSD on the monthly timeframe. Includes some simple fundamental perspective but if you want to discuss fundamentals in depth feel free to comment below. Aside from that, there's not much the dollar can do to beat anticipations unless liquidity of the dollar really tightens. In that scenario, the dollar will really strengthen and we could see parity, but I don't think the Fed will tolerate that or even risk the possibility. It's more of a possibility that something breaks in the U.S. economy, which is the case when every recession has happened in the U.S., so it would be sudden. Aside from that the Euro is moving well economically too, maybe a little less enthusiasm towards it than the dollar and more of a risk to it's bullish scenario comes from Russia, energy and slowdown in the EU as a result of sanctions and high prices. Either way, technicals on the lower timeframes to follow...
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
Xau/Usd-Perfect Time for Hedge TradeOANDA:XAUUSD * Technical Currently, we are at the 1900$ level and if we start analyzing the chart technically from the Daily we can easily spot that this is a strong support level where the trend can find new buyers and make a new wave upwards. If we go down to the 4H TF we can spot that the 1900 level is a really obvious one, and at the same time, it is a round number which makes it an even stronger level, so we expect the bulls to win this small battle. The SL is as we can see on the chart pretty close being just 11dollars below, but still reasonable and giving the trade enough space to, breathe'' if the wick is coming because the ATR (average true range indicator ) for the past 14days is around 27$ on the Daily TF and when we are just at this area of value zone this level makes sense because if it breaks lower we can expect an even bigger decline and doesn't make sense to take unnecessary loses. The TP is at 1980 making it 1:6 RR * Fundamental As the S&P drops more than 8% in about a week and is currently at a key level which if it breaks we can expect an even lower low, at the same time with inflation and interest rates hiking this is the perfect trade to take and at the same time is a perfect hedge for our Stock Portfolio.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Elite_Forex
US30Y: Rising Yield as the expectation of Rising Interest Rate?U.S. Inflation has surged significantly to 8.5% in March 2022, It hits a new forty-year high. As the Inflation keeps increasing month over month, The Federal Reserve is committed to tackling inflation by Rising Interest Rate, potentially 0.50% in May 2022. The rising interest rate will cause bond prices to fall. Consequently, The Bond yield will be increased. Chart Perspective: US 30 Years Government Bond Yield (US30Y) has broken out of the falling wedge pattern. US30Y is also accompanied by a golden cross on the MACD indicator. We conclude from the macro and chart perspective, That is a potential bullish outlook for US 30 Years Treasury Yield. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area. *Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
TVC:US30YLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
Interest rates, Inflation and how to trade it.Hey Traders, Massive week this week fundamentally for the Forex market. 3 big interest rate decisions being released so I thought there was no better time than now to have a chat about what it is, what it indicates and finally, how traders profit from it. Fed and BOE almost guaranteed to hike rates, RBA is sitting unsure. Have a watch of the video and I am more than happy to have a discussion in the comment section! As always, have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all many profits.
Education
by the5erstrading
4
Breakout Of the 40 Years Old DowntrendUS 10 year bond rates are important indicator for investors. If its go up, it means investors are selling their bonds expecting interest rate rise from FED. This is happening for over 1.5 year now. Investors are selling bonds because they think inflation coming and FED will act accordingly. High interest rates cause risky assets, like crypto and stock market, to lose value. In this Monthly chart, Something huge is happening with the 10 years right now. We were in a downtrend that started in 1981. We tested the trendline in 1984, 2007, 2018 but never able to break it out. Last months, breakout occured and we may retest the trendline before going up. Around 3.25 area seems to have a strong resistance. Also around 3.25 area, investors may want to buy bonds therefore 10y rates can pause their rise for a couple of months. The breakout of this decades long trendline may mean that, we entered a new period of high interest rates. But in the end everything will be decided by FEDs actions. Thanks. Follow for more information and charts about markets and global economy.
TVC:US10YLong
by thegreatwall38
Are we going to see a new low on EURUSD this week?The downside move continues and it looks like we will see another low on EURUSD. The pullback that happened on Friday gives us a chance to enter short again with targets at 1,0400. This week, we also have FED Interest rate as well as NFP. That could possibly mean big moves and potential reversals. At the beginning of the week, we're looking for a breakout of the previous low and we don't want to see price breaking above 1,0600!
Short
by ForexTrendline
22
AUDCHF Heading to the downside? (FUNDAMENTALS)Hey Traders, AUD is showing weakness as the RBA are ready to start hiking rates, this data is usually already priced into the market but it is the meeting minutes which indicate where we are heading into the future. Also expecting lower retail sales data later in the week. CHF is looking rather bullish, on the other hand with not much room for the Monetary Policy to ease the outlook is rather Dovish. The data releases do remain weak but with stocks heading lower I can see money flooding into the CHF. As you can see by the chart, we have formed and broken a clean flag pattern on the 4h timeframe. Keep an eye on how this chart runs and the reaction to the interest rate hikes by the RBA. Good luck traders!
Short
by the5erstrading
1
Gold PivotsWe mentioned yesterday that gold was starting to look oversold at 1876, and sure enough, we got a nice pivot back to the 1900's. We started to see support between 1876 and 1895 confirmed by green triangles forming all the way through this vacuum zone. This suggested that the massive selloff from 2000 was coming to a close and the pendulum was due to swing back. We subsequently blasted through resistance in the 1900's and are currently testing 1917, where we are meeting resistance. This level corresponds with relative lows from the value area established at the end of March and the beginning of April. We should see pretty strong resistance here but if we are able to break through, we will regain the price range between 1917 and 1956.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1