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Lagarde needs to place a lid on the Euro If there is a time for a currency to be relatively weak, it's during recessionary periods. A stronger currency entails a rougher time for goods and services to be exported out of the country as those exports are more expensive due to the stronger currency. This is currently the case for the Euro. From August last year to the latter part of 2020, the EUR/USD fluctuated between 1.16 and 1.19 before shooting past 1.20 at the end of November due to vaccine positivity. It sits comfortably above 1.20, consolidating between 1.205 and 1.233. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has a dilemma on her hands: how to contain the strength of the Euro due to positive sentiment while fighting deflation concerns? ECB needs more than interest rates Theoretically, it could be argued that the ECB has used up all their ammunition when it comes to monetary policy. With Interest Rates at 0% for the past four years, alongside the Coronavirus pulling on both sides, with lockdowns forcing businesses to close and consumers to save, a liquidity trap may be underway. The strength of the Euro also gives the ECB limited room to move rates lower. This harks back to the Bank of Japan's issue during the financial crisis, with analysts predicting disinflation, therefore boosting the Yen, thus boosting fears of inflation - a never-ending cycle. Only useful tool is asset purchases – however, it may have a side effect of boosting the Euro further The ECB has purchased over 1.85 Trillion Euros worth of assets during the wake of the Pandemic. However, we may see a situation unfold similar to that of the Fed and US Equities – where the Fed's unwavering support for the US economy has had the side effect of boosting US equities. Further purchases may see an influx of capital in European Equities, increasing the demand for the Euro. Since the strength of a currency is relative, some analysts predict the only way for the ECB to escape the cycle of a strengthening currency and deflationary concerns is through outperforming the Fed when it comes to asset purchases. Salman Ahmed, global head of Macro at Fidelity International, stated that "In currencies it's the relative game that matters," and that "You can argue that the ECB has been very aggressive in its policy, but has it been more aggressive than others? If the ECB wants to get the Euro down, they will have to outgun the Fed – there is no other way."
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Week ahead - Interest Rates, CPI's With the new strain of the Coronavirus causing concern across the world, many countries that continue to battle the Coronavirus hope that the vaccine gives them a head start before the strain does any more damage. This week will also see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th January US Local time. Here is your week ahead. All dates are in NZDT. Monday, 18th January – China's Retail Sales and GDP It seems like China was on their home run. Cases were initially squashed due to their strict lockdown earlier in 2020. The vaccine's advancement last year was the final factor in cementing China's success against the virus. However, a sharp outbreak in Nangong and Shijiazhuang shows the world that no matter how well your initial response is, only continuous and strict restrictions can keep the Coronavirus out of the community. Five days ago, a plot of land in Nangong, Hebei, laid flat. Now, it has become a 1500 room hospital for Covid-19 patients. This may be an overreaction by the Chinese government – however, they may just be preparing for the worst. This does give a sign of what the future may hold for countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, where cases are still at record highs. With that said, GDP and Retail Sales are predicted to increase on the back of a boost in the manufacturing sector alongside consumer spending the income they saved during the past lockdown. GDP is expected to rise to 6.1% in Q4, up from 4.9% in the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales are predicted to grow. 5.5% in the month of December, ahead of Chinese Near Year. Tuesday, 19th January – Germany's CPI figures The Coronavirus situation in many countries highlights the importance of implementing a strict lockdown and following it through. The benefits of a lockdown only work if community transmission is eliminated. However, many countries apart from a small handful tried to balance economic damage alongside the Coronavirus spread, which meant deescalating Coronavirus restrictions too early, rendering the lockdown useless. Germany is one of the nations that deescalated too quickly, causing massive spikes in their Coronavirus figures. Their total cases now stand at 2.04 Million, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently trying to rush in more stringent restrictions to dampen the virus's spread. However, the recent spike is unlikely to affect analysts' expectation of Germany's CPI,s expected to print at -0.7% for the month of December, the same as a month before. Wednesday, 20th January – United Kingdom's CPI Figures With just under 3.6 Million initial doses having been handed out to the UK public, the United Kingdom's dire situation looks like it's starting to make a turnaround. The daily Coronavirus rate has slowly decreased in the past couple of days - however, Britons do not seem to be adhering to lockdown and social distancing rules. The third lockdown in the past 12 months, UK citizens have been seen gathering around beaches with no mask on. The UK government is banking on the vaccine to help control the virus's spread, as hospital beds continue to be filled with Coronavirus patients. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.5%, up from 0.3% a month before. Wednesday 20th January – Bank of Canada's Interest Rate Decision Canada seems to be avoiding the limelight – however, their Coronavirus cases are continuing to skyrocket after a semi-successful, non-strict lockdown. However, like all countries that did not eliminate community transmission, their cases soared as the latter part of 2020 approached. Coronavirus cases in Canada surpassed 700,000 yesterday, which may well play into their interest rate decision this week ahead. With the second wave all but destroying any optimism in Canada's economic recovery, analysts predict a rate cut of less than 0.25%, currently at 0.25%. Andrew Kelvin, Chief Canada Strategist at TD Securities, stated that "The fact that the Bank of Canada has kept the door open to ( a rate cut) in the recent month hasn't gone unnoticed by markets." Thursday, 21st and Friday 22nd January – Australia's Employment Change and Retail Sales Month over Month The news many Australian citizens wanted to hear – "There are no remaining hotspot definitions," Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt stated at a press conference, with only one community transmission in the past couple of days. However, he warned that their not out of the woods yet, stating that "invevitably, there will be days of new cases. There will be days where there may be a requirement for Commonwealth hotspot definition to be reintroduced. But they'll be done on a the basis of that, and cases". This may indicate that Australia is finally able to start its economic recovery – alongside the implementation of the Trans-Atlantic bubble between Australia and New Zealand. Employment Change is expected to decrease from +90,000 in November to +50,000 in December. Thursday, 21st January – Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision Similar to Canada, Japan did not implement a proper lockdown. Instead, they opted for an increase in social distancing measures alongside confidence in their citizens to continue to wear face masks. Just like Canada, initial results were promising. However, as the year passed, it was evident that community transmission is inevitable if it was not thoroughly squashed out. Currently, Japan sits on 325,000 Coronavirus cases, with daily cases reaching an all-time high of 8,000 just a couple of days ago. With negative rates in Japan, monetary policy moves to the downside are rare as not to dig a hole the Bank of Japan can not come out of. Chances are, the BoJ will opt for other tools for yield control, such as asset purchases. However, analysts at Bloomberg Economics forecast the BoJ to keep rates as is not only this week ahead but for the whole year. Busy week ahead. Trade safe, and most importantly, stay safe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by BlackBull_Markets
INTEREST RATES - Tracking Minor Waves - Wave iv of Wave 5Just following on from my 10 bond yields idea back in November - Ideas linked below in related ideas. AriasWave just keeps getting better and better so now we have a stack of evidence telling us when the show will end. Below I will link ALL RELATED IDEAS mentioned in the video. THIS MARKET IS THE REASON WHY EVERYTHING IS THE WAY IT IS RIGHT NOW. But all that will change soon and so will the world. Not that it hasn't already. This is why I love the waves. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:TNX
by AriasWave
3
US 10 year T-note; Clearly a Continued SHORT!Despite appearances US T-Notes & Bills will absolutely obliterate US equity returns in this investment cycle! - The math being inescapable, despite all the wishful thinking in the world. Let's put an exact number on it; How does >+4% annually over US Equities sound?! (Yes, do check the math - as I'm sure of it!) Incidentally the U$D is bottoming here and it is a Massive LONG, for now. E.g. The decline in US T-Notes is likely to be slow and shallow.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Canadian banks offer high-yielding cushion in a correction.If you're worried that growth stocks (the tech and now healthcare stocks) are just ridiculously valued, then perhaps you should think about Canadian bank stocks as a potential cushion against a potential market correction. Earnings beat analyst expectations. Yields are in excess of 4%. Loan loss provisions will gradually find their way back into bank earnings as the economy recovers next year. The steepening yield curve also bodes well for future earnings growth.
NYSE:BMOLong
by malvinspooner
US INTEREST RATES - To Go Through The Roof. Here's The Evidence.Using the very latest advances in my AriasWave analysis I bring to you the breakdown of the US Bond Yields AKA INTEREST RATES. What do you think higher interest rates will do to the global economy? Leave your comments below. My analysis using the AriasWave methodology is improving at a rapid rate. Once you learn how to do proper research you will no longer rely on indicators or hunches. Get ready because things are about to get messy in the debt market. Please LIKE and FOLLOW to get notification of updates and future posts.
TVC:TNXLong
by AriasWave
8
Analysis: Earn 12% interest APY on stable coins and fiat on NEXOThe following is NOT financial advice: Still feels like mainstream is not aware of the interest savings options available these days. On the Nexo platform they recently raised their interest rate another 2% and you can now earn up to 12% compound interest in stable coins and fiat currencies and a whopping 8% on crypto assets. Paid out daily! The highest interest rates are paid if you let the interest payment be paid out in Nexo tokens and if you stake 10% of your total assets in Nexo tokens as well. Additionally Nexo pays out annually a dividend to their token holders annually. Hence a look at the Nexo token and if it makes sense to maximize your interest rate on Nexo using the Nexo token payout method. The short answer is it depends on your appetite for risk. Generally speaking if you want to maximize the interest earned it makes sense however you have a currency risk so to speak when you want to realize your gains in fiat currency. Looking at the graph which shows the Nexo token in Euro and on the bottom Bitcoin in Euro. One sees that just before the annual Nexo dividend payout the value in Nexo rises, but (of course) crashes just before and after the payout. Also to be considered is that if the crypto market / Bitcoin crashes Nexo is pulled down as well loosing interest. So if you want a more stable interest in e.g. your Euro savings just be happy with the 8% interest you are able to achieve. That's already fantastic in today's negative interest environment. If you follow the market closely and have a more mid-term (over years) horizon you can of course make use of the extra 4%.
N
by CarpeMomentum
2
Bitcoin going up: Where can I get a decent Return on Investment?Next week is election, there is uncertainty in markets all around. So why Bitcoin? What we know: People want to make a return on their investments/savings. Banking Interest rates are nearing 0. --> Why would I keep my money in a savings account that is losing to inflation. We keep pumping money into a stock market to keep it afloat. --> I have money invested in the market, but in general, stock prices seem overvalued from all the money printing. That leaves a few options, but my focus will be on Bitcoin and maybe some crypto that can be staked to earn a decent interest. Individual retailers like myself are increasingly getting involved in Bitcoin, but more important will be large companies/institutions. Companies are looking for a return on their investment as well. There is a new trend (still small for now) indicating that some of these companies are starting to turn to Bitcoin, a trend which I believe is likely to continue. What are your thoughts? What is your strategy to preserve wealth, no matter how big or small?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by zwickster
$EURUSD Weekly Outlook - To Summarize - ShortCoT has the commercial banks shorting the EURUSD still. Yeah, they added a few long positions this weel, but that was to get back to a level they wanted to add more shorts. They/ve been shorting since the height of the Pandemic swing. so for the Central banks to start being profitable, the price will have to be below 1.13500. If you draw a fib from the start of the EURUSD commercial shorts to the height of the commercial shorts, you can see it unfold in the fib extensions where price wants to reach. I personally like to see a bit of a larger retracement to the green box notated in this chart during the London/NY session before aggressively going short. Plus theirs divergence in the 10 year bonds between the currencies. As most are going up, the EUR is taking a dip as of recent. DIVERGENCE IN 10 YEAR BONDS Strong Bear tendencies this week. It will be London op and NY open to find the best setups to go short.
Short
by BodiesXWix
3
Bond Pong. Like Beer Pong With Less BloatingMost retail futures traders hang out in the stock indices, metals, or energy primarily. This makes sense as those markets move on a daily basis. But tonight, we'd like to make a case for looking at interest rates products, specifically the 30Y bond. As volatility picks up, the bonds haven't really kept pace and instead have stayed within defined ranges, making for a good case for some back-and-forth action. For the past several weeks, a well defined channel in the 30Y Bond (ZBZ2020) has formed with a one point range between 176 and 177. We're buyers at the bottom of the channel at 176 and sellers and the top at 177. It's a game of pong. What's constructive about this chart is that we have bumpers on either side of the channel in the form of a bid zone at 175 and an offer zone at 178. So we can scalp the channel and then look to add on a break or stop and wait for the level. Our current position (CurPos) is flat as price is in the middle of the channel. We'll update this idea on our next entry. Note: the ZN chart (10Y Note) looks similar and is 1/2 the size roughly on a per-tick-basis.
CBOT:ZBZ2020
by TDGonTView