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Intermarketanalysis

$BTC/USD Moon Trading & Technical AnalysisBlessing Moon Trading family, may you are in peace and having a great day full of profits and love! I am here as usual to help you to understand the dynamics behind Moon Trading strategy and to check how our entries are doing so far since the Full Moon. Entry: $40.600 SL: (usually) Trailing Stop of 5% (but this time I am not using) TP: considering the historical data that I shared in the last idea, it could easily be $57.800 Even after the fall all the currencies had with Evergrande's news, we are still a nicely almost %6 up. But, if you were using Trailing Stop of %5 and your SL wasn't triggered, you could have taken profits of %11 with the peak of the previous days around the Full Moon. If you were trading with leverage, multiply that for the number you were using. That easy is to be profitable with Moon Trading, without taking unncesary risks with your investment and always taking smart and carefully thought entries. How can I take a careful and smart entry using Moon Trading strategy? Well, if you see in this chart, the RSI was giving a buy signal in the daily chart. Every single time around the Full Moon day that I see this buy signal, always the price just keeps going up, even if there are some strong catalysts to bring the price down, as it happened the last couple of days with Evergrande in China. Should I only base my entries on RSI and the day of the Full Moon to open long positions? Well, I like also to use MACD, the historical data of the same Full Moon the last years, what is the expected performance of the price according to this, and also to keep a close eye on DXY and S&P 500 which give together a powerful information. Whenever you see the price of the American Dollar going down, you will see cryptocurrencies in general but Bitcoin in particular going up. If the stock market is still opened, it will impact even more, because whatever happens to S&P 500 usually affects in a great manner to cryptocurrencies. This could be due to the players that are present in both markets: hedge funds, institutional traders and many other reasons, such as algorithmic trading and goverments trying to manipulate the market, whales closing massive positions to take profits before they need to break even due to a high volatily in the market, etcetera. Once you see the RSI + MACD + daily volume giving you a buy signal, and the S&P 500 in a bullish trend, together with the DXY in a bearish trend, that is a great great time to take an entry. Also I consider personally that is very wise to keep an eye on the news around the macroeconomy and crypto related topics, which together usually operate as powerful catalysts for the prices. Did you take this entry? If not, according to all what was mentioned before, you are still in a great moment, just remember to do your own diligent and conscious research. This is not financial advice but for educational purposes only. May you have an extremely profitable 2 weeks between the Full and the New Moon the 6th of October. PS: remember that we have a Moon Trading channel (@MoonTradingTA) where I share a lot of news, tips, analysis and more, join us!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by nicolashuljich
2
🎓 EDU 7 of 20: Use the Power of Intermarket Analysis 🔀Intermarket analysis is an often neglected and overlooked type of analysis among traders. However, it's a powerful tool that can help you anticipate future price movements by following the performance of other, closely-related markets. Intermarket analysis refers to the analysis of other asset classes that can provide valuable and actionable insights into related markets, such as forex. In this part of our Intermarket analysis lesson, we'll be focusing on a specific asset class that has a very close connection with currencies: the sovereign bond market and yields. As you already know from my previous educational posts, currencies tend to follow interest rates. With the fall of the Bretton Woods agreement, currencies became freely-floating and capital started to move to places with the highest yields, which meant higher returns for investors. For example, if Australia has a 3% interest rate and Japan a 1% interest rate, investors could buy AUD to collect a 3% rate and short JPY by paying a 1% rate, leaving them with a net profit of 2%. This is how carry trade work, and the long AUD/JPY was one of the most popular carry trades given the large yield differential between Australia and Japan. That's why you need to follow yield differentials in your trading. The chart above shows the EUR/USD pair, and the 2-year yield differentials between 2-year German bonds and 2-year US bonds. Notice that we're using German bonds (also known as "bunds"), since Germany is the largest European economy. To add yield differentials to your chart, simply hit the "+" (compare) above your chart and type in "DE02Y - US02Y" with a space between the symbols. This also works for other currencies. Here is a list of symbols for the major currencies and their respective bond yields: US02Y, CA02Y, GB02Y, DE02Y, JP02Y, AU02Y, and NZ02Y. The currency should be self-explanatory from the symbols (note, we also the German 2-year yield when analyzing CHF.) Notice how the exchange rate closely followed the differentials in yields. When German yields rose compared to US yields, capital inflows to the euro area increased demand for EUR, which lifted the exchange rate. Similarly, when US yields rose compared to German yields, capital inflows to the US increased demand for USD, and the EUR/USD pair fell (meaning a stronger USD.) The dots you see on the chart are the individual bond yields (DE02Y and US02Y), because I like to have a picture of why the yield differential line is rising or falling (i.e., did the line fall because US yields are higher, or because German yields are lower?) We are using the 2-year yields, because they tend to closely follow the monetary policy stance of the respective central bank. In other words, when the ECB turns hawkish, the DE02Y tends to rise (signaling higher interest rate expectations), which in turn would push the yield differential line higher (and most likely the EUR/USD pair as well.) In the next part of Intermarket Analysis, we'll take a look at how other markets can impact currencies, like metals, commodities, and energy. Please hit the "Like" button and follow, so you won't miss future trade ideas and educational posts!
Education
by MujkanovicFX
Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms Before the S&P500Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset. Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the S&P just 5 weeks later, and in 2018 BTC bottomed just a few weeks before the S&P. Yet again, this relationship held during the 2020 COVID crash with BTC finding a bottom just two weeks before the S&P. Is the recent top formation in Bitcoin signaling potential weakness in the S&P500 that is yet to come? With breadth deteriorating across major indices, the almighty dollar (DXY) finding support and shaping up for a potential double bottom, and the least amount of bears on the AAII survey since Feb 2018, it's possible that the S&P is in for a deeper pullback, one that is well-deserved after such an incredible run from the COVID crash lows. One thing I'm looking for to see confirmation of a tactical top in the broader stock market is the Financials Sector (XLF). If we can't hold above that former major resistance, then we are likely in for a messy S&P over the summer. Remember, assets can correct in both price and time. We may just be in for some more sideways rather than an outright move down. If the S&P does begin to correct, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin may once again find a constructive bottom a few weeks before the S&P. I'll be on the lookout for all of the above and will keep this post updated. Till then, happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by CalmCapital
Dick’s Sporting Is RunningDick’s Sporting Goods has been running. Now, after a brief pause, it may be ready to keep moving. The first interesting pattern on the daily chart is the price gap on May 26, which DKS recently tested (and partially filled). That resulted from a blowout quarterly report, with same-store sales up 115 percent. Notice how price came down to test and hold the May 10 peak and the rising trendline that began in December. DKS also came within $0.44 of testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) that session, but couldn’t even get that low. A mix of powerful forces are fueling the rally. Like many traditional retailers, DKS was left for dead even before the pandemic. But now it’s rebuilding its business around experiences and benefiting as the economy reopens. There’s also a short squeeze underway. Something else happened with the intermarket trends: The SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF just crossed above its 50-day SMA. This suggests the broader consumer discretionary sector (which includes DKS) is coming to life as the summer heats up. Of course, summer is followed by-back-to-school, which is followed by Black Friday and Christmas. That timeline, combined with an improving economy, could keep sentiment focused on traditional retailers for several more months. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NYSE:DKSLong
by TradeStation
1
So you wanna SHORT NZD/JPY? Here is why it could get tricky!Hey tradomaniacs, since Jerome Powell stated that "there is no inflation" the market keeps betting against the FED and tries to poke Jeromes nerves with rising YIELDs. This is obviously bad for equities, because higher returns provides a great alternative to Stocks, which is causing a strenght for the US-Dollar. So why could a short NZD/JPY be choppy? NZD/USD currently reacts so sensitive because stocks are falling. NZD/USD is a risk-on-currency and since correlations have changed in the market almost all majors against USD having very huge standard deviations. This is basically because the economy improves when US-DOLLAR falls, due to the fact that the provided liquidity, or inflation, boost consume and investments -> Higher grow expectations -> Good for stocks. Now we got these correlations in the market: YIELDS and US-DOLLAR rise -> Equities fall Equities fall -> NZD falls YIELDS rise -> JPY falls When NZD and JPY both tend to fall due to the current correlations, NZD/JPY could be the worst NZD-pair to short, or generally to trade. The best JPY-Pair to trade is currently USD/JPY, as DXY moves up while JPY falls as long as the inflation-worries continues. Non the less, we could see stop-losses getting triggered and so a fall of NZD/JPY. Compare NZD/USD to NZD/JPY, and you will se what I mean. :-) LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
Short
by Trading2ez
6
Gold Standard or No Gold Standard that’s a question!President Nixon in 1971 ended the practice of allowing foreign governments to exchange US dollars for US gold.(End of Gold Standard) So far, US Dollar tries to survive, but it fails anytime because we are in Bearish grand super cycle, after gold standard ended. As a little example, we see how gold compensate in the opposite direction of DXY! But the real deal is that all the fiat currencies and precious metals are losing the ground to Bitcoin. The main reason for that is not the intrinsic value of Bitcoin, but is that Bitcoin offers cheaper transactions..! Which is the main purpose of inventing currencies in the first place! Moshkelgosha
TVC:DXYShort
by Moshkelgosha
4
S&P 500 Holding a TrendlineMonday’s hard selloff was a jarring start to the New Year, but it didn’t do a lot of technical damage. Most importantly, the index held two levels. First, its low of 3663 matched a rising trendline in place since mid-November. (It began with the first pullback after the breakout to new highs.) Second, SPX managed to close slightly above 3700. While this level has no clear significance on the chart, it’s a potentially important psychological level. Some intermarket conditions are supportive of the S&P 500. First, bond prices remain under pressure. More downside in bonds would lift yields and potentially help financials and cyclicals. Second, oil is rallying and today pushed above $50 a barrel for the first time in 10 months. The sector mix also has a bullish bent because cyclical and “risk-on” groups are gaining (especially energy, materials and industrials). Meanwhile safe havens like utilities and consumer staples are down. That reflects confidence in the economic rebound. (Today’s ISM manufacturing report crushed estimates and jobless claims have recently been better than feared.) Despite these positives, it’s important to recognize that yesterday’s drop created a large bearish engulfing candle on SPX (with high volume). Even if it doesn’t cause a reversal, this pattern could hold the broader market in check for several weeks. More rotation could be in store, with investors shifting away from large growth names in favor of smaller cyclicals. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
3
Bullish Flag On Gold - New Highs In 2021?Low interest rates and QE from central banks caused strong bullish trend across different assets. But what we see for the last few months is pullback on gold and US bonds, while stocks are printing new highs due to covid-19 vaccine that brings back optimism for move” back to normal life and economy” in 2021. However, stocks are very high and they may face a retracement next year, maybe even based on “buy the rumour sell the news impact”. In such case investors may look to hide in bonds or metals. From a technical point of view we see US Treasurys bullish on a weekly scale, and they are unfolding five waves up from 2018 low where 5th wave is still missing as shown on 10 year US notes chart. If you are familiar with Elliott Waves, then you know that impulses need to be completed with five waves so new highs can be in the cards in 2021. In fact, current price action since March on the 10 year is slow and sideways, so based on personality and characteristics we believe it’s corrective wave 4. If we are correct, then more upside on 10 year is also going to be supportive for gold that may breakout of a bullish flag. Some traders and investors may also look at TLT here around current trendline support. Happy holidays and all the best in 2021. Trade well! GH
CBOT:ZN1!
by ew-forecast
1