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The raising of interest rates VS BTC price actionHey everyone, Hope everyone is keeping well and in good health. We've seen our crypto portfolios shrink in monetary (FIAT) value. This sucks, but please refrain yourself from making emotional choices here at all times. Above illustration incorporates the recent FED rate hikes between 2015 and 2019 and what the price-action of Bitcoin was in that time period. I know the bears are trying to spread a lot of fear around J. Powell's plans. but always do your own research. Historically speaking, the FED raising interest does not have a negative effect on BTC. Last time the rates hikes began, BTC did over 40x (from around $450 to the 2018 top of nearly $20K) Everyone take care and keep healthy. Thank you for taking the time and until the next time!
BNC:BLX
by impatientmonk
Dollar Index - Nearly at the end of cycle wave 2!We've been tracking the DXY in it's final stages of it's wave C of cycle wave 2. We're looking for this to end around the 98 region, we'd advise patience to confirm the end of this wave 2 before shorting the dollar as it could be a trap and the dollar could push a little higher towards 99 if wave 5 is extended. It is our belief that the Fed has either been signalling too aggresive an approach in raising rates and stopping QE and will have to either be more dovish or reverse course altogether if the economy starts to tank causing the dollar to become more worthless and risk on pairs and commodities flying to the upside in response to this.
TVC:DXYShort
by RAA_Trading
Interest Rate Hike is Imminent, So Does The Drop of Gold Price ?As we all know that the Fed has announced the increase of interest rate is going to come as early as March 2022. Although it is not guaranteed, but usually the price of gold is going down when the interest rate moves higher due to investors switching their funds to other attractive investments such as bonds and stocks. Lets see on the chart, based on the daily chart of Gold, we actually can draw the Elliot Waves and see a possibility of breakout on the bottom of the last line which could trigger a new trend if it happens. At the current point of time, I agree that the breakout has not happened yet. However, due to the interest rate news, I will be more comfortable if the price can drop below the line. All the best!
TVC:GOLDShort
by Anandha_AR
Head and Shoulders Breakdown in BondsAfter breaking down from our head and shoulders pattern, bonds have found support at lower levels and have attempted a rebound. The level 127'08 provided good support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, and we saw a nice pivot there. We were able to break above 127'22, the next level above before retracing and stabilizing above 127'08 again. It appears that ZN is attempting to stabilize in this area, as we mentioned in the reports. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, so we anticipate the price action to be range bound between these levels.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
GO LONG TOMORROW ... AFTER 12 AM EST SNIPER ENTRIES ARE OVER.FOMO doesn't see inflation as a problem right now as CPI is steadily increases. The Feds will tighten policies with the help of Job Biden new appointees. This will cause the US stock market to fall further. A hawkish projected FOMO will cause a major bullish move for DXY-If interest are actually raise tomorrow- Powell has hinted this in the past. An immediate increase may cause a drop that may crash the us stock market. Tomorrow is 100% macroeconomics in full effect. DXY just recovered from an overbought resistance level. Right now is too soon to expect a major bearish move. Retail traders will analyze this as a perfect bearish move. The bullish spike will hit all stop losses.
Long
by Theforexconnect
4
Gold Smashes Through Lower LevelsGold has smashed through lower levels, currently breaking through our levels in the 1780's. We are just above 1777, the floor we anticipated yesterday. We sliced through the entire value area between 1815 and 1795 with ease. The Kovach OBV has taken a turn to the bearish side with the selloff. We anticipate 1777 to hold, as it has provided support in the past, but if not, then 1770 should hold, then there is a vacuum zone to 1759. We should see resistance from 1795, should gold bounce from lower levels.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 - IS THIS A CRASH/ OR HEALTHY CORRECTION TO AVERAGEAbove is a chart of the S&P 500 since 1950 (adjusted in Log). The yellow line represents the mean (average) price. It is well known that price naturally gravitates towards the mean, always! Notice how the price of the S&P 500 has not had a significant drop below the mean, since the early 1980's. It had a brief stint below trend, during the 2008 financial crisis. Why has the S&P 500 not had a significant dip below the mean since 1980? Is it a booming economy? Is it an educated and financially literate workforce? I will talk about this in a future post. For now, I just want to pose the question and get the cogs turning. What has caused the high deviation from the mean in the past 30 years, and specifically the past 12? I want to throw this other statistic out there. Interest rates in the 80's were around 16%. Today? The lowest they have ever been. Less than 1%. Form your own hypotheses, and please share them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.
SP:SPXShort
by SJ_CAP
XAUUSD Possible Trend : 01.26.22As you can see after the breaking of the upward trend we expect the price to see lower levels and there's a possibilty of losing the 1834$ key Support ... i can see the price is so bearish and the next bearish targets is : 1832$ , 1826$ , 1823$ , 1809$ and 1800$ ... Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 26.Jan.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
How the FOMC Statement could Impact the US DollarThe US dollar is on a broad uptrend, solidifying the 96 handle again. However, as we identified in the report yesterday, 96.24 seems to be providing prohibitive resistance at this time, with a red triangle on the KRI as confirmation. We are getting support in the low 96's, however and we identified 95.82 as the next level of support if this does not hold. Note that we appear to be forming a bull channel, beginning from 94.77 or so. Bull channels tend to break to the downside, hitting a target of 50% of their length. This would put us at about 95.58 or 95.26 in the event of a correction. The rate hike from the fed has largely been priced in, so we could see a bit of a selloff in the US Dollar after the FOMC meeting this afternoon. If we can continue to rally, then 96.44 is the next target.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
EURUSD before FED Today is the day when we expect the Interest Rate decision for the USD. It doesn't matter if there will be any changes, we're still expecting some moves. Because of the news and how risky and unpredictable they are, we suggest looking for an entry only when the news are over! We think that there is a higher probability that the downtrend will continue. If, during the news we see price going up to around 1,1400 in the first minutes and then rejecting those higher levels, then that would be a good sell signal. Quite often, during news you can see how price leaves long wicks in a certain direction to take out the retail traders and it then reverses. That's exactly what we're expecting to see today, and we have to be patient because we don't know in which direction that wick will occur. The only thing that's sure is that there will be a lot of volatility and that our analysis tomorrow will look at the potential opportunities after the news. Good luck!
Short
by ForexTrendline
9
Head and Shoulders Retest - Adding to ShortsHeading into BOC rate decision tomorrow with some analysts forecasting an earlier than expected rate hike, we see USD/CAD rally up into the neckline of that head and shoulders pattern it broke through last week. Partial profits were taken on Thursday last week and now I will be adding back on to this short position. Looking deeper at the rate decision... it has been said for roughly the past year that the BOC would raise rates before The Fed, now that time is near. With The Fed forecasted to be raising rates in March and possibly even raising by 50 basis points, the BOC is being said to likely jump ahead and start with a quarter percent hike this week. A quarter percent hike will shock markets, but not as much as what would happen if The Fed hiked by half a percent. The BOC historically has been more stable and acting ahead of the game in terms of raising rates and being more subtle than The Fed has been.
Short
by TheCaffeinatedTrader
3
EURUSD awaiting FEDTomorrow we have important news for the USD. The interest rate decision together with the press-conference that comes with it are currently the most important news for pretty much all markets. They affect the USD directly and also the rest of the currency pairs. In most cases, the market participants are not trading just before or during the news, but they patiently wait for the end of those events. This is what we are doing right now. Our expectations are that we will see big moves during the news and a possible rise to around 1,1400, followed by rejection afterwards. In case of a signal candle after the news with a long wick to the upside, we will look for potential entries. Before that we're just waiting and analyzing anything that happens. Be patient and good luck!
by ForexTrendline
26
Bonds Rally with the Stock SelloffBonds have gotten a lift off the selloff in stocks. An influx of risk off sentiment gave ZN a much needed lift back to the 128 handle. We had dipped in the very lows of the 127 handle, and were appearing to get ready to break into the 126's, when the fallout from stocks caused a notable risk off shift. We have broken through our level at 127'22. As predicted yesterday, we crossed the vacuum zone and touched 128'10, the first level in the 128 handle, before retracing slightly. At the time of this writing, we are hovering just under this level. We will see if the fallout in stocks continues today, in which case, we can expect higher levels, the next target being 128'24. The Kovach OBV has turned solidly bullish, likely a bit more than it would if this were just a simple relief rally. But if the selloff continues, 127'22 and 127'08 are the next targets to the down side.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
TNX - 10 YR T-Note Yield - Overblown?This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still look like crud, barely hanging on minus over 30% and still tired. Stocks looking real good in terms of quarterly money flows. This recent pull back looks like profit taking to me (maybe another 5% down and reverse but I think we are near the end of the correction. Oil also holding up and actually creeping higher, suggesting demand remains (for now); again, we know that the American consumer IN 2007 - FIFTEEN YEARS AGO - was able to support $100+ / barrel oil. Today we are tickling $86 / barrel. Fear sells. Listen to the data. God Bless. #GoChiefs!
TVC:TNX
by ChiefMacro
1
The market is overly complacent about interest rate riskMarkets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema. Prediction markets are now putting the odds of no corporate tax hike at about 88%: www.predictit.org In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries. And private investors are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. In other words, a supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise and bonds will fall. Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. If you have heavy long exposure, especially to tech and growth, now is probably a good time to put some hedges on. Markets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats. In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries, and they are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. A supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I had bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, meaning that rising rates cause prices to go down.) Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. Inflation Numbers Will Determine Where We Go from Here FOMC futures are currently forecasting that the Fed will hike rates 2-3 times by the end of next year, with a small chance of 4 rate hikes. As But as John Cochrane argues, FOMC futures have historically tended to be too hawkish: johnhcochrane.blogspot.com There's a lot of political incentive in Washington, D.C. to keep rates low, so the Fed almost certainly won't raise rates until inflation forces their hand. (Raising rates is primarily a tool to control inflation.) So keep an eye on the inflation numbers as we go forward from here. Inflation over the past decade has tended undershoot expectations, and many economists still believe that the current bout of inflation will prove to be transitory. So it may well turn out that we just get one or two rate hikes, and then inflation stabilizes and everything returns to normal. For now, I am expecting a short-term correction in both bonds and stocks, but a stabilization in the medium term. Shipping prices have been falling: And commodities prices look like they may start to come down as well: Hopefully these are early signs that inflation will be transitory after all. But the last reading on the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was an all-time high, so beware. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that there's definitely a limit to how far and fast we can push deficit spending before inflation kicks in. Pandemic deficit spending in 2020 caused high inflation in 2021. The question now is whether inflation will run away or normalize. This is an unprecedented situation, so nobody really knows. But a lot will depend on whether the Fed and Congress can practice some fiscal discipline, or at least convince markets that they will.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15
The bearish argument for lower Bond markets continues ....Bund 10Y Yields are back above zero for the first time in a couple of years. We have been viewing the bond markets as building major tops for quite some time and if we take a look at the EU 10Y yield rate, which has just breached zero, we can see that there is clear evidence that rates are now in a longer term up trend and have been for well over a year. Note that the definition of an up move is for higher reaction lows and higher reaction highs, and this has been the case since October 2020. From both a fundamental and technical perspective the bearish argument for lower Bond markets continues to build momentum. With Oil hitting multi-year highs amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply tightness, we are looking for further upside pressure on the energy markets, coupled with an upside surprise for the German ZEW Economic sentiment index yesterday (it jumped to 51.7 in January) the bond markets are suffering. In fact, technically, the EU 10Y yields have completed a base and now look ready to maintain the break above the 200-week ma at -0.18. They have been contained within a up channel extending back to 2020 and this comes in at approx. 0.07/0.08 and is likely to offer some decent resistance ahead of much tougher resistance at 0.28/0.30 (approximate lows that were seen throughout 2018). Longer term the market has completed a large base, which offers measurements much higher than this… Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:EU10Y
by The_STA
1